What does it say about Carlos finishing the year outside the ATP top 2?

Will Carlos finish top 2 this year?


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Hmm, not worried about Alcaraz being #3 in the rankings. The guy is mercurial. I like that he can be on fire one day and a dud the next. He's human. He's also a big bag of emotions, which he kind of wears on his sleeve. He will win his fair share of titles before all is said and done, and provide us all with some very interesting tennis along the way. Why the obsession over consistently being #1 or #2? Is this a Big 3 hangover?
 
Hmm, not worried about Alcaraz being #3 in the rankings. The guy is mercurial. I like that he can be on fire one day and a dud the next. He's human. He's also a big bag of emotions, which he kind of wears on his sleeve. He will win his fair share of titles before all is said and done, and provide us all with some very interesting tennis along the way. Why the obsession over consistently being #1 or #2? Is this a Big 3 hangover?
Well, I would think being number one would be the goal no? At the very least, it is considered a big deal, or it used to be.
 
That's a good one, but a bit of a reputation win, perhaps. Even FAA has taken out Ruud this year.

Overall, four top 10 wins on the year -- Hurkacz and Tsitsipas at the United Cup, Alcaraz in Oz, and de Minaur at IW. Only one M1000 final. Compared to six losses.
Yes. But his top level is right there with anyone. He took the best version of Jannik past 3 hrs in Cincinnati.
 
A YE#3 would add to Alcaraz's mystique. How can a guy that peaks so high, that he can win 2 slam titles while also having a winning record vs Sinner, finish the year at #3?

The entire year is important. And I personally value weeks at #1 a ton. It involves a much larger sample size than 8 weeks out of the year. And this is no slam on Carlitos. He's one of my very favorite players. And honestly, he's the most exciting player to watch, IMHO. But......his inconsistency is a flaw. Let's call a spade a spade.

That said, barring injury, this Carlitos character will become a monster. He will become more consistent. And I hope that he and Sinner take the sport to levels never seen. Because at the end of the day, I don't have a dog in this fight. It feels great, TBH. It was awesome watching Carlitos bag the channel during the same year Sinner bagged the hard court slam.
 
If Zverev wins tomorrow, Zverev will slide into the number 2 ranking, and therefore putting Carlos the Shepherd into third.

Does this mean he is not a top 2 player in the world? Or does it mean he just did not have a top 2 season this year?

How often does the guy who wins the channel slam end up in 3rd at the end of the year?

He does have the ATP finals, but it seems fast indoor HC might be a problem for him.

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we all know what happens when you put that much pressure on Zverev though…
 
He has the highest ceiling on tour but he lacks consistency all year round.

What would you all take if you played pro tennis? A higher ceiling or consistent all year round? I would take a higher ceiling.
100% higher ceiling for the most epic moments.
And I think he will master the fastest indoor courts in big matches going forward. Him complaining about fast Paris courts today is a good sign, it is bugging him that he can’t yet figure out these speedy courts. Soo, I don’t think it means anything that he is finishing as 3rd if Zed wins tomorrow.
 
Djokovic at his age had 17 losses. He is fairly young. It should be ok if he is not top 2.

While lets give props to Zverev. He is having his second or most successful year ever.
Novak's losses in the 2008 season
Nadal 4x, Federer 2x, Murray 2x, Tsonga 2x, Simon, Roddick, Anderson, Karlovic, Safin

Alcaraz defeats in 2024
Djokovic, Zverev, Monfils, Humbert, VDP, Rublev, Monteiro, Dimitrov, Draper, Machac, Jarry


Novak's losses are to very strong names while most of Alcaraz's losses are to pathetic players
 
First, the GOAT conversation is only a small part of tennis. And although Sinner or Alcaraz might win 25 majors in the future, they're nowhere close now. Everything should not be reduced to the success of three very specific players.

To build a career and not just shoot for some mythical future, you need to win at all levels.

No, this isn't quite on the level of Federer - Roddick.

Ok, how about this? Slams are everything and without a slam you do not make it into the tennis HoF and no one would look at you as a very good player without one. In a top 50 players of all time list, all of them have a slam. Slam's are a barometer of success and anyone who says they are an underrated metric is a megadonk.


Slams are everything in tennis. When was the last player who said 'it was my dream as a kid of winning the madrid masters'.
 
Alcaraz's issue was that he underperformed at the other two slams, and even in masters, outside of winning IW, I believe he didn't make a single masters final. Lost semi in Miami, basically was absent on clay masters with an early loss to Rublev in Madrid, didn't play Canada, lost early in Cincy to Monfils, lost early in Shanghai, lost early in Paris. The slam wins will only get you so far, also no points for Olympics. Even at Wimbledon, he couldn't gain any more points, he could only defend them.
What do you mean that with the victory at Wimbledon he only defended the points from the previous year?

The ranking at the end of the season is based on the points scored during the calendar year, so the question of points he had to defend at Wimbledon goes beyond all this, ergo, it does not justify anything of his eventual third place finish.

However, it is clear that Alcaraz's season was missed by the RG-WB double, if you win two slams the season is positive regardless of status.
The problem is that as I said some time ago, compared to 2023, the Spaniard, I won't say he has deteriorated but he certainly hasn't become a better player in 2024.
Too many unacceptable defeats against opponents who on paper he should beat rather easily.
As well as a performance that to define as fluctuating is an understatement, bad in the two slams that he didn't win also due to the way he went out, and his overall performance in the masters 1000 was very bad.
Apart from the 2 slams and the Olympic silver, the other thing to save from this season is the 3-0 record (for now) against the true dominator of the circuit in 2024.

As for Zverev, I read that some are calling his 2024 season his second best season if not even his best.
Absolutely not better, even if he were to win Bercy and the ATP Finals, his best season would remain 2021, where he won the 1000 in Madrid, semi-final at the RG, Olympic gold in the singles, victory in Cincinnati, semi-final at the US Open, victory in Vienna and at the ATP Finals.
 
Honestly I think Zverev hasn't even been that impressive this year. It's not like he's been that consistent he's taken a lot of bad losses. 2021 is still clearly his best year and I don't think it's really all that close. Even in his two strong slam runs he was very nearly taken out early. I do think it's pretty damning on Alcaraz that his consistency has been so shoddy that he more likely than not will finish the year ranked behind Sascha. Doesn't take away from his slam wins but it's a serious problem that his form has fluctuated so much.
 
Been a weird year, that Zverev is number two or likely to be just shows how spotty Alcaraz has been. Zverev hasn't impressed at all this year, prime example of how efficacy isn't the same as playing well.
 
Honestly I think Zverev hasn't even been that impressive this year. It's not like he's been that consistent he's taken a lot of bad losses. 2021 is still clearly his best year and I don't think it's really all that close. Even in his two strong slam runs he was very nearly taken out early. I do think it's pretty damning on Alcaraz that his consistency has been so shoddy that he more likely than not will finish the year ranked behind Sascha. Doesn't take away from his slam wins but it's a serious problem that his form has fluctuated so much.
Oh is it ?

Then why is he having similar number of pts
8280 in 2021
Possibly 7315 by end of this week. With atp finals to go.
 
That he lacks consistency throughout the year. At least he brings his best tennis in the schlems though. I’d rather be him than all these #NextGen MUGS who can only show up in BO3 tournaments.
 
Been a weird year, that Zverev is number two or likely to be just shows how spotty Alcaraz has been. Zverev hasn't impressed at all this year, prime example of how efficacy isn't the same as playing well.
Good point. Says more about Carlos the Shepherd than Zverev.
 
Been a weird year, that Zverev is number two or likely to be just shows how spotty Alcaraz has been. Zverev has impressed at all this year, prime example of how efficacy isn't the same as playing well.
I assume you meant hasn't. Anyway, if so agreed you compare to 2021 where he beat three top 10ers in dominant fashion at both his masters wins and compare that to Rome this year where he's scraping by Tabilo. Losing three straight matches including two slam matches to taylor freaking fritz. Most of his losses in BO3 this year have been ugly it really has not been that strong of a year. Even with his strong AO/RG runs he needed 3 final set tiebreakers in the first week against bums to make the runs he did. Then he choked his ass off despite having the best level at the tourney in the AO and I have some sympathy for him at the FO because that call in the 5th really hosed him and he did play very well but man this type of year does not make sense for a world number 2. Zverev in 2021 had 2 quality masters wins hard fought slam losses at 3/4 slams and the crown jewel of a really strong WTF performance and ended number 3 with probably less points then he'll end up with this year.

IMO this has been a year where he hasn't flashed the real top end stuff he's capable of very often and he hasn't had the consistency and it'll be his best ye finish ever. Bizarre.
 
Good point. Says more about Carlos the Shepherd than Zverev.
It's a more extreme version of Murray topping Federer in 2015, Murray was consistent all year but didn't really impress with his level of play - Federer had several standout performances but had a few bad results which left him behind in points, despite being better player that year.
 
I assume you meant hasn't. Anyway, if so agreed you compare to 2021 where he beat three top 10ers in dominant fashion at both his masters wins and compare that to Rome this year where he's scraping by Tabilo. Losing three straight matches including two slam matches to taylor freaking fritz. Most of his losses in BO3 this year have been ugly it really has not been that strong of a year. Even with his strong AO/RG runs he needed 3 final set tiebreakers in the first week against bums to make the runs he did. Then he choked his ass off despite having the best level at the tourney in the AO and I have some sympathy for him at the FO because that call in the 5th really hosed him and he did play very well but man this type of year does not make sense for a world number 2. Zverev in 2021 had 2 quality masters wins hard fought slam losses at 3/4 slams and the crown jewel of a really strong WTF performance and ended number 3 with probably less points then he'll end up with this year.

IMO this has been a year where he hasn't flashed the real top end stuff he's capable of very often and he hasn't had the consistency and it'll be his best ye finish ever. Bizarre.
Yeah, I corrected it :X3:

Yes 2021 was obviously better from him than this year, you know I don't really rate 2021 but without a strong Djokovic gatekeeping we're going to be getting all sorts of results unless Sinner and Alcaraz can show Big 3 levels of consistency.
 
Good
This time Sinner needs to finish the job. Take the smile away from Carlito

Nole can do it , why can't you oh Jannik
I hope so. Got tired of people chanting 3-0 when it's Alcaraz's fault too that he failed to reach Sinner in all of his tournaments won this year while Sinner failed to reach Alcaraz only at Wimbledon.
 
It's a more extreme version of Murray topping Federer in 2015, Murray was consistent all year but didn't really impress with his level of play - Federer had several standout performances but had a few bad results which left him behind in points, despite being better player that year.
Right but that year Murray actually had elite consistency making deep runs at every master and slam but one. Zverev has had flops all over the calendar. Murray over Fed made some sense Zverev over Carlos feels insane.
 
When I read that Zverev could join Sinneraz to form the new big three, I shiver down my spine.

As a Sinner fan, I say that if Zverev were, say, Sinner's reference rival in the next 5 years, I would sleep soundly and at that point the Italian could even think of beating Djokovic's major record at the end of his career. But unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your point of view) the reference rival is called Alcaraz who has an infinitely higher ceiling than Zverev. To be a new member of a hypothetical big three, you have to be on par with the other members, and Zverev is absolutely not that.

I repeat for the more distracted that in 2024 Sinner and Alcaraz have played 10 tournaments at the same time and of these 10 tournaments they have won all except Madrid where, however, Sinner had to withdraw after qualifying for the qf. What does this mean? That when Sinner and Alcaraz are in the draw, as they say in my area, there is no tripe for cats. It is no coincidence that so far Zverev the only tournament he has won this season was in Rome where Sinnerraz was absent.

And who talks about the regret Zverev inherent in the RG final after being ahead 2-1, the real early final was the semifinal between Sinner and Alcaraz, the data and a greater balance say so. In the last RG, Zverev was already lucky to come out unscathed from the match with Grieskpoor where in the fifth set the Dutchman wasted a two-break advantage.

If anything, for the German he regretted the semifinal in Melbourne against Medvedev much more, even if in that tournament too let's remember that he was a millimeter away from being knocked out in the second round by the Slovenian Klein. That's exactly the point, Zverev in the majors can always go out at any moment. In short, I take Zverev as the new member of the new big three as a joke.

In the best possible scenario, Zverev could be to Sinneraz as Murray was to the big three between 2007 and mid-2016.
 
Right but that year Murray actually had elite consistency making deep runs at every master and slam but one. Zverev has had flops all over the calendar. Murray over Fed made some sense Zverev over Carlos feels insane.
Like I said, it's a more extreme version - perhaps I should say waaay more extreme. Alcaraz actually won 2 slams and Murray was way better than Zverev despite being a bit toothless IMO.
 
I hope so. Got tired of people chanting 3-0 when it's Alcaraz's fault too that he failed to reach Sinner in all of his tournaments won this year while Sinner failed to reach Alcaraz only at Wimbledon.
Exactly.

The tiny little runner can't save himself on fast courts and now his fans are chanting h2h. This is rafa fans mentality.

Very poor. I have majority of super commentors on ignore with their h2h infuriating claims
 
Exactly.

The tiny little runner can't save himself on fast courts and now his fans are chanting h2h. This is rafa fans mentality.

Very poor. I have majority of super commentors on ignore with their h2h infuriating claims
Tournaments where X player won while Y player played, but couldn't reach X, should also count as an offficial stat. However, we just have H2H.
 
Yeah, I corrected it :X3:

Yes 2021 was obviously better from him than this year, you know I don't really rate 2021 but without a strong Djokovic gatekeeping we're going to be getting all sorts of results unless Sinner and Alcaraz can show Big 3 levels of consistency.
It also feels like the other top 10 staples are regressing and faltering a bit. Medvedev was worse than last year his serve seems in perpetual slow decline though his baselining still feels as good as ever which is weird considering usually the opposite happens as you age. Rublev/Ruud/Stef have all clearly regressed. Rune has somehow gotten worse than he was as a teenager. Djokovic is probably cooked. Even Alcaraz has probably been less consistent. We could be in for some serious chaos next year. Prayer's up for the Grigolo dream run at Wimbledon.
 
What do you mean that with the victory at Wimbledon he only defended the points from the previous year?
The world rankings at any given time are based on players' tennis results from the previous 52 weeks. So Alcaraz, by winning 2024 Wimbledon, had the same number of ranking points as he did before the tournament started, because he won 2023 Wimbledon. After 2024 Wimbledon ended, Alcaraz's 2,000 ranking points from 2023 Wimbledon came off and his 2,000 ranking points from 2024 Wimbledon went on.

The only exception was during the whole Covid period, when tennis rankings were frozen between 23 March 2020 to 23 August 2020, so when the rankings resumed those rankings didn't just reflect the last 52 weeks again until late August 2021.

The ranking at the end of the season is based on the points scored during the calendar year, so the question of points he had to defend at Wimbledon goes beyond all this, ergo, it does not justify anything of his eventual third place finish.
There's another set of rankings, called "the race" which only count players' results from the calendar year (i.e. since 1 January). The ATP made a big deal out of the race rankings in the year 2000, I remember, as part of some gimmick. At the end of the tennis calendar year, the race rankings and the world rankings will be exactly the same.
 
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The world rankings at any given time are based on players' tennis results from the previous 52 weeks. So Alcaraz, by winning 2024 Wimbledon, had the same number of ranking points as he did before the tournament started, because he won 2023 Wimbledon. After 2024 Wimbledon ended, Alcaraz's 2,000 ranking points from 2023 Wimbledon came off and his 2,000 ranking points from 2024 Wimbledon went on.

The only exception was during the whole Covid period, when tennis rankings were frozen between 23 March 2020 to 23 August 2020, so when the rankings resumed those rankings didn't just reflect the last 52 weeks again until late August 2021.


There's another set of rankings, called "the race" which only count players' results from the calendar year (i.e. since 1 January). The ATP made a big deal out of the race rankings in the year 2000, I remember, as part of some gimmick. At the end of the tennis calendar year, the race rankings and the world rankings will be exactly the same.
I know this very well, it's the ABC that any tennis fan should know.
But since this thread is discussing the scenario in which Alcaraz could end the season even at number 3 in the ranking, the question of points to defend at Wimbledon makes absolutely no sense to use in his defense, given that the end-of-season ranking is based on the points obtained in 2024.

Re-read the comment to which I contested the question of points to defend at Wimbledon, at that point you would understand that Zverev, who could overtake Alcaraz at the end of the year, is as involved in the debate as cabbage in a snack.
It's not an excuse.
 
Like I said, it's a more extreme version - perhaps I should say waaay more extreme. Alcaraz actually won 2 slams and Murray was way better than Zverev despite being a bit toothless IMO.
Right but Zverev has been more toothless than Murray and he's been inconsistent. He has neither plus. Even Zverev's crown jewel of the year the FO was probably worse than Murray's. Zverev number 2 just feels absolutely bonkers to me it just makes absolutely no sense. Even "toothless" Murray beat Novak in a masters final and took him 5 at a slam. Murray posted over 60% GW on clay had 4 top 10 wins only loss was to Djokovic in a 5 setter and that's his worst surface. Zverev lost to Garin, Cerundolo, and Tsitsipas all in straights had 1 top 10 win and it's his best surface. Murray showed way more tooth than Zverev on his worst surface.

I'm sure you agree with this but there's an absolutely monster gap. Like Zverev's 2024 feels like a number 4 at best. Even that seems high compare to number 4s over the last 15 years 24 Zverev compares unfavorably with almost all of them imo. I cannot overstate how wrong this ranking feels to me.
 
Sinner last year was number 4 Djokovic 22 was 5 Stef 21 was 4 2020 doesnt count 19 Med was 5 18 Del Po was 5 17 besides top 2 is trash 16 Stan was 4 15 Stan was 4 14 Stan was 4 13 Murray was 4 12 Nadal was 4 11 Murray was 4 like is Zverev better than any of those seasons. Is it even close? It just feels so crazy to me.
 
Right but Zverev has been more toothless than Murray and he's been inconsistent. He has neither plus. Even Zverev's crown jewel of the year the FO was probably worse than Murray's. Zverev number 2 just feels absolutely bonkers to me it just makes absolutely no sense. Even "toothless" Murray beat Novak in a masters final and took him 5 at a slam. Murray posted over 60% GW on clay had 4 top 10 wins only loss was to Djokovic in a 5 setter and that's his worst surface. Zverev lost to Garin, Cerundolo, and Tsitsipas all in straights had 1 top 10 win and it's his best surface. Murray showed way more tooth than Zverev on his worst surface.

I'm sure you agree with this but there's an absolutely monster gap. Like Zverev's 2024 feels like a number 4 at best. Even that seems high compare to number 4s over the last 15 years 24 Zverev compares unfavorably with almost all of them imo. I cannot overstate how wrong this ranking feels to me.
you should title your post the ABZ essay.
 
Sinner last year was number 4 Djokovic 22 was 5 Stef 21 was 4 2020 doesnt count 19 Med was 5 18 Del Po was 5 17 besides top 2 is trash 16 Stan was 4 15 Stan was 4 14 Stan was 4 13 Murray was 4 12 Nadal was 4 11 Murray was 4 like is Zverev better than any of those seasons. Is it even close? It just feels so crazy to me.
Yes
What you are saying does it even make sense to you yourself lol

Sinner last year won 1 masters that's all.
Don't say much about nole, even with wimby pt added he was number 2. With 180 pts from number 1.

It feels much better zverev than sinner last year.
 
It also feels like the other top 10 staples are regressing and faltering a bit. Medvedev was worse than last year his serve seems in perpetual slow decline though his baselining still feels as good as ever which is weird considering usually the opposite happens as you age. Rublev/Ruud/Stef have all clearly regressed. Rune has somehow gotten worse than he was as a teenager. Djokovic is probably cooked. Even Alcaraz has probably been less consistent. We could be in for some serious chaos next year. Prayer's up for the Grigolo dream run at Wimbledon.
I think it's natural for there to be a bit of regression once you hit your late'ish 20's, but you may disagree with me there. I think after a while the tour starts to understand what patterns of play work against you and what your weaknesses are - along with a bit of a decline in physicality. These guys will need to find dimensions to add to their games otherwise they're going to be on a slow downward trend (or not so slow as far as Tsits is concerned). I think Med's woes are mostly linked to his serve which has lost potency, I can't really comment on his ground game declining and I was never that impressed with it anyway :-D
 
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That slams aren't everything?
True, but what has Zverev won this year? I think only big title was Rome or Madrid and he lost the FO final to Alcaraz. It would be very strange and surprising if Carlos ended the year at #3. Better that though that not winning any slams.
 
Right but Zverev has been more toothless than Murray and he's been inconsistent. He has neither plus. Even Zverev's crown jewel of the year the FO was probably worse than Murray's. Zverev number 2 just feels absolutely bonkers to me it just makes absolutely no sense. Even "toothless" Murray beat Novak in a masters final and took him 5 at a slam. Murray posted over 60% GW on clay had 4 top 10 wins only loss was to Djokovic in a 5 setter and that's his worst surface. Zverev lost to Garin, Cerundolo, and Tsitsipas all in straights had 1 top 10 win and it's his best surface. Murray showed way more tooth than Zverev on his worst surface.

I'm sure you agree with this but there's an absolutely monster gap. Like Zverev's 2024 feels like a number 4 at best. Even that seems high compare to number 4s over the last 15 years 24 Zverev compares unfavorably with almost all of them imo. I cannot overstate how wrong this ranking feels to me.
I agree with this. I think by and large this has been a pretty bad year, Djokovic has fallen off a cliff for the most part (aside from the Olympics) and while Sinner stepping up has been good the rest of the top 10 feels weaker. maybe much weaker, than it did a year ago.
 
True, but what has Zverev won this year? I think only big title was Rome or Madrid and he lost the FO final to Alcaraz. It would be very strange and surprising if Carlos ended the year at #3. Better that though that not winning any slams.
Yes but atleast he made it pretty far in most masters and slams, thats where the numbers really start racking up.
 
Not a good look losing the number 2 spot to choking career slamless MUG Zverev. Outside of Indian wells his form didn’t look that good either this year. The two slams he didn’t win definitely weren’t in convincing fashion either. He could have lost both RG and Wimbledon. He’s lucky he got by tiafoe, sinner or Zverev at either. And he spend a lot of the year losing to mugs he had no business losing to.
He’s got a lot of work to hit that next level

We will see what next year brings but he’s gonna have to step it up exponentially or sinner will leave him in the dust very fast. Because I believe next year is where sinner will strike on either grass or clay or both
 
Yes
What you are saying does it even make sense to you yourself lol

Sinner last year won 1 masters that's all.
Don't say much about nole, even with wimby pt added he was number 2. With 180 pts from number 1.

It feels much better zverev than sinner last year.
Fair enough you could argue Zverev this year over Sinner last year that's the only one that's close though all the other seasons are clearly better. Even Sinner is easy to make the case for he had more titles he won the Davis cup in impressive fashion. His master's resume is better. In the fall he displayed a higher level beating tons of top competition than any run of form Zverev has had this year. And then of course he had a very strong WTF as well. Zverev was better at the slams but their AO losses are very similar. They both have two garbage losses though Zverev's are slightly less garbage. And then Sinner lost to Novak at W in an extremely competitive straight setter that actually had a closer DR than Alcaraz-Zverev FO. Though I will admit Zverev has the better performance there. You can easily make the case Sinner's season last year was better than Zverev's this year.
 
Not a good look losing the number 2 spot to choking career slamless MUG Zverev. Outside of Indian wells his form didn’t look that good either this year. The two slams he didn’t win definitely weren’t in convincing fashion either. He could have lost both RG and Wimbledon. He’s lucky he got by tiafoe, sinner or Zverev at either

He’s got a lot of work today
After the first set against Medvedev Alcaraz didn't really look back at Wimbledon, aside from a couple of moments I thought the SF/F from him were the best he's played in the final rounds of a major. But sure leading up to it he wasn't spectacular and it's not like Medvedev and 2024 Djokovic were good opponents either.
 
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