Week 3 of Nationals is a big one - 18+ 4.0 and 4.5, 40+ 3.0 and 3.5

[schmke]

The busiest weekend of Nationals is this weekend with a full four events for both genders, all events being 5-court format.

I just posted my 18+ 4.0 simulation, others coming soon. The 18+ 4.0 appears to be exceedingly competitive with a large tie at 3-1 likely due to some strong teams having tougher schedules. It should be interesting.

 

[Jack the Hack]

Also, for those that are going to Vegas this week and looking for things to do (and you can't get enough tennis), there is an ATP Challenger event happening at the UNLV campus courts. The tournament starts today (10/14) and runs through the finals on Sunday (10/20):

Las Vegas Tennis Open

The Las Vegas Tennis Open 2023 is here! The event will take place on October 23-29, 2023. Don’t miss this spectacular event in the tennis community! Become a sponsor or sign up to volunteer today.

www.lasvegastennisopen.com

Steve Johnson, Jack Sock, and Donald Young are all in the draw.

When my team went to Nationals last year, my family arrived in Vegas early and stayed for 10 days. I didn't know that the Las Vegas Open was going on (it wasn't advertised at the Nationals site as far as I remember), so we missed it... and I was a little bummed about that, so I wanted to let people know about it in case you might want to see some world class players before or after your League matches. For me, seeing that level of play up close always is inspiring.

 

[schmke]

Also, for those that are going to Vegas this week and looking for things to do (and you can't get enough tennis), there is an ATP Challenger event happening at the UNLV campus courts. The tournament starts today (10/14) and runs through the finals on Sunday (10/20):

Las Vegas Tennis Open

The Las Vegas Tennis Open 2023 is here! The event will take place on October 23-29, 2023. Don’t miss this spectacular event in the tennis community! Become a sponsor or sign up to volunteer today.

www.lasvegastennisopen.com

Steve Johnson, Jack Sock, and Donald Young are all in the draw.

When my team went to Nationals last year, my family arrived in Vegas early and stayed for 10 days. I didn't know that the Las Vegas Open was going on (it wasn't advertised at the Nationals site as far as I remember), so we missed it... and I was a little bummed about that, so I wanted to let people know about it in case you might want to see some world class players before or after your League matches. For me, seeing that level of play up close always is inspiring.

Thanks for the tip. You'd think the USTA would do a bit more to promote these tournaments, especially to players they know will be in the area!

Next simulation has been posted, 18+ 4.5M.

 

[McLovin]

Next simulation has been posted, 18+ 4.5M.

So you’re calling for the Mid Atlantic to come out on top? I hope not. My good friend is on that team, and I’ll never hear the end of it if he wins a National Championship.

In fact, we’re hitting tomorrow for a bit, then I have to string his frames before he leaves Thursday. Maybe I’ll drop his tension 20lbs...

 

[CHtennis]

I am going to pick Middle West for a 3 peat to win again, I like the team they are bringing (also, I am just being a homer). I also think Caribean is often underrated and I think this is one of those times when there team is better than their ratings.

 

[djkahn86]

I’m hoping middle states 4.0 men can shock the world !

 

[Jack the Hack]

Given that Texas has won the men's 3.5, 40s 4.0, and 5.0+ titles so far... I'm kind of rooting for anyone but them!

Then again, if Texas ends up sweeping every title from 3.5 to 5.0+ in both age divisions for men, maybe they'll get the nuclear NTRP bump, the SMU ban, and they'll finally secede from the union, or something.

 

[schmke]

So you’re calling for the Mid Atlantic to come out on top? I hope not. My good friend is on that team, and I’ll never hear the end of it if he wins a National Championship.

In fact, we’re hitting tomorrow for a bit, then I have to string his frames before he leaves Thursday. Maybe I’ll drop his tension 20lbs...

Based on team strength and schedule, yeah, they are the most likely to advance to the semis.

 

[schmke]

Women's 18+ 4.5 posted. NorCal/SoCal lead the way, but a full 9 teams have a better than 1 in 3 shot at at least being in a tie for the semis, and the simulation has a 3-way tie on court record for the last spot.

 

[tpro2000]

Maybe I'm blind, but where do you post your simulations? Thanks!

 

[Jack the Hack]

Maybe I'm blind, but where do you post your simulations? Thanks!

He posts them at his blog site here: http://computerratings.blogspot.com/

(I don't think TW rules allow him to link to it directly himself.)

 

[tpro2000]

He posts them at his blog site here: http://computerratings.blogspot.com/

(I don't think TW rules allow him to link to it directly himself.)

Thanks!!

 

[schmke]

18+ 4.0M is now posted. Very close at the top with the usual suspects favored (Texas and Intermountain)

 

[Vox Rationis]

18+ 4.0M is now posted. Very close at the top with the usual suspects favored (Texas and Intermountain)

Do you still use a top 8 average? How is it possible that the team with the toughest schedule has an opponent average of 4.19? That seems extremely high.

 

[CrocodileRock]

18+ 4.0M is now posted. Very close at the top with the usual suspects favored (Texas and Intermountain)

It could be a repeat of last weekend's semis. Same captains, several of the same players on each team.

 

[schmke]

Do you still use a top 8 average? How is it possible that the team with the toughest schedule has an opponent average of 4.19? That seems extremely high.

To better represent who will actually play, I use top-11 averages assuming a few outside the top-8 will get matches in.

And yeah, 4.19 is very high for "4.0s", but the opponents include 4 perennial top teams, in fact they face two of the top-4 and all four opponents are in my top-7 vying to make the semis. A bad draw for sure ...

 

[schmke]

It could be a repeat of last weekend's semis. Same captains, several of the same players on each team.

Good observation. Those players that did well last week had their ratings climb from where they where a week ago which boosted these numbers a bit more. And throw in that this is 18+ with some youngsters that may have really improved vs 40+ where that isn't as common, and you get some really high rated top players on some teams.

 

[Vox Rationis]

To better represent who will actually play, I use top-11 averages assuming a few outside the top-8 will get matches in.

And yeah, 4.19 is very high for "4.0s", but the opponents include 4 perennial top teams, in fact they face two of the top-4 and all four opponents are in my top-7 vying to make the semis. A bad draw for sure ...

My thoughts and prayers go out to Pacific NW.

 

[schmke]

My thoughts and prayers go out to Pacific NW.

Over/under on courts won?

 

[Vox Rationis]

Over/under on courts won?

3. Although I'm personally pulling for them to go 20-0.

 

[schmke]

3. Although I'm personally pulling for them to go 20-0.

Ha, my simulation says 3 is most likely!

 

[schmke]

40 & Over 3.5 men now posted. Guess who is the favorite ...

 

[BMRSNR27]

Oklahoma City looks cold and windy to start on Friday morning. Wind is the great equalizer. Should be interesting!

 

[Vox Rationis]

Ha, my simulation says 3 is most likely!

I am the simulation

A little more back on topic. For 4.0 I can see Florida "upsetting" Middle States, potentially knocking them out of semifinal contention (if it's a lopsided 5-0 or 4-1 win). They look like they have a super capable lineup. But the rest of their schedule is so difficult, I can see why they're not in your top 7 most likely to reach the semifinals. Hard to see them beating Middle States, Texas, and Nor Cal back to back to back. Yet winning 2 out of 3 might leave them on the wrong side of tiebreakers.

 

[BeyondTheTape]

same FL captain (along with 2 other pals) from their 18+ 4.0 nationals team last year. Looks like along with the 3 former 2018 nationals players - recruited 8 self rates of their 19 rostered players. Funny enough they had a 3.5s who is now 4.5 so DQ'ed from nationals competition (DQ'ed after 2 matches this year at 4.0 and played 1 3.5 match last year).

also interesting that they finished 4th in their local league going 4-3 then didnt lose a match after local league. Ran the table and beat the 7-0 local league team when it mattered in their first playoff round and then went undefeated in post season rounds.

 

[schmke]

A little more back on topic. For 4.0 I can see Florida "upsetting" Middle States, potentially knocking them out of semifinal contention (if it's a lopsided 5-0 or 4-1 win). They look like they have a super capable lineup. But the rest of their schedule is so difficult, I can see why they're not in your top 7 most likely to reach the semifinals. Hard to see them beating Middle States, Texas, and Nor Cal back to back to back. Yet winning 2 out of 3 might leave them on the wrong side of tiebreakers.

Well, it appears several of the higher rated players on their roster are not eligible having not played enough matches. And yes, they have a tougher schedule than many others.

 

[Hawg61]

I am looking for Intermountain to come through BIG in 18s 4.0.... a quick roster check shows them bringing all of their over 40 roster from last week’s semifinal loss to Texas, and most of those players will be sitting on the sidelines while their young guns play for the national title. Their top singles player is a legit 5.0 player, as evidenced by his play at USTA On Campus Nationals for BYU. It will be Ringer Central this week at the men’s 4.0 Nationals, and I’ll take Intermountain for the title, with Texas coming in a close second place. Time permitting, I will drive over from the Las Vegas Challenger at UNLV to catch the Sunday finals. One thing is certain...there will be no 4.0 level players on court at either event

 

[Vox Rationis]

Well, it appears several of the higher rated players on their roster are not eligible having not played enough matches. And yes, they have a tougher schedule than many others.

Yep. Even taking that into account I like their chances of beating at least middle states. Hopefully MS goes in expecting a tough battle. You don't want to underestimate a team like that.

 

[Vox Rationis]

I am looking for Intermountain to come through BIG in 18s 4.0.... a quick roster check shows them bringing all of their over 40 roster from last week’s semifinal loss to Texas, and most of those players will be sitting on the sidelines while their young guns play for the national title. Their top singles player is a legit 5.0 player, as evidenced by his play at USTA On Campus Nationals for BYU. It will be Ringer Central this week at the men’s 4.0 Nationals, and I’ll take Intermountain for the title, with Texas coming in a close second place. Time permitting, I will drive over from the Las Vegas Challenger at UNLV to catch the Sunday finals. One thing is certain...there will be no 4.0 level players on court at either event

Former 3 star, top 300 recruit. Which means he self-rated incorrectly. Wonder why no one filed a grievance? Maybe because he was only playing doubles 3 and keeping it close...

 

[J_R_B]

I’m hoping middle states 4.0 men can shock the world !

Good luck, man. All of MS is rooting for you guys.

 

[J_R_B]

Former 3 star, top 300 recruit. Which means he self-rated incorrectly. Wonder why no one filed a grievance? Maybe because he was only playing doubles 3 and keeping it close...

same FL captain (along with 2 other pals) from their 18+ 4.0 nationals team last year. Looks like along with the 3 former 2018 nationals players - recruited 8 self rates of their 19 rostered players. Funny enough they had a 3.5s who is now 4.5 so DQ'ed from nationals competition (DQ'ed after 2 matches this year at 4.0 and played 1 3.5 match last year).

also interesting that they finished 4th in their local league going 4-3 then didnt lose a match after local league. Ran the table and beat the 7-0 local league team when it mattered in their first playoff round and then went undefeated in post season rounds.

I am looking for Intermountain to come through BIG in 18s 4.0.... a quick roster check shows them bringing all of their over 40 roster from last week’s semifinal loss to Texas, and most of those players will be sitting on the sidelines while their young guns play for the national title. Their top singles player is a legit 5.0 player, as evidenced by his play at USTA On Campus Nationals for BYU. It will be Ringer Central this week at the men’s 4.0 Nationals, and I’ll take Intermountain for the title, with Texas coming in a close second place. Time permitting, I will drive over from the Las Vegas Challenger at UNLV to catch the Sunday finals. One thing is certain...there will be no 4.0 level players on court at either event

It's stuff like this that makes me root for Middle States even harder. I know a bunch of the players on that team. There is nothing at all questionable about anyone on their roster. I haven't checked the full roster, but they may not even have a single S-rate, and certainly none of the key players on the team. They have a bunch of guys who are borderline 4.0/4.5 who have legitimately bumped up and down a couple times over the last 10 years. 2 of their top 3 singles players are 40+, including one guy who I think is probably in his 50s. Both of those guys are in phenomenal shape and will run, run, run all day long and never miss.

 

[norcal]

Former 3 star, top 300 recruit. Which means he self-rated incorrectly. Wonder why no one filed a grievance? Maybe because he was only playing doubles 3 and keeping it close...

5.0 player playing line 3 doubles on a 4.0 team. Sounds legit.

 

[schmke]

5.0 player playing line 3 doubles on a 4.0 team. Sounds legit.

It is like the USTA encourages this sort of stuff as teams feel it is required to have a shot at winning and the USTA seemingly does nothing to police it or stop it. it isn't just this individual or Texas that is oft mentioned, but other areas do it too.

And I've heard of situations where a section takes steps to try to do something and National overrules them and reverses a decision. Hearing about a case like this playing out now, so stay tuned.

 

[djkahn86]

MS... why not us, lol.. weather is great in vegas. hardest part is walking past all the distractions this place has to offer!

 

[schmke]

Well, the first weekend played in Orlando, the first weekend rain is disrupting things. The good news is they are proactively changing the schedule to play more on Friday, the bad news is the weather on Saturday looks like it may wash out most if not all of the matches. And still a chance of rain Sunday.

Why can't we just hold all Nationals in the Southwest where it is more likely to be dry and warm?

 

[Jack the Hack]

Well, the first weekend played in Orlando, the first weekend rain is disrupting things. The good news is they are proactively changing the schedule to play more on Friday, the bad news is the weather on Saturday looks like it may wash out most if not all of the matches. And still a chance of rain Sunday.

Why can't we just hold all Nationals in the Southwest where it is more likely to be dry and warm?

Orlando isn't looking too great for the next weekend for 40s 4.5+ Nationals either...





I'll wait to pass judgement until after it's over, but Vegas was wonderful for Nationals last year and it will be really hard to beat the weather we had there!

 

[Jack the Hack]

Aside from a complete Dallas-style washout and clusterf&ck like they had at the 18s 4.5 Nationals last year, my biggest fear is that they will automatically start making us play Fast 4 or no-ad Pro Sets in Orlando next week. I'll feel pretty ripped off if I fly across the country for that. In fact, I'd rather switch to clay and play in the rain than go to a modified scoring format.

 

[2ndServe]

F no, washed out last year at Nationals in Dallas last year and if it gets rained out again in Orlando I'm done with this **** paying for tickets, hotels, registration, taking off work to play 4 games is fcking sham. USTA giving FIFA a good run for dumbest decisions. Let's hold it in a place that rains all time, genius decision again.

Let's see there's a usta training center in Los Angeles that never rains and one in Orlando that rains all the time. Hmmm doesn't take a genius to figure out where you should hold it.

 

[schmke]

Aside from a complete Dallas-style washout and clusterf&ck like they had at the 18s 4.5 Nationals last year, my biggest fear is that they will automatically start making us play Fast 4 or no-ad Pro Sets in Orlando next week. I'll feel pretty ripped off if I fly across the country for that. In fact, I'd rather switch to clay and play in the rain than go to a modified scoring format.

I heard they already briefed captains that they may have to switch to 8, 6, or 4 game pro sets if necessary. They already have said they will play no-ad from the start.

 

[am1899]

18+ 4.0 women Eastern & Texas tied 2-2. #1 doubles is the decider...about to go to a supertiebreak.

 

[schmke]

18+ 4.0 women Eastern & Texas tied 2-2. #1 doubles is the decider...about to go to a supertiebreak.

That would be a nice upset for Eastern and make it harder for Texas to make their expected semi spot.

 

[am1899]

That would be a nice upset for Eastern and make it harder for Texas to make their expected semi spot.

Texas pulled it out 10-5.

 

[djkahn86]

Squeaker between middle states and florida. Two match tiebreakers to decide it. 3-2 middle states sneak over the finish line. Windy this morning.

 

[2ndServe]

Well done again USTA, I hope you guys don't have to play in a hurricane, hmmm who would thought there might be tropical storms near Florida

 

[Vox Rationis]

Squeaker between middle states and florida. Two match tiebreakers to decide it. 3-2 middle states sneak over the finish line. Windy this morning.

Congrats! Tough battle. You guys have a good remaining schedule. I like your chances. And anything can happen once you make the final day.

 

[Jack the Hack]

I heard they already briefed captains that they may have to switch to 8, 6, or 4 game pro sets if necessary. They already have said they will play no-ad from the start.

Do you know if they are actually playing full matches, but just with no-ad today? I was looking at the scores, and I know that the USTA has a conversion chart where they can make a Fast 4 format score into a regular full set score in TennisLink... but by what is posted, it seems like real matches today? Do you have a spy on the ground that can dish the scoop on this?

 

[am1899]

18+ 4.0 Men’s - I caught a bit of a Intermountain vs Southern doubles match before I left for the day. Absolute silliness on that court - especially one of the IM players. Wow.

 

[Jack the Hack]

18+ 4.0 Men’s - I caught a bit of a Intermountain vs Southern doubles match before I left for the day. Absolute silliness on that court - especially one of the IM players. Wow.

By silliness, I assume you mean that he was playing way over the 4.0 level, correct?

Some of Intermountain scores against PNW were pretty bleak. 1 Singles: 6-0, 6-0 2 Singles: 6-0, 6-1 3rd Dubs: 6-0, 6-0. I know several of those PNW players and they definitely do not suck. In fact, TennisRecord has both of PNW's singles guys listed as 3.87s, which is on the higher end of 4.0... not a level where they should be getting double bageled by "equal" competition.

 

[am1899]

By silliness, I assume you mean that he was playing way over the 4.0 level, correct?

While I was watching, he hit some absolute rocket forehands, and quite a few serves that looked to me beyond what a 4.0 should be capable of. He also missed a few shots that I thought he should have made. But it almost looked to me like he was toying around a bit. Hard to say definitively...but yeah, sure looked he was above level. I’d be comfortable assessing that the other 3 players were better than average or even strong themselves for 4.0 level. And the 4th guy was pretty obviously better than all 3 of them.

 

[tennis_tater]

Last three courts for Intermountain v Southern were TBs with Intermountain saving match points on the final deciding court and winning it 15-13 in the end.