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If we assume Djokovic's main career to be from 2011 - 2023 (right when he hit his prime and to when Sincaraz took over) then we see that at RG Djokovic has had 0 early upsets before the quarterfinals whereas at Wimbledon he has suffered a 3rd round upset in 2016 to Querrey.
If we count up "opportunities to win the title" which adds up together slam titles and slam finals, we see Djokovic has 7 opportunities at RG versus 9 opportunities at Wimbledon. However, at Wimbledon, Djokovic's main rival was Federer (who only won 2 Wimbledon titles from Djokovic's 2011 season to his retirement, whereas Nadal was Djokovic's main rival at RG, whose track record at RG is unmistakable. Excluding Djokovic and Nadal meetings in RG finals, the number of times Djokovic lost to Nadal before the final numbers up to a total of 6 times. Now 3 of those were during Djokovic's main career so Djokovic (who was the 2nd best clay courter during his prime) would have had a total of 10 opportunities at RG if not for Nadal shutting him down (who is more like a force of nature at that tournament than any normal opponent and should honestly be considered an anomaly). Does this mean Djokovic's 2nd best surface is clay?
Now many might point to Djokovic's lowest surface win rate being clay (roughly 80%) compared to a considerably larger 85% win rate on grass. But this can be attributed to several logical factors. On clay, Djokovic faced Nadal, who constantly held the big titles on a chokehold, and Djokovic tended to avoid attending smaller clay titles while attending the larger ones that would inevitably have him meet Nadal (6 small clay titles, 1 of which was at Geneva just to secure title #100 and 3 of which were at Belgrade which he wanted to attend out of patriotism).
In fact, Djokovic has a higher win rate on grass than on his best surface, hard court, which is approximately 84%. So clearly win rates do not even mean that much. If anything the lower win rate on hard would indicate an incredibly weak grass competition that he faced.
So, is Djokovic actually better on clay?
If we count up "opportunities to win the title" which adds up together slam titles and slam finals, we see Djokovic has 7 opportunities at RG versus 9 opportunities at Wimbledon. However, at Wimbledon, Djokovic's main rival was Federer (who only won 2 Wimbledon titles from Djokovic's 2011 season to his retirement, whereas Nadal was Djokovic's main rival at RG, whose track record at RG is unmistakable. Excluding Djokovic and Nadal meetings in RG finals, the number of times Djokovic lost to Nadal before the final numbers up to a total of 6 times. Now 3 of those were during Djokovic's main career so Djokovic (who was the 2nd best clay courter during his prime) would have had a total of 10 opportunities at RG if not for Nadal shutting him down (who is more like a force of nature at that tournament than any normal opponent and should honestly be considered an anomaly). Does this mean Djokovic's 2nd best surface is clay?
Now many might point to Djokovic's lowest surface win rate being clay (roughly 80%) compared to a considerably larger 85% win rate on grass. But this can be attributed to several logical factors. On clay, Djokovic faced Nadal, who constantly held the big titles on a chokehold, and Djokovic tended to avoid attending smaller clay titles while attending the larger ones that would inevitably have him meet Nadal (6 small clay titles, 1 of which was at Geneva just to secure title #100 and 3 of which were at Belgrade which he wanted to attend out of patriotism).
In fact, Djokovic has a higher win rate on grass than on his best surface, hard court, which is approximately 84%. So clearly win rates do not even mean that much. If anything the lower win rate on hard would indicate an incredibly weak grass competition that he faced.
So, is Djokovic actually better on clay?