Week 2 of USTA League Nationals is four days away

As of right now, the 4.0 women could still potentially have six undefeated (1.3%) and five undefeated is at 13%.
 
Heck of a match between Southwest and Intermountain. Tied 2-2, it came down to MTB in singles, Intermountain prevailed after a 3-hour match.
 
Southwest pulled two very minor upsets to get their two courts. Intermountain favored by more on the three courts they won.
 
Simulation says the 40+ 4.0M have no chance of four undefeated, just 11% chance of three. Mid-Atlantic and Middle States with best chances at getting in at 3-1.
 
So Intermountain is in. Middle West and Texas are almost certainly in at least a tie for a spot, Florida could be too but they are behind on courts. Mid-Atlantic and Middle States lurking, Southwest and Eastern have remote shots.
 
The "interesting" scenario.

Intermountain in at 4-0

Texas is 3-1 / 14-6

If Florida beats Middle West 3-2, Florida is 4-0 / 12-8 and the #2 seed. This leaves Middle West 3-1 / 14-6

If Middle States wins 5-0, they are 3-1 / 14-6

If Southwest wins 5-0, they are 3-1 / 14-6

A nice 4-way tie at 3-1 / 14-6 could get interesting and we see how the tie-breakers work and get interpreted.
 
And, lets hope it doesn't get to game winning percentage as TennisLink still isn't calculating it right ...
 
Mid Atlantic 5-0'd So Cal jumping all the way up to 3rd. They won three 3rd set tiebreaks. Incredibly clutch. That knocks Southwest out.

Can Middle States respond against Southern?
 
Middle States wins, but 3-2, falls short of getting into a tie-breaker.

Florida beats Middle West 3-2 putting ******* and Texas in a tie for 3rd, ******* taking it on one fewer game lost.

So looks like Intermountain vs Texas and Florida vs Middle West
 
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Defeating the same team twice in a row is usually a tough task. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mid.west take the rematch against florida. I wonder if either team will change up their line up going into it.

Also I feel bad for Middle States. Their Herculean effort falls just short. They were one individual mid.west win over Florida from squeaking their way into the semi-finals.
 
So we (maybe myself?) expected TX and IM to be the 1-2 seed going into the semis (meaning they wouldnt face each other until the finals)...yet here they are the 1 and 4 seed squaring off in the Semi finals (YES TX LOST). Over/Under 3 Three Third Set tie breaks that match?

Shoutout to FL for being 4-0 (#2 seed in the Semis) and winning only 12 courts. yes...all you 'statistically' need is 3 courts per match.

Not sure what the scenario with MoValley going 0-4 being a simulation top 4 favorite of @schmke
 
BeyondTheTape said:
So we (maybe myself?) expected TX and IM to be the 1-2 seed going into the semis (meaning they wouldnt face each other until the finals)...yet here they are the 1 and 4 seed squaring off in the Semi finals (YES TX LOST). Over/Under 3 Three Third Set tie breaks that match?

Shoutout to FL for being 4-0 (#2 seed in the Semis) and winning only 12 courts. yes...all you 'statistically' need is 3 courts per match.

Not sure what the scenario with MoValley going 0-4 being a simulation top 4 favorite of @schmke
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Yep, Florida is thankful this isn't a points per position format!

MoValley did lose three of their matches 3-2, so they were close, and didn't have one of their stronger players it seems, and also got 15 players all at least two matches, so they were playing their lower rated players a lot. My simulation doesn't assume a team plays their top-8, but does assume they play their better players more.
 
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The 40 & Over Texas team to be playing this weekend has:
  • Four self-rated players (one ineligible for Nationals), two of which were 4.5C in the past (4 and 5 years ago) and somehow managed to self-rate as 4.0 now
  • Two players who were self-rated last year and managed to get 4.0C year-end ratings
  • Six players who appealed down from 4.5
  • Twelve players that were 4.5C last year and managed to get 4.0C year-end ratings (one ineligible for Nationals)
That is 24 players that perhaps were really 4.5 (or higher) level players to start the year that "somehow" became 4.0C or were self-rated.

The 40 & Over Intermountain team also playing this weekend has:
  • Three self-rated players (one ineligible for Nationals), one was a 4.5 8 years ago and managed so self-rate as 4.0 now
  • One was self-rated last year and managed to get a 4.0C year-end rating
  • Zero players that appealed down
  • Zero that were 4.5s last year and managed to get 4.0C year-end ratings
This is 4 players that perhaps were really 4.5 (or higher) level players to start the year that "somehow" became 4.0C or were self-rated.

Everyone can form their own opinion, but to me there is no comparison. Many Nationals teams probably have the make-up of the Intermountain team, few, if any others, have the make-up of the Texas teams.

Note of course that not every player that was a 4.5 (or 4.0) and is now a 4.0 (or 3.5), or that was/is self-rated and is eligible at level, is eligible due to shenanigans or tanking matches, but when 16 or 24 players on a roster fall into the suspicious category, it is unlikely all are clean.
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Well, Texas v. Utah was the matchup I was expecting to see in thei finals, but looks like we get it one round early (at least for this weekend). Now, we'll get to see how these two teams, despite one haing 24 players above 4.5 level to start the year and one having 4 above that level, truly compare. Regardless, I think Intermountain's results so far, plowing through another sectionals and nationals round robins play, leaves no doubt their makeup is more like the typical Houston Texas teams and not like the makeup of the majority of non Texas teams that find their way to Nationals. This will become even more evident next week in Las Vegas.

All that being said, this looks like it has been an extremely competitive tournament. As @schmke noted, MoValley may have finished 0-4, but they lost 3 matches 3-2 with a few being determined by third set. Certainly nothing like the Hawaii team that went 0-4 last week in 3.5 and got blasted in every match. The numerous teams fighting out for spots 3 and 4 at 3-1 also shows you how equal most of this field was.
 
tennis_tater said:
Well, Texas v. Utah was the matchup I was expecting to see in thei finals, but looks like we get it one round early (at least for this weekend). Now, we'll get to see how these two teams, despite one haing 24 players above 4.5 level to start the year and one having 4 above that level, truly compare. Regardless, I think Intermountain's results so far, plowing through another sectionals and nationals round robins play, leaves no doubt their makeup is more like the typical Houston Texas teams and not like the makeup of the majority of non Texas teams that find their way to Nationals. This will become even more evident next week in Las Vegas.

All that being said, this looks like it has been an extremely competitive tournament. As @schmke noted, MoValley may have finished 0-4, but they lost 3 matches 3-2 with a few being determined by third set. Certainly nothing like the Hawaii team that went 0-4 last week in 3.5 and got blasted in every match. The numerous teams fighting out for spots 3 and 4 at 3-1 also shows you how equal most of this field was.
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Yep, Florida wins four matches 3-2 and is the #2 seed, MoValley loses three matches 3-2 and is in next to last. MoValley was arguably one player (or better lineups) away from being 3-1.

Even after the matches were played, my ratings have MoValley with 11 eligible players over 4.00, but one of them didn't play and they played four guys all rated under 3.9 a total of 8 times (each one twice) and they were a combined 0-8, and only two of their better players even played three matches, the rest played just two. This team obviously put a priority on getting everyone in a match at least twice, and if that was the team charter from the start, they a re to be commended for doing that. But that is not going to lead to the best result for the team.

Florida on the other hand focused on playing their top guys more, and got the right match-ups to eke out 3-2 wins. All of their guys rated over 4.00 played at least three matches, most of them four.
 
schmke said:
Yep, Florida wins four matches 3-2 and is the #2 seed, MoValley loses three matches 3-2 and is in next to last. MoValley was arguably one player (or better lineups) away from being 3-1.

Even after the matches were played, my ratings have MoValley with 11 eligible players over 4.00, but one of them didn't play and they played four guys all rated under 3.9 a total of 8 times (each one twice) and they were a combined 0-8, and only two of their better players even played three matches, the rest played just two. This team obviously put a priority on getting everyone in a match at least twice, and if that was the team charter from the start, they a re to be commended for doing that. But that is not going to lead to the best result for the team.

Florida on the other hand focused on playing their top guys more, and got the right match-ups to eke out 3-2 wins. All of their guys rated over 4.00 played at least three matches, most of them four.
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1/2 of this Mo Valley team also qualified for Over 18's next week. Maybe a couple of their guys just couldn't swing both trips.
 
Florida wins another 3-2, beating Middle West a second time. Can they do it again?

Texas beats IM in a MTB on court 3 doubles. Close matches all around.
 
schmke said:
Florida wins another 3-2, beating Middle West a second time. Can they do it again?

Texas beats IM in a MTB on court 3 doubles. Close matches all around.
Click to expand...
Looks like Texas retired while leading doubles 2 once the match was decided. Intermountain loses 9 courts all year through local league, districts, sectionals, and nationals round robin play yet loses 4* to Texas in one match.

*had they played it out
 
Vox Rationis said:
Looks like Texas retired while leading doubles 2 once the match was decided. Intermountain loses 9 courts all year through local league, districts, sectionals, and nationals round robin play yet loses 4* to Texas in one match.

*had they played it out
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Well, when you have 24 "4.5s" ... (https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...tart-in-four-days.654991/page-6#post-13807690)

Seriously, my ratings have 13 of them over 4.00 and another 6 over 3.90. As noted earlier, most of these perhaps got their 4.0 rating for 2019 in interesting ways.
 
schmke said:
Well, when you have 24 "4.5s" ... (https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...tart-in-four-days.654991/page-6#post-13807690)

Seriously, my ratings have 13 of them over 4.00 and another 6 over 3.90. As noted earlier, most of these perhaps got their 4.0 rating for 2019 in interesting ways.
Click to expand...

I’m sure they did get their ratings in a dirty manner but I suspect they aren’t the only ones. I’m amazed at how many (not all) people are only upset with Texas.

I’ve dealt with that captain’s teams for years so I’m not disputing the shenanigans but I’ve seen some shenanigans in other sections that are on par. I’ve seen captains pull similar shenanigans from other Texas cities as well. I’ve seen garbage out of PNW, SoCal, NorCal, MW, IM, Carib, Mid-Atlantic and Southern. Those are just some of the worst offenders (along with Texas in no particular order). Texas is more than just Houston. I think Houston thrives on everyone giving them constant infamy. They seem to like it. When they had Munoz at 4.5... that was the most egregious thing they’ve ever done! He toyed with our own elite 4.5s. I know that one guy will say Emmott but after his motorcycle accident, he can barely walk and looks like Frankenstein.
 
Not that this would surprise anyone, but my buddy from the 40+ Eastern team who is a real solid 4.0 himself, and is rarely one to whine, commented to me about what he called “USTA ratings shenanigans.” “There were some silly players out here, and not all of them were from Texas.”

Bout time USTA takes some meaningful action to put a stop to this stuff.
 
lostinamerica said:
I’m sure they did get their ratings in a dirty manner but I suspect they aren’t the only ones. I’m amazed at how many (not all) people are only upset with Texas.

I’ve dealt with that captain’s teams for years so I’m not disputing the shenanigans but I’ve seen some shenanigans in other sections that are on par. I’ve seen captains pull similar shenanigans from other Texas cities as well. I’ve seen garbage out of PNW, SoCal, NorCal, MW, IM, Carib, Mid-Atlantic and Southern. Those are just some of the worst offenders (along with Texas in no particular order). Texas is more than just Houston. I think Houston thrives on everyone giving them constant infamy. They seem to like it. When they had Munoz at 4.5... that was the most egregious thing they’ve ever done! He toyed with our own elite 4.5s. I know that one guy will say Emmott but after his motorcycle accident, he can barely walk and looks like Frankenstein.
Click to expand...

I played Emmott that year and all the kings horses and all the kings men did have to put Hunter Emmott back together again. He had scars all over and for those who didn’t believe the motorcycle accident, I think it is true. At least something serious happened.

You are right in that he can’t move but he does have skills if he is close to the ball. Don’t lob him unless you already well behind the baseline or maybe safely in a bunker. Other than that, I agree with what you said.
 
lostinamerica said:
I’m sure they did get their ratings in a dirty manner but I suspect they aren’t the only ones. I’m amazed at how many (not all) people are only upset with Texas.

I’ve dealt with that captain’s teams for years so I’m not disputing the shenanigans but I’ve seen some shenanigans in other sections that are on par. I’ve seen captains pull similar shenanigans from other Texas cities as well. I’ve seen garbage out of PNW, SoCal, NorCal, MW, IM, Carib, Mid-Atlantic and Southern. Those are just some of the worst offenders (along with Texas in no particular order). Texas is more than just Houston. I think Houston thrives on everyone giving them constant infamy. They seem to like it. When they had Munoz at 4.5... that was the most egregious thing they’ve ever done! He toyed with our own elite 4.5s. I know that one guy will say Emmott but after his motorcycle accident, he can barely walk and looks like Frankenstein.
Click to expand...
People arent only upset with texas. Houston is just the poster boy of it all so they get called out the most often. But plenty of other cities and players/captains have been called out as well.
 
lostinamerica said:
I’ve dealt with that captain’s teams for years so I’m not disputing the shenanigans but I’ve seen some shenanigans in other sections that are on par.
Click to expand...

Plus that captain is now 2 for 2 in winning nationals this year and has a good chance at going 4 for 4. He might get a clean sweep of 18+ and 40+ at two different levels. He's clearly doing things a cut above everyone else.
 
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