What Junior Slam correlates the best to success?

[The Guru]

Congrats to Niels McDonald on winning the Junior FO title. I always take a look at the winners just in case they might become future stars and it got me thinking which junior slam produces the best pros.

As I mentioned in an earlier thread, after this FO we are now in a 20 year drought for junior champs becoming slam champs but there have also been some very good players come from the junior slam winning pool. Anyway here's a list of the most notable champs at each slam since 2000:

AO: Roddick, Tipsarevic, Baghdatis, Monfils, Kyrgios, Zverev, Musetti
FO: Gasquet, Wawrinka, Monfils, Cilic, Rublev, Paul, Popyrin, Rune
W: Monfils, Chardy, Dimitrov, Shapovalov, ADF
USO: Roddick, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Dimitrov, Sock, Coric, Fritz, FAA, Fonseca

Seems like we have a pretty clear lose in Wimbledon who's two best champions also won other junior slams. Tight race between the USO and the FO this century. If Fonseca becomes what we think he can that could be a big differentiator.

 

[Cramerica]

Congrats to Niels McDonald on winning the Junior FO title. I always take a look at the winners just in case they might become future stars and it got me thinking which junior slam produces the best pros.

As I mentioned in an earlier thread, after this FO we are now in a 20 year drought for junior champs becoming slam champs but there have also been some very good players come from the junior slam winning pool. Anyway here's a list of the most notable champs at each slam since 2000:

AO: Roddick, Tipsarevic, Baghdatis, Monfils, Kyrgios, Zverev, Musetti
FO: Gasquet, Wawrinka, Monfils, Cilic, Rublev, Paul, Popyrin, Rune
W: Monfils, Chardy, Dimitrov, Shapovalov, ADF
USO: Roddick, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Dimitrov, Sock, Coric, Fritz, FAA, Fonseca

Seems like we have a pretty clear lose in Wimbledon who's two best champions also won other junior slams. Tight race between the USO and the FO this century. If Fonseca becomes what we think he can that could be a big differentiator.

Wimbledon juniors. Fonseca will not live up to what people think.

 

[zagor]

Congrats to Niels McDonald on winning the Junior FO title. I always take a look at the winners just in case they might become future stars and it got me thinking which junior slam produces the best pros.

As I mentioned in an earlier thread, after this FO we are now in a 20 year drought for junior champs becoming slam champs but there have also been some very good players come from the junior slam winning pool. Anyway here's a list of the most notable champs at each slam since 2000:

AO: Roddick, Tipsarevic, Baghdatis, Monfils, Kyrgios, Zverev, Musetti
FO: Gasquet, Wawrinka, Monfils, Cilic, Rublev, Paul, Popyrin, Rune
W: Monfils, Chardy, Dimitrov, Shapovalov, ADF
USO: Roddick, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Dimitrov, Sock, Coric, Fritz, FAA, Fonseca

Seems like we have a pretty clear lose in Wimbledon who's two best champions also won other junior slams. Tight race between the USO and the FO this century. If Fonseca becomes what we think he can that could be a big differentiator.

There was an article I read 5 years ago about this.

Junior Grand Slam champions: Edberg And Federer Lived Up To The Hype, But Who Did Not? - UBITENNIS

Tennis Focus, Grand Slam An in-depth analysis of the transition from junior to pro competition of the Major winners from 1988 to 2020. Some proved great champions as professionals (like Roddick and Wawrinka), while others dropped out of sight – someone even ended up traveling the world on a...

www.ubitennis.net

Here's the conclusion from the author:

Considering the 27 best results for each Slam, sorting the four Slams from the one with the lowest to the highest average ranking, the following are the results:

1. US Open: 37.55 (median value 17)

2. Roland Garros: 47.88 (median value 21)

3. Wimbledon: 63.85 (median value 39)

4. Australian Open: 77.29 (median value 83)

It seems clear that the US Open’s young winners are likelier to have a better career. On the other hand, the Australian Open is the only Grand Slam whose median value is higher than average: it means that those who have obtained a worse than average best ranking outweigh those who have obtained a better one.


Obviously it's outdated a bit by now, but still gives us the general idea.

 

[socallefty]

I’m guessing hard court Slams translate better to success as adults as most of the tour is on hard courts, but probably many juniors from Europe and the Americas don’t travel to the junior AO making that boys field more limited.

 

[Counter-pusher]

Might contain some error here and there.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Might contain some error here and there.

Anyone who made slam qf did pretty good , sf even better and final is the dream , slam winner is mission accomplished.