Was Federer’s inability to convert break points mental or technical ?

Otacon

Otacon

Hall of Fame
We’ve talked a lot about Federer’s improved backhand this year. But in my mind, much of Federer's success in 2017, especially against Nadal, came from his new approach to the backhand return. Of course, both are related but Fed managed to stop run-around Rafa from taking charge with his forehand by abandoning the slice. He’s now hitting the ball earlier on the return, with the average contact point well inside the baseline.
When we look back, the reality is that Federer's one-handed backhand was solid enough to offer him countless break point chances against Nadal and Djokovic in most of their big matches.
However, his break point conversion % was dreadful until this year. Even during his heyday, Federer was winning fewer break points than he should have been.

The most striking examples to me are :

- 2007 RG final with 6% BP converted (1/17)
- 2008 Wimbledin final with 8% BP converted (1/13)
- 2015 Wimbledon final with 14% BP converted (1/7)
- 2015 USO final with 17% BP converted (4/23)

These matches are close ones as neither player has won more than 53% of points.


Charlie Rose: Is it a advantage in the rivalry that Rafa is a southpaw ?
John McEnroe: Well, as a southpaw speaking, I say yes. Because all these righties always complain about the lefties having an edge. And I'm like, why the hell do we have an edge ? You have the same edge on the deuce court, so get up before you get down. And then there won't be as much pressure if you are facing break point. And to me, if you are a professional, you should be able to deal with these spins in a couple of games. Yeah, the lefties serve and the slice is going to pull away from you, and you've got to -- you've got to make an adjustment. But these guys have been doing it since they were kids. So I don't think it should be a big edge. But if it is in the players' head, it is. And I noticed with Roger, even at Wimbledon (2007), I was really surprised, because Nadal was really hurting him with that slice serve out wide. And I was really surprised that Roger didn't move in and cut that off, force him to serve more balls up the middle and to take that earlier. And that is exactly what I think he needs to do on clay courts. You don't let yourself get pulled off the court. Then you are in big trouble against a guy like Nadal. He is going to run around that backhand, hit an inside-out forehand, jerk you to the other side of the court. Then you are on the run. That's not a winning proposition at all. So he has got to blunt that. And I think that so far he hasn't -- it surprised me that he hasn't worked. Maybe if there is one thing I would suggest Roger work on is that transition from that return, taking it a little earlier -- and why am I even saying this ? This guy has got 11 majors and counting and I have seven, and I'm telling him what to do. But anyway -- you know, and come in and volley a little more. That's it.
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So in light of his excellent performance on BP conversion this year, what was the reason behind Fed's dismal performances according to you guys ? Was he actually choking ? Or was it simply down to the structural disadvantage of the one-handed backhand with a small sweet spot on the ad court ? Or maybe both ?
 
The only thing that makes a break point a break point is where it comes in the game. Otherwise it's just like anything else. Most of Feds issues were/are in his mind.
 
The guy has been one of the greatest tennis players ever, he definitely does not have an issue at least technically in break points. It has to have been mental.
 
I think it was more because he always believed In playing the way the sport was intended to be played - positive , entertaining , attacking tennis with an intent to win and NOT bore crowd and grind opponents to submission .

His opponents were grinders , safe players when it comes to big points and who cared about just winning the point and did not care much about the entertainment value for the public

Federer’s fan following is reflective of this . Fed should be given a hypothetical 5 slams just for the way he transformed the sport
 
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The poor BP conversion % was completely mental. As his losses against Nadal piled up even as fans we felt how stressful those breakpoints were. Imagine him on the court, trying to calm his nerves at those moments while his fans sitting at home on a couch had already bitten through all their finger and toenails just watching the tv!
 
Mostly mental. Federer has always been prone to BP wastage, even at his peak, but most opponents couldn't punish that because Federer's service game was too good for them, and he converted enough BPs to win.

Examples of Federer GS matches with poor BP conversion, win or lose:

2003 USO 3R vs Blake - 3/23, won in 3, was broken once (I believe it was something like 1/20 in the 2nd set, which Federer won in a tiebreak)
2004 AO F vs Safin - 5/18, won in 3, was broken twice (both in the 1st set; didn't face a BP in the next 2 sets)
2004 USO QF vs Agassi - 3/10, won in 5, was broken thrice (won fewer points than Agassi)

2005 AO SF vs Safin - 4/14, lost in 5, was broken 4 times (Safin had a similar 4/13 conversion; came down to Fed not clutching the 4th set TB, and then he saved 6 MPs in the 5th, but Safin was simply better and took it by shredding Federer on return in the last game)
2005 USO SF vs Hewitt - 4/14, won in 4, broken thrice (Hewitt had a similar 3/13 conversion; key moment was Federer saving a bunch of SPs on his serve in the 2nd set, then GOATing in the TB to record a tiebreak bagel)
2005 USO F vs Agassi - 4/18, won in 4, broken thrice (Federer didn't face a single BP in the 1st set and since breaking Agassi back in the 3rd, so while Agassi generally dominated a set and a half, Federer absolutely dominated the rest of the match, so BP conv. was not an issue)

2006 RG QF vs Ancic - 4/18, won in 3, broken once (bad BP conversion in earlier rounds doesn't matter if you don't get broken, duh)
2006 RG F vs Nadal - 3/10, lost in 4, broken 4 times (key moment was Federer wasting 40-0 on return early in the 3rd set and then getting broken).

2007 RG SF vs Davydenko - 4/15, won in very tight 3, broken 3 times (Davydenko had a worse BP conversion of 3/17; I think he was up a break in every set, so Federer was quite fortunate to win in straights, it was really one of the closest straight-set BO5 wins you'd ever see in the 2nd week).
2007 RG F vs Nadal - 1/17, lost in 4, broken 4 times (key moment was going 0/10 in the 1st and then getting broken twice with bad play; but in the last two sets, Fed's BP conversion was 0/1 - Nadal was just too good)

2008 AO 3R vs Tipsarevic - 5/21, won in 5, 10-8 in the 5th, broken 3 times (Tipsarevic was 3/3 - this contrast nearly saw Federer lose, but he servebotted like crazy in the decider and eventually cracked Tipsy resistance).
2008 AO SF vs Djokovic - 2/9, lost in 3, broken 4 times (Djokovic was 4/11, not much better, but his breaks were concentrated; key moment was Federer not serving out the 1st set and then losing 9 of the next 10 games; also I believe he had a set point on return in the 3rd set, but Djok saved it)
2008 Wimbledon F vs Nadal - 1/13, lost in 5, 7-9 in the 5th, broken 4 times (key moment was going 0/3 on BPs in the 1st set while Nadal went 1/1, then losing the 2nd from 4-1 up. Federer's BP conversion in the last two sets was 0/1, so that's not why he lost the 5th - but winning the 1st would've changed the flow of the match).
2008 USO QF vs Muller - 1/11, won in 3, unbroken (7-6 6-4 7-6; no fear when you're playing a servebot type player and know you can remain ubbroken and outplay him in tiebreaks)

2009 Wim F vs Roddick - 1/7, won in 5, 16-14 in the 5th, broken twice (nearly lost because of this; key BP failure was failing convert 4 BPs at 5-5 in the 1st set; if Federer breaks Roddick there, he is a hold away from taking the set, and then the match may be much easier)
2009 USO F vs del Potro - 5/22, lost in 5, broken 5 times (BP conv. wasn't why he lost, though - bad service games and poor TB performance was it).

2010 RG QF vs Söderling - 2/7, lost in 4, broken 4 times (key moment was missing a couple BPs late in the 3rd including a set point, then getting broken)
2010 Wim F vs Berdych - 1/8, lost in 4, broken 4 times (missed a bunch of BPs in the 3rd and 4th sets, I think. Probably still loses in 5 at best given the poor form.)
2010 USO R1 vs Dabul - 5/19, won in 3, unbroken (another example of an early round match where BP wastery doesn't matter)

2011 RG SF vs Djokovic - 4/25, won 4, broken 4 times (yes! worse than USO 2015 F, yet still won. Federer was very clutch in all other areas, though - breaking back after going down a break in sets 1 and 4, serving well in both TBs + saving both 2nd set BPs with aces. A very unusual match in that regard - basically Federer was wasting chances as usual except when it mattered most, then he was 100% efficient).

2012 AO SF vs Nadal - 3/10, lost in 4, broken 6 times (bad service games were the key to losing here, though)
2012 Wimbledon QF vs Youzhny - 6/20, won in 3, unbroken (doesn't matter if you aren't broken)
2012 Wimbledon SF vs Djokovic - 3/11, won in 4, broken once (same thing)

Now note the extra frequency in 2013:

2013 AO 4R vs Tomic - 3/16, won in 3, unbroken (doesn't matter if you don't get broken, but then you get the following: )
2013 AO QF vs Tsonga - 4/18, won in 5, broken 5 times
2013 Wim R2 vs Stakhovsky - 1/8, lost in 4, broken twice
2013 USO 4R vs Robredo - 2/16, lost in 3, broken 4 times

In 2014, that still continues:
AO R1 vs Duckworth - 4/17
AO QF vs Murray - 4/17
RG R3 vs Tursunov - 4/21
Wim R1 vs Lorenzi - 6/23
USO R1 vs Matosevic - 3/14

But now Fed's back to being good enough on serve that it doesn't matter in the early rounds: he wasn't broken in either of those matches, except once against Murray when he choked serving for the 3rd set and the match, and only lost two TB sets - one to Murray and one to Tursunov. But in the later rounds, the age-magnified return weakness doomed Federer when his opponents were good enough to break once per set on average.

Still more in 2015:
AO R3 vs Seppi - 3/10 (and he lost that match)
RG R1 vs Falla - 4/16 (too good on serve, though - unbroken)
RG QF vs Wawrinka - 0/4 (LOL, first time Oldermug can't break serve in a GS match all the way since USO 02)
Wim SF vs Murray - 3/10 (GOATed on serve, so didn't matter, but then: )
Wim F vs Djokovic - 1/7 (missed two SPs on return in the 1st set, but Djokovic saved them with good serves. The key to losing was a bad 1st set TB and being useless on return in the last two sets, generating 0 BP - not even reaching deuce! - since getting broken for 1-2* in the 3rd).
USO QF vs Isner - 1/10 (didn't matter because Isner couldn't break and TBGOATerer appeared in time, but it was close)
USO F vs Djokovic - 4/23 (keys to losing: all of them - breakpointphobia, service chokery, unforcederrorism, the only thing that's missing is doublefaultitis)

2016:
Wim R1 vs Pella - 1/9 (rusty stuff, but didn't face a BP and TBGOATerer was there again)
Wim QF vs Cilic - 2/9 (was getting owned and required a combination of refusing to go down and massive Sillyc chokefest to steal the match)
Wim SF vs Raonic - 1/8 (but the key to losing was a schite service game in set 1 and those disgusting double faults at 5-5 in the 4th, and then after the fall happened, Fed was done)

2017 AO F vs Nadal - 6/20 (held Nadal to an even worse 4/17 by quality servebotting that Noodli could no longer resist, but still was on the brink of losing and required an epic comeback to snatch the win)
2017 Wimbledon SF vs Berdych - 2/9 (had to summon both TBGOATerer and Clutchbotterer to force a straight-set win regardless)

So yes, Federer could always indulge in throwing out BPs, but it's become more frequent with age. However, the bigger reason for old failures has been increased frequency of service lapses, and sometimes plain impotence on return. Here's where declined reactions and flexibility tells big time. When having a dip in play, in general or a specific set, he must servebot and tiebreak his way to victory, and it doesn't work that often unless he's on top of his confidence, as it were in his glory days, or this year in IW/Mugiami/Wimbledon.
 
All mental. 100%.

With Nadal, he simply lack confidence after losing so many matches he should have won:

FO semis 2005
Dubai 2006
Rome 2006
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I'll even throw in MC 2006 and FO 2006 (Fed destroyed Rafa 6-1 in the first set).

I don't think Roger could believe anyone was beating him so regularly and his mentality simply collapsed like a ton of bricks. He beat the entire field for 3 years, but 90% of his losses from 2005-2007 were to Nadal alone.

The two biggest chokes of his career in slam finals (and there's much competition here) were Wimbledon 2008 and AO 2009. I regard the AO 2009 as the worst match he has ever played from the mental angle. Both those losses are clearly attributable to Fed choking on a epic scale. Here's the greatest player of all time completely unable to return Nadal's 80 MPH second serve. He had little problem with the monster serves of Sampras and Roddick on grass, but was paralyzed by the WTA serve of Nadal. Mind boggling stuff there. Never mind that he also knew the serve was going to his BH 98% of the time. There was no mystery. But he was too fragile to just stand over two paces to hit FH's on every second serve of Nadal. He was paralyzed. Instead he chipped endless BP's on Nadal's second serve weakly into the bottom of the net.

He was mentally destroyed by Nadal by 2007 and by 2009 he was in free fall. Nadal has 1/10th the variety of Fed and never varied his boring, predictable game plan because he didn't have to. Don't mess with a successful strategy. The fact it took Fed 10 years to finally slay his mental demons against Nadal has to be one of the greatest tennis stories ever, if not in all sports. He couldn't do it under Roche, Higueros, Annacone or Stefan. It took Ljub to break through the mental demons. How he helped Fed achieve this is worthy of a book of its own.

The chokes against Djoker in the USO semis, 2014-15 Wimbledon and the dreadful USO 2015 final were of similar nature. Maybe had Roger had the bigger racket, some of these choke fests could have been avoided. Djoker also started inhabiting his head and since Fed has never liked Novak, he became even more mentally rattled, losing to a guy he had no respect for until the 2011 season.
 
Reason I'm saying it's technical against Nadal is due to his serve in the AD court, which is always the side where the break point start unless it's 15-40. Federer's BH return from Nadal's slice serve out wide was never good enough to put him in a winning position in the rally, especially on clay. Different this year, obviously.
 
TheMaestro1990 said:
Reason I'm saying it's technical against Nadal is due to his serve in the AD court, which is always the side where the break point start unless it's 15-40. Federer's BH return from Nadal's slice serve out wide was never good enough to put him in a winning position in the rally, especially on clay. Different this year, obviously.
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There's a load of comparisons to make specifically, but I think it's definitely necessary to look at ad and deuce side seperately

How does the bp conversion stack up to %return points won on those positions (maybe corrected for serve%, higher 1st % is definitely clutchness of the opponent) within the match
How does this bp conversion stack up to %return points won vs all random opponents (is the returner clutch in general)
How does the %bp saved for the server stack up to %serve points won vs all random opponents (is the server clutch in general)


If Fed and his opponent deviate a lot from the ratio of bp converted to the ratio of return points won, and the trend they normally have vs other opponents, then there's definitely something going on. There would be a lot of statistics to do on that. However, sample size is important.

Given that many of the examples have Federer converting under 20% and still creating so many opportunities, I don't think it can be technical at all, as points won on both sides would have to differ enormously.


The ATP does actually collect stats on that for each match and you can even look at 18 different serve placements seperately, but they only collect data since 2011 and only at the Masters 1000 and WTF, so samples are tiny.

You can actually also look at scores seperately, so that's a place to start. Sad there's no slam stats though, and returns stats are very annoying as they only show % of points won on the condition that the return is made.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/player-tendencies
 
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Red Rick said:
There's a load of comparisons to make specifically, but I think it's definitely necessary to look at ad and deuce side seperately

How does the bp conversion stack up to %return points won on those positions (maybe corrected for serve%, higher 1st % is definitely clutchness of the opponent) within the match
How does this bp conversion stack up to %return points won vs all random opponents (is the returner clutch in general)
How does the %bp saved for the server stack up to %serve points won vs all random opponents (is the server clutch in general)


If Fed and his opponent deviate a lot from the ratio of bp converted to the ratio of return points won, and the trend they normally have vs other opponents, then there's definitely something going on. There would be a lot of statistics to do on that. However, sample size is important.

Given that many of the examples have Federer converting under 20% and still creating so many opportunities, I don't think it can be technical at all, as points won on both sides would have to differ enormously.


The ATP does actually collect stats on that for each match and you can even look at 18 different serve placements seperately, but they only collect data since 2011 and only at the Masters 1000 and WTF, so samples are tiny.

You can actually also look at scores seperately, so that's a place to start. Sad there's no slam stats though, and returns stats are very annoying as they only show % of points won on the condition that the return is made.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/player-tendencies
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My example is only for Nadal though as he puts that nasty curve on his serve out wide in the ad court. I think it clearly affected Federer's conversion rate during many of their meetings, especially on clay. Federer could almost at best always come up with a neutral return (slice usually) and from there on it was usually game over against peak/prime Nadal on clay. Against other players, I agree with you, I don't think it's a technical issue at all.
 
AnOctorokForDinner said:
Mostly mental. Federer has always been prone to BP wastage, even at his peak, but most opponents couldn't punish that because Federer's service game was too good for them, and he converted enough BPs to win.

Examples of Federer GS matches with poor BP conversion, win or lose:

2003 USO 3R vs Blake - 3/23, won in 3, was broken once (I believe it was something like 1/20 in the 2nd set, which Federer won in a tiebreak)
2004 AO F vs Safin - 5/18, won in 3, was broken twice (both in the 1st set; didn't face a BP in the next 2 sets)
2004 USO QF vs Agassi - 3/10, won in 5, was broken thrice (won fewer points than Agassi)

2005 AO SF vs Safin - 4/14, lost in 5, was broken 4 times (Safin had a similar 4/13 conversion; came down to Fed not clutching the 4th set TB, and then he saved 6 MPs in the 5th, but Safin was simply better and took it by shredding Federer on return in the last game)
2005 USO SF vs Hewitt - 4/14, won in 4, broken thrice (Hewitt had a similar 3/13 conversion; key moment was Federer saving a bunch of SPs on his serve in the 2nd set, then GOATing in the TB to record a tiebreak bagel)
2005 USO F vs Agassi - 4/18, won in 4, broken thrice (Federer didn't face a single BP in the 1st set and since breaking Agassi back in the 3rd, so while Agassi generally dominated a set and a half, Federer absolutely dominated the rest of the match, so BP conv. was not an issue)

2006 RG QF vs Ancic - 4/18, won in 3, broken once (bad BP conversion in earlier rounds doesn't matter if you don't get broken, duh)
2006 RG F vs Nadal - 3/10, lost in 4, broken 4 times (key moment was Federer wasting 40-0 on return early in the 3rd set and then getting broken).

2007 RG SF vs Davydenko - 4/15, won in very tight 3, broken 3 times (Davydenko had a worse BP conversion of 3/17; I think he was up a break in every set, so Federer was quite fortunate to win in straights, it was really one of the closest straight-set BO5 wins you'd ever see in the 2nd week).
2007 RG F vs Nadal - 1/17, lost in 4, broken 4 times (key moment was going 0/10 in the 1st and then getting broken twice with bad play; but in the last two sets, Fed's BP conversion was 0/1 - Nadal was just too good)

2008 AO 3R vs Tipsarevic - 5/21, won in 5, 10-8 in the 5th, broken 3 times (Tipsarevic was 3/3 - this contrast nearly saw Federer lose, but he servebotted like crazy in the decider and eventually cracked Tipsy resistance).
2008 AO SF vs Djokovic - 2/9, lost in 3, broken 4 times (Djokovic was 4/11, not much better, but his breaks were concentrated; key moment was Federer not serving out the 1st set and then losing 9 of the next 10 games; also I believe he had a set point on return in the 3rd set, but Djok saved it)
2008 Wimbledon F vs Nadal - 1/13, lost in 5, 7-9 in the 5th, broken 4 times (key moment was going 0/3 on BPs in the 1st set while Nadal went 1/1, then losing the 2nd from 4-1 up. Federer's BP conversion in the last two sets was 0/1, so that's not why he lost the 5th - but winning the 1st would've changed the flow of the match).
2008 USO QF vs Muller - 1/11, won in 3, unbroken (7-6 6-4 7-6; no fear when you're playing a servebot type player and know you can remain ubbroken and outplay him in tiebreaks)

2009 Wim F vs Roddick - 1/7, won in 5, 16-14 in the 5th, broken twice (nearly lost because of this; key BP failure was failing convert 4 BPs at 5-5 in the 1st set; if Federer breaks Roddick there, he is a hold away from taking the set, and then the match may be much easier)
2009 USO F vs del Potro - 5/22, lost in 5, broken 5 times (BP conv. wasn't why he lost, though - bad service games and poor TB performance was it).

2010 RG QF vs Söderling - 2/7, lost in 4, broken 4 times (key moment was missing a couple BPs late in the 3rd including a set point, then getting broken)
2010 Wim F vs Berdych - 1/8, lost in 4, broken 4 times (missed a bunch of BPs in the 3rd and 4th sets, I think. Probably still loses in 5 at best given the poor form.)
2010 USO R1 vs Dabul - 5/19, won in 3, unbroken (another example of an early round match where BP wastery doesn't matter)

2011 RG SF vs Djokovic - 4/25, won 4, broken 4 times (yes! worse than USO 2015 F, yet still won. Federer was very clutch in all other areas, though - breaking back after going down a break in sets 1 and 4, serving well in both TBs + saving both 2nd set BPs with aces. A very unusual match in that regard - basically Federer was wasting chances as usual except when it mattered most, then he was 100% efficient).

2012 AO SF vs Nadal - 3/10, lost in 4, broken 6 times (bad service games were the key to losing here, though)
2012 Wimbledon QF vs Youzhny - 6/20, won in 3, unbroken (doesn't matter if you aren't broken)
2012 Wimbledon SF vs Djokovic - 3/11, won in 4, broken once (same thing)

Now note the extra frequency in 2013:

2013 AO 4R vs Tomic - 3/16, won in 3, unbroken (doesn't matter if you don't get broken, but then you get the following: )
2013 AO QF vs Tsonga - 4/18, won in 5, broken 5 times
2013 Wim R2 vs Stakhovsky - 1/8, lost in 4, broken twice
2013 USO 4R vs Robredo - 2/16, lost in 3, broken 4 times

In 2014, that still continues:
AO R1 vs Duckworth - 4/17
AO QF vs Murray - 4/17
RG R3 vs Tursunov - 4/21
Wim R1 vs Lorenzi - 6/23
USO R1 vs Matosevic - 3/14

But now Fed's back to being good enough on serve that it doesn't matter in the early rounds: he wasn't broken in either of those matches, except once against Murray when he choked serving for the 3rd set and the match, and only lost two TB sets - one to Murray and one to Tursunov. But in the later rounds, the age-magnified return weakness doomed Federer when his opponents were good enough to break once per set on average.

Still more in 2015:
AO R3 vs Seppi - 3/10 (and he lost that match)
RG R1 vs Falla - 4/16 (too good on serve, though - unbroken)
RG QF vs Wawrinka - 0/4 (LOL, first time Oldermug can't break serve in a GS match all the way since USO 02)
Wim SF vs Murray - 3/10 (GOATed on serve, so didn't matter, but then: )
Wim F vs Djokovic - 1/7 (missed two SPs on return in the 1st set, but Djokovic saved them with good serves. The key to losing was a bad 1st set TB and being useless on return in the last two sets, generating 0 BP - not even reaching deuce! - since getting broken for 1-2* in the 3rd).
USO QF vs Isner - 1/10 (didn't matter because Isner couldn't break and TBGOATerer appeared in time, but it was close)
USO F vs Djokovic - 4/23 (keys to losing: all of them - breakpointphobia, service chokery, unforcederrorism, the only thing that's missing is doublefaultitis)

2016:
Wim R1 vs Pella - 1/9 (rusty stuff, but didn't face a BP and TBGOATerer was there again)
Wim QF vs Cilic - 2/9 (was getting owned and required a combination of refusing to go down and massive Sillyc chokefest to steal the match)
Wim SF vs Raonic - 1/8 (but the key to losing was a schite service game in set 1 and those disgusting double faults at 5-5 in the 4th, and then after the fall happened, Fed was done)

2017 AO F vs Nadal - 6/20 (held Nadal to an even worse 4/17 by quality servebotting that Noodli could no longer resist, but still was on the brink of losing and required an epic comeback to snatch the win)
2017 Wimbledon SF vs Berdych - 2/9 (had to summon both TBGOATerer and Clutchbotterer to force a straight-set win regardless)

So yes, Federer could always indulge in throwing out BPs, but it's become more frequent with age. However, the bigger reason for old failures has been increased frequency of service lapses, and sometimes plain impotence on return. Here's where declined reactions and flexibility tells big time. When having a dip in play, in general or a specific set, he must servebot and tiebreak his way to victory, and it doesn't work that often unless he's on top of his confidence, as it were in his glory days, or this year in IW/Mugiami/Wimbledon.
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Hell of a post
 
Break points & Federer.. many smh's in my viewing experience.

images
 
Purely mental IMO. He's one of the most offensive players of all time, yet on BP, he just tries to out grind his opponent rather than doing thing his way and seizing the opportunities. Getting too passive on BP definitely cost him, Wimbledon 2014 and at the USO in 2015 comes to mind. It's a shame when you think about it because Federer's return is quite an underrated aspect of his game, and he always put himself in a position to break, but because he fails to convert so many BP, his BP % or should I say his returns stats, which is what everyone looks at and judges you on becomes so-so instead of amazing.
 
Very simple, just pick on his backhand on breakpoint. Most likely he'll either (a) net the return, (b) spray it long/wide (c) hit it short. Maybe 10% of the time he'll stick a good return. Contrast with Djokovic backhand return is phenomenal.
 
Purely mental. If you're good enough to earn that many break points regardless of which side the court they're on, you'e good enough to convert them
 
Mental. Nothing worse than watching him bury countless 2nd serve bh returns into the net on BP during that Wimby 2008 final... ughhhh. tooo painful. End thread plz.
 
BeatlesFan said:
He was mentally destroyed by Nadal by 2007 and by 2009 he was in free fall.
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Sadly true. You can see it, ironically, in this US Open Press Conference from 2008. The edgy body language and some of the quotes are not what you'd really expect to see from someone who's just won his fifth consecutive US title. He seems to at one point admit to frequently re-living the W08 Final (although the meaning is a bit unclear) And while an Olympics Gold Medal is very nice it wouldn't normally merit anything like the importance it clearly had for him here (suspect that was less about the title than Stan providing some uncomplicated drunken mateship which was probably very welcome at the time). I can see it was irritating to get hassle from people wanting to "help" but maybe he should have wondered why.

 
I think it can still be technical even though theoretically a break point should be the same as any other point (except as mentioned the majority are to the ad court), as suboptimal technique can break down relatively a lot more, the more pressure it's under, (some players appear to have no flaws in their shot production until the pressure's on). But in this instance the root cause is still psychological and the technical impairment is a manifestation. Does anyone know what his stats are when facing break point? (He often serves bombs, which is difficult when returning)

I mean Federer has one of the best single handed backhands the game's seen and he would no doubt have hired quality left handed servers to drill the return of the wide one to the ad court (and all the other ones) ad nauseum. So is the technical error that he doesn't have a double hander? I'd say his main problem on the break points would likely be tactical as someone mentioned, being a bit more conservative, which again is psychological. So yeah psychological, it's definitely psychological!!
 
I don't think it was an issue w/ him being late to getting the larger racquet, but I wish he didn't chip so many bh returns on BP. That to me was the biggest issue, especially on the AD court.
 
Otacon said:
- 2007 RG final with 6% BP converted (1/17)
- 2008 Wimbledin final with 8% BP converted (1/13)
Click to expand...

I don't think people really grasp how hard it is to win a BP when Rafa is serving from the Ad Court...

While Rafa keeps Fed on his heels most of the point, Djokovic really tends to neutralize shots that would win fed most points and pull himself back to neutral. The longer the rally goes the more likely Djoker is to win b/c Fed is a bit more shank/error/overhitting prone than the machine.
 
After seeing the stats posted in this thread I can't help but wonder if we're just falling for confirmation bias. When I think about it, isn't it supposed to be hard to break? When someone is serving, they have the advantage.

So, do Federer's peers really have better bp conversion rates? I could also imagine that players have a tendency to go for broke on their serve when Federer is on the other side of the net. And I can also imagine that Federer gets more opportunities than most. Lastly, with his style of play, perhaps his opponents dont tire much on their serve, improving their chances of holding on critical moments.
 
A more meaningful stat I think is percentage of games won when holding one or more BP(s)
 
Enga said:
After seeing the stats posted in this thread I can't help but wonder if we're just falling for confirmation bias. When I think about it, isn't it supposed to be hard to break? When someone is serving, they have the advantage.

So, do Federer's peers really have better bp conversion rates? I could also imagine that players have a tendency to go for broke on their serve when Federer is on the other side of the net. And I can also imagine that Federer gets more opportunities than most. Lastly, with his style of play, perhaps his opponents dont tire much on their serve, improving their chances of holding on critical moments.
Click to expand...

This ^^^

We need to use the statistics we have to come up with some sort of threshold to determine whether or not Federer is A) better at getting to break point B) worse at converting those break points.

From there we can then see if Fed is just bad at converting or so bad that it must be a mental deficiency.
 
Gazelle said:
Federer should have fixed his backhand and backhand return ages ago, but better late than never.
Click to expand...
Easier said in hindsight.

If you think about it up until the middle of 2010 he was still winning a lot.

Then came the health problem, which probably obscured to some extent the need for a change.

By the end of 2011 he was back on track playing winning tennis which saw him reclaim the #1 position and winning Wimbledon.

It was after the end of 2012 and the recurring health issues in 2013 that he finally decided that he has to do something different.

Earlier than that was not realistic and it was just the raising of another ATG that stopped him from bagging more major titles after the change took place.

Still, people here will continue to discuss this matter as if he was a poster on TTW and not a professional athlete with career, obligations and limitations.

:cool:
 
I think that Fed's ability to convert break points is completely mental. I think that he should have 22-23 majors by now. The 2015 USO final against Djokovic had me ripping my hair out.

Another odd thing about Federer is that he has lost far more times than anybody else whenever he outscores his opponent.

Up until 2014,
Federer won 4 matches in which is opponent had more total points than he did.
However, Fed's opponents won 24 matches where Federer scored more points than they did.

I.e, through his 2013 season(I haven't seen the stats since), Federer is 4-24 in matches where the loser scores more points than the winner. This is the worst of anybody.

Up until this year, Federer was the type of guy that seemed to be invincible once he got a lead. He's had a really high percentage of straight set victories. But once the match got pushed to 5 sets, he was vulnerable. It was a pleasant surprise to see this turn around this year.
 
Technical of course. Federer's style is so risky, he always tries return winners with a low % of conversion and risky shots in general.

Even if some were to claim that it is "mental", it is irrelevant, since the mentality is also an important part of a tennis player. Ask Kyrgios.
 
Defo mental. He's generally not as mentally strong as his top competitors (Nadal, Djok).

It may or may not have something to do with how dominant he was earlier on in his career (i.e. lack of mental challenges earlier on). Hard to say though, could just be his personality.

He's still the best player of all time though. Most Grand Slams despite that weakness is just a testament of his talent.
 
Gabadshvil converted 2 break points in 1 set against tsitsipas bbt fed coundt even convert 1 out of 15 Chances...this happened 3 Rd time in a row..he plays 2 nd round flawless & then suddenly can't even hit a proper FH...time to retire after playing WB...
 
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