Was Federer better against the field in 2015 than 2017?

[RF-18]

I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.

Outside of clay in 2015, Federer had three losses if we take Djokovic out of the mix. Against Seppi, Ramos Vinolas and Isner. Rest of his losses came against Djokovic outside of clay. (Clay is excluded here cause Federer didn't play any clay tournaments in 17).

In 2017, Federer had losses against Donskoy, Haas, Zverev, Del Porto and Goffin on grass and HC.

Also, I've taken a look at how many sets they lost during the year against the field excluding Djokovic - he lost 28 sets in 2017 and 15 sets lost in 2015. Even if I include Djokovic in the losses in 2015, he has 25 sets lost still less than in 2017.

Also, they played the same number of tournaments in 2017 and 2015 outside of clay - 12 each.

Federer was destroying the field in 2015 aswell, even more dominant than in 2017 if we take a look at these numbers.

 

[NBP]

Yes incredibly dominant in Dubai, Indian Wells, Wimbledon, Cincinnati and the USO. For sure. But it's tough to compare just because it is different circumstances. He was injured in New York for example. There is a case for either argument. But he was too inconsistent for me to say 2015.

 

[Mr Feeny]

We know. That's what we've been trying to teach you. He's aged in those past 2 years.

 

[Sysyphus]

I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.

Outside of clay in 2015, Federer had three losses if we take Djokovic out of the mix. Against Seppi, Ramos Vinolas and Isner. Rest of his losses came against Djokovic outside of clay. (Clay is excluded here cause Federer didn't play any clay tournaments in 17).

In 2017, Federer had losses against Donskoy, Haas, Zverev, Del Porto and Goffin on grass and HC.

Also, I've taken a look at how many sets they lost during the year against the field excluding Djokovic - he lost 28 sets in 2017 and 15 sets lost in 2015. Even if I include Djokovic in the losses in 2015, he has 25 sets lost still less than in 2017.

Also, they played the same number of tournaments in 2017 and 2015 outside of clay - 12 each.

Federer was destroying the field in 2015 aswell, even more dominant than in 2017 if we take a look at these numbers.

Yes.

2017 and 2015 have the two highest dominance ratios Federer have ever recorded for a season (1.42 and 1.41). So I think it's safe to say that these seasons are neck and neck as contenders for the peakiest Federer.

In 2015 he was just unlucky that he was up against the highest level of tennis that has ever been produced, from the Earth's Mightiest Peace & Love Advocate. But in 2017 he showed that his own level was no joke, and enough to rule the tennis world with Novak out of the picture.

So be it.

Who will be triggered?​

 

[firstservekicker]

Brother I think the easiest way to look at is that even as an old man federer dominates the field. Naturally when an old man he has more problems with djokovic or nadal - but actually not that much really. He has beaten them what 30 times despite not being in his own peak and he has outlasted them all completely and distanced himself to another league with 20.Technically he is old man outside of his peak and prime but you cant really even say this brother. Peak and prime dont apply to him like it does with every single other player as he has become that good, makes tennis look that easy and took longevity to such an extreme that people cant even tell if he is peak, prime, what era he is from, what generation he is from and here refuse to give him leeway for being a previous generation and old age as he looks so good playing. His detractors here can not even tell if he is the same, worse, better than 2004. The normal rules dont apply to him

 

[Charlemagne]

You already know the answer.

 

[73west]

I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.

Outside of clay in 2015, Federer had three losses if we take Djokovic out of the mix. Against Seppi, Ramos Vinolas and Isner. Rest of his losses came against Djokovic outside of clay. (Clay is excluded here cause Federer didn't play any clay tournaments in 17).

In 2017, Federer had losses against Donskoy, Haas, Zverev, Del Porto and Goffin on grass and HC.

Also, I've taken a look at how many sets they lost during the year against the field excluding Djokovic - he lost 28 sets in 2017 and 15 sets lost in 2015. Even if I include Djokovic in the losses in 2015, he has 25 sets lost still less than in 2017.

Also, they played the same number of tournaments in 2017 and 2015 outside of clay - 12 each.

Federer was destroying the field in 2015 aswell, even more dominant than in 2017 if we take a look at these numbers.

I think you're right and I think we underestimated Federer's level of play in the last 12-18 months going into his time out. He was probably the 2nd best player on the tour in 2015, Murray's #2 finish notwithstanding. When he came back from the injury time out and established himself as the best player on tour (again, like in 2015, it is his inability or unwillingness to play the full season that keeps his ranking a spot lower than his play would suggest), it was never really a question of him trying to *regain* some lost form; it was only a question of whether the injury and age would mean he came back *worse* than what we had last seen. Because what we had last seen was still elite.

 

[fedtennisphan]

I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.

Outside of clay in 2015, Federer had three losses if we take Djokovic out of the mix. Against Seppi, Ramos Vinolas and Isner. Rest of his losses came against Djokovic outside of clay. (Clay is excluded here cause Federer didn't play any clay tournaments in 17).

In 2017, Federer had losses against Donskoy, Haas, Zverev, Del Porto and Goffin on grass and HC.

Also, I've taken a look at how many sets they lost during the year against the field excluding Djokovic - he lost 28 sets in 2017 and 15 sets lost in 2015. Even if I include Djokovic in the losses in 2015, he has 25 sets lost still less than in 2017.

Also, they played the same number of tournaments in 2017 and 2015 outside of clay - 12 each.

Federer was destroying the field in 2015 aswell, even more dominant than in 2017 if we take a look at these numbers.

I have a number you can look at: 20.

 

[Neil_Fedfan]

Better serve in 2015 as opposed to better ground game (especially the BH) in 2017 so overall the same level but not near the level he was back in his mid 20's (which is OP's agenda actually).

 

[ghostofMecir]

Better serve in 2015 as opposed to better ground game (especially the BH) in 2017 so overall the same level but not near the level he was back in his mid 20's (which is OP's agenda actually).

This.


“I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.”

Loooooool!

The Donskoy and Haas losses were complete throwaways as those losses were the result of a strange scoring system in tennis and possible tanking and gifting p, respectively.

 

[Sum Buddy Ells]

Both years do appear neck and neck, but Roger's newfound confidence since winning that seemingly elusive 18th AND doing it beating Rafa...giving everyone that vibe he's the man to beat once again...made 2017-RF the more amazing one. Just a shame that injury in Montreal became a factor

 

[Jonas78]

Better early season 2017 than early season 2015, better late season 2015 than late season 2017.

The losses vs Zverev and then Delpo was at least partly because of injury, the losses vs Haas and Donskoi at 250's/500's doesnt say too much.

If you say W17 vs W15 im not sure, dont think anyone except peak Djoker could stop him at W15...

 

[zagor]

I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.

Outside of clay in 2015, Federer had three losses if we take Djokovic out of the mix. Against Seppi, Ramos Vinolas and Isner. Rest of his losses came against Djokovic outside of clay. (Clay is excluded here cause Federer didn't play any clay tournaments in 17).

In 2017, Federer had losses against Donskoy, Haas, Zverev, Del Porto and Goffin on grass and HC.

Also, I've taken a look at how many sets they lost during the year against the field excluding Djokovic - he lost 28 sets in 2017 and 15 sets lost in 2015. Even if I include Djokovic in the losses in 2015, he has 25 sets lost still less than in 2017.

Also, they played the same number of tournaments in 2017 and 2015 outside of clay - 12 each.

Federer was destroying the field in 2015 aswell, even more dominant than in 2017 if we take a look at these numbers.

It's pretty straigthfoward aside from Wimbledon where it's hard to compare their levels.

2015 Fed was better at USO, Cinci and WTF. 2017 Fed was better at AO, IW and Miami.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Yes.

2017 and 2015 have the two highest dominance ratios Federer have ever recorded for a season (1.42 and 1.41). So I think it's safe to say that these seasons are neck and neck as contenders for the peakiest Federer.

Who will be triggered?​

Perhaps, but only if the parameters are sufficiently narrowed. Pedantic as this may sound, a thorough statistical comparison reveals that 2015 + 2017 lag pretty heavily behind 2006, and to a lesser (but still discernible) extent 2004-2005.



% of games won:

Federer 2006: 61.5 (not his best year, either)
Federer 2017: 59.2

% of sets won

Federer 2006: 84.7 (bettered in 2005)
Federer 2017: 80.5

% of aces/df

Federer 2006: 8.8/1.6
Federer 2017: 12.5/2.3

% ace against:

Federer 2006: 4.5
Federer 2017: 6.4


% of service games won

Federer 2006: 90.2
Federer 2017: 91.3

...2006 Federer has the narrow edge off clay, though, 91.4-91.3, despite the tour-wide hold rate being lower then.


% of return games won

Federer 2006: 31.6
Federer 2017: 26.8

Same edge when limited to non-clay, 31.3%

% of points won

Federer 2006: 55.6
Federer 2017: 54.9

Dominance Ratio

Federer 2006: 1.40
Federer 2017: 1.42

^and yet even here it's not so convincing, because Federer skipped his worst surface in 2017. In 2006, he had a 1.44 DR in 78 non-clay matches (76-2). Compares favourably to 1.42 over the course of total 56 matches, all of which were on HC and grass. Much higher % of points won in 2006 non-clay too, 56.0%-54.9%.

Didn't do 2015 because this is a copy and paste of a post I made some moons ago comparing 06/17 after somebody made a thread asserting that 2017 was his best statistical year...but the results would be much the same. And I'm lazy. have a gander if wish to:

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=3819



Anyways, whatever one thinks of his level/competition in those respective seasons, neither 2015/2017 can hold their own against his earlier years, in a fair-minded statistical comparison.

 

[NatF]

Sure remove 5 losses from his 2015 record and he was just as good a 2017

 

[Shank Volley]

Fed may be have been more dominant against the field but the field was absolute garbage back then. Plus it makes sense. Players are always improving and so they've caught up with Federer a little (who had also improved to stay ahead of them). Stronger field = more unexpected losses. Just look at Djokovic. His game has hit an absolute wall in the past year, he seems incapable of improving. Looks like his very best just isn't good enough for the ever advancing game.

 

[Sysyphus]

Perhaps, but only if the parameters are sufficiently narrowed. Pedantic as this may sound, a thorough statistical comparison reveals that 2015 + 2017 lag pretty heavily behind 2006, and to a lesser (but still discernible) extent 2004-2005.



% of games won:

Federer 2006: 61.5 (not his best year, either)
Federer 2017: 59.2

% of sets won

Federer 2006: 84.7 (bettered in 2005)
Federer 2017: 80.5

% of aces/df

Federer 2006: 8.8/1.6
Federer 2017: 12.5/2.3

% ace against:

Federer 2006: 4.5
Federer 2017: 6.4


% of service games won

Federer 2006: 90.2
Federer 2017: 91.3

...2006 Federer has the narrow edge off clay, though, 91.4-91.3, despite the tour-wide hold rate being lower then.


% of return games won

Federer 2006: 31.6
Federer 2017: 26.8

Same edge when limited to non-clay, 31.3%

% of points won

Federer 2006: 55.6
Federer 2017: 54.9

Dominance Ratio

Federer 2006: 1.40
Federer 2017: 1.42

^and yet even here it's not so convincing, because Federer skipped his worst surface in 2017. In 2006, he had a 1.44 DR in 78 non-clay matches (76-2). Compares favourably to 1.42 over the course of total 56 matches, all of which were on HC and grass. Much higher % of points won in 2006 non-clay too, 56.0%-54.9%.

Didn't do 2015 because this is a copy and paste of a post I made some moons ago comparing 06/17 after somebody made a thread asserting that 2017 was his best statistical year...but the results would be much the same. And I'm lazy. have a gander if wish to:

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=3819



Anyways, whatever one thinks of his level/competition in those respective seasons, neither 2015/2017 can hold their own against his earlier years, in a fair-minded statistical comparison.

To say neither 2015 or 2017 can "hold their own" against his "earlier years" (bit too vague – they do in fact compare favorably to several of his "earlier years," so we should probably be a bit more specific) might be taking it a bit too far, though ultimately it comes down to what you want to mean by "hold their own." In my mind, a dominance ratio of 1.42 can certainly stand comparison to a dominance ratio of 1.44. It's a very minor difference indeed, and it's the bottom line predictor stat for my money (and is closer in this case than total points won because it weighs the difference between increasing your serve points won by a certain amount compared to doing the same on return, as you probably know).

 

[Red Rick]

Yes.

2017 and 2015 have the two highest dominance ratios Federer have ever recorded for a season (1.42 and 1.41). So I think it's safe to say that these seasons are neck and neck as contenders for the peakiest Federer.

In 2015 he was just unlucky that he was up against the highest level of tennis that has ever been produced, from the Earth's Mightiest Peace & Love Advocate. But in 2017 he showed that his own level was no joke, and enough to rule the tennis world with Novak out of the picture.

So be it.

Who will be triggered?​

What haws his dominance ratio on clay specifically in 2015. It matters, though I'm not sure in which direction that difference falls.

 

[Sysyphus]

What haws his dominance ratio on clay specifically in 2015. It matters, though I'm not sure in which direction that difference falls.

1.29 or 1.34 without peak mythical Djokovic if we want to go there. Perfectly decent. On hardcourt he was a stunning 1.56 without peak mythical Djokovic and won 56.6% of points in 2015. A DR of 1.41 and 55.7% of points won against the field on hardcourt in 2006. Very revealing, as my friend Gore would say.

I have also heard it quite conclusively pronounced by my Fed brethren that the 2017–present clay field is unimaginably bad, the worst of all time, so given that Fed actually posted respectable numbers in 2015, playing clay in 2017 might actually have been an easy opportunity to increase his DR, not decrease it.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

I've looked it over and I was a bit surprised.

Outside of clay in 2015, Federer had three losses if we take Djokovic out of the mix. Against Seppi, Ramos Vinolas and Isner. Rest of his losses came against Djokovic outside of clay. (Clay is excluded here cause Federer didn't play any clay tournaments in 17).

In 2017, Federer had losses against Donskoy, Haas, Zverev, Del Porto and Goffin on grass and HC.

Also, I've taken a look at how many sets they lost during the year against the field excluding Djokovic - he lost 28 sets in 2017 and 15 sets lost in 2015. Even if I include Djokovic in the losses in 2015, he has 25 sets lost still less than in 2017.

Also, they played the same number of tournaments in 2017 and 2015 outside of clay - 12 each.

Federer was destroying the field in 2015 aswell, even more dominant than in 2017 if we take a look at these numbers.

Ignore the mickey mouse tournaments (Dubai/Stuttgart) and he was at least as good overall in 2017 and better at the slams. Even if you forget about Djokovic, 2017 Fed didn't have a slam stinker like the Seppi loss. He lost to Delpo at USO and no shame in that, even then he was physically impeded.

 

[RF-18]

Perhaps, but only if the parameters are sufficiently narrowed. Pedantic as this may sound, a thorough statistical comparison reveals that 2015 + 2017 lag pretty heavily behind 2006, and to a lesser (but still discernible) extent 2004-2005.



% of games won:

Federer 2006: 61.5 (not his best year, either)
Federer 2017: 59.2

% of sets won

Federer 2006: 84.7 (bettered in 2005)
Federer 2017: 80.5

% of aces/df

Federer 2006: 8.8/1.6
Federer 2017: 12.5/2.3

% ace against:

Federer 2006: 4.5
Federer 2017: 6.4


% of service games won

Federer 2006: 90.2
Federer 2017: 91.3

...2006 Federer has the narrow edge off clay, though, 91.4-91.3, despite the tour-wide hold rate being lower then.


% of return games won

Federer 2006: 31.6
Federer 2017: 26.8

Same edge when limited to non-clay, 31.3%

% of points won

Federer 2006: 55.6
Federer 2017: 54.9

Dominance Ratio

Federer 2006: 1.40
Federer 2017: 1.42

^and yet even here it's not so convincing, because Federer skipped his worst surface in 2017. In 2006, he had a 1.44 DR in 78 non-clay matches (76-2). Compares favourably to 1.42 over the course of total 56 matches, all of which were on HC and grass. Much higher % of points won in 2006 non-clay too, 56.0%-54.9%.

Didn't do 2015 because this is a copy and paste of a post I made some moons ago comparing 06/17 after somebody made a thread asserting that 2017 was his best statistical year...but the results would be much the same. And I'm lazy. have a gander if wish to:

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=3819



Anyways, whatever one thinks of his level/competition in those respective seasons, neither 2015/2017 can hold their own against his earlier years, in a fair-minded statistical comparison.

I compared them on HCs and grass. His stats are better on HCs in 2015, better serve percentage, better return percentages and his dominance ratio is 1.44 vs 1.38 in 2017. But on grass 2017 is better.

Federers 1.44 dominance ratio on HCs in 2015 is the 2nd best in his career. 1.45 is the highest wich was in 2007.

If you check grass, his numbers in 2017 is better than any other year in his career. He had 1.63 dominance ratio(!) on the surface in 17.

 

[mike danny]

Breakdown by tournaments off clay:

AO: clearly 2017 Fed
IW: 2017 Fed
Miami: 2017 Fed
Wimb: equal
USO: 2015 Fed
Shanghai: 2017 Fed
Basel: 2017 IMO. Delpo indoors is tougher than Nadal indoors.
WTF: 2015 Fed

From what I see, 2017 Fed has the edge over 2015 Fed in most events off clay.

 

[Sysyphus]

I compared them on HCs and grass. His stats are better on HCs in 2015, better serve percentage, better return percentages and his dominance ratio is 1.44 vs 1.38 in 2017. But on grass 2017 is better.

Federers 1.44 dominance ratio on HCs in 2015 is the 2nd best in his career. 1.45 is the highest wich was in 2007.

If you check grass, his numbers in 2017 is better than any other year in his career. He had 1.63 dominance ratio(!) on the surface in 17.

Stunning numbers from declinerer

do notice the 1.56 dominance ratio on HC in 2015 when peak Novak is taken out of the equation (which is only fair, seeing as there was nothing remotely close to peakvac in 2006)

 

[mike danny]

I compared them on HCs and grass. His stats are better on HCs in 2015, better serve percentage, better return percentages and his dominance ratio is 1.44 vs 1.38 in 2017. But on grass 2017 is better.

Federers 1.44 dominance ratio on HCs in 2015 is the 2nd best in his career. 1.45 is the highest wich was in 2007.

If you check grass, his numbers in 2017 is better than any other year in his career. He had 1.63 dominance ratio(!) on the surface in 17.

What pulled Fed's stats down in 2017 was his injury in Montreal, which messed up his USO performance.

Also what that stat on HC doesn't tell you is that Fed lost to Seppi at the AO in 2015 in the 3R. That's worse than any performance by 2017 Fed on HC.

 

[fedtennisphan]

I compared them on HCs and grass. His stats are better on HCs in 2015, better serve percentage, better return percentages and his dominance ratio is 1.44 vs 1.38 in 2017. But on grass 2017 is better.

Federers 1.44 dominance ratio on HCs in 2015 is the 2nd best in his career. 1.45 is the highest wich was in 2007.

If you check grass, his numbers in 2017 is better than any other year in his career. He had 1.63 dominance ratio(!) on the surface in 17.

You can throw out the numbers. Federer was a threat in 2015 and he was a threat in 2017 going into 2018. That’s the part you and your ilk can’t reconcile. Federer just keeps on coming.

 

[Red Rick]

1.29 or 1.34 without peak mythical Djokovic if we want to go there. Perfectly decent. On hardcourt he was a stunning 1.56 without peak mythical Djokovic and won 56.6% of points in 2015. A DR of 1.41 and 55.7% of points won against the field on hardcourt in 2006. Very revealing, as my friend Gore would say.

I have also heard it quite conclusively pronounced by my Fed brethren that the 2017–present clay field is unimaginably bad, the worst of all time, so given that Fed actually posted respectable numbers in 2015, playing clay in 2017 might actually have been an easy opportunity to increase his DR, not decrease it.

I think DR is just a hard stat to interpret cause it's really biased toward better serving, and especially as serve points won go up in a match the DR isn't that great of a predictor anymore.

If I'm not mistaken, Fed has been at 55% of points won for years with way better opposition, but it's interesting to see how much those stats can be skewed by just a few players.

 

[Red Rick]

What pulled Fed's stats down in 2017 was his injury in Montreal, which messed up his USO performance.

Also what that stat on HC doesn't tell you is that Fed lost to Seppi at the AO in 2015 in the 3R. That's worse than any performance by 2017 Fed on HC.

True. But Federer wasn't unbeatable in every single match last year either. He just happened to time his average matches pretty well or to tough them out.

 

[Chanwan]

Iirc, he didn't have injuries to deal with in 2015. In 2017, he had Montreal, the US and was off for whatever reason at the WTF. Dubai and Stuttgart were just odd. Obviously these things affect the stats. But I personally don't see a huge difference in level between now and 2015. Better backhand, sure. But inability to play a full season

True. But Federer wasn't unbeatable in every single match last year either. He just happened to time his average matches pretty well or to tough them out.

This was one of the many surprises in 2017. Fed was - for the most part - super clutch. Sure, he lost a couple of matches from MP up, but that aside he really pulled through much more often than not. Which is also reflected in the no. of sets lost.

 

[fedfan39]

I watched a lot of Fed's matches in 2015. It was very difficult for me to swallow the W and the USO losses because Fed was really playing extremely well for the whole year.

Having said this, I believe 2017-AO Fed could take Novak down in at least one slam and maybe IW/WTF. 2017-AO Fed was actually outhitting a very healthy and formidable Nadal from the baseline from both wings, something that was his kryptonite ever since 2008.

2015 Fed still had the mighty forehand but he could not match Djokovic consistently from both wings. That would not be the case for the 2017-AO Fed.

After 2017 Miami, honestly, Fed hasn't looked the same at the same high level (honestly, who can blame him...he will be 37 years old!!), so there is just no way *THIS* Fed could perform at the 2015 level. Without the best ever Novak, the field is significantly weaker too.

But that guy Novak though....easily robbed Fed of at least 2 possible #1 year end finishes (2012, 2015...maybe also 2014). If Novak wasn't around, Nadal and Fed would literally split the season at the border of the FO line (Nadal taking the former half, Fed the latter half). Novak just destroyed that beautiful equation completely!

 

[mike danny]

True. But Federer wasn't unbeatable in every single match last year either. He just happened to time his average matches pretty well or to tough them out.

He wasn't. But he never was in danger of losing to a Seppi-level player last year outside his Dubai choke.

 

[Chanwan]

Breakdown by tournaments off clay:

AO: clearly 2017 Fed
Dubai: clearly 2015 Fed
IW: 2017 Fed
Miami: 2017 Fed
Halle: equal? Don't recall
Wimb: equal
USO: 2015 Fed
Shanghai: 2017 Fed
Basel: 2017 IMO. Delpo indoors is tougher than Nadal indoors.
WTF: 2015 Fed

From what I see, 2017 Fed has the edge over 2015 Fed in most events off clay.

Agree with this. Added Dubai and Halle. Can't recall Halle tbh.

 

[Monster07]

Perhaps, but only if the parameters are sufficiently narrowed. Pedantic as this may sound, a thorough statistical comparison reveals that 2015 + 2017 lag pretty heavily behind 2006, and to a lesser (but still discernible) extent 2004-2005.



% of games won:

Federer 2006: 61.5 (not his best year, either)
Federer 2017: 59.2

% of sets won

Federer 2006: 84.7 (bettered in 2005)
Federer 2017: 80.5

% of aces/df

Federer 2006: 8.8/1.6
Federer 2017: 12.5/2.3

% ace against:

Federer 2006: 4.5
Federer 2017: 6.4


% of service games won

Federer 2006: 90.2
Federer 2017: 91.3

...2006 Federer has the narrow edge off clay, though, 91.4-91.3, despite the tour-wide hold rate being lower then.


% of return games won

Federer 2006: 31.6
Federer 2017: 26.8

Same edge when limited to non-clay, 31.3%

% of points won

Federer 2006: 55.6
Federer 2017: 54.9

Dominance Ratio

Federer 2006: 1.40
Federer 2017: 1.42

^and yet even here it's not so convincing, because Federer skipped his worst surface in 2017. In 2006, he had a 1.44 DR in 78 non-clay matches (76-2). Compares favourably to 1.42 over the course of total 56 matches, all of which were on HC and grass. Much higher % of points won in 2006 non-clay too, 56.0%-54.9%.

Didn't do 2015 because this is a copy and paste of a post I made some moons ago comparing 06/17 after somebody made a thread asserting that 2017 was his best statistical year...but the results would be much the same. And I'm lazy. have a gander if wish to:

http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=3819



Anyways, whatever one thinks of his level/competition in those respective seasons, neither 2015/2017 can hold their own against his earlier years, in a fair-minded statistical comparison.

But 2015 fed is the best version of him ever

 

[Red Rick]

He wasn't. But he never was in danger of losing to a Seppi-level player last year outside his Dubai choke.

Except that he went to 5 sets in both of his first two matches at the last USO. Circumstances were pretty different though.

 

[zagor]

He wasn't. But he never was in danger of losing to a Seppi-level player last year outside his Dubai choke.

In 2017? He was at USO.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Thanks for the fair and thorough rundown, and you are quite right, though no real need (I'm not that far gone that I don't realize that his domination of the field was more thorough in 2006). As my little white question at the bottom of my poast hints, I was mostly playing along with the OP to see if it would wind up some of my fellow Fed fans.

To say neither 2015 or 2017 can "hold their own" against his "earlier years" (bit too vague – they do in fact compare favorably to several of his "earlier years," so we should probably be a bit more specific) might be taking it a bit too far, though ultimately it comes down to what you want to mean by "hold their own." In my mind, a dominance ratio of 1.42 can certainly stand comparison to a dominance ratio of 1.44. It's a very minor difference indeed, and it's the bottom line predictor stat for my money (and is closer in this case than total points won because it weighs the difference between increasing your serve points won by a certain amount compared to doing the same on return, as you probably know).

I hear ya, and figured

Bottom is fair, but it's essentially an issue of semantics; I just mean that they don't compare insofar as neither year can conceivably win the comparison, no matter how much arbitrary tinkering is done by some to make it as close as possible . The data is right there in front of us. Out of all the metrics at our disposal, DR + service games won are the only important ones that are close enough to even merit a comparison (and even there, the smaller sample size tilts things further in favour of 2006.) TPW%, % of games, sets, return games etc. all favour 2006 decisively. 2015/2017 deserve to be included in the pantheon of great Fed years, but they ultimately fall short in a direct comparison with 2006. And for the people that keep making threads about Federer's improvement in certain statistical categories while conveniently omitting the areas where he's fallen off a cliff, that's an inconvenient truth. Naturally, this criticism does not apply to even-handed folks like yourself.

And by early years I specifically meant 2004-2006. Could have been less vague, yes.

I compared them on HCs and grass. His stats are better on HCs in 2015, better serve percentage, better return percentages and his dominance ratio is 1.44 vs 1.38 in 2017. But on grass 2017 is better.

Federers 1.44 dominance ratio on HCs in 2015 is the 2nd best in his career. 1.45 is the highest wich was in 2007.

If you check grass, his numbers in 2017 is better than any other year in his career. He had 1.63 dominance ratio(!) on the surface in 17.

That's all well and good, but I was comparing 2015/17 to 2004-2006 (mainly 2006). Turns out, both years are inferior, statistically, to his 2004-2006 campaigns. I was not comparing 2015 to 2017. I do regard the two years as just about equal. Djokovic was just too much of a hurdle for Federer in 2015.

 

[mike danny]

Except that he went to 5 sets in both of his first two matches at the last USO. Circumstances were pretty different though.

The USO struggles are well documented. His back injury messed up his USO performance.

I don't recall 2015 Fed being injured when he lost to Seppi at the AO in the 3R.

 

[Red Rick]

The USO struggles are well documented. His back injury messed up his USO performance.

I don't recall 2015 Fed being injured when he lost to Seppi at the AO in the 3R.

Brain injury in an area of the cortex associated with confidence.

 

[zagor]

Sure remove 5 losses from his 2015 record and he was just as good a 2017

Still, only Seppi loss was bad. Fed's Wimbledon/USO/Cinci levels were quite high, definitely comparable to 2017.

 

[mike danny]

In 2017? He was at USO.

The USO struggles are well documented. Fed wasn't 100% there.

At the AO in 2015 I don't remember him being injured, which makes the Seppi loss all the more shocking.

 

[RF-18]

Breakdown by tournaments off clay:

AO: clearly 2017 Fed
IW: 2017 Fed
Miami: 2017 Fed
Wimb: equal
USO: 2015 Fed
Shanghai: 2017 Fed
Basel: 2017 IMO. Delpo indoors is tougher than Nadal indoors.
WTF: 2015 Fed

From what I see, 2017 Fed has the edge over 2015 Fed in most events off clay.

Federer didn't play Miami in 15.

In IW 15, Federer played Djokovic in the final. Point of the thread was excluding Djokovic and comparing against the field. So your tournament breakdown is not valid.

 

[RF-18]

Breakdown by tournaments off clay:

AO: clearly 2017 Fed
IW: 2017 Fed
Miami: 2017 Fed
Wimb: equal
USO: 2015 Fed
Shanghai: 2017 Fed
Basel: 2017 IMO. Delpo indoors is tougher than Nadal indoors.
WTF: 2015 Fed

From what I see, 2017 Fed has the edge over 2015 Fed in most events off clay.

And why are you including Basel, a 500 event and skipping to bring in dubai?

 

[mike danny]

Federer didn't play Miami in 15.

In IW 15, Federer played Djokovic in the final. Point of the thread was excluding Djokovic and comparing against the field. So your tournament breakdown is not valid.

2017 Fed still feels like he played better in IW than 2015. I did that breakdown excluding Djokovic from all of them. The Nadal match at IW convinced me.

 

[mike danny]

And why are you including Basel, a 500 event and skipping to bring in dubai?

I forgot about Dubai, my mistake. That goes to 2015 clearly.

 

[RF-18]

2017 Fed still feels like he played better in IW than 2015. I did that breakdown excluding Djokovic from all of them. The Nadal match at IW convinced me.

Performance against Nadal was amazing, but rest of his matches wasn't as dominant as his run in IW 15. Out of the five matches he won, only one set went over four games.

 

[Sysyphus]

Brain injury in an area of the cortex associated with confidence.

please, everyone knows self-confidence lies in the bilateral ventral striatum.

jk

 

[NatF]

Still, only Seppi loss was bad. Fed's Wimbledon/USO/Cinci levels were quite high, definitely comparable to 2017.

Sure definitely comparable, never said it wasn't. Federer was clearly better at the YEC in 2015 as well.

I think the difference is in 2017 Federer played much more freely and was mentally stronger than 2015 in big matches. He was very good at sweeping the field aside in 2015 but I feel like he dropped his level at times when facing Novak. Even accounting for Djokovic making Federer play worse I think Federer was shackled himself as well.

 

[zagor]

I have also heard it quite conclusively pronounced by my Fed brethren that the 2017–present clay field is unimaginably bad, the worst of all time, so given that Fed actually posted respectable numbers in 2015, playing clay in 2017 might actually have been an easy opportunity to increase his DR, not decrease it.

Nonsense, that's just Fed fans being Fed fans (not you of course, you're their moral and intellectual superior), bunch of fanatical plebs. The reality is quite the opposite, It's actually the toughest CC field of all time given that it featured the apex of CC tennis evolution that is Thiem, I'm sure if you dig your nose enough into stats you'll find enough data to prove how vastly superior he is to peak Novak and Fed (sorry I meant younger Fed, the peak one is allergic to clay) on the dirt.

Afterall he did reach that one CC masters final in his career which is an astounding achievement when you think about it (far more worth than winning FOs in those earlier inferior eras), of course he had to save MPs against the young and improved version of Fed (the peak mythical Divatrov) but hey, luck favours the brave (or maybe the stupid in his case).

Who can we except to dazzle us in the CC season this year aside from peak Nadal, maybe Goffin or Schartzman? Carreno Busta? Borna Coric? The excitement is just too much.

 

[Tennisanity]

LOL, did OP just destroy his own Fed philosophy?

 

[zagor]

Sure definitely comparable, never said it wasn't. Federer was clearly better at the YEC in 2015 as well.

I think the difference is in 2017 Federer played much more freely and was mentally stronger than 2015 in big matches. He was very good at sweeping the field aside in 2015 but I feel like he dropped his level at times when facing Novak. Even accounting for Djokovic making Federer play worse I think Federer was shackled himself as well.

That's a fair point, I think the 6 month break helped Fed mentally, not just physically. I think 2015 Wimbledon Novak was gonna be too good for Fed either way but 2015 USO was a bad mental performance from him no doubt. I think he was panicking a bit in 2015, I got the -this might be my lost slam final vibe- from him in 2015 USO final, probably made worse by that being his first USO final in years. He seemed calmer in 2017 and fully embraced the underdog role at AO.

He definitely raised his game against Nadal in 2017 compared to against Novak in 2015 but I don't feel Nadal was nearly as good as 2015 Novak (aside from clay obviously) so it's hard to compare because there's no Nova's equivalent.

I think it's hard to examine mental strength in a vacuum, it goes hand in hand with form and match-ups.

 

[Chanwan]

Federer didn't play Miami in 15.

In IW 15, Federer played Djokovic in the final. Point of the thread was excluding Djokovic and comparing against the field. So your tournament breakdown is not valid.

IW was Fed's best tournament in 2017, so your point is moot in this respect.