What do you think Nadal's chances of winning the 2020 us open are?

If he plays, he will be the third favorite to win the title after Thiem and Djokovic.
:)
 
Sorry_to_tell_you_mate said:
He's not playing any HC tournaments before RG.
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The US Open means more to Rafa than Roland Garros, because Rafa wants to tie Connors-Sampras-Federer with FIVE US Opens.
Any other year I'd say Roland Garros is the bigger priority, but this year its the US Open.

Plus there is no risk anyway, because if Rafa is exhausted after winning the US Open, he can skip Madrid, skip Rome and just turn up for Roland Garros in brilliant ball-striking form, and he trained on clay in July so he'll adapt quickly from hardcourt to clay.

Anyway, if Rafa had won the US Open, I don't think he'd even worry about how he feels at Roland Garros, because he'd already have won his 20th slam and 5th US Open, so he clearly made the right decision.
 
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daggerman said:
I don't think this is especially meaningful. Let's look at those previous 6 opportunities:

09 Wimbledon: didn't play
10 AO: retired due to injury
11 Wimbledon: lost in final to peak Djokovic
11 USO: lost in final to peak Djokovic
14 USO: didn't play
18 USO: retired due to injury
20 USO: ???

He's either withdrawn, retired, or lost to a GOAT-level player in the final. Given the extended break, he's probably going to be completely healthy heading into this tournament, and he's not going to face a player as good as peak Djokovic at any stage (though current Djokovic is probably still the favorite).

His chances to defend his title this year will be better than in any of his previous non-RG slams.
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it's never been meaningful, but some people here are obsessed with it...a much bigger deal for instance is winning all majors multiple times...and of course then eventual slam totals when they're gone
 
Swingmaster said:
I agree with everything, but what if everyone just says screw the US Open and it’s seen as a joke with an asterisk soon to be attached? Maybe Thiem would want forgo the taxing travel and focus on taking down a still prime Nadal at a tournament (RG) that is looking relatively credible at this point.
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Could be, but if they hold the US Open whoever wins will have had to go through the draw and win the tournament, so it will be considered a Slam win. How many people bring up the fact the Jan Kodes' Wimbledon title isn't legit these days? The great majority of posters on this site may not know the field was weakened that year. I believe the asterisk would apply though if the person that wins the Slam ends up with just that one.
 
I’d rate it 75% he will win. 25% of me says he will hold back so he can guarantee the FO win
 
netlets said:
Could be, but if they hold the US Open whoever wins will have had to go through the draw and win the tournament, so it will be considered a Slam win. How many people bring up the fact the Jan Kodes' Wimbledon title isn't legit these days? The great majority of posters on this site may not know the field was weakened that year. I believe the asterisk would apply though if the person that wins the Slam ends up with just that one.
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But there are some examples, like when Fed beat Sampras at Wimbledon. That was a momentous win that everyone looks back on, even though Fed lost right after. Soderling beating Nadal at the French is a match that will always be etched in my memory, more so than Fed beating Soderling for the title. You’re probably right, but if Thiem wants that all-time legacy win, it’s gotta be by beating Nadal at the French.
 
Tennis sprew said:
I’d rate it 75% he will win. 25% of me says he will hold back so he can guarantee the FO win
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I wonder if Nadal was being truthful when he claimed he hadn’t touched a racket in months or whatever he said. You know those guys, including Nadal, like to temper expectations when they can. Why wouldn’t he touch a racket? Rest? Injury maintenance?
 
Swingmaster said:
I wonder if Nadal was being truthful when he claimed he hadn’t touched a racket in months or whatever he said. You know those guys, including Nadal, like to temper expectations when they can. Why wouldn’t he touch a racket? Rest? Injury maintenance?
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I'm not sure but Rafa has no reason to tell media the truth.
 
Swingmaster said:
I wonder if Nadal was being truthful when he claimed he hadn’t touched a racket in months or whatever he said. You know those guys, including Nadal, like to temper expectations when they can. Why wouldn’t he touch a racket? Rest? Injury maintenance?
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I think he loves his PlayStation too much, he probably hasn’t but if I had the chance I would have immediately gone and hit.
 
Swingmaster said:
Why not. The media loves Nadal. Everyone loves Nadal, except when he is holding his hand up to halt play or taking way too long to serve.
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Because the media are unprofessional and frequently don't do enough research, and ask the stupidest questions.
Well he doesn't take way too long to serve, or else the shot clock would tell us that.
 
NADALalot said:
The US Open means more to Rafa than Roland Garros, because Rafa wants to tie Connors-Sampras-Federer with FIVE US Opens.
Any other year I'd say Roland Garros is the bigger priority, but this year its the US Open.
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Does he really though? Seems like more of a fan desire. I doubt he's jumping at the thought of tying a record 3 other people already have.

Sometimes players don't even know about records like that, let alone prioritize them.
 
MeatTornado said:
Does he really though? Seems like more of a fan desire. I doubt he's jumping at the thought of tying a record 3 other people already have.

Sometimes players don't even know about records like that, let alone prioritize them.
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I'm 100% sure Rafa knows about that record.
Its a huge record, and it has enormous implications historically.
I mean can you imagine tying the record at a slam that isn't even your best slam?
Sharing the record is a HUGE accomplishment, plus it puts him in the running for SIX.
 
MeatTornado said:
Does he really though? Seems like more of a fan desire. I doubt he's jumping at the thought of tying a record 3 other people already have.

Sometimes players don't even know about records like that, let alone prioritize them.
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Agreed. I’d wager that he’d rather have as many Frenches possible to put that record out of reach.
 
NADALalot said:
I'm 100% sure Rafa knows about that record.
Its a huge record, and it has enormous implications historically.
Sharing the record is a HUGE accomplishment, plus it puts him in the running for SIX.
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He definitely knows about it, but king of clay for eternity? Go with that one.
 
Swingmaster said:
Agreed. I’d wager that he’d rather have as many Frenches possible to put that record out of reach.
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It already is out of reach, plus you talk like he won't win the French Open just because he wins the US Open....
Whoever does well at the US Open will be in-form for the clay season, especially in Rafa's case because he adjusts very quickly to clay.
 
NADALalot said:
It already is out of reach, plus you talk like he won't win the French Open just because he wins the US Open....
Whoever does well at the US Open will be in-form for the clay season, especially in Rafa's case because he adjusts very quickly to clay.
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The guy said that this year’s US Open means more to Nadal then the French. That’s the question. Do you agree?
 
NADALalot said:
I'm 100% sure Rafa knows about that record.
Its a huge record, and it has enormous implications historically.
I mean can you imagine tying the record at a slam that isn't even your best slam?
Sharing the record is a HUGE accomplishment, plus it puts him in the running for SIX.
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Yeah. Federer's done it twice and I don't think I ever heard him talk about it.

Edit: actually 3 times if we're just counting Open Era (which we are if you're using 5 for the USO record). Roger's done it twice in Australia. In 2010 he tied Andre with 4 and in 2018 he tied Novak with 6. And then obviously the 08 US Open makes 3.
 
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MeatTornado said:
If 12 isn't already out of reach then 13 won't be either lol
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You say that now, but there will be a future freak who comes along. Maybe like a Greek Freak type fast monster. The basketball player, if you know him. Someone like that’ll come along and Nadal will wish he had 13.
 
myth said:
If it's about talent, Nadal can't win. :p :p
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2019 Wimbledon Final had 422 points.
Federer came to the net 65 times (won 51).

2019 US Open Final had 341 points.
Nadal came to the net 66 times (won 51).
 
Swingmaster said:
The guy said that this year’s US Open means more to Nadal then the French. That’s the question. Do you agree?
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Obviously, because Rafa can tie the US Open record, whereas he already has massive ownership of the French Open record.
Connors-Sampras-Federer and Rafa can join them.
And Rafa choosing to play the US Open when catching the virus would lead to him missing the French Open.....says a lot about his priorities, especially when he was one of the guys most critical of the US Open a month ago.
 
NADALalot said:
2019 Wimbledon Final had 422 points.
Federer came to the net 65 times (won 51).

2019 US Open Final had 341 points.
Nadal came to the net 66 times (won 51).
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He didn't get close to the net in that match. :) :)

Definition of talent: 5 shots 1 game

 
I'd say 0% because I don't think he's playing it. Even if he plays it, 25% because RG is too important for him to risk a deep run at a tournament where he will probably lose in the end.
 
Breakpointerer said:
Shanghai 14 and Wimbly'14 right?
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Yep. Technically the Shanghai hold had 1 service winner but it was 100% as good as an ace since Djokovic just barely grazed the ball with his racquet frame, zero chance to get it back. If you remember, Fred also performed a four-ace trick against the nadal in Shanghai '06 to get out of a 0-30 hole. Some PETE-worthy stuff, too bad Fred couldn't bring it more often to some big matches, hur hur.
 
AnOctorokForDinner said:
Yep. Technically the Shanghai hold had 1 service winner but it was 100% as good as an ace since Djokovic just barely grazed the ball with his racquet frame, zero chance to get it back. If you remember, Fred also performed a four-ace trick against the nadal in Shanghai '06 to get out of a 0-30 hole. Some PETE-worthy stuff, too bad Fred couldn't bring it more often to some big matches, hur hur.
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Yep I remember the one vs Nadal at the TMC.
 
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