What can Nole learn from his M1000 finals

[GabeT]

In 2012 Nole lost to Federer at Cincy. It was his 10th loss in 22 M1000 finals. For those that claim that Nole is simply better at Bo3 finals at that time his M1000 conversion rate was 45%. His Slams conversion rate is 50% today.

But since then Nole has won all 12 M1000 finals, an incredible achievement. As comparison in the same period (post Cincy 2012) Nadal reached 10 Masters finals but won only six.

So Nole had a relatively bad M1000 finals record but completely turned it around. Can he learn from this to improve his Slams finals record? Nole is still reaching a lot of Slams finals, more than anyone else having reached 10 of the last 14 Slam finals. Chances are he will reach several more. If he could raise the percentage of finals won it would be great for him. Does what he did at the M1000 provide any guide?

PS: I checked the numbers but may have made a mistake. Let me know if you spot a math or data error.

Edit: interestingly, at the time of the Cincy 2012 final Nole Slams final conversion rate was 62%, having won 5 of his 8 finals. So since then his Slams finals win ratio came down a bit while his M1000 finals win ratio simply exploded.

Edit 2: and to make it even more interesting Nole's results in YEC were spectacular during this period. So he managed to win all the finals he reached in both YEC and M1000, increase the percentage of Slam finals he reached, yet win a smaller percentage of Slam finals! Why?

 

[tennisaddict]

Unfortunately it does not provide a guide for future.

The way I would interpret this data is to compare his conversion rate in masters vs majors starting 2011 (when he became a much improved player).

2011-mid 2015 is a HUGE period and we don't need to deal with any outliers or statistical anomalies.

It is clear that he is a different player in BO3 as opposed to BO5.

 

[GabeT]

Unfortunately it does not provide a guide for future.

The way I would interpret this data is to compare his conversion rate in masters vs majors starting 2011 (when he became a much improved player).

2011-mid 2015 is a HUGE period and we don't need to deal with any outliers or statistical anomalies.

It is clear that he is a different player in BO3 as opposed to BO5.

But it's not clear at all. Since 2011 Nole reached a much higher percentage of Slam finals than he reached M1000 finals. In that time he reached 71% of all the Slam finals but only 53% of Masters finals.

If anything Nole is a better Bo5 player than he is a Bo3. He finds it easier to reach a Slam final than to reach a Masters final. But for some reason his ability to turn those finals into a win went down for Slams but went up for Masters.

 

[MichaelNadal]

But it's not clear at all. Since 2011 Nole reached a much higher percentage of Slam finals than he reached M1000 finals. In that time he reached 71% of all the Slam finals but only 53% of Masters finals.

If anything Nole is a better Bo5 player than he is a Bo3. He finds it easier to reach a Slam final than to reach a Masters final. But for some reason his ability to turn those finals into a win went down for Slams but went up for Masters.

He's easier to break down over a longer match, late into a tournament. Kind of the opposite of #KR

 

[AngieB]

#majors in #minors. GirlBye

#AngiesLyst​

 

[GabeT]

He's easier to break down over a longer match, late into a tournament. Kind of the opposite of #KR

If he were getting worse at lasting all five sets why did his ability to reach the finals, which requires winning six Bo5 matches, actually go up, and go up a lot? If he were actually easier to break down later in a tournament he should have been reaching less, not more Slam finals.

In this period everything improved for Nole, including winning Slam matches, EXCEPT for winning Slam finals. His winning % in all other finals is almost 100%!

Very strange.

 

[GabeT]

majors in minors.

So stupid. Sigh, should have known better than to read this troll.

 

[RF-18]

So stupid. Sigh, should have known better than to read this troll.

Ignore that obsessive creature. For someone who hates Novak that much it is scary to see the obsession.

I hope Novak is safe.

 

[MichaelNadal]

If he were getting worse at lasting all five sets why did his ability to reach the finals, which requires winning six Bo5 matches, actually go up, and go up a lot? If he were actually easier to break down later in a tournament he should have been reaching less, not more Slam finals.

In this period everything improved for Nole, including winning Slam matches, EXCEPT for winning Slam finals. His winning % in all other finals is almost 100%!

Very strange.

Good point. I guess it's just the Nadal factor then

 

[tennisaddict]

But it's not clear at all. Since 2011 Nole reached a much higher percentage of Slam finals than he reached M1000 finals. In that time he reached 71% of all the Slam finals but only 53% of Masters finals.

If anything Nole is a better Bo5 player than he is a Bo3. He finds it easier to reach a Slam final than to reach a Masters final. But for some reason his ability to turn those finals into a win went down for Slams but went up for Masters.

Novak's performance in Masters :

2011 - of 7 tournaments, 5 wins and 1 final
2012 - of 9 tournaments, 3 wins, 3 finals and 1 SF.
2013 - of 9 tournaments, 3 wins and 2 SF
2014 - of 8 tournaments, 4 wins and 2 SF
2015 - of 4 tournaments, 4 wins

Total : 37 Masters - 19 wins, 4 finals which gives a 62% finals rate.

Now, coming to majors :

Total : 18 majors - 7 wins, 6 finals which gives a 72% finals rate

The better conversion rate can be easily attributed to tanking Paris in 2011/2012 and USO series in 2014 (marriage).

So, by and large his final performances mirror the same.

He wins 19/23 master finals while he has won 7/13 majors.

 

[GabeT]

Novak's performance in Masters :

2011 - of 7 tournaments, 5 wins and 1 final
2012 - of 9 tournaments, 3 wins, 3 finals and 1 SF.
2013 - of 9 tournaments, 3 wins and 2 SF
2014 - of 8 tournaments, 4 wins and 2 SF
2015 - of 4 tournaments, 4 wins

Total : 37 Masters - 19 wins, 4 finals which gives a 62% finals rate.

Now, coming to majors :

Total : 18 majors - 7 wins, 6 finals which gives a 72% finals rate

The better conversion rate can be easily attributed to tanking Paris in 2011/2012 and USO series in 2014 (marriage).

So, by and large his final performances mirror the same.

He wins 19/23 master finals while he has won 7/13 majors.

I'm not sure I follow you. We may be talking about different things.

My point is that in recent years Nole's ability to reach a final was greater for a Slams than for Masters. So talk that he is naturally better at Bo3 is not supported by the facts.

At the same time Nole's ability to win a final went up for Masters. Dramatically so. He won the last 12 masters finals he reached.

If he is finding it easier to reach Slam finals than to reach Masters finals AND his ability to win Slams finals also got better, why did his ability to win Slam finals get worse?

It's not clear to me.

 

[tennisaddict]

I'm not sure I follow you. We may be talking about different things.

My point is that in recent years Nole's ability to reach a final was greater for a Slams than for Masters. So talk that he is naturally better at Bo3 is not supported by the facts.

At the same time Nole's ability to win a final went up for Masters. Dramatically so. He won the last 12 masters finals he reached.

If he is finding it easier to reach Slam finals than to reach Masters finals AND his ability to win Slams finals also got better, why did his ability to win Slam finals get worse?

It's not clear to me.

The data i showed you is from 2011. The rate at which Novak reaches finals at masters and majors is not much different ( 62% vs 72 %). Take out the 4 masters that he tanked and it is 70% vs 72%.

Pretty much a wash.

Now look at his performance in the finals, again starting from 2011, in both masters and majors and the difference in conversion is huge pointing to his frailty in BO5.

 

[GabeT]

The data i showed you is from 2011. The rate at which Novak reaches finals at masters and majors is not much different ( 62% vs 72 %). Take out the 4 masters that he tanked and it is 70% vs 72%.

Pretty much a wash.

Now look at his performance in the finals, again starting from 2011, in both masters and majors and the difference in conversion is huge pointing to his frailty in BO5.

Wait. Even if I agree with you that he "tanked" or that 72% is the same as 62%, which I'm not sure I do, the following remains:

In recent years Nole's ability to reach Masters finals has gone up.

His ability to reach Slam finals has also gone up.

His ability to win a Masters final, once he reaches it, has gone up.

But his ability to win a Slams final, once he reaches it, has gone down.

This is what is puzzling. If he were not good at Bo5, or getting worse, why is he reaching so many Slam finals?