What Is Going Wrong For Novak Djokovic?- from Jeff Sackmann
- Thread starter Rovesciarete
- Start date
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Djokovic and Sinner are indeed again quite similar in those splits. Sinner is a better server plus player as 22-year old Djokovic but current Nole is superb. The incredible percentage of break points saved pulls Jannik over the last 52 weeks almost to Nole's level. In the last half year Sinner is with over 90% holding almost as many serve games as Isner.
Djokovic Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top
Split | Win% | Set% | Game% | MS | Hld% | Brk% | A% | 1stIn | 1st% | 2nd% | SPW | RPW | TPW | DR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard | 88.9% | 80.2% | 60.2% | 45 | 89.6% | 29.0% | 10.1% | 62.8% | 78.0% | 57.7% | 70.5% | 40.9% | 55.1% | 1.38 |
| Clay | 80.0% | 76.7% | 58.6% | 15 | 81.0% | 35.3% | 5.9% | 66.9% | 71.6% | 53.2% | 65.5% | 44.5% | 54.5% | 1.29 |
| Grass | 85.7% | 80.0% | 57.4% | 7 | 93.9% | 18.4% | 8.6% | 64.6% | 77.6% | 60.9% | 71.7% | 35.5% | 53.6% | 1.25 |
| Grand Slams | 94.1% | 86.1% | 61.9% | 34 | 90.4% | 31.3% | 9.1% | 64.3% | 77.3% | 56.6% | 69.9% | 42.2% | 55.7% | 1.40 |
| Masters | 87.5% | 76.3% | 56.4% | 16 | 82.9% | 28.3% | 6.9% | 61.9% | 74.3% | 56.9% | 67.6% | 39.8% | 53.2% | 1.23 |
| Other Tours | 71.4% | 61.8% | 56.1% | 14 | 87.7% | 23.8% | 10.0% | 65.6% | 75.2% | 59.1% | 69.6% | 39.1% | 53.5% | 1.29 |
| Best of 5 | 94.1% | 86.1% | 61.9% | 34 | 90.4% | 31.3% | 9.1% | 64.3% | 77.3% | 56.6% | 69.9% | 42.2% | 55.7% | 1.40 |
| Best of 3 | 78.8% | 69.6% | 56.2% | 33 | 85.4% | 25.8% | 8.7% | 63.6% | 75.2% | 58.0% | 68.9% | 39.5% | 53.4% | 1.27 |
Sinner Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top
Split | Win% | Set% | Game% | MS | Hld% | Brk% | A% | 1stIn | 1st% | 2nd% | SPW | RPW | TPW | DR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard | 84.6% | 77.2% | 59.1% | 61 | 89.3% | 28.6% | 8.4% | 60.3% | 76.5% | 55.7% | 68.2% | 40.4% | 54.0% | 1.27 |
| Clay | 66.7% | 66.7% | 58.8% | 11 | 80.9% | 37.9% | 3.6% | 58.0% | 71.1% | 57.0% | 65.2% | 44.8% | 54.7% | 1.29 |
| Grass | 72.7% | 67.7% | 57.2% | 11 | 90.6% | 23.5% | 11.7% | 57.9% | 80.0% | 58.8% | 71.1% | 39.3% | 53.7% | 1.36 |
| Grand Slams | 82.6% | 75.9% | 60.6% | 23 | 89.8% | 31.4% | 8.9% | 59.0% | 77.3% | 57.2% | 69.1% | 41.8% | 54.8% | 1.35 |
| Masters | 75.9% | 69.8% | 57.5% | 27 | 85.5% | 30.1% | 6.6% | 58.1% | 75.9% | 54.6% | 67.0% | 41.2% | 53.8% | 1.25 |
| Other Tours | 81.8% | 75.7% | 57.6% | 30 | 88.7% | 25.4% | 8.3% | 61.2% | 75.3% | 57.0% | 68.2% | 39.5% | 53.4% | 1.24 |
| Best of 5 | 82.6% | 75.9% | 60.6% | 23 | 89.8% | 31.4% | 8.9% | 59.0% | 77.3% | 57.2% | 69.1% | 41.8% | 54.8% | 1.35 |
| Best of 3 | 80.0% | 73.6% | 57.8% | 60 | 87.5% | 27.8% | 7.8% | 60.0% | 75.6% | 55.8% | 67.7% | 40.2% | 53.7% | 1.25 |
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Nole easily above 30% break % in slams but his numbers drop very fast for masters and then small tournaments.
The thing is Nole can't play week in week out same tennis but in slams he peaks 42% return pts is no joke.
The thing is Nole can't play week in week out same tennis but in slams he peaks 42% return pts is no joke.
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Nole has quite a few more DF, indicating that he goes big on the second serve. If Sinner continues with his form somewhat his splits will go considerably up. Very low numbers but Nole had more trouble to break on grass last year and had less first serve percentages than Jannik. Obviously he faced two of the best returners back-to-back.
Sinner had of course a more open draw but his grass splits are promising and look actually good over his career. Less quality opponents make them look better but Sinner should be dangerous in Wimbledon if he arrives fit and in form.
Sinner had of course a more open draw but his grass splits are promising and look actually good over his career. Less quality opponents make them look better but Sinner should be dangerous in Wimbledon if he arrives fit and in form.
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Overall I do think that at Wimbledon Alcaraz, Djokovic and Sinner should be once again rather close. Carlos did amazingly well last year. Interestingly also to see that Sinner was serving more aggressive than the others again. His numbers have improved the most over the last half year.
Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top
Split | Win% | Set% | Game% | MS | Hld% | Brk% | A% | DF% | 1stIn | 1st% | 2nd% | SPW | RPW | TPW | DR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard | 76.2% | 72.4% | 56.3% | 42 | 85.9% | 26.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 65.3% | 72.7% | 57.7% | 67.5% | 40.4% | 53.2% | 1.24 |
| Clay | 89.3% | 81.4% | 61.2% | 28 | 82.8% | 39.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 67.3% | 69.9% | 56.2% | 65.4% | 45.3% | 55.0% | 1.31 |
| Grass | 100.0% | 86.1% | 59.3% | 12 | 90.4% | 26.3% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 64.3% | 76.2% | 55.1% | 68.7% | 40.5% | 54.2% | 1.29 |
| Grand Slams | 87.5% | 79.7% | 60.1% | 24 | 88.9% | 30.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 65.9% | 73.5% | 59.6% | 68.7% | 42.3% | 54.8% | 1.35 |
| Masters | 80.6% | 73.6% | 56.3% | 31 | 85.0% | 27.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 65.0% | 71.9% | 57.0% | 66.7% | 40.5% | 52.9% | 1.22 |
| Other Tours | 85.2% | 80.0% | 58.8% | 27 | 82.5% | 35.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 66.6% | 71.6% | 53.0% | 65.4% | 43.3% | 54.1% | 1.25 |
| Best of 5 | 87.5% | 79.7% | 60.1% | 24 | 88.9% | 30.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 65.9% | 73.5% | 59.6% | 68.7% | 42.3% | 54.8% | 1.35 |
| Best of 3 | 82.8% | 76.5% | 57.4% | 58 | 83.9% | 30.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 65.8% | 71.8% | 55.2% | 66.1% | 41.7% | 53.4% | 1.23 |
GrandSlam24
Semi-Pro
Yes, I know. I have to get used to it. It's clear about Wimbledon 2019. I was clinically dead four times during that match.
GrandSlam24
Semi-Pro
So you're more in favour of Novak?
I had to translate the text to understand it properly. Novak has won everything. I definitely like Alcaraz more than Sinner! I have Medvedev slightly ahead of Alcaraz. Not much, but a little.
robyrolfo
Hall of Fame
Yes, it's only one match. But Novak looked completely lost, and didn't even manage a push after winning the 3rd set TB and having some momentum. So it's natural that people will speculate, given the nature of the loss.
For all the people giving Novak a pass with "bad day at the office," which I think is fair, they also have to take into consideration that Sinner was SUPER tight and nervous in the YEC final match (as he was at the AO final), and didn't play his best tennis. So people shouldn't read too much into Novak losing this semi at the AO, but they should also take it easy with reading too much into the YEC finals win.
Anyone saying "it's just one match" didn't read the OP or the article he linked to. Another choice nugget:
"The two marathon break points that Fritz saved were not exceptions. 64 of the 269 points in the quarter-final reached a seventh shot, and the American won more than half of them."
Outrallied by Fritz. That's extremely worrying. There've been a few guys who can take it to him in longer rallies for quite a while – even Zverev since 2018, apparently, which I hadn't exactly expected. Medvedev, Alcaraz, and Sinner too, of course. As he gets older, that circle is only going to get wider. And as he wins fewer and fewer long rallies, he'll have to rely even more on high-end serving and first-strike tennis. Which of course so far he's done an amazing job at implementing. I don't think he's falling off a cliff. Australia was probably well below his normal level even now at 36. But he can be and will be outmaneuvered and outlasted by an increasing number of guys 10+ years younger. It's just a matter of how much longer he can stem the tide.
"The two marathon break points that Fritz saved were not exceptions. 64 of the 269 points in the quarter-final reached a seventh shot, and the American won more than half of them."
Outrallied by Fritz. That's extremely worrying. There've been a few guys who can take it to him in longer rallies for quite a while – even Zverev since 2018, apparently, which I hadn't exactly expected. Medvedev, Alcaraz, and Sinner too, of course. As he gets older, that circle is only going to get wider. And as he wins fewer and fewer long rallies, he'll have to rely even more on high-end serving and first-strike tennis. Which of course so far he's done an amazing job at implementing. I don't think he's falling off a cliff. Australia was probably well below his normal level even now at 36. But he can be and will be outmaneuvered and outlasted by an increasing number of guys 10+ years younger. It's just a matter of how much longer he can stem the tide.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
But isn't it the opposite. People said that beating him in a semi or final would be more noteworthy.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
It's curious that people are saying that when it happened at the AO of all places.
BauerAlmeida
Hall of Fame
It's a more noteworthy win for the guy that beats him for sure, but it's less "worrying" from Djokovic's side losing in the SF to a top guy than losing early to a journeyman.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
I agree. But the manner of the loss wasn't pretty.
BauerAlmeida
Hall of Fame
Yep, we'll see at the Sunshine double how he plays or if he plays Dubai or whatever. He played great at the YEC not long ago so it can't be that impossible to reach that level again.
The first two sets were awful, yeah, but he managed to win a set despite playing terribly and the fourth one could have been different if he hadn't lost his serve from 40-0 up. So although the loss wasn't pretty he managed to at least get some positives from that 3rd set I suppose.
BauerAlmeida
Hall of Fame
Until he loses and he is a clown again like Alcaraz lol
duaneeo
Legend
He was pushed to 5 sets by Fritz at 2021 AO and to 4 sets by Tiafoe, Raonic, and Zverev. Yet he won the semis and finals in straight sets, and would end the year within a match of the CYGS. Djokovic has had many "worrying" performances vs NextGens at the slams, but usually still won.
jmacdaununder2
Legend
The much touted (G)CYGS is gone before it even got started, leaving Laver as the 2-0 goat - unless Sinner wins it all this year of course.
CHillTennis
Hall of Fame
I can't believe so many people are saying that Sinner will win a CYGS.
The dude almost lost in straights to Medvedev.
Don't drink the kool-aide!
The dude almost lost in straights to Medvedev.
Don't drink the kool-aide!
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jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
He’s not always going to play at a 100% level. He must lose at some point, right?
The only thing he has to worry about right now, is motivation. He’s literally the greatest tennis player to have ever played in the history of tennis and there’s no one else to chase after as he’s the apex and it’s very doubtful anybody will ever best him.
Knowing that is probably makes it really difficult to wake up every morning to pursue everything with the same hunger that he did when he was at the bottom losing to Andy Roddick.
The only thing he has to worry about right now, is motivation. He’s literally the greatest tennis player to have ever played in the history of tennis and there’s no one else to chase after as he’s the apex and it’s very doubtful anybody will ever best him.
Knowing that is probably makes it really difficult to wake up every morning to pursue everything with the same hunger that he did when he was at the bottom losing to Andy Roddick.
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jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
This is the same exact thing that we went through with all of the Alcarez fans
It’s just a bunch of little kids
Cindysphinx
G.O.A.T.
Don’t you see? He had Covid.
He was carrying a snot rag with him in an early round. He was working hard against journeymen. He had no energy. He looked resigned in the semis.
And as a bunch of Serbian kids can tell you, he won’t stay home when he has Covid.
He was carrying a snot rag with him in an early round. He was working hard against journeymen. He had no energy. He looked resigned in the semis.
And as a bunch of Serbian kids can tell you, he won’t stay home when he has Covid.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
No one actually believes he's going to do that.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
jmacdaununder2
Legend
Just noting that he has a mathematical possibility, nothing more.
jmacdaununder2
Legend
What happened to the talk about the GCYGS - admittedly most of it was from his father? (Formula for the apex is still RLx2.)
jmacdaununder2
Legend
Highly ironic if true.
True, but I think the specific trend of being outrallied in longer points is quite a bit more pronounced today than it was three years ago. Case in point: Novak handily beat Med with his normal baseline game in the 2021 Aussie final but at the US Open last year he had to start dive-bombing the net in the second set because he was getting too winded in the longer rallies (and this against a Med who wasn't even playing close to as well as he can).
THUNDERVOLLEY
G.O.A.T.
Its recognizing the agenda regarding Djokovic. For a year, what have we heard? "Alcaraz is going to win ___amount of slams!", "Alcaraz and Sinner are going to take over!" and similarly wild predictions which have not come close to being true. Of the five majors played since AO 2023, how many were won by anyone not named Djokovic?
mike danny
Bionic Poster
So what I gather from this is that Carlos and Sinner should not be losing in BO5 to Novak from now on, but I think we all know what will happen.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
He's finally getting old enough that even young mugs have the decency to stop quintuple declined vulturevic on a bad day. On a good day Joe would probably still slap them silly, nothing I've seen in their games points differently.
GrandSlam24
Semi-Pro
This is the new era. There is too much reporting and communication. It confuses the mind. You have to stay relaxed. Reality is always a little different. At least it has been so far. Nowadays, people communicate on a whim, not out of necessity.
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
All the talk?
No one said it was happening, but we see it’s very possible so of course people will speculate.
Novak is one of the few rare players where it’s always a possibility, but nothing more and all of his fans understand that.
Also, that’s his parent. Of course good parents that celebrate their children think they are superheroes capable of anything.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
It has been noticeable that he wins a lower % of long rallies in the last couple of years than he ever did before particularly against top players with elite BHs. He has adjusted and continued to win Slams because he has learned to dominate shorter points especially on his service games with better/bigger spot serving and bigger/higher pace FHs. His % of serve hold games goes up whereas his % of return points/games goes down as his career winds down. Hence his increasing dependence on winning TBs to win matches against top players who can hang with him from the BL.
It is not an issue against players outside the top 10, but his ability to win long rallies and put constant pressure during return games has increasingly been an issue playing against top 5 players. Kudos to him for making all the right improvements to his game and tactics to win at a high rate still. But I think he will increasingly struggle to win on slower courts against the best players with the best BHs. I think the book on Djokovic for elite players is to rally with him BH-BH rather than FH-FH and I see more and more players hitting DTL early to move point patterns to CC BH rallies - Sinner in particular does that often.
The big FH/weaker BH guys like Tsitsipas, Ruud, Fritz, Rublev do worse against him than the solid guys on both wings like Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev, Zverev etc. It seems like Djokovic moves to his BH wing worser than he used to and so he is less aggressive to pull the trigger for winners or to change the angle and hit DTL frequently. Is this correctable or is it just an inevitable sign of age?
It is not an issue against players outside the top 10, but his ability to win long rallies and put constant pressure during return games has increasingly been an issue playing against top 5 players. Kudos to him for making all the right improvements to his game and tactics to win at a high rate still. But I think he will increasingly struggle to win on slower courts against the best players with the best BHs. I think the book on Djokovic for elite players is to rally with him BH-BH rather than FH-FH and I see more and more players hitting DTL early to move point patterns to CC BH rallies - Sinner in particular does that often.
The big FH/weaker BH guys like Tsitsipas, Ruud, Fritz, Rublev do worse against him than the solid guys on both wings like Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev, Zverev etc. It seems like Djokovic moves to his BH wing worser than he used to and so he is less aggressive to pull the trigger for winners or to change the angle and hit DTL frequently. Is this correctable or is it just an inevitable sign of age?
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jmacdaununder2
Legend
Good insights; do you think he has anything new up his sleeve for clay, where the serve +1 tactic - albeit hybridised in intensity/risk his case - is usually more difficult to effect?
duaneeo
Legend
Djokovic has declined with every passing year, but that hasn't stopped him from dominating players of Medvedev's generation at the slams. He hasn't suffered a loss to them since his 2021 CYGS attempt at the USO.
Again, what's going wrong for Nole isn't his declined game, but the 3rd generation of NextGens. Without them, he'd be more dominant than ever at the slams.
CHillTennis
Hall of Fame
Novak played badly in the Australian Open semis. Normal level Djokovic would have beaten Sinner in 4.
CHillTennis
Hall of Fame
There's probably as good of a chance of the Lions winning the Super Bowl next year.
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socallefty
G.O.A.T.
He upped the pace on his FH dramatically last year without increasing his UF errors much. Can he do that on the BH this year to counter Sinner/Alcaraz or is it not as easy to increase pace on this wing as he hits a flatter BH with less RPM than his FH? His net clearance on the BH is much lower than Sinner for instance and so he needs to up the spin/trajectory if he wants to increase pace without increasing UFEs. He is not as tall as Medvedev where he can hit flat and keep UFEs down as his contact height is lower than the taller Russian who gets away with non-textbook swings and less RPM without impacting his shot tolerance.
The last couple of years, Djokovic makes a lot of errors when he tries to up the pace on his BH. That’s why he has become more prone to bail out of long BH rallies with drop shots earlier than he used to do. He can’t outhit elite players on that wing by hitting harder in long rallies anymore. Who would have thought that the GOAT BH from a decade ago would deteriorate enough to become his exploitable wing while his FH got better?
He should take the IW/Miami swing off and retool his BH for the clay season and the rest of the year as he didn’t seem to improve this in the offseason. I was hoping that he would come out of the off-season with a harder, spinnier BH like he used to hit during his glory days in 2015-16. If you watch replays from those years, you will see that his shot trajectory over the net was higher and no one could hit through his defenses on either wing especially as he hit the ball early and robbed opponents of time.
duaneeo
Legend
Below-normal level Djokovic would've beaten Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Berrettini, Hurkacz, Rublev, Khachanov, Fritz.....
jmacdaununder2
Legend
Yeah, it's often so long between mugs that there's not enough data points to make meaningful comparisons.
jmacdaununder2
Legend
“You can win the four Grand Slams and the Olympic gold. Let’s see,” (Novak Djokovic Nov '23.)
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
Yes, he could do that as it’s within the realm of possibilities considering his history of achievements.
Pay attention to the last line *LET’S SEE*
That means we’re unsure and we will just have to wait and see how things unfold in order to find out whether or not that will actually happen even happen
Does that make sense to you child?
messiahrobins
Legend
I do wonder if nadal coming back in the form he showed in brisbane has rattled djokovic. He looked on edge all summer down in australia. He could be feeling the heat with RG as the next slam and perhaps he felt he needed to win AO to have breathing space.Things are headed in the right direction
Should nadal win rg perhaps it was always destined for the goat debate to be settled at wimbledon in a final between nadal and djokovic as it would be basically winner takes all one would think as i doubt either win a hard court slam again.
CHillTennis
Hall of Fame
Djokovic played below his normal level against Medvedev at the 2021 US Open and lost to him in straight sets.
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