Was 2018 Wimbledon SF the most important match in Djokovic’s career?

[SABRvolley]

I always go back to this match as the turning point for Djokovic becoming the eventual GOAT.

He had 2 years of pretty bad form (by his standards) before this tournament. Had he lost this match against Nadal, would he still have ended up as the GOAT?

I always wonder what would have happened had he lost this match against Nadal and if he would still have gone on a rampage like he did from 2018-2023. Meanwhile Nadal would have gone on to win his 3rd Wimbledon and would have been the clear favorite for USO 2018 as well. The GOAT race would have clearly been in Nadal’s favor.

I still think he could have won a few slams but nowhere near 24 had he lost this match, and Nadal would have ended up with the most GS titles.

What do you think?

 

[nolefam_2024]

No

 

[socallefty]

Djokovic won the Slam race and the Masters race and the #1 race because he is the better player who has been able to play at a higher level for longer in his career because he does careful dieting and takes care of his body with an insane level of detail. One match or one Slam wouldn’t have changed the outcome.

Nadal and others were saying that Djokovic was back to a high level during the FO already and so he would have continued to have a great 2H in 2018 even if he had lost that match. He was just back to his high level playing with confidence and only ATGs would have beat him.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Djokovic won the Slam race and the Masters race and the #1 race because he is the better player who has been able to play at a higher level for longer in his career because he does careful dieting and takes care of his body with an insane level of detail. One match or one Slam wouldn’t have changed the outcome.

Nadal and others were saying that Djokovic was back to a high level during the FO already and so he would have continued to have a great 2H in 2018 even if he had lost that match. He was just back to his high level playing with confidence and only ATGs would have beat him.

I said he would win usopen 2018 when his form was returning to his best

Wimbledon or not, Nole was back. And when Nole was on, literally no one could match him, proven by 2 years between 14 and 16.

This is a situation where Djokovic is road roller and rest of the atp is just going to get crushed no matter what happens in Wimbledon. It was bound to happen.

Simply saying , 2015 to 16 the guy made ncygs. Only his health and head was stopping him after that.

 

[MeatTornado]

Wimbledon 2018 wasn't some magical turning point. He was just finally healthy and in-form again. If he lost that match he still likely wins the USO a few months later.

His 2 year spiral was mostly due to his elbow. Once he finally got the surgery he was putting off it all came back together. He came back too quick in the spring and was awful, but you could see the improvement by the clay season, and then the ultimate payoff during the grass. Getting back on top was inevitable at that point. Hell, even if he lost to Rafa and didn't have the confidence to win the USO, the 2nd half of his 2018 would still be something great to build on compared to 2017, which would probably lead to a good off-season where he comes back fresh and ready to reclaim Australia in 2019.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Wimbledon 2018 wasn't some magical turning point. He was just finally healthy and in-form again. If he lost that match he still likely wins the USO a few months later.

His 2 year spiral was mostly due to his elbow. Once he finally got the surgery he was putting off it all came back together. He came back too quick in the spring and was awful, but you could see the improvement by the clay season, and then the ultimate payoff during the grass. Getting back on top was inevitable at that point. Hell, even if he lost to Rafa and didn't have the confidence to win the USO, the 2nd half of his 2018 would still be something great to build on compared to 2017, which would probably lead to a good off-season where he comes back fresh and ready to reclaim Australia in 2019.

He was very angry losing in qf of rg. Because he thought he was ready and could realistically go to final. Beating Nadal would be tough but he said verbatim that he wanted to make the final after beating Verdasco. He was close to his best at rg. In hindsight, great win for ceccinato.

 

[welcome2petrkordaland]

No, but definitely a match whose circumstances will always warrant a huge asterisk given the advantage he got.

The 2-day affair itself when considered in isolation was an incredible and unforgettable match. Djoko and Rafa went at each other to the end, but Djoko came though due to clutch and supreme serving.

Given both how great Djoko was (is?) and how inferior competition from the field was from 2017-2023 when he won 12 outta his 24, there’s no doubt Djokovic would’ve won many more majors, even if the match were played in one day or plays properly outdoors with Nadal winning, as experts believe.

Amazing how Wimbledon’s traditions, curfews, rules, etc. have played such a hand in affecting results.

But, that’s a rock hard NO to OP.

 

[nolefam_2024]

No, but definitely a match whose circumstances will always warrant a huge asterisk given the advantage he got.

The 2-day affair itself when considered in isolation was an incredible and unforgettable match. Djoko and Rafa went at each other to the end, but Djoko came though due to clutch and supreme serving.

Given both how great Djoko was (is?) and how inferior competition from the field was from 2017-2023 when he won 12 outta his 24, there’s no doubt Djokovic would’ve won many more majors, even if the match were played in one day or plays properly outdoors with Nadal winning, as experts believe.

Amazing how Wimbledon’s traditions, curfews, rules, etc. have played such a hand in affecting results.

But, that’s a rock hard NO to OP.

Only losers of that match fans think Nadal was shortchanged.

 

[welcome2petrkordaland]

Only losers of that match fans think Nadal was shortchanged.

Is Wimbledon an outdoor or indoor tournament? Why didn’t your supremely confident so-called “GOAT” who won half of his slams from 2018-2023 (12 OUT OF 24!!!) choose to play indoors that next day on Saturday lol? Experts and non-Djoko freaks know the answers. And last question: Do you really think Djoko hits 20 something aces outdoors lol? Be objective or forever life in your little “Djoko is GOAT and the Lost Gen and Next Gen. competition was just fine thank you very much” silo lmao.

 

[welcome2petrkordaland]

“He was close to his best at rg. In hindsight, great win for ceccinato.”

You are short-changing Djokovic here in a big way. Cecchinato played great to beat Djoko but lost to Thiem handily in semi. Djoko’s clay level in 19-23 was much better.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Wimbledon 2018 wasn't some magical turning point. He was just finally healthy and in-form again. If he lost that match he still likely wins the USO a few months later.

His 2 year spiral was mostly due to his elbow. Once he finally got the surgery he was putting off it all came back together. He came back too quick in the spring and was awful, but you could see the improvement by the clay season, and then the ultimate payoff during the grass. Getting back on top was inevitable at that point. Hell, even if he lost to Rafa and didn't have the confidence to win the USO, the 2nd half of his 2018 would still be something great to build on compared to 2017, which would probably lead to a good off-season where he comes back fresh and ready to reclaim Australia in 2019.

This. I’ve seen so many people say that RAFA not sealing the deal “let the genie out of the bottle” which allowed Joker to go on a tear again. But it was plain as day that Joker had gotten his groove back by then. From 2019-present he hasn’t played a better match at Wimby since the 18 SF. Had he lost that match it would have been very similar to when RAFA lost the 2017 AO F. Despite that loss he went to win multiple GS and finish YE#1 multiple times.

 

[MeatTornado]

Had he lost that match it would have been very similar to when RAFA lost the 2017 AO F.

Perfect comparison.

It's not like Rafa stumbled around dejected for the rest of his career after missing his chance to get back on top. He couldn't have possibly played better at the next slam. In an alternate reality where he wins that AO, some would probably be asking if he still would've won RG so easily if he lost to Fed in January, which we know is nonsense.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Perfect comparison.

It's not like Rafa stumbled around dejected for the rest of his career after missing his chance to get back on top. He couldn't have possibly played better at the next slam. In an alternate reality where he wins that AO, some would probably be asking if he still would've won RG so easily if he lost to Fed in January, which we know is nonsense.

Well said
Anyway I wish Nadal won Wimby 2018, he was CRISPY AFFFFF

 

[Turning Pro]

Well said
Anyway I wish Nadal won Wimby 2018, he was CRISPY AFFFFF

Outdoor that summer.

Nadal in 4.

Indoor: The worst and most slippery indoor conditions for Nadal and Noles BEST conditions.

 

[RS]

Even before it he was still top 5 of all time so but it helped him get a 2nd wind so it depends on how you look at it.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Outdoor that summer.

Nadal in 4.

How Indoor: The worst and most slippery indoor conditions for Nadal and Noles BEST conditions.

Novak would have been COOKED if that roof was open lol. Nadal was tearing him up as it is with it closed, ball out there JUMPING

 

[Djokovic2011]

Novak would have been COOKED if that roof was open lol. Nadal was tearing him up as it is with it closed, ball out there JUMPING

You're probably right MN. After all Nadal tore him up the last time they played outdoors on grass so Djokovic was indeed very lucky that day. No way would it have been possible for him to win without the roof on.

 

[Biotic]

One of the most satisfying wins ever.

Novak would have been COOKED if that roof was open lol. Nadal was tearing him up as it is with it closed, ball out there JUMPING

One trick pony was going down no matter what.

 

[MichaelNadal]

One of the most satisfying wins ever.


One trick pony was going down no matter what.

I would feel the exact same way, Nadal was HITTING THAT BALL

 

[weakera]

It was a great and dramatic match. Unfortunately it is marred by the roof situation, but still great drama.

 

[jl809]

He would have won the USO anyway tbh, he was already “back” by the Queens final and wouldn’t have lost to anyone in Cincy too. People talk about his “CoNFiDeNcE” like he didn’t immediately lose to Loserpas in Canada after winning Wim 18. The process is never binary like that

The real significance of the Wim 18 roofgate is that it essentially won him 2 Wimbledons, not 1, as there is no way he would have got through Nadal and Federer B2B in 2019, and they would have been 1 and 2 seeds had Nadal won. But again, he still would have won Wimbledon 21 and 22 anyway, almost certainly still gets 5 Wimbledons, 3 RGs, 4 USOs, M1000 sweep, #1 weeks etc… basically the same legacy

 

[JasonZ]

yes, this was his most crucial win.

 

[MichaelNadal]

King Rafa deserved 3 Wimbledons

 

[Born_to_slice]

Yeah, pretty high on the list of most important matches. If everything else stayed the same, losing that match would leave him and Nadal at 23 slams each.

 

[Hitman]

The difference on who between Djokovic and Nadal would have 24 and 22 slams hinges on two very key points.

Both times in the decisive third set of both W 2018 and RG 2021, Nadal had a set point, and should he win it, he wins the match, and could end up winning the slam race.

Both times, when set point down, Djokovic showed balls of steel when he delivered to insane drop shot winners that Nadal was unable to get to. He misses those, he loses those third sets and probably both matches.

And Nadal ends up with 24 slams, and Djokovic gets 22, if everything else stayed the same.

This is why Djokovic is the most clutch player of all time, do that not once, but twice against Nadal, and steal those sets was on another level.

 

[Hitman]

King Rafa deserved 3 Wimbledons

Honestly speaking, Nadal was good for at least 4 Wimbledon titles, the same way Federer and Djokovic were good for more RG titles. This is what happens though when alphas fight each other.

 

[jl809]

The difference on who between Djokovic would have 24 and 22 slams hinges on two very key points.

Both times in the decisive third set of both W 2018 and RG 2021, Nadal had a set point, and should he win it, he wins the match, and could end up winning the slam race.

Both times, when set point down, Djokovic showed balls of steel when he delivered to insane drop shot winners that Nadal was unable to get to. He misses those, he loses those third sets and probably both matches.

And Nadal ends up with 24 slams, and Djokovic gets 22, if everything else stayed the same.

This is why Djokovic is the most clutch player of all time, do that not once, but twice against Nadal, and steal those sets was on another level.

Wasn’t the insane drop shot winner in Wim 18 by Nadal when he was MP down? Djoker had the infamous CC pass down BP

 

[MichaelNadal]

Honestly speaking, Nadal was good for at least 4 Wimbledon titles, the same way Federer and Djokovic were good for more RG titles. This is what happens though when alphas fight each other.

Exactly, it sucks but they all literally happened to play the GOAT of a surface in his peak, at the same time, craziness.

 

[Hitman]

Wasn’t the insane drop shot winner in Wim 18 by Nadal when he was MP down? Djoker had the infamous CC pass down BP

Go look at the third set when Nadal had set point and look what Djokovic does. It is not talked about, but Djokovic practically stole that set from Nadal.

 

[Hitman]

Exactly, it sucks but they all literally happened to play the GOAT of a surface in his peak, at the same time, craziness.

Yep, that is the truth. Nadal stopped both from racking up RG titles, also....

Nadal probably has about four or five AO titles also, no one else was stopping him in 2012, 2017 and 2019, on top of all those Wimbledon titles, and possibly also has USO open era record of 5 USO titles also...

They all beat the hell out of each other over and over again. All three actually had the playing capacity to win more, they just kept running into each other. This is why I often just see them as a single unit, with 66 slams.

 

[Linelicker]

Go look at the third set when Nadal had set point and look what Djokovic does. It is not talked about, but Djokovic practically stole that set from Nadal.

Djokovic is a burglar, like that Hobbit

 

[Hitman]

@jl809

Here it is.

TWICE Djokovic did this to Nadal in very key matches when set point down in the crucial third set which decide the outcome of the match. He misses these, Nadal is the one who takes the 2-1 lead and likely wins both matches, W 2018 and RG 2021 and wins the slam race potentially.

 

[StrongRule]

Nothing would have changed. Djokovic would still vulture tons of slams against the likes of Tsitsipas and Ruud, him not winning 1-2 more slams wouldn't make a difference at the end. This era is just way too weak. And I'm pretty sure the vulturing hasn't ended yet.

 

[jl809]

Go look at the third set when Nadal had set point and look what Djokovic does. It is not talked about, but Djokovic practically stole that set from Nadal.

Got you. Just watched the whole thing back, Djoker’s was excellent. Also there were 4 droppers within the space of 6 or 7 points lol. All of them won the point immediately for the person who hit them. If anything Nadal was equally clutch with them to even get the SPs in the first place - Nadal hits one as a winner at 3-5 down, then another 5-5 after a 20 shot rally, then Djoker hits one SP down at 7-6, then Nadal hits one at 7-7. This is why I think Ned fans shouldn’t complain, he had to do crazy stuff to even get the chances

Also… the returning was poor in that TB, totally forgot that. It starts at 4-2 to Djoker with Djoker getting a Nadal 2nd serve (body serve) and thrashing it halfway up the net. Then at 5-4 to Djoker, Djoker gets a hittable body serve, sends it way long. On both of Nadal’s SPs where Djoker is serving, Nadal gets 2 makeable serves, gets a racket comfortably on both, but sends the ball wide or long. At 8-8, Nadal hits a 2nd serve return long

 

[Hitman]

Got you. Just watched the whole thing back, Djoker’s was excellent. Also there were 4 droppers within the space of 6 or 7 points lol. All of them won the point immediately for the person who hit them. If anything Nadal was equally clutch with them to even get the SPs in the first place - Nadal hits one as a winner at 3-5 down, then another 5-5 after a 20 shot rally, then Djoker hits one at 7-6, then Nadal hits one at 7-7. This is why I think Ned fans shouldn’t complain, he had to do crazy stuff to even get the chances

Also… the returning was poor in that TB, totally forgot that. It starts at 4-2 to Djoker with Djoker getting a Nadal 2nd serve (body serve) and thrashing it halfway up the net. Then at 5-4 to Djoker, Djoker gets a hittable body serve, sends it way long. On both of Nadal’s SPs where Djoker is serving, Nadal gets 2 makeable serves, gets a racket comfortably on both, but sends the ball wide or long. At 8-8, Nadal hits a 2nd serve return long

Oh, I know Nadal was playing fantastic, hence why I said that dropshot winner, had Djokovic missed it, he likely loses the match in four sets.

In regards to some of the poor returning, I think a lot of that had to do with both also being under a lot of tension, because they both knew the match was going to stop, and whoever won that tie break was going to have the BIG edge heading into the next day, which to me makes those clutch winners even more spectacular, because they were both feeling it.

Djokovic uses this same tactic at RG 2021 when he was serving SP down in that titanic 3 set, which basically decided the outcome of that match. That for me is how close Nadal was to probably winning the slam race. Check this out.

 

[MichaelNadal]

@jl809

Here it is.

TWICE Djokovic did this to Nadal in very key matches when set point down in the crucial third set which decide the outcome of the match. He misses these, Nadal is the one who takes the 2-1 lead and likely wins both matches, W 2018 and RG 2021 and wins the slam race potentially.

Rafa messed up here by hitting a first serve at only 109 into the body. I think body was the right play but it needed to be in the 120's

 

[jl809]

Oh, I know Nadal was playing fantastic, hence why I said that dropshot winner, had Djokovic missed it, he likely loses the match in four sets.

In regards to some of the poor returning, I think a lot of that had to do with both also being under a lot of tension, because they both knew the match was going to stop, and whoever won that tie break was going to have the BIG edge heading into the next day, which to me makes those clutch winners even more spectacular, because they were both feeling it.

Djokovic uses this same tactic at RG 2021 when he was serving SP down in that titanic 3 set, which basically decided the outcome of that match. That for me is how close Nadal was to probably winning the slam race. Check this out.

Yeah the dropper at RG 21 is imo one of the most ballsy things he’s EVER done, because his drop shot had been suffering so much up to that point. With added context it gains even more credit

 

[Berrettini_Fan]

The only thing 2018 Wimbledon SF changes is that Nadal ends up tied with Djokovic at 23 slams apiece.

Although had he won, would Nadal have received the #1 seed in 2019? Which would then put Djokovic in the same half as Federer? Would that have changed anything?

 

[Hitman]

Rafa messed up here by hitting a first serve at only 109 into the body. I think body was the right play but it needed to be in the 120's

The thing is, the match was played at such a high level, that even the slightest misstep was going to cost immensely at that stage. He was playing so good for so long, but just a little drop off and it probably cost him the match and the title.

 

[Hitman]

Yeah the dropper at RG 21 is imo one of the most ballsy things he’s EVER done, because his drop shot had been suffering so much up to that point. With added context it gains even more credit

That is what made Djokovic who he is, the sheer audacity he showed at key points of very critical matches.

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

you definitely managed to capture the subtle thrill of watching djokovic play tennis...

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Nothing would have changed. Djokovic would still vulture tons of slams against the likes of Tsitsipas and Ruud, him not winning 1-2 more slams wouldn't make a difference at the end. This era is just way too weak. And I'm pretty sure the vulturing hasn't ended yet.

Well, the difference in slams between them is 2 slams, so 1-2 slams makes tons of difference, especially if they were facing each other because although it's one slam it would mean a difference of two.

 

[Tennfan123]

No.
it was RG final 2016.
Djokovic would have got to 20 plus anyway. His being the only one to win 4 slams in a row is huge.

 

[ND-13]

I wish Djokovic won more pre 2018.

While that win in Wimb 2018 was epic, Unfortunately we have to live with the fact that overall slam count included over 50% majors in the period from 2018-23

 

[roysid]

I always go back to this match as the turning point for Djokovic becoming the eventual GOAT.

He had 2 years of pretty bad form (by his standards) before this tournament. Had he lost this match against Nadal, would he still have ended up as the GOAT?

I always wonder what would have happened had he lost this match against Nadal and if he would still have gone on a rampage like he did from 2018-2023. Meanwhile Nadal would have gone on to win his 3rd Wimbledon and would have been the clear favorite for USO 2018 as well. The GOAT race would have clearly been in Nadal’s favor.

I still think he could have won a few slams but nowhere near 24 had he lost this match, and Nadal would have ended up with the most GS titles.

What do you think?

This match is one of the most important match in his career , thats for sure. Because he was struggling for past 2 years and couldn't win queens even after having cp.

Had he lost it would have taken more time for the belief to come back, thats for sure.

Whether roof helped him win. Yes definitely. Some luck is always required. But still he had to come back from 15-40 hole, virtual mp and made that perefct passing shot.

 

[Biotic]

I would feel the exact same way, Nadal was HITTING THAT BALL

Both were inspired af. It was such a special match, I could honestly feel it's gonna be epic as I was watching the 1st set.

 

[Pheasant]

Djokovic has too many clutch matches to label one of them. This guy is Mr. Clutch. He's done this so many times. I'd argue that his most impressive slam was coming back from 2-0 twice at the French Open. That tourney, especially given his age, was absolutely ridiculous. That's be different on a fast surface like Wimbledon. But the old man out-grinded two much younger opponents after falling down 2-0 on the slowest surface. Of course, there's the abdominal tear vs Fritz a few years back. He was down and out, only to rise from the dead to bag the titIe. And then, there's 40-15 with double match point on Fed's serve at the 2011 USO semi. Had Fed held on, then it's very possible that this is a 2-slam swing right there. I now think that Fed loses in 5 to Nadal(blows 40-0 triple championship point).

But as a I said earlier, there are so many instances where he was down and out, that I can't pick one of them. This sport is the game of millimeters. The difference among the greats is absolutely miniscule. Winning a couple of key points during the right times makes all of the different. What's the different in points between Fed and Djoker in their HTH? Isn't it something like 50.2-49.8 in favor of Djoker? That margin is miniscule. However, Djoker was clearly a million times more clutch. Djoker is clutch like Tiger Woods was, but minus the addictions and mental baggage. Tiger without those mental demons like bags 22-23 slam titles. Federer is like Jack Nicklaus.

 

[Aabye5]

I always go back to this match as the turning point for Djokovic becoming the eventual GOAT.

He had 2 years of pretty bad form (by his standards) before this tournament. Had he lost this match against Nadal, would he still have ended up as the GOAT?

I always wonder what would have happened had he lost this match against Nadal and if he would still have gone on a rampage like he did from 2018-2023. Meanwhile Nadal would have gone on to win his 3rd Wimbledon and would have been the clear favorite for USO 2018 as well. The GOAT race would have clearly been in Nadal’s favor.

I still think he could have won a few slams but nowhere near 24 had he lost this match, and Nadal would have ended up with the most GS titles.

What do you think?

Interesting analysis, but I think the 2012 AO final, for example, was far more influential on the overall Slam race.

 

[Hitman]

Djokovic has too many clutch matches to label one of them. This guy is Mr. Clutch. He's done this so many times. I'd argue that his most impressive slam was coming back from 2-0 twice at the French Open. That tourney, especially given his age, was absolutely ridiculous. That's be different on a fast surface like Wimbledon. But the old man out-grinded two much younger opponents after falling down 2-0 on the slowest surface. Of course, there's the abdominal tear vs Fritz a few years back. He was down and out, only to rise from the dead to bag the titIe. And then, there's 40-15 with double match point on Fed's serve at the 2011 USO semi. Had Fed held on, then it's very possible that this is a 2-slam swing right there. I now think that Fed loses in 5 to Nadal(blows 40-0 triple championship point).

But as a I said earlier, there are so many instances where he was down and out, that I can't pick one of them. This sport is the game of millimeters. The difference among the greats is absolutely miniscule. Winning a couple of key points during the right times makes all of the different. What's the different in points between Fed and Djoker in their HTH? Isn't it something like 50.2-49.8 in favor of Djoker? That margin is miniscule. However, Djoker was clearly a million times more clutch. Djoker is clutch like Tiger Woods was, but minus the addictions and mental baggage. Tiger without those mental demons like bags 22-23 slam titles. Federer is like Jack Nicklaus.

Well said, Djokovic's clutchness is on another level, he just kept doing it again and again and again.

The big 3 are all incredible GOAT tier talents, it was quite the ride we have all been on.

 

[inflation_era]

Nah, this match had little do with it. Novak achieved the most because of the weak era, he got lucky.