What man is going to finish as number 2 this year?

[timnz]

Federer has finished the last 8 seasons in the top 2 (2003 to 2010). Number 1 for certain is going to be Djokovic for year end 2011. Could Federer scrap in as number 2 by years end?

Nadal lost points at the US Open going from winner to runner up. Federer has a fair bit to defend post US Open to the end of the Season end finals.

Is there a scenario whereby Federer can pass Nadal? Could someone else get number 2?

 

[sadowsk2]

Probably no chance for Fed and his army of Fedards... Alot of the points moving forward are Feds to defend, and as we saw with Nadal losing points to Djoker earlier this year, Djoker is gonna steal those very same points from Fed... No way Fed will win the Barclays ATP World Finals unless Djoker gets hurt.

 

[Carsomyr]

Probably no chance for Fed and his army of Fedards... Alot of the points moving forward are Feds to defend, and as we saw with Nadal losing points to Djoker earlier this year, Djoker is gonna steal those very same points from Fed... No way Fed will win the Barclays ATP World Finals unless Djoker gets hurt.

:lol:

No chance? Really? Federer's decline in movement and timing are almost completely neutralized in fast indoor conditions. He's beaten Djokovic once this season on a slower surface and has been competitive in all but one match. This isn't even taking into consideration how gassed Djokovic looked post-USO.

Back to the topic, Federer has virtually no chance to finish the season as #2 - Rafa has it all but locked up. He might even finish as the #4 player.

 

[zagor]

Nah, no way Fed finishes #2, especially with the number of points he has to defend the rest of the year, I'd even bet Murray will overtake his #3 position.

:lol:

No chance? Really? Federer's decline in movement and timing are almost completely neutralized in fast indoor conditions. He's beaten Djokovic once this season on a slower surface and has been competitive in all but one match. This isn't even taking into consideration how gassed Djokovic looked post-USO.

Back to the topic, Federer has virtually no chance to finish the season as #2 - Rafa has it all but locked up. He might even finish as the #4 player.

Hint, you're talking to a Petros die-hard, reason and logic don't usually come into play with his kind when the topic is Fed, they just get too emotional.

I'd give Fed a decent chance of beating Novak indoors, at WTF in particular though I don't see Fed winning the whole thing, I think he'll lose to Nadal this time in SF or F.

 

[zagor]

@Timnz, why did you make this thread in this section of the forum? Fed isn't a former player, yet anyway.

 

[pc1]

Have to go with Nadal as number two. Isn't it amazing that already we know Djokovic is number one for the year?

 

[zagor]

Have to go with Nadal as number two. Isn't it amazing that already we know Djokovic is number one for the year?

What's even more amazing is how eerily similar his year is compared to Mac's 1984( losses in RG, DC and Cinncinati), hopefully Novak's next year is nothing like John's 1985.

 

[pc1]

What's even more amazing is how eerily similar his year is compared to Mac's 1984( losses in RG, DC and Cinncinati), hopefully Novak's next year is nothing like John's 1985.

You're right about that. It is very similar.

I like to see greatness and hopefully this year is the first of many super years for Djokovic. Who would have believed John McEnroe wouldn't have won another major after 1984?? If anyone said that at the end of 1984 people would have thought that person would be crazy.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Nadal is not mathematically eliminated from the year end #1 ranking yet.

 

[pc1]

Nadal is not mathematically eliminated from the year end #1 ranking yet.

Maybe not, I'm not sure of all the details but clearly with three majors and the incredible record Djokovic has had this year it would be hard not to say he didn't have the best year no matter what the ATP computer would say.

 

[NadalAgassi]

The only good thing if by some miracle Nadal ended the year #1 (which even as a fan I would embarassed by if it ever happened) is it would expose the ridiculous ranking system in place now, which fortunately the male players have performed enough to keep from coming to the forefront. On the womens side it is even worse.

If the ranking system made sense Djokovic would already be mathematically guaranteed the year end #1 by a minimum of several thousand points even if he didnt play another match the rest of the year, and Nadal won every tournament for the rest of the year.

 

[timnz]

Probably no chance for Fed and his army of Fedards... Alot of the points moving forward are Feds to defend, and as we saw with Nadal losing points to Djoker earlier this year, Djoker is gonna steal those very same points from Fed... No way Fed will win the Barclays ATP World Finals unless Djoker gets hurt.

Djokovic only beat federer by 1 point in the us open right? So how is it federer has no chance?

 

[pc1]

Djokovic only beat federer by 1 point in the us open right? So how is it federer has no chance?

One advantage that Federer has right now over Djokovic is that he seems to be uninjured. Djokovic had to retire in his match against del Potro in Davis Cup because of a back injury from the US Open. Nadal also seems strong now judging by his Davis Cup performance.

 

[zagor]

You're right about that. It is very similar.

I like to see greatness and hopefully this year is the first of many super years for Djokovic. Who would have believed John McEnroe wouldn't have won another major after 1984?? If anyone said that at the end of 1984 people would have thought that person would be crazy.

I mean look at these posts below, it's downright crazy, heck there are also rumours Novak even might be getting married soon .

I agree, no way could have anyone predicted McEnroe failing to win a major after 1984 but then again it's not an entirely unique case as a very similar thing happened to Wilander as well. Will be very interesting to see how will Novak career develop after an amazing 2011.

Djokovic won his first 24 matches on hard court, and then switched to clay. McEnroe won his first 24 matches on indoor carpet, and then switched to clay.

Novak won all his matches on clay, before finally losing in the Roland Garros. John won all his matches on clay, before finally losing in the Roland Garros.

After French Open, Djokovic switched to grass and won Wimbledon. After French Open, McEnroe switched to grass and won Wimbledon.

Following his triumph at the SW19, Novak switched to hard court and won in Canada, but lost in Cincinnati. Following his triumph at the SW19, John switched to hard court and won in Canada, but lost in Cincinnati.

In the classic semi-final match of the US Open 1984, McEnroe defeated Connors in 5 sets.

In the classic semi-final match of the US Open 2011, Djokovic defeated Federer in 5 sets.

McEnroe lost his third match in Davis Cup.

Djokovic lost his third match in Davis Cup.

 

[Nadal_Power]

Do we really need this thread in this part of the forum??

 

[Limpinhitter]

Nah, no way Fed finishes #2, especially with the number of points he has to defend the rest of the year, I'd even bet Murray will overtake his #3 position.

* * *

Why, do you have inside information that Murray's mom is going to give Fed the Jeff Gillooly treatment?

 

[Limpinhitter]

One advantage that Federer has right now over Djokovic is that he seems to be uninjured. Djokovic had to retire in his match against del Potro in Davis Cup because of a back injury from the US Open. Nadal also seems strong now judging by his Davis Cup performance.

It's astonishing how well Ralph came back from his chronic knee injuries. You don't hear a thing about that anymore. I hope Jaco can do the same.

 

[Bud]

Federer has finished the last 8 seasons in the top 2 (2003 to 2010). Number 1 for certain is going to be Djokovic for year end 2011. Could Federer scrap in as number 2 by years end?

Nadal lost points at the US Open going from winner to runner up. Federer has a fair bit to defend post US Open to the end of the Season end finals.

Is there a scenario whereby Federer can pass Nadal? Could someone else get number 2?

Not a chance. He'll be lucky to finish #3, ahead of Murray

http://live-tennis.eu/race

 

[jackson vile]

Probably no chance for Fed and his army of Fedards... Alot of the points moving forward are Feds to defend, and as we saw with Nadal losing points to Djoker earlier this year, Djoker is gonna steal those very same points from Fed... No way Fed will win the Barclays ATP World Finals unless Djoker gets hurt.

And with Novak's super Egg power he can heal instantly, so don't bet on an injury.

 

[marcub]

Serena, no doubt. Schiavone fell too much behind.

 

[sjam316]

Nadal. Rafa has been the 2nd best player in the world anyway you look at it. Federer had dropped to 4 behind Murray when I checked last week. That 3/4 match-up is probably the toughest one to determine, Murray's done better at the GS (1 Final, 3 SF) than Federer (1 Final, 2 SF, 1 QF) and also won Cincy. He has to defend a win at Shanghai, but Federer has to defend the WTF win, so I think it's likely that the year end rankings will be
Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer.

 

[Homeboy Hotel]

Just like Djokovic skipped the whole 'one rank at a time' scenario at #3, I'll go with Murray for #2! :twisted:

 

[Moose Malloy]

Djokovic only beat federer by 1 point in the us open right?

Djokovic won 18 more points than Federer in that match. That's a pretty big lead in points. Most 5 setters are much closer than that.
On paper, its odd that Fed even got to match point, considering those margins.
Djokovic won 18 straight points on serve at one point, I doubt anyone has had a streak on serve like that vs Fed before.

 

[Federer>Djokovic>Nadal]

Djokovic won 18 more points than Federer in that match. That's a pretty big lead in points. Most 5 setters are much closer than that.
On paper, its odd that Fed even got to match point, considering those margins.
Djokovic won 18 straight points on serve at one point, I doubt anyone has had a streak on serve like that vs Fed before.

All that wouldn't have mattered if Federer had won.

 

[timnz]

Federer still number 3

Nadal. Rafa has been the 2nd best player in the world anyway you look at it. Federer had dropped to 4 behind Murray when I checked last week. That 3/4 match-up is probably the toughest one to determine, Murray's done better at the GS (1 Final, 3 SF) than Federer (1 Final, 2 SF, 1 QF) and also won Cincy. He has to defend a win at Shanghai, but Federer has to defend the WTF win, so I think it's likely that the year end rankings will be
Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer.

That's 2011 points only. The ATP ranking is determined by the last 365 days ie some of 2010 and 2011 until the last match of 2011.

 

[OddJack]

Most likely Nadal.
Hope for Rodge tho

 

[veroniquem]

Hope for Rodge tho

Sorry but that doesn't seem likely, simply because Rafa has almost 0 point to defend in both Shanghai and Paris (lost early in Shanghai and didn't play Paris due to shoulder injury last year) while Fed defends a semi and a final there on top of the WTF title. It's gonna be very difficult for Fed to gain any points while it's almost impossible for Rafa NOT to gain some.

 

[Netzroller]

Nole as 1# and Rafa as 2#, everything else would feel akward.

3 GS + 5 MS (+1 final) > 1 GS (+2 finals) + 1 MS (+4 finals) + Barcelona > 1GS final + Doha

you could make a point for Murray as 3# given he has a Slam final and a ATP250 like Fed but also a MS title. Though I think Federer deserves the 3# more due to his RG performance.

 

[boredone3456]

Sorry but that doesn't seem likely, simply because Rafa has almost 0 point to defend in both Shanghai and Paris (lost early in Shanghai and didn't play Paris due to shoulder injury last year) while Fed defends a semi and a final there on top of the WTF title. It's gonna be very difficult for Fed to gain any points while it's almost impossible for Rafa NOT to gain some.

Exactly...Federer is already behind Nadal right now and has a lot more points to defend the rest of the year. He could gain a few, but even if he somehow does Nadal will likely gain just as many and possibly more simply because he earned so few before the WTF. Add in Djokovic's likelihood of continuing to be the human steamroller, Federer has very little actual chance to be year end #2 unless both Nadal and Djokovic fall apart epically and Federer wins every single tournament he enters the rest of the year and even then I don't think the odds are very good.

 

[BallistecMissile]

Federer is actually likely going to finish #4 in the world seeing as he will likely not repeat as WTF champion.

this is how i see everything ending for the rest of the year:

Top 10 End of 2011:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Ferrer
6. Fish
7. Tsonga
8. Monfils
9. Soderling
10. Roddick

Just missed:
Almagro, Berdych, Simon, Tipsarevic.

 

[Bud]

Federer is actually likely going to finish #4 in the world seeing as he will likely not repeat as WTF champion.

this is how i see everything ending for the rest of the year:

Top 10 End of 2011:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Ferrer
6. Fish
7. Tsonga
8. Monfils
9. Soderling
10. Roddick

Just missed:
Almagro, Berdych, Simon, Tipsarevic.

Completely agree with your top 5

If Murray decides to once again go brain dead, I san see him finishing #4 behind Federer. Just when it appears Murray is on a roll, his whole game can go off.

 

[boredone3456]

Federer is actually likely going to finish #4 in the world seeing as he will likely not repeat as WTF champion.

this is how i see everything ending for the rest of the year:

Top 10 End of 2011:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Ferrer
6. Fish
7. Tsonga
8. Monfils
9. Soderling
10. Roddick

Just missed:
Almagro, Berdych, Simon, Tipsarevic.

I'd pretty much agree with this. Federer has so many points to defend the rest of the year he really can only go down. I don't see him going ballistic and winning every tournament the rest of the year he plays, which is probably the only way he could finish higher then 4th barring an injury or something to somebody else. Murray could, as Bud said, go brain dead and Federer could finish 3rd, but it would need to be a lobotomy or something I think for that to happen. Despite the flashes at the French and US Open it just cannot be denied that Federer has, in comparison to past years, had a terrible year. No Major, no Master Series title, nothing really to show compared to Nadal to Merit being above him. If he does get number 2, I think it would be in large part due to others crashing and burning, no matter how good he does the rest of the year.

 

[Bud]

Murray is playing in 3 tournaments over the next 3 weeks for a potential total of 1,750 points (250+500+1,000)

Federer is playing Shanghai only for a possible total of 1,000 points

Currently, Murray is 280 points ahead of Federer. If he does well in all 3 tournaments, it'll be difficult for Federer to catch him before year's end.

 

[batz]

Murray is playing in 3 tournaments over the next 3 weeks for a potential total of 1,750 points (250+500+1,000)

Federer is playing Shanghai only for a possible total of 1,000 points

Currently, Murray is 280 points ahead of Federer. If he does well in all 3 tournaments, it'll be difficult for Federer to catch him before year's end.

In his DC press conference at the weekend he said that year end number 3 was a genuine priority for him and that he'd be doing everything he could to attain it. If he actually makes Thailand (and I'm not sure he will) he has a chance to go 530 points ahead of Roger by winning only 4 matches (it's a 28 man draw).

 

[BallistecMissile]

Pretty much the only spots that might be up for grabs in the top 6 are 3 and 4 between Fed and Murray.

Murray is defending 1,000 points in Shanghai and Fed is defending 600.

With Djokovic possibly not in the tournament, Murray would play Federer in the Semis. I have Murray beating Rafa and defending his points. so Murray gains another 300 point cushion to his lead making it 580 points due to Federer losing in the Semis.

In Basel, Djokovic should be back. Fed has 500 points to defend there, Djokovic beats him and fed loses another 250.

Murray has only 45 points to defend in Valencia (a possible +455), and 180 to defend in Paris (a possible +820). Murray has a good shot to make it to at least the Semis again in the WTF so that would defend his 400 points and if he makes the final that's a +600 point boost.

My argument is that Murray finishes 3rd and Federer finishes 4th, but as we all know anything can happen in tennis.

What I think is pretty set in stone though is that the top 6 in the world (depending on order for spots 3-6) will be:
Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer, Ferrer and Fish... Tsonga has an outside chance but my gut feeling is that Fish is going to end the year at #5, and Ferrer #6... Ferrer just has too many points to lose the rest of the year and Mardy too many to potentially gain.

But that's my two cents.

 

[batz]

Pretty much the only spots that might be up for grabs in the top 6 are 3 and 4 between Fed and Murray.

Murray is defending 1,000 points in Shanghai and Fed is defending 600.

With Djokovic possibly not in the tournament, Murray would play Federer in the Semis. I have Murray beating Rafa and defending his points. so Murray gains another 300 point cushion to his lead making it 580 points due to Federer losing in the Semis.

In Basel, Djokovic should be back. Fed has 500 points to defend there, Djokovic beats him and fed loses another 250.

Murray has only 45 points to defend in Valencia (a possible +455), and 180 to defend in Paris (a possible +820). Murray has a good shot to make it to at least the Semis again in the WTF so that would defend his 400 points and if he makes the final that's a +600 point boost.

My argument is that Murray finishes 3rd and Federer finishes 4th, but as we all know anything can happen in tennis.

What I think is pretty set in stone though is that the top 6 in the world (depending on order for spots 3-6) will be:
Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer, Ferrer and Fish... Tsonga has an outside chance but my gut feeling is that Fish is going to end the year at #5, and Ferrer #6... Ferrer just has too many points to lose the rest of the year and Mardy too many to potentially gain.

But that's my two cents.

This has to be the biggest mis-conception in tennis. It's amazing how often it comes up.

3rd and 4th seeds are drawn mate. Murray could be drawn to meet either Roger or Rafa in the semis (assuming Novak gives it a bye). This applies at every tournament.

 

[BallistecMissile]

This has to be the biggest mis-conception in tennis. It's amazing how often it comes up.

3rd and 4th seeds are drawn mate. Murray could be drawn to meet either Roger or Rafa in the semis (assuming Novak gives a it a bye). This applies at every tournament.

I know, but I'm saying there's no way Rafa is going to play the harder semi. In the grand scheme of things, the ATP knows that everyone wants to see either Nadal or Djokovic win the tournament but if Djokovic isn't in then Nadal will get the easy draw... sorry to burst your "draw is done at random" bubble.. why do you think Nadal didn't see Federer in the Semis of the US Open? Because that's a finals match, not a semis. Miami made this mistake and it cost them for sure. Nadal put a beatdown on Federer and made him look like a clown.

 

[Mainad]

Top 4 have these points to defend (between now and end of season). Federer has the most, Nadal the least.

Federer :

WTF (Champion) 1500
Shanghai (Finalist 600
Basel (Champion) 500
Paris (Semi-Finalist) 360
Stockholm (Champion) 250

Total: 3210


Djokovic:

Beijing (Champion) 500
WTF (Semi-Finalist) 400
Shanghai (Semi-Finalist) 360
Paris (Semi-Finalist) 360
Basel (Finalist) 300

Total: 1920


Murray:

Shanghai (Champion) 1000
WTF (Semi-Finalist) 400
Paris (Quarter-Finalist) 180
Beijing (Quarter-Finalist) 90
Valencia (Second Round) 45

Total: 1715


Nadal:

WTF (Finalist) 1000
Tokyo (Champion) 500
Thailand (Semi-Finalist) 90
Shanghai (Third Round) 90

Total: 1680

 

[zagor]

Sorry but that doesn't seem likely, simply because Rafa has almost 0 point to defend in both Shanghai and Paris (lost early in Shanghai and didn't play Paris due to shoulder injury last year) while Fed defends a semi and a final there on top of the WTF title. It's gonna be very difficult for Fed to gain any points while it's almost impossible for Rafa NOT to gain some.

I'd even go as far as to say it's downright impossible, Fed just has too much to defend.

As I said, I predict Murray will finish #3 ahead of Fed though that doesn't change a whole lot for either of them.

 

[TennisFan3]

I don't think Federer or Nadal give a flying f*** over the #2, #3 or #4 ranking, as long as they are not #1.

Djoko is the 3 slam winner this year, he's dominated Nadal (and Fed to a lesser extent), so no matter what the computer says he's head and shoulder above everyone else..

 

[Beryl]

Federer is actually likely going to finish #4 in the world seeing as he will likely not repeat as WTF champion.

this is how i see everything ending for the rest of the year:

Top 10 End of 2011:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Ferrer
6. Fish
7. Tsonga
8. Monfils
9. Soderling
10. Roddick

Just missed:
Almagro, Berdych, Simon, Tipsarevic.

Monfils and Roddick finishing in the top ten? Very little chance of that happening. They both need to at least make a masters series final or win an ATP 500 each to realistically make up their deficits. With Murray, Nadal, Federer, Tsonga, Fish, Soderling, Berdych and Delpo all lurking during the indoor season, I don't see it happening.

And Delpo falling to 15th or lower? Only by injury.

 

[timnz]

Federer WTF

Federer is actually likely going to finish #4 in the world seeing as he will likely not repeat as WTF champion.

Why? Federer has won the event 5 times and is the defending champion. Nadal has never won it and Djokovic has won once. The surface suits Federer more than the other two (Indoor is Nadal's worst surface), and Djokovic will be coming back from injury. Because of these facts Federer should be the favourite I would have thought.

 

[Clarky21]

Why? Federer has won the event 5 times and is the defending champion. Nadal has never won it and Djokovic has won once. The surface suits Federer more than the other two (Indoor is Nadal's worst surface), and Djokovic will be coming back from injury. Because of these facts Federer should be the favourite I would have thought.

I agree with you somewhat. I think the fav is still Cvac,then Fed,then Murray. Nadal won't win it as we all know so he doesn't even belong in the conversation to be the potential champion there.

 

[bullfan]

If this is about who will win WTF, I'd place think Novak, if he's really not as injured as he says. Otherwise, I think Murray. Considering Rafa's miserable hard courts this year, I would see him as the dark horse.

 

[roysid]

Go to atpworldtour website. For 2011 points, Federer is currently at #4, behind Murray at #3.

At best, Federer will finish #3. Djoko and Nadal #1 and #2 resp.

 

[timnz]

Federer number 3 currently

Go to atpworldtour website. For 2011 points, Federer is currently at #4, behind Murray at #3.

At best, Federer will finish #3. Djoko and Nadal #1 and #2 resp.

No that's not correct. Federer is number 3 currently. Go to:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

It shows:

Ranking as at 19th of September, 2011 (the most recent Monday)

Rank, Name & Nationality Points Week Change Tourn Played
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 14,720 0 19
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 10,620 0 21
3 Federer, Roger (SUI) 8,380 0 20
4 Murray, Andy (GBR) 7,165 0 19

The ranking is not based on 2011 results solely, it is based on the results of the last 52 weeks.

 

[roysid]

No that's not correct. Federer is number 3 currently. Go to:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

It shows:

Ranking as at 19th of September, 2011 (the most recent Monday)

Rank, Name & Nationality Points Week Change Tourn Played
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 14,720 0 19
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 10,620 0 21
3 Federer, Roger (SUI) 8,380 0 20
4 Murray, Andy (GBR) 7,165 0 19

The ranking is not based on 2011 results solely, it is based on the results of the last 52 weeks.

timnz, I said 2011 points only.
The rankings are calculated based on past 52 weeks (which includes 2010 Sep-Dec also).

By year end 2010 points will drop off.

To see only 2011 points, check the homepage
www.atpworldtour.com

Note: They are not rankings. But they are good indication of 2011 standings.

 

[timnz]

I see

timnz, I said 2011 points only.
The rankings are calculated based on past 52 weeks (which includes 2010 Sep-Dec also).

By year end 2010 points will drop off.

To see only 2011 points, check the homepage
www.atpworldtour.com

Note: They are not rankings. But they are good indication of 2011 standings.

I see what were trying to say now. My apologies.

 

[roysid]

I see what were trying to say now. My apologies.

No probs. If rankings matter it would be unreal for Roger to finish #2 and hard to finish as #3.

 

[glazkovss]

1. Novak
2. Rafa
3/4. Fed/Murray
5. Ferrer