What Is Going Wrong For Novak Djokovic?- from Jeff Sackmann

[duaneeo]

Djokovic played below his normal level against Medvedev at the 2021 US Open and lost to him in straight sets.

Nole lost to the pressure of the CYGS in straight sets.

Medvedev quickly showed the USO win was an anomaly when he blew a 2-0 lead to Nadal at the next slam.

 

[guga_fan]

He upped the pace on his FH dramatically last year without increasing his UF errors much. Can he do that on the BH this year to counter Sinner/Alcaraz or is it not as easy to increase pace on this wing as he hits a flatter BH with less RPM than his FH? His net clearance on the BH is much lower than Sinner for instance and so he needs to up the spin/trajectory if he wants to increase pace without increasing UFEs. He is not as tall as Medvedev where he can hit flat and keep UFEs down as his contact height is lower than the taller Russian who gets away with non-textbook swings and less RPM without impacting his shot tolerance.

The last couple of years, Djokovic makes a lot of errors when he tries to up the pace on his BH. That’s why he has become more prone to bail out of long BH rallies with drop shots earlier than he used to do. He can’t outhit elite players on that wing by hitting harder in long rallies anymore. Who would have thought that the GOAT BH from a decade ago would deteriorate enough to become his exploitable wing while his FH got better?

He should take the IW/Miami swing off and retool his BH for the clay season and the rest of the year as he didn’t seem to improve this in the offseason. I was hoping that he would come out of the off-season with a harder, spinnier BH like he used to hit during his glory days in 2015-16. If you watch replays from those years, you will see that his shot trajectory over the net was higher and no one could hit through his defenses on either wing especially as he hit the ball early and robbed opponents of time.

Didn’t he change his backhand after his injury in the end of 2019? The decline after that time was very pronounced.

 

[Rovesciarete]

It has been noticeable that he wins a lower % of long rallies in the last couple of years than he ever did before particularly against top players with elite BHs. He has adjusted and continued to win Slams because he has learned to dominate shorter points especially on his service games with better/bigger spot serving and bigger/higher pace FHs. His % of serve hold games goes up whereas his % of return points/games goes down as his career winds down. Hence his increasing dependence on winning TBs to win matches against top players who can hang with him from the BL.

Indeed. He has discovered his inner Roger without losing too much of the old Djokovic even at this age, holding a very high percentage of games. Against pure ball bashers he still can break quite a bit by returning deep and waiting for errors and his chances.

It is not an issue against players outside the top 10, but his ability to win long rallies and put constant pressure during return games has increasingly been an issue playing against top 5 players. Kudos to him for making all the right improvements to his game and tactics to win at a high rate still. But I think he will increasingly struggle to win on slower courts against the best players with the best BHs. I think the book on Djokovic for elite players is to rally with him BH-BH rather than FH-FH and I see more and more players hitting DTL early to move point patterns to CC BH rallies - Sinner in particular does that often.

I think this depends a bit on the circumstances, but for players like Medvedev and Zverev this has been the case for quite some time.

The big FH/weaker BH guys like Tsitsipas, Ruud, Fritz, Rublev do worse against him than the solid guys on both wings like Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev, Zverev etc. It seems like Djokovic moves to his BH wing worser than he used to and so he is less aggressive to pull the trigger for winners or to change the angle and hit DTL frequently. Is this correctable or is it just an inevitable sign of age?

There is no doubt that Novak can still punish a relative weaker backhand wing. Overall he is still a much stronger player with ample margin against most and he loses longer rallies only to elite players with a good to excellent backhand.

 

[CHillTennis]

Nole lost to the pressure of the CYGS in straight sets.

Medvedev quickly showed the USO win was an anomaly when he blew a 2-0 lead to Nadal at the next slam.

Right. And Sinner got destroyed by Djokovic at Wimbledon and the World Tour Finals.

Novak choked in Australia.

That's the only reason why Sinner won.

 

[GrandSlam24]

Djokovic has been ranked No. 1 for a record total of 410 weeks in a record 13 different years, and finished as the year-end No. 1 a record eight times. Djokovic has won a record 24 Grand Slam men's singles titles, including a record ten Australian Open titles. Overall, he has won 98 singles titles, including a record 71 Big Titles: 24 majors, a record 40 Masters, and a record seven ATP Finals. Djokovic is the only man in tennis history to be the reigning champion of all four majors at once across three different surfaces. In singles, he is the only man to achieve a triple Career Grand Slam, and the only player to complete a career Golden Masters, a feat he has achieved twice.

 

[duaneeo]

Novak choked in Australia.

That's the only reason why Sinner won.

Medvedev would've lost.

 

[CHillTennis]

Medvedev would've lost.

Not with the way that Novak played in the first couple of sets.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I was revisiting the original article and looked at Novak’s trends to gauge how well he could do in 2025:

Down Under, though, those skills went missing. Based on 278 charted matches since the start of 2015, the following table shows the percentage of points each year that he takes to seven shots or more, and his success rate in those rallies:

Year 7+ Freq 7+ Win%
2015 23.3% 54.9%
2016 26.7% 53.1%
2017 29.1% 53.3%
2018 24.4% 52.6%
2019 25.0% 55.1%

2020 26.0% 54.3%
2021 23.8% 53.6%
2022 23.2% 54.7%
2023 23.4% 54.1%
2024 26.0% 49.8%

The 7+ win% has returned towards Nole’s mean, but it is lower than 2023 or 2022. This could bode well for 2025. I do ’t have the frequency data. To offers some context:

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-12-02 (sorted according to the 10+ win percentage)

Player​ RallyLen​ 1-3 W%​ 4-6 W%​ 7-9 W%​ 10+ W%​ FH/GS​ FHP/Match​ BHP/Match​ Alex De Minaur​ 5.0​ 48.1%​ 51.5%​ 52.7%​ 57.6%​ 48.2%​ 7.4​ 1.1​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 4.0​ 52.6%​ 55.5%​ 54.2%​ 57.1%​ 52.9%​ 12.2​ 2.4​ Jannik Sinner​ 4.2​ 54.5%​ 57.4%​ 54.5%​ 56.2%​ 51.1%​ 13.0​ 6.2​ Daniil Medvedev​ 4.9​ 50.0%​ 50.2%​ 53.2%​ 55.8%​ 44.3%​ 5.7​ 4.9​ Stefanos Tsitsipas​ 3.9​ 51.2%​ 50.1%​ 49.5%​ 53.2%​ 52.4%​ 11.4​ -1.4​ Novak Djokovic​ 4.6​ 54.5%​ 56.1%​ 54.0%​ 52.8%​ 49.4%​ 12.4​ 7.9​

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

The 7+ win% has returned towards Nole’s mean, but it is lower than 2023 or 2022. This could bode well for 2025.

From 2015-2023 his average win % for 7+ rallies was 53.8%. Then dropping drastically to under 50% during 2024.
But now The Djoker has raised his 2024 average win % to 54.0%? That is a remarkable turnaround in 2024.

 

[Rovesciarete]

From 2015-2023 his average win % for 7+ rallies was 53.8%. Then dropping drastically to under 50% during 2024.
But now The Djoker has raised his 2024 average win % to 54.0%? That is a remarkable turnaround in 2024.

7+ means that we are talking about at least seven shot rallies…

I would guess 53.4-7% for 2024, which shows a downward trend, probably due to aging and injuries…

 

[Rovesciarete]

Let us see how Novak is doing in the longer rallies nowadays, compared to the data of the blog post.

Post AO 2024, 52 weeks:

Player	1-3 W%​	4-6 W%​	7-9 W%​	10+ W%​	FH/GS​	BH Slice%​	FHP/Match​	FHP/100​	BHP/Match​	BHP/100​
Carlos Alcaraz	51.5%​	55.8%​	54.8%​	55.7%​	51.9%​	18.4%​	10.0​	8.7​	2.0​	2.1​
Jannik Sinner	53.7%​	53.9%​	52.4%​	53.6%​	51.4%​	5.8%​	7.3​	5.2​	1.6​	1.2​
Novak Djokovic	54.0%​	55.7%​	51.6%​	54.7%​	50.0%​	16.3%​	13.5​	8.4​	4.1​	3.0​

Novak had become the dominant serve plus player among the tennis elite while still winning lots of longer rallies. There the AO 2024 raised a lot of questions. Let us seen the recent stats...

 

[Rovesciarete]

Djokovic holds up better in the longer rallies, but I have not data on their frequency. In the most important category, the shortest points, he has dropped quite a bit. Note the big performance jump of Sinneraz in that category.

Current 52 weeks:

Player	1-3 W%​	4-6 W%​	7-9 W%​	10+ W%​	FH/GS​	BH Slice%​	FHP/Match​	FHP/100​	BHP/Match​	BHP/100​
Carlos Alcaraz	52.6%​	55.8%​	54.8%​	54.8%​	52.9%​	17.1%​	10.7​	9.4​	3.1​	3.2​
Jannik Sinner	54.5%​	57.1%​	54.2%​	57.9%​	51.4%​	7.9%​	14.1​	10.3​	7.1​	5.6​
Novak Djokovic	53.3%​	55.7%​	51.9%​	55.8%​	50.5%​	15.5%​	11.4​	9.0​	7.2​	6.4​

The development in baseline potency is very intriguing. Novak doing better with his backhand but worse with his forehand. A bigger difference between the two categories FHP/Match and FHP/100 for the stronger servers, Novak and Jannik.

 

[Pheasant]

Djokovic holds up better in the longer rallies, but I have not data on their frequency. In the most important category, the shortest points, he has dropped quite a bit. Note the big performance jump of Sinneraz in that category.

Current 52 weeks:

Player	1-3 W%​	4-6 W%​	7-9 W%​	10+ W%​	FH/GS​	BH Slice%​	FHP/Match​	FHP/100​	BHP/Match​	BHP/100​
Carlos Alcaraz	52.6%​	55.8%​	54.8%​	54.8%​	52.9%​	17.1%​	10.7​	9.4​	3.1​	3.2​
Jannik Sinner	54.5%​	57.1%​	54.2%​	57.9%​	51.4%​	7.9%​	14.1​	10.3​	7.1​	5.6​
Novak Djokovic	53.3%​	55.7%​	51.9%​	55.8%​	50.5%​	15.5%​	11.4​	9.0​	7.2​	6.4​

The development in baseline potency is very intriguing. Novak doing better with his backhand but worse with his forehand. A bigger difference between the two categories FHP/Match and FHP/100 for the stronger servers, Novak and Jannik.

Sinner’s stats are otherworldly. If he keeps improving like this, then he should be able to hang onto his #1 rating for quite some time.

Wimbledon is going to be very interesting this year.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Sinner’s stats are otherworldly. If he keeps improving like this, then he should be able to hang onto his #1 rating for quite some time.

Wimbledon is going to be very interesting this year.

I think it is already very difficult to sustain that level for Mr. Process. I find the ability of Novak to become stronger again in longer rallies even more fascinating. Fits with my perception that his fitness was mostly hampered by specific events last year.

Started to listen to his interview with Bilic and he said that he felt mentally exhausted during his semifinal against Jannik. Playing the United Cup was according to him an error and Goran had been rightly against it.