What went wrong at 40-15 for Federer?

MP #1:

Federer kicks a second serve out wide, which Djokovic manages to return straight at him. He then stabs a FH out wide. I think this was just a matter of luck with Djok’s return going so close to him. And even if the next shot went to plan and hit the line, it was anyone’s point if that ball dropped in as Djok was already covering that side. Can’t complain too much with that one.

MP #2:

The serve was pretty lousy. Did nerves play a part? It was a couple of feet inside the T and a very comfortable return for Djokovic on his FH side. Federer goes straight in for the kill on his second shot and sends a forehand up the line and approaches the net but again he goes nowhere near the line with the shot and leaves Djokovic in a comfortable position with options for the passing shot from the baseline.

I think the serve selection was wrong here. Djokovic was in front of the royal box where the sun was still only covering 2 thirds where the serve out wide would have put him into the shade and on his backhand. We’ll never know but there’s every chance that ball doesn’t come back if he goes out wide. Djokovic was standing in the sun and there’s every chance that getting him in and out of the sun would have upset his shot making there - trying to use every advantage you have.

And finally on that match point. Maybe I’m on my own with this one? With Djokovic’s passing shot to save the 2nd MP, does it look like Federer thinks it’s going wide? Could he have got to that? I really think there’s a chance if he reacts a half a second quicker that he cushions that in for a relatively easy winner. Maybe not even if he’s quicker, but if he just decides to go for it at all. Maybe I’m being too critical there.

What should Fed have done differently on either of these serves in your opinion?

Also something amusing I noticed:

The point and shot that saved the second match point for Djokovic? Almost the exact same point reversed (the last 2 shots anyway) that won the break for Federer in the previous game.
 

reaper

Legend
MP #1:

Federer kicks a second serve out wide, which Djokovic manages to return straight at him. He then stabs a FH out wide. I think this was just a matter of luck with Djok’s return going so close to him. And even if the next shot went to plan and hit the line, it was anyone’s point if that ball dropped in as Djok was already covering that side. Can’t complain too much with that one.

MP #2:

The serve was pretty lousy. Did nerves play a part? It was a couple of feet inside the T and a very comfortable return for Djokovic on his FH side. Federer goes straight in for the kill on his second shot and sends a forehand up the line and approaches the net but again he goes nowhere near the line with the shot and leaves Djokovic in a comfortable position with options for the passing shot from the baseline.

I think the serve selection was wrong here. Djokovic was in front of the royal box where the sun was still only covering 2 thirds where the serve out wide would have put him into the shade and on his backhand. We’ll never know but there’s every chance that ball doesn’t come back if he goes out wide. Djokovic was standing in the sun and there’s every chance that getting him in and out of the sun would have upset his shot making there - trying to use every advantage you have.

And finally on that match point. Maybe I’m on my own with this one? With Djokovic’s passing shot to save the 2nd MP, does it look like Federer thinks it’s going wide? Could he have got to that? I really think there’s a chance if he reacts a half a second quicker that he cushions that in for a relatively easy winner. Maybe not even if he’s quicker, but if he just decides to go for it at all. Maybe I’m being too critical there.

What should Fed have done differently on either of these serves in your opinion?

Also something amusing I noticed:

The point and shot that saved the second match point for Djokovic? Almost the exact same point reversed (the last 2 shots anyway) that won the break for Federer in the previous game.
If Federer's 1st serve at 40-15 doesn't catch the tape, he doesn't record one of the biggest chokes in tennis history. Djokovic was leaning the wrong way and nowhere near it.
 

kimguroo

Legend
40-15
Fed should have slice serve. Djokovic was expected but Fed had great slice serves for entire grass season.
Just believe himself and hit the best slice serve and hoping for Djokovic make a mistake or short ball.
I know if he hit “T” with ace, it can be awesome feeling but in match point, I will go with slice serve.
 

reaper

Legend
I do think the net charge at 40-30 showed where Federer was mentally. He just wanted Djokovic to make a cheap unforced error on a relatively simple forehand passing shot rather than to win the final point off his own good play. When he wasn't given it and the score got to deuce he pretty much fell apart in the final 2 points of that game.
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
MP #1:

Federer kicks a second serve out wide, which Djokovic manages to return straight at him. He then stabs a FH out wide. I think this was just a matter of luck with Djok’s return going so close to him. And even if the next shot went to plan and hit the line, it was anyone’s point if that ball dropped in as Djok was already covering that side. Can’t complain too much with that one.

MP #2:

The serve was pretty lousy. Did nerves play a part? It was a couple of feet inside the T and a very comfortable return for Djokovic on his FH side. Federer goes straight in for the kill on his second shot and sends a forehand up the line and approaches the net but again he goes nowhere near the line with the shot and leaves Djokovic in a comfortable position with options for the passing shot from the baseline.

I think the serve selection was wrong here. Djokovic was in front of the royal box where the sun was still only covering 2 thirds where the serve out wide would have put him into the shade and on his backhand. We’ll never know but there’s every chance that ball doesn’t come back if he goes out wide. Djokovic was standing in the sun and there’s every chance that getting him in and out of the sun would have upset his shot making there - trying to use every advantage you have.

And finally on that match point. Maybe I’m on my own with this one? With Djokovic’s passing shot to save the 2nd MP, does it look like Federer thinks it’s going wide? Could he have got to that? I really think there’s a chance if he reacts a half a second quicker that he cushions that in for a relatively easy winner. Maybe not even if he’s quicker, but if he just decides to go for it at all. Maybe I’m being too critical there.

What should Fed have done differently on either of these serves in your opinion?

Also something amusing I noticed:

The point and shot that saved the second match point for Djokovic? Almost the exact same point reversed (the last 2 shots anyway) that won the break for Federer in the previous game.
on the 2nd match point, roger should have rushed in faster,,, for whatever reason he was late getting in on the short crappy approach shot. so there was more room cross court to pass. You just know Novak wasn't going Lob there... just run in as fast as you can and Roger could have covered that cross court pass. maybe roger was hoping novak would miss it under pressure.
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
We all like Federer even more now. Even the GOAT of all time with the tennis racket can choke. He is human. I think he will be even more popular than ever...............





 

Newballs

Professional
MP #1:

Federer kicks a second serve out wide, which Djokovic manages to return straight at him. He then stabs a FH out wide. I think this was just a matter of luck with Djok’s return going so close to him. And even if the next shot went to plan and hit the line, it was anyone’s point if that ball dropped in as Djok was already covering that side. Can’t complain too much with that one.

MP #2:

The serve was pretty lousy. Did nerves play a part? It was a couple of feet inside the T and a very comfortable return for Djokovic on his FH side. Federer goes straight in for the kill on his second shot and sends a forehand up the line and approaches the net but again he goes nowhere near the line with the shot and leaves Djokovic in a comfortable position with options for the passing shot from the baseline.

I think the serve selection was wrong here. Djokovic was in front of the royal box where the sun was still only covering 2 thirds where the serve out wide would have put him into the shade and on his backhand. We’ll never know but there’s every chance that ball doesn’t come back if he goes out wide. Djokovic was standing in the sun and there’s every chance that getting him in and out of the sun would have upset his shot making there - trying to use every advantage you have.

And finally on that match point. Maybe I’m on my own with this one? With Djokovic’s passing shot to save the 2nd MP, does it look like Federer thinks it’s going wide? Could he have got to that? I really think there’s a chance if he reacts a half a second quicker that he cushions that in for a relatively easy winner. Maybe not even if he’s quicker, but if he just decides to go for it at all. Maybe I’m being too critical there.

What should Fed have done differently on either of these serves in your opinion?

Also something amusing I noticed:

The point and shot that saved the second match point for Djokovic? Almost the exact same point reversed (the last 2 shots anyway) that won the break for Federer in the previous game.
Unfortunately it doesn’t matter anymore...
The work week if fastly approaching, got reality to think about now.
Thanks to Rog for the inspiration and heartache. I hope for the Djokovic fans that his guy can offer the same to them in the twilight of his career.
 

ghostofMecir

Hall of Fame
He went for wide serve on first and missed.

His bread and butter best serve is deuce side T. He didn't use his best serve at the most important time.
His serve out wide on the deuce court that opens up the court for all righties has been his go to serve for many, many years now because he sees it as a % play AND because he just can’t get the velocity on the serve down the T to blow it by Djokovic. The serve down the T if hit well gives him and every other righty the most control over the point and should have been the go to serve here and at the 2011 USO, but he just didn’t trust it. He was averaging 122 mph on it and the fastest he hit was 126. He used to hit 125+ on almost ALL of those served in years past and when his velocity dropped, he went to the serve out wide.

I think he figures that:

A) Serve our wide on the duece: If I get it in play, I’m going to control the point with my FH or have a short ball to put away or maybe serve and volley.

B) Down the T on the deuce...I control the point completely with a good serve, but if it’s not good enough Djoko is going to hit that BH return to my BH (unless I can run around it but hugely risky play, especially on grass), and I don’t want that.
 
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tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
Why cant he take the time in between points to soak in , think and serve ?

He was in such a hurry after the 2 aces that the 4 points went in a blur. Even the time between first and second serves were hardly any.

This is where Novak differentiates himself. He thinks, bounces the ball.. gets doubts in the opponent, makes them impatient and then uses his defense.

And it is the tiebreak that killed Fed today more than the 2 MP's :

Total unforced errors in the 3 tiebreaks between Djokovic and Federer: Federer: 11 Djokovic: 0
 

wangs78

Hall of Fame
YEah I agree, he just rushes it too much sometimes. Just take a breath and relax. I still can't believe it. Next game after that on his serve? Ace first ball. It's all mental.
I agree. But Roger is a an attacker. I don't think I've ever seen an attacking style player have lengthy bounces before serving. These guys can't wait to hit the ball. Sampras sometimes didn't even bounce the ball before unloading.
 

wangs78

Hall of Fame
Why cant he take the time in between points to soak in , think and serve ?

He was in such a hurry after the 2 aces that the 4 points went in a blur. Even the time between first and second serves were hardly any.

This is where Novak differentiates himself. He thinks, bounces the ball.. gets doubts in the opponent, makes them impatient and then uses his defense.

And it is the tiebreak that killed Fed today more than the 2 MP's :

Total unforced errors in the 3 tiebreaks between Djokovic and Federer: Federer: 11 Djokovic: 0
Of all the near miss epics of Fed's career, this one kinda hurts the most. Or is tied with Wimby '08. Roger REALLY should have won this match. The problem is he hasn't beaten Djokovic in a Slam final for too long and all of his losses were near misses. When you keep finding yourself in these moments when the match is on the line and one player has 3 Slam final losses and 2 huge USO SF losses when he had two match points in both and the other player is in the exact opposite position knowing he won all of those contests, it's very clear which player is going to play more relaxed. Fed was fighting not just a great great player, but the ghosts of past losses, especially when he had those championship points.

Doesn't make me feel any better, because I, like every other Fed fan, when it was 40-15 with championship points, probably thought "This is it. Roger is going to prove once and for all he is the GOAT. He has conquered Rafa and now he will conquer the hated Nole at age near-38. Win #21 and #9 at Wimby and any snide remark from a Rafa or Nole supporter in the future will bounce off us like a brand new tennis ball."

And then it didn't happen. It's 6+ hours later and I still have an empty feeling in me. Like a day that started with sunshine and plans for a wonderful picnic with the family (or hot gf) got rained out and the family (or hot gf) got kidnapped as well and I'll never see them again.
 
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ghostofMecir

Hall of Fame
I agree. But Roger is a an attacker. I don't think I've ever seen an attacking style player have lengthy bounces before serving. These guys can't wait to hit the ball. Sampras sometimes didn't even bounce the ball before unloading.
Especially so after hitting two aces in that 8-7 game. He was trying to ride the flow there AND try to avoid thinking about past match point opportunities vs. Djokovic.
 

Kuclas

New User
He clearly was nervous. He shank the forehand at 40-15. Playing not to lose. Same thing at 40-30. Weak approach. Hope Novak makes a mistake.

But it is what it is. He had two aces to make it 40-15. He went for it on his first serve at 40-15. It didn’t go in. Shades of 2011 us open semis. We all know it. At least he rebounded and didn’t lose 10-8

He also had chances at 11-11 two break points.

It’s not like Fed didn’t have another shot to win this.

The tie break. I kinda of had a feeling Novak would win before it even started. Novak seem to concentrate more on tie breakers. And that won him. The match.
 

kimguroo

Legend
Anything can happen. Even if fed hit slice serve and Djokovic returned then ND won the point for 40-15, we might say Fed should hit “T” since Djokovic was expected and already positioned to return slice serve.....
Unfortunately, It’s pointless argue.......

Djokovic did not have first serves in the beginning especially first set. Fed had a game plan and worked well but he could not win the first set tie break.

Also during the tie break, Djokovic always had advantages since Federer can not rely on his backhands.

It’s done so move on hahahaha.
 
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Pantera

Banned
Federer serve profile was spot on. His best serve is the slice and Djokovic FH return is suspect under pressure.

What did for Federer was the plus one shot. First MP he choked as his feet didnt move so was late on the shot. 2nd MP he was negative. Weak FH in Djokovic wheelhouse on FH side...he clearly hoped he would miss. Again...a choke.

What he could have done on 2nd MP was hit a slice BH to djokovic BH with no pace. Djokovic BH struggled with the low ball and there was a good chance he would have either put it in the net or over cooked it or dropped it short for federer to clock a FH winner.

Bottom line is Federer choked. Djokovic choked a few times which showed how much was on that match legacy wise.

They clearly dislike each other as well and that was part of the problem. The fear of losing was more than winning.
 

Duncan Donuts

Professional
Nothing he could have done on the first MP. That return from Djokovic was too good.

Serve and volley on the 2nd match point could have been a smart move. End it Sampras style.
 

Mark-Touch

Hall of Fame
You are asking the million dollar question.
A tough one, but I've got the answer!

I am shocked that Fed hasn't learned a most BASIC lesson yet in tennis.
The "Law of Averages".

It's simple. It goes like this. If you have a great serve like Fed has, and you are serving 65%+ (which he was),
THIS is what you do when you get to 40-15, Match Point....


You serve 1, 2, 3, or 4 'FIRST SERVES' if necessary!!!
You forget about second serves!!!


If your first first serve isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got three left! (first serve)
If your next 'first serve' isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got two left! (second serve)
If your next first serve isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got one left! (first serve)
If your next 'first serve' isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you're still at deuce !!! (second serve)

In other words you've got four (4) shots to put the match away, easily.


So what does Fed do?


Serving at 2-2, 8-7

40-15. 1st serve, hits nets, falls to Fed's side. OK, no sweat! You've still got three (3) more 'first serve' chances!

2nd serve, he throws in a weak serve to Djoker's F.H. Huge, unforgivable mistake.
Djokers pushes Fed back to the baseline easily and Fed hits ball out on the side.

The weak serve was totally inexcusable. You go for a BIG second serve!
This is match point at Wimbledon for crying out loud!

40-30 Fed gets 1st serve in, but not good placement. Djoker can only push ball to mid-court, Fed steps inside baseline, hits to deuce side, comes to net on a wing and a prayer (not a strong/good approach shot), BUT stays on deuce side of court instead of moving to center! Djoker sees a wide open court and hits to open side for winner!

If you are going to move into net, it is totally inexcusable to stay to one side (leaving a gaping opening) instead of coming to the center.
Total brain fart move by Fed.

40-40 ... the rest is history.
 

Sudacafan

Talk Tennis Guru
You are asking the million dollar question.
A tough one, but I've got the answer!

I am shocked that Fed hasn't learned a most BASIC lesson yet in tennis.
The "Law of Averages".

It's simple. It goes like this. If you have a great serve like Fed has, and you are serving 65%+ (which he was),
THIS is what you do when you get to 40-15, Match Point....


You serve 1, 2, 3, or 4 'FIRST SERVES' if necessary!!!
You forget about second serves!!!


If your first first serve isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got three left! (first serve)
If your next 'first serve' isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got two left! (second serve)
If your next first serve isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got one left! (first serve)
If your next 'first serve' isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you're still at deuce !!! (second serve)

In other words you've got four (4) shots to put the match away, easily.


So what does Fed do?


Serving at 2-2, 8-7

40-15. 1st serve, hits nets, falls to Fed's side. OK, no sweat! You've still got three (3) more 'first serve' chances!

2nd serve, he throws in a weak serve to Djoker's F.H. Huge, unforgivable mistake.
Djokers pushes Fed back to the baseline easily and Fed hits ball out on the side.

The weak serve was totally inexcusable. You go for a BIG second serve!
This is match point at Wimbledon for crying out loud!


40-30 Fed gets 1st serve in, but not good placement. Djoker can only push ball to mid-court, Fed steps inside baseline, hits to deuce side, comes to net on a wing and a prayer (not a strong/good approach shot), BUT stays on deuce side of court instead of moving to center! Djoker sees a wide open court and hits to open side for winner!

If you are going to move into net, it is totally inexcusable to stay to one side (leaving a gaping opening) instead of coming to the center.
Total brain fart move by Fed.

40-40 ... the rest is history.
Please make sure that Federer receives your recommendations above before he meets Djokovic for the fourth time again, in a Grand Slam tournament having match points serving at 40-15.
 
I am a Fed fan, but what about those rasping backhands delivered by Djoker when it really mattered. Fed should have wrapped this up in 4 if he had not played those awful forehands out wide in the 1st set. Let’s give credit where it’s due, this one goes into the “ Djoker didn’t choke and Fed couldn’t convert “. So Djoker should be proud of his effort and Fed shouldn’t be. It’s not a heartbreaking loss. You can gauge that by the rather nonchalant on court interview by Fed. Those were his immediate, genuine emotions.
 

Sudacafan

Talk Tennis Guru
I am a Fed fan, but what about those rasping backhands delivered by Djoker when it really mattered. Fed should have wrapped this up in 4 if he had not played those awful forehands out wide in the 1st set. Let’s give credit where it’s due, this one goes into the “ Djoker didn’t choke and Fed couldn’t convert “. So Djoker should be proud of his effort and Fed shouldn’t be. It’s not a heartbreaking loss. You can gauge that by the rather nonchalant on court interview by Fed. Those were his immediate, genuine emotions.
Nice try. Thanks.
 

Mark-Touch

Hall of Fame
Flashbacks
I'll never forget those two M.P.'s. They are permanently etched in my memory.
The first point saved by Djoker was just insane!
OK so he was leaning/guessing it would be wide outside.
But it was coming in fast. To simply get your racket on it would have been an accomplishment.
But no, he hits it for an outright winner!

OK relax Fed. You see Djoker is trying to milk the crowd for all it's worth.
Take your time. Collect your thoughts. Don't rush.

His next first serve is very decent! It's a body serve that Djoker pops up short into center court.
Easy peasy put away.
Fed is still pumped with adrenaline from the previous point and instead of taking his time and putting the ball practically ANYWHERE
he wants, he goes for TOO MUCH, the ball clips the net and ricochets out of court. :(

His brain went to mush after that. A weakness of Fed's.
 

HuusHould

Professional
You are asking the million dollar question.
A tough one, but I've got the answer!

I am shocked that Fed hasn't learned a most BASIC lesson yet in tennis.
The "Law of Averages".

It's simple. It goes like this. If you have a great serve like Fed has, and you are serving 65%+ (which he was),
THIS is what you do when you get to 40-15, Match Point....


You serve 1, 2, 3, or 4 'FIRST SERVES' if necessary!!!
You forget about second serves!!!


If your first first serve isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got three left! (first serve)
If your next 'first serve' isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got two left! (second serve)
If your next first serve isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you've got one left! (first serve)
If your next 'first serve' isn't an ace or puts Djoker in trouble, you're still at deuce !!! (second serve)

In other words you've got four (4) shots to put the match away, easily.


So what does Fed do?


Serving at 2-2, 8-7

40-15. 1st serve, hits nets, falls to Fed's side. OK, no sweat! You've still got three (3) more 'first serve' chances!

2nd serve, he throws in a weak serve to Djoker's F.H. Huge, unforgivable mistake.
Djokers pushes Fed back to the baseline easily and Fed hits ball out on the side.

The weak serve was totally inexcusable. You go for a BIG second serve!
This is match point at Wimbledon for crying out loud!

40-30 Fed gets 1st serve in, but not good placement. Djoker can only push ball to mid-court, Fed steps inside baseline, hits to deuce side, comes to net on a wing and a prayer (not a strong/good approach shot), BUT stays on deuce side of court instead of moving to center! Djoker sees a wide open court and hits to open side for winner!

If you are going to move into net, it is totally inexcusable to stay to one side (leaving a gaping opening) instead of coming to the center.
Total brain fart move by Fed.

40-40 ... the rest is history.
He needs to discuss percentages with Nick Kyrgios!
 

BetaServe

Professional
I'll never forget those two M.P.'s. They are permanently etched in my memory.
The first point saved by Djoker was just insane!
OK so he was leaning/guessing it would be wide outside.
But it was coming in fast. To simply get your racket on it would have been an accomplishment.
But no, he hits it for an outright winner!

OK relax Fed. You see Djoker is trying to milk the crowd for all it's worth.
Take your time. Collect your thoughts. Don't rush.

His next first serve is very decent! It's a body serve that Djoker pops up short into center court.
Easy peasy put away.
Fed is still pumped with adrenaline from the previous point and instead of taking his time and putting the ball practically ANYWHERE
he wants, he goes for TOO MUCH, the ball clips the net and ricochets out of court. :(

His brain went to mush after that. A weakness of Fed's.
And it happened again today... :'(
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Fed should take 4-5 more seconds before serve in this kind of situations. It happened in Uso11 as well. He plays too fast. Doesn't even think what to do. Things go fast - from two Mps to suddenly losing service game within one or two minutes. Take your time instead, focus, think, settle down and execute - don't rush yourself.
 

Sudacafan

Talk Tennis Guru
I'll never forget those two M.P.'s. They are permanently etched in my memory.
The first point saved by Djoker was just insane!
OK so he was leaning/guessing it would be wide outside.
But it was coming in fast. To simply get your racket on it would have been an accomplishment.
But no, he hits it for an outright winner!

OK relax Fed. You see Djoker is trying to milk the crowd for all it's worth.
Take your time. Collect your thoughts. Don't rush.

His next first serve is very decent! It's a body serve that Djoker pops up short into center court.
Easy peasy put away.
Fed is still pumped with adrenaline from the previous point and instead of taking his time and putting the ball practically ANYWHERE
he wants, he goes for TOO MUCH, the ball clips the net and ricochets out of court. :(

His brain went to mush after that. A weakness of Fed's.
Flashback, the specific crucial action was Nole making the crowd cheer for him after that insane return at MP down at 40-15.
Had Nole not milked the crowd for that, history may have been different. You could see Fed’s expression of a mix of anger and horror serving the next point at 40-30.
Its effects still linger in Fed’s mind today.
 

Sudacafan

Talk Tennis Guru
Fed should take 4-5 more seconds before serve in this kind of situations. It happened in Uso11 as well. He plays too fast. Doesn't even think what to do. Things go fast - from two Mps to suddenly losing service game within one or two minutes. Take your time instead, focus, think, settle down and execute - don't rush yourself.
That’s why Nole and Rafa are better competitors than Roger, they take ALL the time they need.
 

Sudacafan

Talk Tennis Guru
I'll never forget those two M.P.'s. They are permanently etched in my memory.
The first point saved by Djoker was just insane!
OK so he was leaning/guessing it would be wide outside.
But it was coming in fast. To simply get your racket on it would have been an accomplishment.
But no, he hits it for an outright winner!

OK relax Fed. You see Djoker is trying to milk the crowd for all it's worth.
Take your time. Collect your thoughts. Don't rush.

His next first serve is very decent! It's a body serve that Djoker pops up short into center court.
Easy peasy put away.
Fed is still pumped with adrenaline from the previous point and instead of taking his time and putting the ball practically ANYWHERE
he wants, he goes for TOO MUCH, the ball clips the net and ricochets out of court. :(

His brain went to mush after that. A weakness of Fed's.
I just recalled prior Fed’s match. He needed 5 MPs to take Rafa down. Fed also did some choking there, but Rafa let him get away with it.
 
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