What does it mean for Nadal if he is unable to win RG this year?

Service Ace

Hall of Fame
I know, slim to nil and slim is packing his bags...

But on the off chance that he loses early for some reason other than injury, do we still like Nadal's chances to break the slam record? Is his confidence irreparably destroyed going into grass and hard court season to where he may not win any Grand Slams this year or going forward?

Can Nadal afford to lose RG this year under any circumstances?
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
Nadal never gives up. I think itd make him more determined going into the rest of the reason if he didn't win this slam.
 

GabeT

Legend
It will mean someone beat him.

Any other questions? Please, it’s no bother. I’m here all week.
 

Spider

Hall of Fame
It will take something special to stop him at RG. But it has happened in 2009 & 2015 and both times he played someone on fire on the other side.

I dont think there will be a repeat of 2016, he will be very careful this year. So let's see if someone can step up and make it count. It is going to be very very difficult.
 

Jonas78

Legend
I know, slim to nil and slim is packing his bags...

But on the off chance that he loses early for some reason other than injury, do we still like Nadal's chances to break the slam record? Is his confidence irreparably destroyed going into grass and hard court season to where he may not win any Grand Slams this year or going forward?

Can Nadal afford to lose RG this year under any circumstances?
Has that ever happened?
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
yes, we've seen what happens when he doesn't win RG in a year - 2009, 2015,2016. :oops::D
What? 2009 that he won The AO, Indian Wells, Monte carlo, Barcelona, Rome, and with Finals in Rotterdam and Madrid till he got injured?
That's a better season than most players outwith the top 3 can only dream of , and it pretty much ended half the year in:D.
2015 and 16 he was playing rubbish, so he was never going to win anything.
Right now hes apparently injury free, and hes playing well. Big difference.
Therefore, if he somehow didn't win RG, I wouldn't expect a major slump the rest of the season this time.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
Can't say with certainty that the slam race would be over because the field is still so weak, but it would be a huge blow IMO, particularly if Federer bags even one of Wimbledon or the USO. He's hit or miss on HC even at the USO, and I feel like the clay season gives him massive confidence, so much so that if he did lose at RG he might not win another slam until next clay season. At which point he's another year older.

99% chance this is a moot point anyway though.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
What? 2009 that he won The AO, Indian Wells, Monte carlo, Barcelona, Rome, and with Finals in Rotterdam and Madrid till he got injured?
That's a better season than most players outwith the top 3 can only dream of , and it pretty much ended half the year in:D.
2015 and 16 he was playing rubbish, so he was never going to win anything.
Right now hes apparently injury free, and hes playing well. Big difference.
Therefore, if he somehow didn't win RG, I wouldn't expect a major slump the rest of the season this time.
I was talking about what happened after he lost RG in 2009, 'genius' !
his season went considerably downhill after that.

And correction : he won all that in 2009 and then got beat by a peaking Soderling at RG. It all went downhill for him after that. No injury. at RG. Just got plain beat.

actually that's perfectly correct.

Evidence :

a) No reports of Nadal being injured before the Soderling match.
b) Nadal had completely destroyed Hewitt in the round before. Hewitt took twice the games in 2007 & 2010 at RG than he did in 2009 (10 vs 5). An "injured" nadal doing much better than an uninjured prime Nadal ? yeah, right.
c) Nadal did not take a MTO in that Soderling match. If he had some problem ,he'd have taken one. We know he takes MTOs when he has any injury problem. Quite a few matches serve as evidence for it. If had a problem in the Soderling match, why did he not take a MTO ?
d) No mention of any injury in the post-match conference by Nadal. If there was some problem, he'd have mentioned it later.
e) Actually watch the match. Nadal is moving as well as ever.

Seeing all this, its clear that the knee problem was a concocted story from the Nadal camp afterwards. Alternate facts, if you will.

Here's the interview of nadal right after the match :

https://web.archive.org/web/2009062...erviews/2009-05-31/200905311243796048503.html

Interviewer explicitly asked him:

Q. You looked tired. Do you feelexhausted? Do you feel tired physicallyand mentally?

RAFAEL NADAL: No.

Q. You look a bit tired.

RAFAEL NADAL: No, no, I feel okay.


Now what is delusional is I've mentioned this to you before. You ran away that time. Now, you want to bring it up again ? :D

(https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/meles-were-in-one-of-the-great-transition-years.588036/page-8#post-11498096)
I didn't say Nadal skipped Wimbledon to save face for his loss to Soderling.

No, he was completely shocked by the loss and mentally shook up at that time.
The fake injury excuse was used by his camp to cover up for the loss well after the match --- as I've shown and proven completely.

He played 2 practice matches on grass ( vs Hewitt & Stan IIRC) in London. Was not still mentally recovered completely.
Then saw the tough draw ( Hewitt in R2, Roddick in QF, Murray in SF, Federer in F). Knew he wouldn't win. So withdrew and the injury excuse was extended for Wimbledon.

The next year's RG final has nothing whatsoever to do with this. Nadal played clearly better and Soderling played much worse.

Lets see if you can actually respond to the points I made in my previous post. a) to e) . Compelling evidence for a clear cut argument, isn't it ? ;)
---------

2016, he was actually playing some good tennis on clay , though not prime level.
2015, yeah, he was below par in the season for sure.
But point is , till now there is no instance where he's done really well after not winning RG. (from 2005 onwards) - 2009 is the biggest glaring example.

yeah, he's injury free now, in the clay season , as is the norm. from 2005-till now, he's only got injury affected in 2 clay tournaments - Rome 08 (blisters) and RG 16 (wrist injury? had to withdraw)

We'll see what happens after.
 

Apun94

Hall of Fame
I know, slim to nil and slim is packing his bags...

But on the off chance that he loses early for some reason other than injury, do we still like Nadal's chances to break the slam record? Is his confidence irreparably destroyed going into grass and hard court season to where he may not win any Grand Slams this year or going forward?

Can Nadal afford to lose RG this year under any circumstances?
It would mean that he did not win RG in 2018
 

Sunny Ali

Hall of Fame
I know, slim to nil and slim is packing his bags...

But on the off chance that he loses early for some reason other than injury, do we still like Nadal's chances to break the slam record? Is his confidence irreparably destroyed going into grass and hard court season to where he may not win any Grand Slams this year or going forward?

Can Nadal afford to lose RG this year under any circumstances?
Should he lose early, I'll be happy to send him Sunny Deol movies on Blu-Ray complete with English subtitles

 

fedmagic

New User
It means nothing for his clay legacy, had he lost to Djokovic in 2011, that would've ruined his clay legacy because Djokovic had a working plan to beat Nadal rather than simply redlining every point.
If he loses RG, it may derail his season and possibly be the end of his slam chase, will probably lose early at USO so he'll definitely not finish YE#1.
 
It shall mean one of three things:

1. Nadal has suffered an injury.
2. We have entered a parallel universe where Nadal is not unbeatable on clay.
3. Isnr.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Nadal losing in the 2018 would likely put the final nail in the coffin of the slam race. But I will never rule Nadal out. Knowing him, he'll learn how to serve and steal a Wimbledon.
 

Roddick85

Hall of Fame
Nadal looks great at the moment, super dominant, no one stands in his way on clay. Much like Federer, Nadal's main obstacle between him and another RG isn't a specific player, it's all about his health. He might be 5 years youngers than Federer, still he's at an age where injuries are more common and serious, especially when you consider his physical style and previous injuries. The only concern I have about Nadal and RG this year, is if he keeps his level up and goes on to win Madrid & Rome, will he be exhausted physically or injured by the time RG rolls around, with all those matches under his belt in a short period?
 

stephenclown

Professional
It’s sapuku. Though I find it quite boring, I don’t know about anyone losing his life playing with numbers.
Its actually Seppuku, no idea where sapuku came from because 'sa' is not even in the word... せ(se)っ(tsu - create a brief hold in the word hence the double p in romaji) ぷ (pu) く (ku)

On topic, I think he will struggle a little more than he has so far this year but still the likely favourite. More matches where he has to play at least 3 sets and unlikely to get so many default wins in early rounds.
 
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