What Roger needs to be #1

FEDERERNADAL13

FEDERERNADAL13

Legend
Hey Guys! I've been playing with the numbers, to see when it would be (somewhat) realistic for Federer to reclaim the #1 ranking... Here is what I've found:

Firstly, it would appear that Roger's best chance at #1 will come immediately following Wimbledon, as he out-gained Novak in the second half of the season.

From Canada-WTF last season, Roger out gained Novak 5000 to 4260 (740 point gap). If Roger is to become #1, he will get closer to Novak in the year-to-date rankings (Cut it down to less than 740 points, and the difference from last season will make up the rest).

The YTD rankings are currently as follows:

Novak: 3385 points
Roger: 1515 points

Difference: 1870 points

Roger will need to cut this number down to 740 should he want to be #1 in the world again.

The Schedule:

It will indeed be very hard for Roger to close the gap this much, with the clay season about to hit full swing, and with him skipping miami.

Roger's schedule includes:

-Monte Carlo
-Istanbul
-Madrid
-Rome
-RG
-Halle
-SW19

Novak will seemingly be playing:

-Miami
-Monte Carlo
-Madrid
-Rome
-RG
-SW19

The Results:

For Roger to reclaim #1, he will need to outplay Novak by 1130 points over the hardest part of his schedule, which will be difficult (though not impossible). He will need to:

-Go consistently deep in his tournaments
-Most likely will have to win a masters 1000 clay event (maybe Madrid or MC)
-Win the 250s he's scheduled to play
-really improve on his RG 2014 result (a Final here would be HUGE)
-Most likely WIN SW19

As we get closer to Wimbledon, I will be adding point totals and various scenarios... for now, let's enjoy the tennis!
 
Fed is NOT gonna become #1. That's completely delirious. He's already dropped to #5 in the race, he is not playing Miami and I doubt very much he's gonna shine on clay. I also have serious question marks about whether he can defend a final and semi at W/USO. People are going crazy here with their expectations of 30 something Fed.
Of course, aliens could land and kidnap Djoko tomorrow but still...
 
veroniquem said:
Fed is NOT gonna become #1. That's completely delirious. He's already dropped to #5 in the race, he is not playing Miami and I doubt very much he's gonna shine on clay. I also have serious question marks about whether he can defend a final and semi at W/USO. People are going crazy here with their expectations of 30 something Fed.
Of course, aliens could land and kidnap Djoko tomorrow but still...
Click to expand...

Roger needs to out gain Novak by about 1130 points by The Rogers cup to become #1. Although unlikely, it is definitely not "delirious and crazy".

Say roger wins Madrid and finals in Monte Carlo, semis at RG and wins Wimbledon... All of the sudden Roger is close if not there!

He is around 16-2 on the season, to count him out right now, when he just beat the world #1 and then took him to 3 sets, is "delirious, crazy"... It is reasonable to suggest that he has a CHANCE at #1...
 
Ship has sailed. Barring a career threatening injury for Novak, this is not happening .

Better odds of Raonic or Nishikori to get that spot
 
This looks very unlikely given Fed's record over the last year at big tournaments. He's always come up short against Rafa and Novak there, and also hasn't been able to grab the draw opportunities that came his way to go deep or even win it all, losing to Gulbis at RG and then Cilic at USO. Same thing happened at AO when he lost to Seppi. There's nothing to indicate that this will change.
 
The problem is not so much about Roger. He could very well hit those goals. But, even if he does, it's not likely that Djokovic will falter enough to create the opening he needs.

For starters, regardless of what he does on clay, it's unlikely he outperforms Djokovic during that stretch.

The point being simply that Djokovic isn't likely to play poor enough to open the door.

Losing in the 3rd round of Australia while Novak took the title (-1910 points), basically ended any possibility of this happening. Add to that the recent IW result where he missed a chance to gain 400 points. And that he's skipping Miami and Djokovic will likely go deep there. Unlikely is being kind.

But, let's entertain the idea...

So, we already know Federer needs to play great and advance deep in every event he plays, winning a fair share of them. His best chance would be at RG - he needs Nadal to drop out of the top 4, get in Djokovic's quarter and beat him there, while Federer gets in the opposite half and advances to the finals. Then he needs to win Wimbledon and hope Djokovic loses before the final.

Djokovic is too consistent.
 
Going to be very hard.

This shouldn't be a priority for Fed.

Should focus on winning titles and hopefully some big ones.
 
If Djokovic wins Miami, Federer needs to outperform him with 2000 points till Rogers Cup which is only going to happen with a RG-Wimbledon combo or couple of Masters + Slam title.

Fun fact , most likely Federer would enter Roland Garos seeded 2. So far in his career he has 100% success ratio when entering the French seeded second :)
 
FEDERERNADAL13 said:
Roger needs to out gain Novak by about 1130 points by The Rogers cup to become #1. Although unlikely, it is definitely not "delirious and crazy".

Say roger wins Madrid and finals in Monte Carlo, semis at RG and wins Wimbledon... All of the sudden Roger is close if not there!

He is around 16-2 on the season, to count him out right now, when he just beat the world #1 and then took him to 3 sets, is "delirious, crazy"... It is reasonable to suggest that he has a CHANCE at #1...
Click to expand...
Semi at RG + wins W? And what else? Final at USO?? None of that is even remotely realistic, sorry.
I can't believe how completely overboard people are going because Fed won a 500. They need to calm down.
 
spinovic said:
The problem is not so much about Roger. He could very well hit those goals. But, even if he does, it's not likely that Djokovic will falter enough to create the opening he needs.

For starters, regardless of what he does on clay, it's unlikely he outperforms Djokovic during that stretch.

The point being simply that Djokovic isn't likely to play poor enough to open the door.

Losing in the 3rd round of Australia while Novak took the title (-1910 points), basically ended any possibility of this happening. Add to that the recent IW result where he missed a chance to gain 400 points. And that he's skipping Miami and Djokovic will likely go deep there. Unlikely is being kind.

But, let's entertain the idea...

So, we already know Federer needs to play great and advance deep in every event he plays, winning a fair share of them. His best chance would be at RG - he needs Nadal to drop out of the top 4, get in Djokovic's quarter and beat him there, while Federer gets in the opposite half and advances to the finals. Then he needs to win Wimbledon and hope Djokovic loses before the final.

Djokovic is too consistent.
Click to expand...
Fed's days of beating Djoko at RG are done and dusted. Heck, possibly Fed's days of getting to Djoko at RG are done and dusted. People have completely lost their mind. They see Fed improving on clay? Really? At his age? On the basis of what? His phenomenal foot speed? His reflexes on the return? Get a grip people. Clay is the surface where Fed's game has declined the most. It's slower and more physically taxing than AO and we all know what happened there.
 
Djokovic hasn't had a truly dominant year since 2011, although he's been consistent. He doesn't have a strangle-hold on the #1 ranking like Federer did from 2004-2007.

Of course at this point it is on Djokovic's racket, since he won the AO and if he does well enough everywhere else he will end #1. If he does poorly at the French Open, or even Wimbledon that opens up the door to other players.
 
Roger needed to win IW to start things off, which he didn't do.

Roger Federer
“I was getting the upper hand from the baseline,” he said of the momentum shift. “I was making every return, first and second serve, so overall it was the perfect thing to happen. That's why I'm even more disappointed that it ended up finishing the way it did. For me, it was totally against the way the match was going.

“He found an extra gear in the end. It was tough. I enjoyed the match; it had a bit of everything. Controlled aggression was the key out there to try to play like that from the baseline.”
 
jottect said:
Ok, nice work, and since you like doing this analysis, can you make a similar one for Nadal? :-D
Click to expand...
Right but unlike Fed, Nadal is likely to gain a bundle of points during clay season and in the summer, he will have 0 point to defend. Not that I'm confident Nadal will ever recover #1 but if the choice is between Nadal and Federer, sorry, but Nadal is still a more reasonable option.
As I said, for Fed, just defending his W final and his USO semi is gonna be mighty tricky, never mind gaining on that.
 
veroniquem said:
Semi at RG + wins W? And what else? Final at USO?? None of that is even remotely realistic, sorry.
I can't believe how completely overboard people are going because Fed won a 500. They need to calm down.
Click to expand...

He has two titles and a masters 1000 final this year. From June on last year, his results were:

W F F W SF W W QF F

I'll repeat again, although unrealistic (the point you don't seem to be able to get around), it is POSSIBLE that Roger could reclaim #1. He isn't as far off as it seems, and with a few strong months it could be a reality. He might not get there, but to say that it is not remotely realistic for him to win a tournament he is the defending finalist (and 7 time champion) of and make a semifinal of an event that has been consistently solid for him is hyperbole at it's finest.

You can say that you believe Roger won't reach #1, and that's fine, but please don't deny facts about the POSSIBLE outcome in June.
 
veroniquem said:
Semi at RG + wins W? And what else? Final at USO?? None of that is even remotely realistic, sorry.
I can't believe how completely overboard people are going because Fed won a 500. They need to calm down.
Click to expand...

Well he did win Shanghai and made the finals of the WTF.

But no 1 is not realistic in my opinion,all you know he could play like he did against Seppi at the AO in one of the next three majors and crash out early.At this age he is going to have those bad days more often.
 
Federer is still reluctant to use net game and shorten up points against top players unless he is leading in a match.

His defensive game is so good that he still resorts to it if match is tight.
And his age shows toward the end of a match.

He needs to take some chances when the match is tight.

And he needs to do that before Nadal (and probably Murray) rises back to top form.
And guys like Raonic and Nishikori are also getting closer to the top...
 
Lets do an unlikely (but POSSIBLE) example:

Novak:

Miami: F
MC: SF
Madrid: SF
Rome: W
RG: SF (loss to nadal, wawrinka, etc)
SW19: SF (upset somewhere)

That puts him at 3760 points... It's not very likely, but possible.

Fed:

MC: SF
Madrid: W
Rome: QF
Istanbul: W
RG: SF
Halle: W
SW19: W

Total: 5010 points

5010-3760=1250>1130

That would be enough for Fed to be #1 after Wimbledon.

Something like this isn't likely to happen, but it's not impossible/ridiculous/crazy either.

Roger would be winning a small clay tourney, a grass 500, and have a QF SF W showing at the clay masters. And then, he would be winning ONE more set at Wimbledon than he did last season... This is unlikely, but NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

Novak would be making a final at Miami, and going SF SF W at the three clay masters. Maybe he has bad luck and faces rafa in the semis of RG, and loses. Then maybe he loses in the SF of SW19 (again, not unrealistic).

Novak would be going to at least the SF at EVERY event, yet Roger would pass him... Although it's unlikely, it's POSSIBLE.

Roger may skip a clay 1000 and render the point moot, or Novak may go on a tear and eliminate the possibility, but at the moment, you can't say what is above is "impossible and delirious".
 
Nitish said:
Well he did win Shanghai and made the finals of the WTF.

But no 1 is not realistic in my opinion,all you know he could play like he did against Seppi at the AO in one of the next three majors and crash out early.At this age he is going to have those bad days more often.
Click to expand...
Exactly. He can win events like Cincy, Halle but the slams are likely to do him in even if he goes deep in one of them.
By the way, it's good for him that Halle is now a 500.
 
The #1 bit went away with Istanbul scheduling.

Roger obviously is gonna use clay season to keep himself fit and will try to peak for Wimby, then if not - for USO.

The only way would ever consider running for #1 again would be in case of a long term injury of Djokovic.

Just the way he decided at one point to go for Davis Cup.

There's no other way and he doesn't really care about that.

#18 is his prime goal and it's getting harder every year, so everything else is irrelevant.
 
The moment Fed bombed out of the AO it was pretty much out of the window. Now that Djokovic has won IW as well there's even a lesser chance, considering he's probably going to do the IW-Miami again.

For Federer to have a chance he needs to sweep Halle, Wimbledon, Toronto and Cinci at the bare minimum, and also Djokovic losing early in some tournaments like last year. Until that happens, forget about it now.
 
veroniquem said:
Exactly. He can win events like Cincy, Halle but the slams are likely to do him in even if he goes deep in one of them.
By the way, it's good for him that Halle is now a 500.
Click to expand...

At this age Fed is prone to more freak lapses in form like against Seppi but I dont really see the difference in 2/3 or 3/5 against most of his opponents. The competetion at the moment is weak and the difference between 2-0 and 3-0 or 3-1 is one extra half an hour or an hour and after that you have a day rest not like the Masters. In Australia 14 he lost to Nadal, at RG he lost to an onfire Gulbis in a very tight affer 2-3 weeks after the new twins, at Wimbledon he lost to Djokovic in 5, Us Open to super Cilic and the last is Seppi. From the last 5 Slam tournaments in which Federer was in good shape he has one bad loss ... thats it. He is the number 2 player in the world + he has the winning formula against the only guy above him, Roger is a top 3 favorite for any Slam at least in his current shape.
 
FEDERERNADAL13 said:
He's not THAT far off.

For example, if he had won IW, he would be around 1400 points back of Djoker in the race... He would need to close the gap to 740 in order to take the #1 ranking... Unlikely but possible!
Click to expand...

if he had won IW? you can't defend your argument with the very match he just lost.
 
Did anyone say 'for Novak to retire' yet?

Djokovic, barring injury, will be #1 for a long time. Get used to it.

And given the looks of Murray and Nadal, Fed may be #2 for a while...
 
fed has already massively over achieved. plus he did it when murray had no confidence, jmpd out, and nadal injured again. no young guns have challenged. it was a perfect storm of luck. his draws could not have been better had he picked them himself. the lack of young guns has set things up nicely for novak to start racking GS titles up.
 
ultradr said:
Federer is still reluctant to use net game and shorten up points against top players unless he is leading in a match.

His defensive game is so good that he still resorts to it if match is tight.
And his age shows toward the end of a match.
Click to expand...
I totally agree with what you just wrote. Through most of his peak he won mostly at the baseline. So it's habit. If he gets on top in the first set charging, he starts to think he can win that way.

But if he tries to attack and gets shut down in the first set, he goes back to playing more defensively. And then he loses against the best.
 
At this age, who would expect Fed to become #1?
Let Novak have that.

What Fed wants to do is win Wimbledon.
That would help him a lot more than regaining #1.
 
latso said:
The #1 bit went away with Istanbul scheduling.

Roger obviously is gonna use clay season to keep himself fit and will try to peak for Wimby, then if not - for USO.

The only way would ever consider running for #1 again would be in case of a long term injury of Djokovic.

Just the way he decided at one point to go for Davis Cup.

There's no other way and he doesn't really care about that.

#18 is his prime goal and it's getting harder every year, so everything else is irrelevant.
Click to expand...

Uncle is uncle.
 
The difference of 1870 became 2870 by Miami.

Then 3830 by mc.

And 4800 by rg.

Then by Wimbledon it was more than 5700.

There was absolutely zero chance for Roger to compete with Novak.

Novak's pts by Wimbledon in the race was far more than Rogers pts by year end 2015. Novak lost just 3 matches by Wimbledon end.

Qatar vs karlovic
Dubai 500 vs Federer
RG final vs Wawrinka

This was half of the god's run. The second half was yet to commence. With USOpen, ATP finals, 2 masters and 2 masters finals along with being 500. Djokovic blew Federer out of the water.

At the year end the pts were.

1. Djokovic 16585
2. Murray
3. Federer 8265

Now. Between 2003 to 2010 Federer always got ranked above Djokovic at year end.

Between 2011 to 2021 Djokovic always got ranked above Federer at year end except 2017 where Djokovic was injured. Even in 2018 when Djokovic had close to 4000 pts difference in race vs Federer before Wimbledon, Federer finished 3rd and Djokovic 1st.


In 2015, after Djokovic won ao and iw, fed lost in r3 and final of IW respectively. He had very little hopes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

FEDERERNADAL13
2013 Race to #1
2
Replies
87
Views
14K
FEDERERNADAL13
FEDERERNADAL13
BGod
  • Poll Poll
The #1 ranking in 2022?
Replies
0
Views
441
BGod
BGod
Sudacafan
Clay season points to be defended - #1 perspectives
Replies
1
Views
801
Zhilady
Zhilady
FEDERERNADAL13
2014 Race to #1
2 3 4
Replies
151
Views
21K
pound cat
P
Sherlock
Federer might lose No 1 at Wimbledon
2
Replies
81
Views
9K
robin7
robin7
Back
Top