What Is Going Wrong For Novak Djokovic?- from Jeff Sackmann

[Rovesciarete]

A deep dive on the Top Spin blog into some aspects of Djokovic's troubles during Aussie summer - in which was able to get into the semis!

Fifteen break points. A week has passed, a new champion has been crowned, and I still can’t stop thinking about it. In the first two sets of his Australian Open quarter-final match against Taylor Fritz, Novak Djokovic failed to convert fifteen straight break points.

It’s so far out of character as to defy belief. Djokovic has converted more than 40% of his break chances in the past year, even counting the 4-for-21 showing in the entire Fritz match. The American, one of the better servers on tour, typically saves only two-thirds of the break points he faces. The chances that Novak would come up short 15 times in a row are about one in seven million.

Djokovic has masterfully transformed his game to prolong his career and his success. He has become on of the greatest serve plus players of the modern game while conserving his excellence during the rallies. However there are some players against which he suffers increasingly in the longer ones:

It is especially unusual for Djokovic to see such a decline on hard courts. Over the last decade, he has gone through spells when he loses more long rallies than he wins. But they typically come on clay. Carlos Alcaraz shut him down in last year’s Wimbledon final as well, winning 57% of points that reached the seventh shot and 63% of those with ten or more strokes. The only period when hard-court Novak consistently failed to win this category was late 2021, when Medvedev beat him for the US Open title (and then outscored him in long rallies in Paris), and Alexander Zverev won 62% of the seven-plusses (and 70% of ten-plusses!) to knock him out of the Tour Finals.

Protracted rallies are a young man’s game, and Djokovic’s results are starting to show it. Before dissecting Alcaraz in Turin last November, Novak had never won more than half of seven-plusses against Carlitos. He has barely held on against Sinner, winning 43% of those points in their Tour Finals round-robin match and 51% at the Davis Cup Finals. In 13 meetings since 2019, Medvedev has won more of these long rallies than Djokovic has. Zverev, too, has edged him out in this category since the end of 2018.

Against the rest of the pack, Djokovic manages just fine. He dominates seven-plusses against Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas, for instance. But it’s one of the few chinks in his armor against the best, and if January represents anything more than the temporary struggles of an ailing star, more players are figuring out how to take advantage.

People are surprised on how much Novak missed against Sinner. However his tactical approach has been based on a clear eyed view of his current strengths and weaknesses. In Turin he dominated the rising youngsters on the slick and fast indoor hardcourt. He clearly wanted to do the same in the semi, similar to what Daniil did during the first two sets in the final but overplayed in more difficult conditions and a weaker physical one.

Tactically it should be highly interesting to see how Novak approaches his future top matches, knowing that they might outlast him when the rally goes long. Clay will be especially challenging, as his great serve plus game penetrates least. Still only a fool would dismiss his ability to fight for big titles.

 

[GrandSlam24]

How long you can spend on one match...

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Very interesting read, thanks

 

[kishnabe]

When he goes on to win another Major this year, everyone will forget his AO failure.

 

[Bartelby]

A player's tournament can turn on factors that we know nothing about. We need to see what transpires over the next six months or so.

 

[junior74]

A bad day in the office. That's it.

People forget Novak has also won several slam titles playing well below his best level.

 

[Anni.Angel]

Played some crappy tournaments for no good reason.

Roger knew better.

 

[urban]

I find it good, that someone does some serious analysis of matchplans and tactical shifts, on a statistical basis. Much better than all those crap threads about imaginary player x of 2000 will beat player y of 2020, or this hysterical hyping or downwriting of players in the media and forums. Its certainly not surprising that an older top player tries to shorten points, and that he has problems in longer rallies. Later Fed had problems with his forehand in longer exchanges, because of his slowing footwork, and even older Nadal on clay played imo more aggressive to win points shortly. I think, Nole puts a bit more weight into his forehand now, but likes to play in a virtual box in the middle of the court, within say a meter within each sideline. When he is drawn wide to the sides, he gets out of his comfort zone, and is more vulnerable, at least in my view.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I actually found the relative point disadvantage against players like Alcaraz, Sinner, Zverev and Medvedev even more interesting.

Sinner has dominated Djokovic in the longest rallies in the Round Robin 20 vs 4 and even 11 vs 3 in the final despite getting crushed in the shorter points. For a smart guy like Djokovic which has the skills to do it the tactical game plan must have been crystal clear and he has the discipline to follow through.

I'm now understanding why Novak didn't change rapidly against Sinner in the semis, he was just sticking with rigour to a rational plan. Of course he didn't succeed for a variety of reasons and maybe knew that the alternative, his 'normal' game would also be difficult to pull off.

So when Novak faces now some players he find himself in a strange spot. He could outlast basically all and build up an incredible serve plus game on top of it. Now he has still the latter but increasingly struggles against an elite few in the former.

Very interesting times ahead.

 

[urban]

I think, Noles game is basically a compact, counterpunching game. It is built on compact swings, and good length, rhythm and consistency from both flanks. He is not going for the lines, and has a certain margin for error, and is not really outhitting players, often has less winners than top opponents. His return game is great, not as aggressive as say Agassi or Connors, but very solid with constant pressure. Sinners makes it difficult for him to return by hitting serves to the sidelines, and then following up with big forehands, so that he can dictate the exchanges and has him on the run more than he likes. Zverev did that in a few matches against Djoker before, going cross and sideways with big swings.

Nole has changed his own game a bit in the last years. Compared to the lean figure of earlier times, Nole looks now more compact in his upper body, and he puts more weight into his serve, and especially into his forehand, without being a hard hitting machine. It is quite natural, that he isn't quite as flexible, mobile and fast on his feet, than a couple of years ago. But you have to disrupt his rhythm, to get him.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Things are headed in the right direction

 

[Sudacafan]

Terrible break point conversion rate?
All of his life trying to do better than Federer. This guy never rests.

 

[Arak]

Even the greatest players can have off days, and sometimes off weeks, if they’re not feeling well, have some minor physical discomfort, or just mentally not fully focused. Everyone is reading too much into that loss to Sinner. I expect business as usual for Djokovic in the coming majors. That was just a hiccup.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Even the greatest players can have off days, and sometimes off weeks, if they’re not feeling well, have some minor physical discomfort, or just mentally not fully focused. Everyone is reading too much into that loss to Sinner. I expect business as usual for Djokovic in the coming majors. That was just a hiccup.

Probably, I agree. But almost impossible to repeat his stellar 2023...

 

[Crocodile]

Not too much going wrong when you win 24 slams including 3 out of 4 in 2023. More like what’s going on the the journalists brain who wrote the article;

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

Things are headed in the right direction

 

[Pheasant]

It’s one loss to a great player, folks. That’s it. We are looking at a sample size of 1. I think the bigger story is if Sinner has caught Djoker on hard courts. Sinner has been playing at an unbelievable level lately.

Djoker last year had a career-best .928 winning pct on hard courts, which broke his previous best of .922 that he set in 2015. That run was due to come to an end. What’s crazy is that 2 of those 3 losses last year were to Sinner. And now, Sinner beat him again in 2024.

 

[pirhaksar]

I find it good, that someone does some serious analysis of matchplans and tactical shifts, on a statistical basis. Much better than all those crap threads about imaginary player x of 2000 will beat player y of 2020, or this hysterical hyping or downwriting of players in the media and forums. Its certainly not surprising that an older top player tries to shorten points, and that he has problems in longer rallies. Later Fed had problems with his forehand in longer exchanges, because of his slowing footwork, and even older Nadal on clay played imo more aggressive to win points shortly. I think, Nole puts a bit more weight into his forehand now, but likes to play in a virtual box in the middle of the court, within say a meter within each sideline. When he is drawn wide to the sides, he gets out of his comfort zone, and is more vulnerable, at least in my view.

Well said. This is much better than the hypothetical analysis and the assertions they are true are lmao worthy.

 

[pirhaksar]

The next match with Sinner will tell us if Novak is going to battle him into next year or be forced into retirement by year end. I have a feeling he will counter with better game plan and won’t go away quietly especially if Rafa is still in the mix. The Cincinnati match vs Raz was a good indication of his ability to adjust/adapt and regroup after the Wimby shock defeat, even if he had lost that match the way he fought tooth and nail the imo was to show Raz that he would have to outlast him. I know he is older since but he is also Novak freakin Djokovic.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

Not too much going wrong when you win 24 slams including 3 out of 4 in 2023. More like what’s going on the the journalists brain who wrote the article;

What is Djokovic's worst nightmare?
Nadal winning Roland Garros and more.
24 won't be enough, and that is the end of Djokovic's life, because he's obsessed with records, and is about to lose the most important record of all.
And now he's let Sinner out of the bag, making it even more likely that Djokovic will retire with 24.
Nadal, Carlos, Sinner, will block every path.

 

[nolefam_2024]

The next match with Sinner will tell us if Novak is going to battle him into next year or be forced into retirement by year end. I have a feeling he will counter with better game plan and won’t go away quietly especially if Rafa is still in the mix. The Cincinnati match vs Raz was a good indication of his ability to adjust/adapt and regroup after the Wimby shock defeat, even if he had lost that match the way he fought tooth and nail the imo was to show Raz that he would have to outlast him. I know he is older since but he is also Novak freakin Djokovic.

Raz is a great physical freak like early Nadal. But sinner is Berdych Djokovic mixture.

Look at it this way. 1hbh god Roger Federer in his older days whacked the ball and got 6 wins vs Nadal off clay. The age didn't matter because he had high risk game and nadal's topspin loop strokes got punished. But same Federer got nowhere vs Nole. He got close but not close enough. All he has is just a memory of 1 RR drubbing which in the long run means nothing.

It's much harder to stop a ball basher like sinner at this stage by doing even bigger ball bashing. Nole did it very well in ATP finals but it's very high risk game. Roger couldn't do it forever as well. So the Sinner storm is far far deadlier threat to existence of Djokovic than our tiny miracle.

It's a few slams which Nole will even keep even with sinner and then will be no more a challenge for him. Now is the time. Just next 2 years. And let's take away the clay slams so just next 6 slams. Win as much as he can. Wimbledon is good chance for Nole. He will be favorite to win it. Then next AO and Wimby and this USO. Sinner is still a frail BOY and he will need to reach semis at the least to reach Nole. Let's take advantage of this and go through early rounds fast and be ready for sinner at USOpen. Nole can still win 2 slams this year.

But maybe he will only win 1 slam. Who knows. I think he is going to end at 26 or 27 total. But that would mean he will have to go through both alcaraz and sinner in both the wins.

 

[mental midget]

one dynamic of that match (which i'm not reading a tremendous amount into...agree w simple combination of bad day at the office for novak, sinner giving him nothing and playing consistently great.)

novak typically wins a LOT of points by goading players into missing with defensive heroics. sinner did not take the bait--when he did hurt novak, pulling him wide for example, and novak managed to keep it alive, sinner didn't immediately go for the kill shot, instead just continued to hit to big targets and press his advantage. not only did that cut down on free points given, i think that sort of play is the best way to get into novak's head, and take away his favorite thing: defiance in the face of adversity. makes the match...less fun for him, i think, which saps his energy and enthusiasm.

 

[Kralingen]

Djokovic’s serve/return going from unquestioned best in the world to only top 5 and matched by other players is definitely a bigger issue than people may realize

His relies on his serve/return giving him the immediate upper hand on 60-70% of total points

Pure rallying he ain’t that dangerous at all anymore

 

[robthai]

The window to continue vulturing is coming to an end. That is mainly what has gone wrong.

 

[dr325i]

People trying to cash in on a loss, just like every other loss before. Federer had 5 USO in a row and eventually had to loose. He dominated at Wimbledon, but eventually lost...but won something else.
Nadal lost not just once at the tournament he dominated more than any other player at any tournament in history of any sport but even at 38, crippled, he is still considered a favorite (by some).

So...Novak lost and aside from giving Sinner a huge confidence boost, means nothing at this point.

In 2023, Novak won 3 slams, WTF and lost in the final of Wimbledon. Made it to the SF of the AO24 and played way below his capabilities (especially in the first two sets -- reminded me of Rafa at the AO19 where he was completely lost in that final, unable to make anything...). Generally, nothing worked well in the first two sets of the SF, including his best side -- returns (credit should be also given to Sinner).

Losses always motivate Novak to come back stronger. So, time will only tell if his body will allow him to do so. If yes, we will have another dominant (not as 2023) season and two more slams added to the tally. Otherwise, I bet that he will win at least at Wimbledon this year.

 

[BauerAlmeida]

It’s one loss to a great player, folks. That’s it.

Yup. He lost to one of the top 3/4 best players in the world.

It would be more noteworthy if he had had an Istomin type of defeat. It's also the first time he is beaten convincingly by either Alcaraz or Sinner, while some of his wins had been convincing, especially those back-to-back wins at the YEC.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Yup. He lost to one of the top 3/4 best players in the world.

It would be more noteworthy if he had had an Istomin type of defeat. It's also the first time he is beaten convincingly by either Alcaraz or Sinner, while some of his wins had been convincing, especially those back-to-back wins at the YEC.

He did not lose. He got walloped.

Let's not make it a simple loss like even RG 2019 or something.

 

[pirhaksar]

Raz is a great physical freak like early Nadal. But sinner is Berdych Djokovic mixture.

Look at it this way. 1hbh god Roger Federer in his older days whacked the ball and got 6 wins vs Nadal off clay. The age didn't matter because he had high risk game and nadal's topspin loop strokes got punished. But same Federer got nowhere vs Nole. He got close but not close enough. All he has is just a memory of 1 RR drubbing which in the long run means nothing.

It's much harder to stop a ball basher like sinner at this stage by doing even bigger ball bashing. Nole did it very well in ATP finals but it's very high risk game. Roger couldn't do it forever as well. So the Sinner storm is far far deadlier threat to existence of Djokovic than our tiny miracle.

It's a few slams which Nole will even keep even with sinner and then will be no more a challenge for him. Now is the time. Just next 2 years. And let's take away the clay slams so just next 6 slams. Win as much as he can. Wimbledon is good chance for Nole. He will be favorite to win it. Then next AO and Wimby and this USO. Sinner is still a frail BOY and he will need to reach semis at the least to reach Nole. Let's take advantage of this and go through early rounds fast and be ready for sinner at USOpen. Nole can still win 2 slams this year.

But maybe he will only win 1 slam. Who knows. I think he is going to end at 26 or 27 total. But that would mean he will have to go through both alcaraz and sinner in both the wins.

Weren’t you going on and on about how Sinner can’t beat Djokovic when I suggested YE and DC showed us a new and upgraded Sinner. Now you have turned 180 bullish on Sinner, what changed? Not saying one can’t change opinions after new evidence but is it just the way Sinner dismantled Novak in the semis that made you change your mind.. just curious.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Weren’t you going on and on about how Sinner can’t beat Djokovic when I suggested YE and DC showed us a new and upgraded Sinner. Now you have turned 180 bullish on Sinner, what changed? Not saying one can’t change opinions after new evidence but is it just the way Sinner dismantled Novak in the semis that made you change your mind.. just curious.

No it must be someone else. I said sinner is not the favorite. Djokovic is. But sinner can definitely win.

 

[nolefam_2024]

You must have not seen my posting styles on this board. Last year I was pro Djokovic in RG semis but admitted that alcaraz was the favorite.

While before the finals I said this Ruud is not even a threat and nolefams should start celebrating now. There is no threat from Ruud. Be confident but respect the quality opponents. Don't respect the players like fritz or Ruud.

 

[BauerAlmeida]

He did not lose. He got walloped.

Let's not make it a simple loss like even RG 2019 or something.

He got walloped but was the only one to take a set off Sinner before the final. And who knows how the 4th set was gonna go if he hadn't been broken from 40-0 up (even while something clearly was off).

He was destroyed in the RG 2020 final and then came back to win RG against Nadal himself the following year and two other slams. One match is just one match.

 

[nolefam_2024]

He got walloped but was the only one to take a set off Sinner before the final. And who knows how the 4th set was gonna go if he hadn't been broken from 40-0 up (even while something clearly was off).

He was destroyed in the RG 2020 final and then came back to win RG against Nadal himself the following year and two other slams. One match is just one match.

True but Rafa was declining force and sinner is just going to get stronger.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Weren’t you going on and on about how Sinner can’t beat Djokovic when I suggested YE and DC showed us a new and upgraded Sinner. Now you have turned 180 bullish on Sinner, what changed? Not saying one can’t change opinions after new evidence but is it just the way Sinner dismantled Novak in the semis that made you change your mind.. just curious.

Roland Garros Final: [3] Novak Djokovic vs [4] Casper Ruud

Djoker should bag this one.

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

 

[pirhaksar]

No it must be someone else. I said sinner is not the favorite. Djokovic is. But sinner can definitely win.

Got it, thought it was you. My bad.

 

[BeatlesFan]

How long you can spend on one match...

TTW still has people talking about the 2019 Wimbledon final every single day and posting the finger lady. And that match was almost 5 years ago.

 

[ghostofMecir]

one dynamic of that match (which i'm not reading a tremendous amount into...agree w simple combination of bad day at the office for novak, sinner giving him nothing and playing consistently great.)

novak typically wins a LOT of points by goading players into missing with defensive heroics. sinner did not take the bait--when he did hurt novak, pulling him wide for example, and novak managed to keep it alive, sinner didn't immediately go for the kill shot, instead just continued to hit to big targets and press his advantage. not only did that cut down on free points given, i think that sort of play is the best way to get into novak's head, and take away his favorite thing: defiance in the face of adversity. makes the match...less fun for him, i think, which saps his energy and enthusiasm.

I noticed this and it seemed a direct result of an analytics informed game plan, something Djokovic and his team have been ahead of the curve on, especially compared to Nadal’s and Federer’s respective teams.

Djokovic’s serve/return going from unquestioned best in the world to only top 5 and matched by other players is definitely a bigger issue than people may realize

His relies on his serve/return giving him the immediate upper hand on 60-70% of total points

Pure rallying he ain’t that dangerous at all anymore

This is the biggest difference between current Djoko and peak—peak version lived for the rallies.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Today's Nole can't rally all the time of course but his early aggression has gone up a few notches. It's result of his improved serve (really improved looking at the numbers) and plus 1. Of course it's higher risk strategy but it works many times just like fed 2017. This match is bad example since Nole was in poor form. But even if Nole was in great form the ballbashing will not be very helpful vs sinner.

Just like constant rallying wasn't always helpful vs Wawrinka in 2010s. He needed the early aggression more.

 

[Sport]

Nothing wrong with him. He's almost 37 folks, so his level ain't the same.

You thought he was gonna win Slams till 2040 when he's 53? Let's get real, gentlemen.

 

[soldat]

Nothing wrong with him. He's almost 37 folks, so his level ain't the same.

You thought he was gonna win Slams till 2040 when he's 53? Let's get real, gentlemen.

But winning until 45 sounds good

 

[Rovesciarete]

"Djokovic could be a future GOAT!" is the oldest reference of Djokovic and Goat I could find on the forum, by Mr. Topspin 9/11/2007:​

Before everyone accusses me of being on crack, let me explain the possible reasons why!

Djokovic is ranked 3 in the world, has made 2 grand slam semifinals, 1 grandslam final and won 2 TMS titles. Djokovic has made huge strides this year where he has cemented his place in the top 10 and has seems to be able to play well on all surfaces so far. Only Nadal or Federer have knocked him out of grandslams this year. He has beaten Federer, at the Monteal masters and he has also defeated Nadal twice.

He also put in a good effort at the US open against Federer before succumbing to nerves. If he contines to put himself in GS finals those nerves will be more familar and ultimately more controllable. The key for Djokovic is how soon he will make another GS final and how well he contnues to play on all four surfaces. At present he seems to play well on Hard, Grass and Clay. If that continues he has a chance of winning all four grand slams just as Federer may do in future years ( RG is still missing from his resume). I think the fact that Djokovic who is not a specialist on any particular surface is able to essentially play the same game style on all surfaces speaks volumes on how the court surfaces are being harmonsised.

The other factor for Djokovic is how well his body holds up. Although his game is not as physically demanding as a neurotic Spaniard he plays far too many 5 setters early on in tourneys as the Swiss No1 pointed out.
If however, he stays injury free and makes his game more efficient and makes a final next year then i think he will go on to do great things in the game as great as perhaps Borg or Laver. Djokovic has amuch better chance of winning all four slams despite of Nadal IMHO.

I think it is interesting to look back, and the poster obviously had a good idea and clear head when he wrote that. His return game was at a considerably higher level than his serve, powered by quick legs and good strokes. Stat-wise he was better than Sinner at his age, but not by a huge amount. After his great improvement from 2006 he would take another similar one to reach a very high level in 2008. Interestingly his winning percentage didn't improve but that happens sometimes, he really did well there a year before.

DJOKOVIC Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	Win%​	Set%​	Game%​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2023	88.9%​	81.8%​	59.7%​	88.9%​	28.8%​	8.6%​	3.4%​	63.9%​	77.0%​	57.4%​	69.9%​	41.0%​	54.9%​	1.36​	W (7x)
2011	91.1%​	82.0%​	62.8%​	86.4%​	38.8%​	6.3%​	2.6%​	65.3%​	74.1%​	55.6%​	67.7%​	44.6%​	56.0%​	1.38​	W (10x)
2010	77.8%​	72.4%​	57.8%​	82.2%​	32.2%​	5.2%​	4.8%​	64.1%​	70.8%​	52.0%​	64.1%​	42.0%​	53.1%​	1.17​	W (2x)
2009	80.4%​	72.6%​	57.6%​	84.5%​	31.2%​	7.0%​	3.7%​	63.0%​	72.8%​	53.7%​	65.7%​	41.7%​	53.5%​	1.22​	W (5x)
2008	79.0%​	75.2%​	58.8%​	86.8%​	30.1%​	8.3%​	2.6%​	65.0%​	73.7%​	56.6%​	67.7%​	40.9%​	54.0%​	1.27​	W (4x)
2007	78.2%​	71.3%​	56.8%​	83.9%​	28.2%​	7.5%​	2.8%​	64.1%​	72.3%​	53.9%​	65.7%​	40.2%​	52.9%​	1.17​	W (5x)
2006	69.0%​	64.5%​	54.3%​	81.3%​	26.5%​	6.9%​	3.7%​	62.8%​	71.8%​	52.6%​	64.6%​	38.7%​	51.8%​	1.09​	W (2x)
2005	50.0%​	52.3%​	49.9%​	74.7%​	21.8%​	5.2%​	3.4%​	63.4%​	69.7%​	47.6%​	61.6%​	36.7%​	49.3%​	0.96​	R16 (3x)
2004	40.0%​	46.2%​	49.2%​	63.0%​	29.1%​	7.0%​	5.6%​	62.4%​	60.8%​	43.6%​	54.3%​	41.4%​	48.0%​	0.91​	R16 (Bucharest)
Career	83.7%​	76.6%​	59.4%​	86.1%​	31.8%​	7.3%​	3.0%​	64.9%​	74.1%​	55.5%​	67.6%​	42.1%​	54.5%​	1.30​

Nice to compare the 2011 and 2023 Nole. More human return points won % but far higher serve points won %. Breaking far less than the absurd 38.8% but holding considerably more. Curren Nole needs his serve far more than before, even if he remains one of the best returners on the tour.

 

[nolefam_2024]

"Djokovic could be a future GOAT!" is the oldest reference of Djokovic and Goat I could find on the forum, by Mr. Topspin 9/11/2007:​

I think it is interesting to look back, and the poster obviously had a good idea and clear head when he wrote that. His return game was at a considerably higher level than his serve, powered by quick legs and good strokes. Stat-wise he was better than Sinner at his age, but not by a huge amount. After his great improvement from 2006 he would take another similar one to reach a very high level in 2008. Interestingly his winning percentage didn't improve but that happens sometimes, he really did well there a year before.

DJOKOVIC Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	Win%​	Set%​	Game%​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2023	88.9%​	81.8%​	59.7%​	88.9%​	28.8%​	8.6%​	3.4%​	63.9%​	77.0%​	57.4%​	69.9%​	41.0%​	54.9%​	1.36​	W (7x)
2011	91.1%​	82.0%​	62.8%​	86.4%​	38.8%​	6.3%​	2.6%​	65.3%​	74.1%​	55.6%​	67.7%​	44.6%​	56.0%​	1.38​	W (10x)
2010	77.8%​	72.4%​	57.8%​	82.2%​	32.2%​	5.2%​	4.8%​	64.1%​	70.8%​	52.0%​	64.1%​	42.0%​	53.1%​	1.17​	W (2x)
2009	80.4%​	72.6%​	57.6%​	84.5%​	31.2%​	7.0%​	3.7%​	63.0%​	72.8%​	53.7%​	65.7%​	41.7%​	53.5%​	1.22​	W (5x)
2008	79.0%​	75.2%​	58.8%​	86.8%​	30.1%​	8.3%​	2.6%​	65.0%​	73.7%​	56.6%​	67.7%​	40.9%​	54.0%​	1.27​	W (4x)
2007	78.2%​	71.3%​	56.8%​	83.9%​	28.2%​	7.5%​	2.8%​	64.1%​	72.3%​	53.9%​	65.7%​	40.2%​	52.9%​	1.17​	W (5x)
2006	69.0%​	64.5%​	54.3%​	81.3%​	26.5%​	6.9%​	3.7%​	62.8%​	71.8%​	52.6%​	64.6%​	38.7%​	51.8%​	1.09​	W (2x)
2005	50.0%​	52.3%​	49.9%​	74.7%​	21.8%​	5.2%​	3.4%​	63.4%​	69.7%​	47.6%​	61.6%​	36.7%​	49.3%​	0.96​	R16 (3x)
2004	40.0%​	46.2%​	49.2%​	63.0%​	29.1%​	7.0%​	5.6%​	62.4%​	60.8%​	43.6%​	54.3%​	41.4%​	48.0%​	0.91​	R16 (Bucharest)
Career	83.7%​	76.6%​	59.4%​	86.1%​	31.8%​	7.3%​	3.0%​	64.9%​	74.1%​	55.5%​	67.6%​	42.1%​	54.5%​	1.30​

Nice to compare the 2011 and 2023 Nole. More human return points won % but far higher serve points won %. Breaking far less than the absurd 38.8% but holding considerably more. Curren Nole needs his serve far more than before, even if he remains one of the best returners on the tour.

Not good to skip every single year between 2012 to 2022 but a fair analysis.

 

[Rovesciarete]

His Elo rankings in 2007 and 2008 seem surprisingly low, must check this out some more, but accumulation needs time. Grass takes almost always longest and as he was so balanced normal Elo showed his improvements best.

Year-End Rankings Current Elo rankings | Top​

Elo rankings only available for seasons with at least 20 matches played at qualifying levels.

Year​	ATP Rank​	Points​	Elo Rank​	Elo​	hElo Rank​	hElo​	cElo Rank​	cElo​	gElo Rank​	gElo​
Current (2024-01-29)	1​	9855​	2​	2216​	2​	2168​	2​	2088​	1​	2057​
2023	1​	11245​	1​	2227​	1​	2179​	2​	2093​	1​	2062​
2022	5​	4820​	1​	2146​	1​	2090​	2​	2084​	1​	2061​
2021	1​	11540​	1​	2186​	2​	2127​	1​	2111​	1​	2074​
2020	1​	12030​	1​	2228​	1​	2170​	2​	2161​	​	​
2019	2​	9145​	2​	2200​	2​	2139​	2​	2131​	1​	2109​
2018	1​	9045​	2​	2192​	1​	2144​	2​	2117​	1​	2082​
2017	12​	2585​	1​	2337​	1​	2294​	1​	2279​	1​	2195​
2016	2​	11780​	1​	2402​	1​	2345​	1​	2341​	1​	2216​
2015	1​	16585​	1​	2435​	1​	2371​	1​	2341​	1​	2248​
2014	1​	11360​	1​	2375​	1​	2316​	1​	2280​	1​	2191​
2013	2​	12260​	1​	2371​	1​	2322​	2​	2256​	2​	2152​
2012	1​	12920​	1​	2322​	1​	2267​	2​	2229​	3​	2098​
2011	1​	13630​	3​	2227​	2​	2159​	3​	2203​	3​	2081​
2010	3​	6240​	3​	2190​	3​	2143​	3​	2127​	4​	2006​
2009	3​	8310​	2​	2251​	1​	2200​	3​	2167​	4​	2031​
2008	3​	5295​	4​	2153​	4​	2090​	3​	2097​	5​	1978​
2007	3​	4470​	3​	2096​	3​	2038​	3​	2027​	4​	1940​
2006	16​	1380​	12​	1966​	13​	1888​	8​	1927​	11​	1819​
2005	78​	502​	38​	1824​	68​	1694​	49​	1759​	37​	1718​
2004	186​	229​	94​	1703​	199​	1476​	98​	1642​	​	​
2003	679​	20​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​

 

[TheSlicer]

Holidays in february with family, there are many more things wrong with anyone than him, he got sick the day before the match, aparently he didnt want to spread It and someone else did afterwards, people writting Djokovic off for the rest of the year are so funny and so naive at the same time

 

[MichaelNadal]

Djokovic’s serve/return going from unquestioned best in the world to only top 5 and matched by other players is definitely a bigger issue than people may realize

His relies on his serve/return giving him the immediate upper hand on 60-70% of total points

Pure rallying he ain’t that dangerous at all anymore

A great point

 

[rigged]

Terrible break point conversion rate?
All of his life trying to do better than Federer. This guy never rests.

You can't have a terrible break point conversion if you don't have any break point.

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

How long you can spend on one match...

Enough for those who never followed tennis to know no player wins every major, otherwise he or she would have around 15 Grand Slams. Moreover, you have some who are hell-bent on digging a grave for Djokovic's career, because they foolishly believe it will help boost the career--with a clear path--of players such as Alcaraz, who has a world of issues with his own game, whether Djokovic is beating him or not. Then of course, you have those who are still ass-hurt that the other members of the "Big Three" never remained above Djokovic with the majors' count, so for Djokovic's sin, we get endless pronouncements of his "problems" and "seeing the end of his career sooner than later". Rinse and repeat.

 

[Sudacafan]

You can't have a terrible break point conversion if you don't have any break point.

And also, you should not look for a break point if you don't know what to do with it.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Here we have all the years. Once again the big serve and return jump in 2011 catches the eye. It was the peak of the raw RPW. Amazing to see that he was able to break over 30% from 2008 to 2021, crazy consistency. His match reduction and less clay are partly behind his big drop in RPW and break % but I guess age does play increasingly a role too. More aggressive serving and his mastery of the second serve stands out.

Interestingly Sinner is going down almost exactly the same route. Far better first serve and improve second with a strong follow-up.

Year​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
2024	87.6%​	26.0%​	10.9%​	76.2%​	57.3%​	69.4%​	39.1%​	54.1%​	1.28​
2023	88.9%​	28.8%​	8.6%​	77.0%​	57.4%​	69.9%​	41.0%​	54.9%​	1.36​
2022	87.9%​	28.5%​	8.0%​	77.2%​	56.5%​	70.1%​	41.2%​	55.1%​	1.38​
2021	87.6%​	33.8%​	9.3%​	76.8%​	54.4%​	68.9%​	43.0%​	55.4%​	1.38​
2020	86.1%​	33.0%​	7.8%​	75.4%​	52.9%​	67.4%​	43.3%​	54.9%​	1.33​
2019	88.0%​	32.3%​	7.8%​	76.3%​	56.8%​	69.7%​	42.1%​	55.4%​	1.39​
2018	87.3%​	30.2%​	6.8%​	74.1%​	56.9%​	68.3%​	41.8%​	54.5%​	1.32​
2017	83.8%​	31.3%​	5.3%​	72.5%​	53.3%​	66.0%​	41.8%​	53.8%​	1.23​
2016	86.4%​	33.9%​	5.4%​	73.5%​	56.0%​	67.4%​	43.9%​	55.2%​	1.35​
2015	89.5%​	34.4%​	7.3%​	74.4%​	60.2%​	69.7%​	43.0%​	55.8%​	1.42​
2014	87.7%​	33.3%​	8.0%​	75.0%​	56.4%​	68.8%​	42.7%​	55.3%​	1.37​
2013	88.0%​	33.2%​	8.2%​	74.9%​	59.6%​	69.7%​	43.1%​	55.6%​	1.42​
2012	87.2%​	34.7%​	7.7%​	74.9%​	56.3%​	68.2%​	43.5%​	55.5%​	1.37​
2011	86.4%​	38.8%​	6.3%​	74.1%​	55.6%​	67.7%​	44.6%​	56.0%​	1.38​
2010	82.2%​	32.2%​	5.2%​	70.8%​	52.0%​	64.1%​	42.0%​	53.1%​	1.17​
2009	84.5%​	31.2%​	7.0%​	72.8%​	53.7%​	65.7%​	41.7%​	53.5%​	1.22​
2008	86.8%​	30.1%​	8.3%​	73.7%​	56.6%​	67.7%​	40.9%​	54.0%​	1.27​
2007	83.9%​	28.2%​	7.5%​	72.3%​	53.9%​	65.7%​	40.2%​	52.9%​	1.17​
2006	81.3%​	26.5%​	6.9%​	71.8%​	52.6%​	64.6%​	38.7%​	51.8%​	1.09​
2005	74.7%​	21.8%​	5.2%​	69.7%​	47.6%​	61.6%​	36.7%​	49.3%​	0.96​
2004	63.0%​	29.1%​	7.0%​	60.8%​	43.6%​	54.3%​	41.4%​	48.0%​	0.91​
Career	86.1%​	31.8%​	7.3%​	74.1%​	55.5%​	67.6%​	42.1%​	54.5%​	1.30 ​

 

[Sudacafan]

What is Djokovic's worst nightmare?
Nadal winning Roland Garros and more.
24 won't be enough, and that is the end of Djokovic's life, because he's obsessed with records, and is about to lose the most important record of all.
And now he's let Sinner out of the bag, making it even more likely that Djokovic will retire with 24.
Nadal, Carlos, Sinner, will block every path.

W N 2 A N...
OK, I give up. I can't get make head or tails of this clue.

 

[nolefam_2024]

His HLD% is second best last year. Just behind 2015. Return % is far worse. Can you filter out clay from the stats? Clay he is not fit early on nowadays.