What do you think Nadal's chances of winning the 2020 us open are?

skypadq

skypadq

Hall of Fame
i really hope that nadal wins both 2020 USO AND 2020 RG
but novak djokovic is biggest problem
i hope that thiem goes novak 's draw and somebody beat novak in some style

thiem or med or tsitsipas or whoever

even if rafa vs djoker 2020 USO FINAL happens , i think rafa can beat djoker in final
us open court is slow and high bounce
rafa beat djoker two time in us open final
 
I had assumed Thiem would do both if possible. If I were him and had to choose, I’d get my first major out of the way in the US and beat Nadal at the French next year. Nadal has been playing a little coy during the break but you know he’s just pacing himself for the French. He’ll be feeling tip top.
 
It’d be strange to watch a Nadal match without the crowd factor. Without an occasional leaping quadruple fist pump, not sure if he could get himself going in the big moments.
 
0,1%

Nadal is as much an underdog as Jordan Thompson. It's a fact, Djoko has this right in his hand.

You could argue it would be more of a shock to see Nadal win UO 2020, than it was then Ivanesevic won WB 2001.
 
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Hitman said:
In such a match, how do you see it going?
Click to expand...

5 sets! Beyond that, Im not sure. Thiem has made serious inroads on Rafa, and he no longer has the same fear factor as he has had in the past against him.

Rafa would have to use some of the efficiency tactics he has adapted since bringing Moya in. He would have to shorten points and spend plenty of time finishing at net whenever he sees Thiem slicing and falling into an overly defensive court position. Normally I love the way Rafa can stand and bang and make players lose their legs, but that tactic doesn't work against Thiem or Djokovic. He needs to use his attacking nouse along with the patient point construction.

As for Thiem, he knows his game plan for Rafa - a repeat of the AO match. He knows that can work, he just has to execute on one of the biggest stages in tennis. That final execution, the possible mental hurdle, is the big issue for Thiem imo.

I do know that the quality would be there for sure, regardless of who wins. Thiem is now a very reliable big match player imo.

What sort of match do you think it would be?
 
SeeItHitIt said:
Has Uncle Tony announced how slow the USO courts will be yet?
Click to expand...
Since when does Rafa like slow?
Rafa likes bouncy.
Z70zrrL.jpg
 
Really tough to predict the form of players and their physical condition, but I generally agree with the analysis that there's a great chance one of Nadal/Djokovic/Thiem/Medvedev takes the title, assuming they're all in pretty good shape/form.
 
Nobody will be in form, so the most talented player wins.
Medvedev was physically superior last year, but Rafa won via talent.
 
Youzhny might be mad scientisting Shaplolov right now. He has a PHD in something and Shapo is a freak. I’ll give him a five percent chance at the US Open.
 
Swingmaster said:
It’d be strange to watch a Nadal match without the crowd factor. Without an occasional leaping quadruple fist pump, not sure if he could get himself going in the big moments.
Click to expand...
he can, doubt excitement from the crowd is needed..he'll jack himself up
 
First of all, the fact that people seriously don't think Thiem will play the US Open after he just lost in a hardcourt slam final that he could have won is nutty to me. Thiem wouldn't throw away a slam that he can win for a small tournament on clay, regardless of where it is. The guy would go to Antarctica to play if there was an event there. Look for him to play both slams. If so, I think Djokovic is the favorite at the US Open, Thiem next and then Rafa. I think Thiem will be in the best form with all the matches he has played, and I pick him to win it. As for Rafa, I really don't think he is going to play. If he plays and contracts the virus then he won't be playing RG and any warmup events on clay. Should he take that risk? I wouldn't if I was him. He also won't lose points due to the new point system during the pandemic.
 
netlets said:
First of all, the fact that people seriously don't think Thiem will play the US Open after he just lost in a hardcourt slam final that he could have won is nutty to me. Thiem wouldn't throw away a slam that he can win for a small tournament on clay, regardless of where it is. The guy would go to Antarctica to play if there was an event there. Look for him to play both slams. If so, I think Djokovic is the favorite at the US Open, Thiem next and then Rafa. I think Thiem will be in the best form with all the matches he has played, and I pick him to win it. As for Rafa, I really don't think he is going to play. If he plays and contracts the virus then he won't be playing RG and any warmup events on clay. Should he take that risk? I wouldn't if I was him. He also won't lose points due to the new point system during the pandemic.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything, but what if everyone just says screw the US Open and it’s seen as a joke with an asterisk soon to be attached? Maybe Thiem would want forgo the taxing travel and focus on taking down a still prime Nadal at a tournament (RG) that is looking relatively credible at this point.
 
Centrius said:
I would not bet on it, after all he hasn't defended a slam outside of the FO.
Click to expand...

I don't think this is especially meaningful. Let's look at those previous 6 opportunities:

09 Wimbledon: didn't play
10 AO: retired due to injury
11 Wimbledon: lost in final to peak Djokovic
11 USO: lost in final to peak Djokovic
14 USO: didn't play
18 USO: retired due to injury
20 USO: ???

He's either withdrawn, retired, or lost to a GOAT-level player in the final. Given the extended break, he's probably going to be completely healthy heading into this tournament, and he's not going to face a player as good as peak Djokovic at any stage (though current Djokovic is probably still the favorite).

His chances to defend his title this year will be better than in any of his previous non-RG slams.
 
Subway Tennis said:
5 sets! Beyond that, Im not sure. Thiem has made serious inroads on Rafa, and he no longer has the same fear factor as he has had in the past against him.

Rafa would have to use some of the efficiency tactics he has adapted since bringing Moya in. He would have to shorten points and spend plenty of time finishing at net whenever he sees Thiem slicing and falling into an overly defensive court position. Normally I love the way Rafa can stand and bang and make players lose their legs, but that tactic doesn't work against Thiem or Djokovic. He needs to use his attacking nouse along with the patient point construction.

As for Thiem, he knows his game plan for Rafa - a repeat of the AO match. He knows that can work, he just has to execute on one of the biggest stages in tennis. That final execution, the possible mental hurdle, is the big issue for Thiem imo.

I do know that the quality would be there for sure, regardless of who wins. Thiem is now a very reliable big match player imo.

What sort of match do you think it would be?
Click to expand...


I think Nadal would need to win it in four sets maximum, if it goes five I will give advantage to Thiem. As you said, Thiem has crossed a certain line with Nadal on HC now, he pushed him to the brink at USO 2018 and then beat him at AO 2020. I think Nadal would likely be the aggressor in the match, he will look to step into the court while Thiem will want to turn it into a war of attrition, which is a trap that Rafa will not want to fall into.

So, Rafa in either 3 or 4 sets, but Thiem if it goes 5. :D
 
Centrius said:
I would not bet on it, after all he hasn't defended a slam outside of the FO.
Click to expand...
Well he Did Not Play 2014 US Open, after winning 2013 US Open.
And he Did Not Play 2009 Wimbledon, after winning 2008 Wimbledon.
Also Rafa defended a hardcourt non-slam last year for the first time ever, so this era of Rafa is different.
v61oaiX.jpg
 
Last edited by a moderator:
daggerman said:
I don't think this is especially meaningful. Let's look at those previous 6 opportunities:

09 Wimbledon: didn't play
10 AO: retired due to injury
11 Wimbledon: lost in final to peak Djokovic
11 USO: lost in final to peak Djokovic
14 USO: didn't play
18 USO: retired due to injury
20 USO: ???

He's either withdrawn, retired, or lost to a GOAT-level player in the final. Given the extended break, he's probably going to be completely healthy heading into this tournament, and he's not going to face a player as good as peak Djokovic at any stage (though current Djokovic is probably still the favorite).

His chances to defend his title this year will be better than in any of his previous non-RG slams.
Click to expand...
NADALalot said:
Well he Did Not Play 2014 US Open, after winning 2013 US Open.
And he Did Not Play 2009 Wimbledon, after winning 2008 Wimbledon.
Also Rafa defended a hardcourt non-slam last year for the first time ever, so this era of Rafa is different.
v61oaiX.jpg
Click to expand...

Injury, withdraw or whatever, my point is he has not been able to do it.
 
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