Watch Nadal's "tough" draw evaporate in the Melbourne heat

tennisaddict

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
Nadal about his next round 570 ranked player :

"He has a great future and will be a very tough match for me if I am not able to play my best."
 
NatF

NatF

Bionic Poster
tennisaddict said:
Nadal about his next round 570 ranked player :

"He has a great future and will be a very tough match for me if I am not able to play my best."
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Tough for him if he doesn't play his best -- easy for him if he does ;)

Nothing wrong with what he said really, although it is abit funny seeing as Rafa in C mode could beat this kid in straight.
 
J

jhhachamp

Hall of Fame
sbengte said:
It is like on a scale of 1-10 , 10 being the toughest if Djoker's draw is a 3, Nadal's is a 6. Fed has got the harshest of draws in recent times (last 3-4 years) followed by Murray/Djoker and Nadal usually is never the one who never gets the toughest draw among the top 4, so this is really a one off thing, if you ask me.
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Are you aware of how the draw works? The number 1 and 2 ranked players are likely to get the best draws. Nadal has been ranked either 1 or 2 at all majors he has played except for the French/Wimbledon 2013, so it is not surprising that his draws have been good. Federer letting his ranking drop out of the top 4 has made his life more difficult, as he now has a 75% chance of drawing Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray in the quarters.

That said, Federer appears to have one of the most difficult draws I have ever seen him face. He would likely need to beat Tsonga, Murray, Nadal, and Djokovic from the 4th round on in order to win. Even his 3rd round match against Verdasco is not easy, as Verdasco has played well at this event in the past. He is lucky that Stepanek retired from his 1st round match because that would have been one of the toughest opponents he could have drawn in round 2.
 
J

jhhachamp

Hall of Fame
sbengte said:
I admit I was wrong specifically about whose half Delpo would land in but please also quote my other posts in context where I said prior to the draw that Delpo is not going to be much of a factor at the AO.
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I did not take your post out of context. I simply do not have time for and am not interested in looking through all of your other posts to try and figure out if you were consistent in your stance that Del Potro was a difficult player to have in a top player's quarter.
 
ksbh

ksbh

Banned
What a wasted opportunity this Australian Open. If Only Del Potro had been in Nole's side of the draw, we would have had such a good time winding up some of these worthless Federer fans like the guy that started this thread.

Well, there's always next time!

:)
 
cc0509

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Sabratha said:
Hewitt out, Seppi worn down, Tomic tanking. Nadal's draw is getting easier by the minute.
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It was never that difficult on paper or in reality if you really think about it. Tomic or Hewitt were not going to beat Nadal no matter how in form they were. Monfils and Nishikori should pose little danger. Del Potro is the first guy who "may" trouble Nadal imo but I doubt it.
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Steve Dykstra said:
Are you aware of how the draw works? The number 1 and 2 ranked players are likely to get the best draws.
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Not really. The top 4 are randomly drawn into a quarter so technically all of their draws could be equally easy or difficult. It is not like #1 and #2 get the easier quarters, the only easy part for them is that they don't get to face each other before the finals. Anyway, the difficulty level for a semi is mostly based on matchups and not real rankings. For eg, say, if Fed is ranked #1 and Nadal is #4, Fed would gladly meet #2 or #3 in the semis than the #4, right ?

Nadal has been ranked either 1 or 2 at all majors he has played except for the French/Wimbledon 2013, so it is not surprising that his draws have been good. Federer letting his ranking drop out of the top 4 has made his life more difficult, as he now has a 75% chance of drawing Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray in the quarters.
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In my post, I was only referring to the time when Fed was in the top 4, basically when Fed-Nadal-Murray-Djoker were the top 4 and all 4 had equal chances of drawing a given quarterfinalist. Most often, it would be Fed getting a hot, in form player like Tsonga in his quarter, while Nadal has not played Tsonga at a slam since AO 2008.

Now that Fed is ranked outside the top 5 and is old,injured and declined, no draw is going to help him, so talking about his draws is a moot point.
 
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Solo

Solo

Banned
Steve Dykstra said:
Tomic is ranked number 57 in the world and as such is a more difficult 1st round opponent than most other possible players Nadal could have drawn.
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Not with his tanking strategy he isn't.

At least the others would have completed the sets even if they lost 3 sets against Nadal, Tomic is getting more and more dissapointing, especially by the Aussie fans. Look at Hewitt, did a 5 setter who's like 10 years older than Tomic...but then again, what do you expect from Tomic who said Hewitt isn't good enough to be a hitting partner for him.

Total joke.
 
Crisstti

Crisstti

Legend
Forehand Of Doom said:
It was all about Delpo (and probably Murray) to begin with anyway.
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Exactly. Apparently Murray is playing very well...

Hilarious anyway seeing haters whine yet some more. If Rafa gets an easy draw, they whine, then they whine preemptively about the easy draw he will get (they do this every single time... with silly conspiracy undertones), then he gets a tough draw and what they do?, oh yeah. They whine.

Even if Rafa losses early, like against Rosol in that famous match, what were they doing after that?, whining about shoulder bumps and what not :)
 
J

jhhachamp

Hall of Fame
sbengte said:
Not really. The top 4 are randomly drawn into a quarter so technically all of their draws could be equally easy or difficult. It is not like #1 and #2 get the easier quarters, the only easy part for them is that they don't get to face each other before the finals. Anyway, the difficulty level for a semi is mostly based on matchups and not real rankings. For eg, say, if Fed is ranked #1 and Nadal is #4, Fed would gladly meet #2 or #3 in the semis than the #4, right ?
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This is incorrect. 1 and 2 are always placed in opposite halves as are 3 and 4. As a result, someone ranked 3 or 4 will typically get a tougher semi match than someone ranked 1 or 2. When Federer was ranked 3 and Nadal and Djokovic were ranked 1 and 2 (and all 3 were playing much better than the rest of the tour), the number 3 ranking definitely made it more difficult for Federer. Federer was guaranteed to face either Nadal or Djokovic in the semi, while Nadal and Djokovic both had a 50% chance to get an easy semi.

sbengte said:
Now that Fed is ranked outside the top 5 and is old,injured and declined, no draw is going to help him, so talking about his draws is a moot point.
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A draw can still make a big difference in how well Federer does and his chances to win another major. His chances would go way up if he had drawn Almagro instead of Tsonga and Ferrer instead of Djokovic in his 4th and quarterfinal matchups.
 
J

jhhachamp

Hall of Fame
Solo said:
Not with his tanking strategy he isn't.

At least the others would have completed the sets even if they lost 3 sets against Nadal, Tomic is getting more and more dissapointing, especially by the Aussie fans. Look at Hewitt, did a 5 setter who's like 10 years older than Tomic...but then again, what do you expect from Tomic who said Hewitt isn't good enough to be a hitting partner for him.

Total joke.
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I am not arguing that Tomic is not a total joke, but he is definitely a tougher first round match than most Nadal could have drawn, regardless of how it actually played out.
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Crisstti said:
Exactly. Apparently Murray is playing very well...
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You decide that watching him play Soeda ? Too early to say.

Hilarious anyway seeing haters whine yet some more.
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So now making an informed prediction about Nadal's draw is 'whining' ? What is with Nadal fans' obsession with the word whining ? Just because your hero does it all the time doesn't mean everything said about him here can be termed 'whining' , you know ? :D
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Steve Dykstra said:
This is incorrect. 1 and 2 are always placed in opposite halves as are 3 and 4.
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Did you read my post ? I was talking of quarters for the top 4 and also admitted that the top 2 have the advantage of not playing each other in the semis (which obviously is because they are in opposite halves)

As a result, someone ranked 3 or 4 will typically get a tougher semi match than someone ranked 1 or 2.
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This is not always correct and I explained why with an example in my earlier post. Margins between top 4 players (especially when Fed-Nadal-Djoko-Murray were the top 4) are so small that matchups matter more than the actual ranking.
 
Crisstti

Crisstti

Legend
sbengte said:
You decide that watching him play Soeda ? Too early to say.

It still points to him playing well. At least admit he's a way tougher semi than Ferrer.
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It sure as hell is too early to say Murray's no threat as well.

So now making an informed prediction about Nadal's draw is 'whining' ? What is with Nadal fans' obsession with the word whining ? Just because your hero does it all the time doesn't mean everything said about him here can be termed 'whining' , you know ? :D
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It's not an informed prediction. It's preemptive whining :)
 
Forehand Of Doom

Forehand Of Doom

Banned
Crisstti said:
Exactly. Apparently Murray is playing very well...

Hilarious anyway seeing haters whine yet some more. If Rafa gets an easy draw, they whine, then they whine preemptively about the easy draw he will get (they do this every single time... with silly conspiracy undertones), then he gets a tough draw and what they do?, oh yeah. They whine.

Even if Rafa losses early, like against Rosol in that famous match, what were they doing after that?, whining about shoulder bumps and what not :)
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They should open a Whinery. :)
 
M

monfed

Guest
Ralph made a deal with Bernie that he would buy him some dances if he tanked. Looks like Bernie took it. :lol:
 
ksbh

ksbh

Banned
As big a whiner as Federer is, his fans are even worse. LOL, I nearly purchased the Feddie fans new book ... "Like player, like fan!"

Can someone tell me when Djokovic's next match will be played? We need some peace in this forum so hopefully the Federer fans will be busy cheer-leading for Nole!
 
J

jhhachamp

Hall of Fame
sbengte said:
This is not always correct and I explained why with an example in my earlier post. Margins between top 4 players (especially when Fed-Nadal-Djoko-Murray were the top 4) are so small that matchups matter more than the actual ranking.
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I never said that it was always correct. I disagree strongly that Federer dropping out of the top 2 did not hurt his chances at slams as you seem to be suggesting.
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
thejoe said:
This is looking rather prescient right now...
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And people made a big deal of Nadal drawing Delpo while it is well known that Delpo has a bad track record at the AO.

Anyway, the script seems to be playing out exactly like I thought. This Delpo may not make it to quarters let alone beat Nadal.

(I don't know if it is the effect of stupidly playing Sydney).
 
pds999

pds999

Hall of Fame
sbengte said:
All I have been reading ever since the draw came out is how Nadal has got a 'tough' draw but does anyone seriously think that Nadal won't make it to the finals ?

Don't get me started about Monfils and Nishikori, they are not going to touch Nadal at a slam. So also old man Hewitt, that ship has sailed.

Murray is highly unlikely to make it to Nadal given he is not yet back to his full fitness post surgery.

Federer making it to Nadal is out of question (but Federer is Nadal's pigeon anyway and poses no greater threat to Nadal at this point than, say, Almagro)

Isner is already out.

I said in the draw prediction thread that Delpo is not a threat at AO because he has had a bad record at the AO so far. On top of that, he was stupid enough to play Sydney just before coming here. If he gets a couple of day matches in the scorching heat, that will be enough to make him lose or retire. Even if he makes it to the quarters, he is losing to Nadal in straights.

Nadal's semifinal opponent will likely be a very tired Tsonga, if he can control his penchant for getting into 5 setters in early rounds.

So I don't get all this hype about Nadal's herculean draw.
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Compared to Novak's draw it is herculean.
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
pds999 said:
Compared to Novak's draw it is herculean.
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I feel Wawa will push Novak more than anyone in Nadal's draw will push him. Let us wait and see.

In general, Nadal is a lucky chap. He only draws tough players in a tournament where they are not at their best or will bomb out early, so this is not surprising :lol:
 
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