Was about to post this in the "
fav. movie of 2017" thread but guess this is a better fit. Links to my old reviews are provided where available.
Best Picture - Anyone who read my
previous capsule reviews should know I'm not terribly impressed by this year's lot, and I wish
Mudbound had taken the place of some of the nominees, but among the current ones Phantom Thread should win. I've never been a big PTA fan and still dislike his calculated shock-and-awe game plan, but I was charmed by how touching and funny his latest outing was, and I'm ready to say this tale of Reynolds Woodcock and Alma Elson, while not quite transcendent, is one of the better explorations of obsessive love in cinema. Among PTA's oeuvre I'd probably rate it second only to Magnolia, and Daniel-Day Lewis is sensational as the doyen of haute couture.
Which nominee will win, though? I'm guessing it's a tight 3-way race between Get Out, Lady Bird and The Shape of Water (I know Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is the odds-on fave right now but the fact that its director wasn't even nominated doesn't bode well for its chances), with the latter as the eventual winner due to the other two splitting BLM and #MeToo votes. And I'd actually be pretty happy about that result, as del Toro's picture is on paper as unlikely an Oscar winner as they come.
Actor in a Leading Role - I loved Denzel's performance in Roman J. Israel and as I just noted DDL is more than a worthy nominee and I suspect the dark horse here, but this category is probably the least likely to produce an upset. It's hard to imagine another actor who would be better suited to play Churchill than Oldman, and his expected win would be well deserved.
Actress in a Leading Role - All deserving nominees (I even liked Streep's performance despite my general antipathy towards her) and I still think Robbie could emerge as the surprise winner, but I'm guessing it'll be down to Hawkins, Ronan and McDormand, with Frances getting enough sympathy votes (like I said I'm not too keen on Three Billboards's chances) to end up on top.
Actor in a Supporting Role - I'm going with another upset: Dafoe over Rockwell again thanks to enough sympathy votes (The Florida Project deserved more than a single measly nom).
Actress in a Supporting Role - Again any of 'em would be a deserving winner (with the only possible exception of Spencer, if due to the very supporting role he's asked to play), but this is looking like another shoo-in category, with Janney grabbing her first Oscar (on her very first nomination!).
Animated Feature Film - I'm not qualified to comment on this as I've seen only two of the nominees (Coco and Loving Vincent - really wish I caught The Breadwinner during its limited run), but who are we kidding? Coco will win. Just hope Loving Vincent doesn't pull off the upset. The animated indie hit of the year is a perfectly fine whodunit biopic, but its marketing would have you think it's a direct descendant of Oskar Fischinger's visual music in its innovation and imagination when it's anything but.
Cinematography - My money's on The Shape of Water's Dan Laustsen but I hope Roger A. Deakins takes it for Blade Runner 2049, which I feel is one of the most underrated films of the year (as with most sci-fi flicks it was praised more for its visual style and technical accomplishments than for its metaphysics).
Costume Design - I would have no quarrel with any of the nominees (even Consolata Boyle who worked on the loathsome
Victoria and Abdul), but expect Mark Bridges to win it for Phantom Thread.
Directing - Almost as unpredictable as its Best Picture sibling, but if The Shape of Water comes up short tonight I predict it won't be because of del Toro's failure in this category. Hope he gives another speech steeped in personal and cinematic history.
Documentary (Feature) - I've yet to see Icarus and Last Man in Aleppo, but I can't imagine either of them matching the personal and social impact of Strong Island, Yance Ford's powerful documentary on her quest to find justice for her deceased brother and one of the two films of 2017 (along with Bill Morrison's
Dawson City: Frozen Time) which I'm ready to declare a masterpiece. Varda and JR's lovely Faces Places would be another commendable winner.
Documentary (Short Subject) - Can't comment as I've yet to see any of 'em. Hoping to catch them later this week before they're inevitably pulled from
the lone theater currently showing them in the DC area following the Oscars. (I'm guessing the live-action and animated shorts will stick around a little longer.)
Film Editing - Have yet to see Baby Driver, but if there's one category where Nolan's Dunkirk could claim bragging rights it should be this one.
(To be continued.)