What went wrong at 40-15 for Federer?

He regulary has been doing the suicide type offensive when nerves take over and he doesn't know what he is doing and why.
Basically the same play that won CP in 2012. No one questioned it then, but they'll rationalise all day why it was a terrible ploy this time because maybe it wasn't struck quite as well and/or the result was different. Hindsight rearing its ugly head again.
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
I suggest you watch and re-watch that point several times.
Fed was pushed back and falling away when he hit the ball.
He wasn't aiming for anything specifically. He was hoping the ball would simply land in the court!
He wasn't executing any special shot!

His mistake was his serve that allowed Djoker to push him back!
He should have fired a HUGE second serve!
Fed was tight. I am certain that 2011 was in his head.
If he had Novak’s ability to “live in the moment” he would have servitude out properly.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
the pattern is djokovic's return on the deuce side, and he got burned on mps before.

have a look at their match history and the results in deciding sets. its looks seriously ugly for federer against novak especially in recent history.

i dont think djokovic is going to able to get a solid return off a 120-125 serve down the T. he isn't going to guess on that big a point either.
this is the percentage play if he's going for the quick kill.
The FO'11 semi TB ended with an ace down the T. Maybe a lot has happened since then and Fed has blown more matches holding MPs and serving for the match after that than before.

Why did he make the weird decisions he did ? Plain and simple. Nerves. The occasion got to him. What is worrying is, as you guys have already stated, it is bound to happen again because he is doing nothing to face the elephant in the room and see how he can improve and hold his nerves and stay calm in those moments . This despite progressively going from blowing MPs and losing from two sets up to blowing championship points (IW '18) , now culminating with blowing Wimby championship points.

Get yourself someone like a Pepe or a meditation/mindfulness coach, take initiative and do something about it FFS. At this age, the only department where you can genuinely improve is your mental game to make up for the speed and reflexes that you will keep losing. After losing so many big matches over the years, it is unbelievable he and his team have not looked into this aspect.
 
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Well, I think AO 17 and subsequent matches against Nadal, including the WB semi, speaks loads about holding his nerves and staying calm. Against Djokovic, he did not quite pull it of. But the aptly nicknamed Joker, is as formidable a psychological challenge as Nadal, albeit a slightly different one.
Federer did not quite get the transition in place. Perhaps he was a bit mentally flat (even though it shouldn't be so) after the semi. Perhaps a bit wrong tactics. Federer post match said he thought he had a "good mix" (of slice, attack, etc). But he seemed to be holding back in periods on the topspin shots. and quite many of his errors were actually on the less comitted shots. So perhaps the balance was not perfect, and there was a bit too much of holding back on topspin shots.
(I realise this is more about the match as a whole, than the two match points).
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Well, I think AO 17 and subsequent matches against Nadal, including the WB semi, speaks loads about holding his nerves and staying calm. Against Djokovic, he did not quite pull it of. But the aptly nicknamed Joker, is as formidable a psychological challenge as Nadal, albeit a slightly different one.
Federer did not quite get the transition in place. Perhaps he was a bit mentally flat (even though it shouldn't be so) after the semi. Perhaps a bit wrong tactics. Federer post match said he thought he had a "good mix" (of slice, attack, etc). But he seemed to be holding back in periods on the topspin shots. and quite many of his errors were actually on the less comitted shots. So perhaps the balance was not perfect, and there was a bit too much of holding back on topspin shots.
(I realise this is more about the match as a whole, than the two match points).
I think the consensus is that it was not about how he played the match overall but how he consistently came up short on the big points/big moments which clearly sounds like nerves.

Being better on all stats except UEs and still losing 3TBs and those 2 CPs (I would count the next two points after getting to deuce on his serve, too) are testimony to that.
 
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Fed`s level was similar in the semi vs Nadal. For 2 weeks so many matches were massively lopsided and it was
pointed out to me this could have been attributed to the NEW unwanted and untested on humans over a long term
5g network could easily be a reason so many had issues apart from the slow courts.
Thanks RR, I didn't know that they had already implemented 5G at Wimbledon!
Say what?
 
I think the consensus was that it was not about how he played the match overall but how he consistently came up short on the big points/big moments.

Being better on all stats except UEs and still losing 3TBs and those 2 CPs (I would count the next two points after getting to deuce on his serve, too) are testimony to that.
But still, the match could have been won in at different way. And these observations affected other key moments and games also. Perhaps also the slight holding back on serve. I have no problem with being a bit off consensus. To me, the most frustrating thing about the match was not two missed mp's, but more a handfull or two vague backhands sailing out/in the net, etc. Perhaps I am influenced by the danish commentator Michael Tauson, who was very focused on when Federer stepped of the gas and not. And he did more so than he did in the two last sets against Nadal. Tauson felt that Federer did not trust his shots quite as much as in big parts of the Nadal match.
The stats are quite influenced by set 2, where Djokovic sort of checked out. Which is part of why he is hard to play, and a psychological challenge. You know what Nadal is going to do, but not quite Djokovic.
 
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WarrenMP

Professional
I see it this way. Federer should have won in straight sets with the way he played. It was just Djokovic being very clutch when needed. Even when Fed lost 2 CP, he still had the rest of the points on his racquet in his serve.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
I see it this way. Federer should have won in straight sets with the way he played. It was just Djokovic being very clutch when needed. Even when Fed lost 2 CP, he still had the rest of the points on his racquet in his serve.
Yep, just said so in a post above. I cannot clearly remember how he lost the next two points after getting to deuce. Anyone remembers ?
@Mark-Touch your thoughts on those 2 points ?
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Novak is the LOAT - Luckiest Player of All Time
Sorry, no. That has to be Nadal (his draws and the way they fall apart consistently, how his opponents schedules get screwed before facing him like at the FO etc).

Djoko , if anything has been on the wrong side of luck along with Federer when it comes to draws and schedules. He has made his own luck to win so much despite all that.
 

Rabe87

Professional
What happened when Fed had 2 MP's?

Novak was over the other side of the net, that's what happened.

What a stupid thread this is seriously.
 

Rabe87

Professional
What a relief you are so bright.
please wow me with your salty excuses, was it the headsize of his frame? The tension of his hybrid strings? The angle of the sun? Nole has saved a total of 6 championship points across 3 majors against Federdone, hilarity at its finest.

The king is dead, Nole is the new God.
 

racquetreligion

Hall of Fame
Say what?
dont you know yet? the big sell for netflix digital heroin junkies needing to download
movies in under 1 second because they cant wait halve a minute these days.
The IOT of things, self driving cars, automate everything no need for humans to do
anything anymore except stay online all the time to rake in zillions for telcos.
If you notice not one of the celebs are addicted or seeing holding digital heroin units.
 
dont you know yet? the big sell for netflix digital heroin junkies needing to download
movies in under 1 second because they cant wait halve a minute these days.
The IOT of things, self driving cars, automate everything no need for humans to do
anything anymore except stay online all the time to rake in zillions for telcos.
If you notice not one of the celebs are addicted or seeing holding digital heroin units.
Well you still need to swing the racket.
 

HuusHould

Professional
Like most have already said, Roger was in a great service groove. He just needed one more big serve but for some reason chose a safer serve at 40-30 right into Novak's FH (instead of aiming for the T). That and the weak follow-up into the net showed that he wasn't thinking clearly.
In an earlier game in the 5th, I think it may have been game point, Fed served to Noles fh to the deuce court and he blocked it about a metre long, he was likely hoping for a similar result, maybe he thought another T serve might be one too many.
 

HuusHould

Professional
Really felt sorry for Fed`s parents, they were eloquent for 5 hours compared to Noles maternal Dynamic Duo
and most of his players box. Maybe 5g had a more significant effect on their behavior as they are less disciplined
when using mainly their R-Complex (eg. lower brain) section of their scones were they can only manage barbaric gestures.

However in fairness Mirka could easily blend into Novaks players box with ease or even Cabal/Farah`s Colombian Mafia Gang
they were quite a site in throughout the event often looking like the cast from Mad Max 3 Beyond Thunderdome.
I couldnt understand Mirka with her head in her hands looking worried at 40-15 8-7, she mustve had a preminition!?
 

jklos

Professional
Nole hit a winning crosscourt across Federer after driving it hard on an approach shot in Nole`s FH during match point.
Nole said himself he was way back behind the baseline most of the match and Fed could not see that just hitting it
short drew many errors from Nadal and Djokovic when approaching the net due to the low bounces.

If Fed just hit it firm but short approach shots to the FH during those match points he would have easier volleys to put away
or at least draw Nole forward with incredible pressure to hit a winner or a lob.
Could of hit a dropper on MP #2.
 

BringBackWood

Professional
It felt very surreal when Fed broke at 7-7. I agree with the guy saying go for a big 2nd serve - surprise Novak.

Fed will be remebered as the king of chokes, * It pains me to say that. No match has come close to the hollow feeling I had after this match. Damages his legacy so much, when he was so close to enhancing it 10 times over. Worst loss of his career by miles.
 

BrooklynNY

Hall of Fame
I do think the net charge at 40-30 showed where Federer was mentally. He just wanted Djokovic to make a cheap unforced error on a relatively simple forehand passing shot rather than to win the final point off his own good play. When he wasn't given it and the score got to deuce he pretty much fell apart in the final 2 points of that game.
Best and most accurate response
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Sorry, no. That has to be Nadal (his draws and the way they fall apart consistently, how his opponents schedules get screwed before facing him like at the FO etc).

Djoko , if anything has been on the wrong side of luck along with Federer when it comes to draws and schedules. He has made his own luck to win so much despite all that.
stop trolling! Rafa got toughest draw ever in this Wimbledon. Kyrgios - Tsonga - Federer - Djokovic on grass. Yet he is lucky?
 

duaneeo

Legend
Federer's slamidous illness was never really cured. It was only cured at the Australian Open. Clearly he still suffers from it at Wimbledon, and it all started with the shock loss to Stakhovsky in 2013. Since then, Roger has lost the ability to win Wimbledon. The 2016 loss to Raonic after going up 2-1 and the 2018 loss to Anderson after winning the first two sets show that it's not just about facing Nole.

It now makes all the sense in the world why Cilic was crying during the 2017 final. He sensed that Federer wasn't mentally ready to win the title, and he was emotionally devastated that the blister on his foot was preventing him from taking advantage of the situation.
 

jklos

Professional
Best and most accurate response
True, but I think he assumed he would of hit closer to his spot (closer to line). He likely already committed to coming in on the short return but he likely thought his approach would be closer towards the line. At least a couple more feet. Unfortunately it stayed fairly central. It was short and a bit loopy too but that wouldn't have mattered if it hit closer to the line as it was fairly well struck. It just happened to land in a spot where Djokovic didn't have move much at all. IMO an inside out would have been the better choice but once you commit you have to stick with it. So many variables on that one point could of changed the outcome but it is what it is. I'm sure that point will give him a few nightmares but I think he'll recover.
 

powerangle

Legend
In an earlier game in the 5th, I think it may have been game point, Fed served to Noles fh to the deuce court and he blocked it about a metre long, he was likely hoping for a similar result, maybe he thought another T serve might be one too many.
I was referring to the ad side when Roger was serving at 40-30. Roger could have done a wide serve or down the T, but instead was more central (and not even a body serve) right to Novak's FH and Novak blocked it back.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
I think the consensus is that it was not about how he played the match overall but how he consistently came up short on the big points/big moments which clearly sounds like nerves.

Being better on all stats except UEs and still losing 3TBs and those 2 CPs (I would count the next two points after getting to deuce on his serve, too) are testimony to that.
I dont believe you should attribute all of it to nerves.

Fed is clearly limited by his movement. He is far less consistent compared to his peak. Djokovic is extremely good in defense.

Put this all together. Fed's best chance is to land in unreturnable serves. Anything less than that, he starts the point neutral or at a disadvantage and the more consistent player wins.

Even though he loses MP to Donskoy and Thiem, most of the big ones are to Djokovic who is rock solid in defense.

Doesn't Fed know he has to be clutch. Like any other player he has nerves. But you also need the ground game to back it up. Saying 'I am clutch and have no nerves' does not mean anything if you cannot work the point.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
I was referring to the ad side when Roger was serving at 40-30. Roger could have done a wide serve or down the T, but instead was more central (and not even a body serve) right to Novak's FH and Novak blocked it back.
he got the placement wrong. He should have hit the FH more fine and offensive the next shot.
 

jklos

Professional
he got the placement wrong. He should have hit the FH more fine and offensive the next shot.
Exactly. Just as in the 2017 Aus Open final he hit the approach almost too fine and caught the line. Shanked it a bit too, but because of that it pulled it even more wide and unplayable. He hit it so much cleaner on Sunday but just not wide enough.
 

Mark-Touch

Hall of Fame
OK, so now the reason he lost the point is because he didn't hit a 120mph second serve. The classic reason as to why all MPs have been lost in the past. You guys are too much; I'm out.
Not the classic reason why all MPs have been lost in the past.

We are talking about Fed here.
Fed is a special player in case you hadn't noticed.
Fed has a great reliable serve.

Fed was serving 65% in the final.
Fed had just hit two aces in succession before arriving at 40-15.
His serve was in a groove.
That meant that he had an excellent chance to serve one more ace in four tries (if necessary).
End of story.
 

jklos

Professional
I dont believe you should attribute all of it to nerves.

Fed is clearly limited by his movement. He is far less consistent compared to his peak. Djokovic is extremely good in defense.

Put this all together. Fed's best chance is to land in unreturnable serves. Anything less than that, he starts the point neutral or at a disadvantage and the more consistent player wins.

Even though he loses MP to Donskoy and Thiem, most of the big ones are to Djokovic who is rock solid in defense.

Doesn't Fed know he has to be clutch. Like any other player he has nerves. But you also need the ground game to back it up. Saying 'I am clutch and have no nerves' does not mean anything if you cannot work the point.
You don't think Fed has the ground game to back it up? He went 5 hours toe to toe with one of the best baseliners in the game and was the better player for the majority of the match. He literally missed the trophy by two feet.
 

Mark-Touch

Hall of Fame
Why did he make the weird decisions he did ? Plain and simple. Nerves. The occasion got to him. What is worrying is, as you guys have already stated, it is bound to happen again because he is doing nothing to face the elephant in the room and see how he can improve and hold his nerves and stay calm in those moments . This despite progressively going from blowing MPs and losing from two sets up to blowing championship points (IW '18) , now culminating with blowing Wimby championship points.

Get yourself someone like a Pepe or a meditation/mindfulness coach, take initiative and do something about it FFS. At this age, the only department where you can genuinely improve is your mental game to make up for the speed and reflexes that you will keep losing. After losing so many big matches over the years, it is unbelievable he and his team have not looked into this aspect.
BINGO!
Yes it was nerves to a large extent. His rushing the net on a 'wing and a prayer shot' etc.

But I believe he honestly NEVER considered serving four aces in a row at 40-15, either any time before the match or during it.
 

urban

Legend
Its all between the ears. The situation reminds me of Tilden. Between 1920 and 1926/27 he was virtually invincible, and if he had had a four majors schedule like today, he would have won ca. 25 majors (and had put all this majors goat talk to rest). Then, when he was over 35, came Crocodile Lacoste and Magician Cochet, and after Tilden once lost his mantle to those Frenchmen, and even if he beat all other contenders handily, including Borotra, he could not overcome those two anymore in his amateur career. In the most famous breakdown in all tennis history, he lead Cochet 2-0, and 5-1 in a semi at Wim 1927, and surely he lost it. He had 2 mps in the 5th against Lacoste in the French final 1927, and certainly he lost it (some say on a dubious line call by Cochet himself). The musketeers knew, they had taken his mantle, and worse for him, he knew it as well. Paradoxically, later since 1933/34, when he was over 40, he figured out his nemesis Cochet and beat him always at the pros. Lacoste had retired before due to illness. Maybe Djoker is the new Crocodile Lacoste, he is wearing the clothes anyway.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Fed was serving 65% in the final.
Fed had just hit two aces in succession before arriving at 40-15.
His serve was in a groove.
That meant that he had an excellent chance to serve one more ace in four tries (if necessary).
End of story.
Just cannot argue against that. You can tell he did not think of it that way at all.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
I'm still having a hard time finding the 'Dislike' button. :(
Please ignore the troll, don't waste your time responding to it.
I asked about the two points after getting to deuce from 40-15 , any thoughts on them ? (I cannot recall how he lost them).
 

Mark-Touch

Hall of Fame
I dont believe you should attribute all of it to nerves.

Fed is clearly limited by his movement. He is far less consistent compared to his peak. Djokovic is extremely good in defense.

Put this all together. Fed's best chance is to land in unreturnable serves. Anything less than that, he starts the point neutral or at a disadvantage and the more consistent player wins.
 
Not the classic reason why all MPs have been lost in the past.

We are talking about Fed here.
Fed is a special player in case you hadn't noticed.
Fed has a great reliable serve.

Fed was serving 65% in the final.
Fed had just hit two aces in succession before arriving at 40-15.
His serve was in a groove.
That meant that he had an excellent chance to serve one more ace in four tries (if necessary).
End of story.
It was in a groove... Until someone in the crowd yelled before his 40-15 serve. Also what was the serves per ace for the match? About 8 or something? So going by that he had a 1 in 4 chance across two attempts. Yeah, unprecedented odds.

What a terrible and misinformed story. Please don't write another one.
 

Mark-Touch

Hall of Fame
...
I asked about the two points after getting to deuce from 40-15 , any thoughts on them ? (I cannot recall how he lost them).
40-40
1st serve sliced wide, bounces out.
2nd serve rolled in to the center of box.
Djoker hits good deep shot to Fed's BH side.
Fed hits topspin BH crosscourt, lands inside center of service box
Djoker hits BH crosscourt deep.

Fed SHANKS topspin BH crosscourt, lands inside service box near center line.
Djoker is drooling now! He was cheating to his FH and now has plenty of time for his next shot, moving over the baseline.
He rips a FH down the line into the corner.
Fed stretches, squash shot, into net.


Ad Djoker
1st serve a clone of his MP2 serve, exact same placement!
Djoker pushes it back, a clone of his MP2 return, but this time pushes it to Fed's right side.
Ball lands a couple feet beyond service line, center of box.

Fed is licking his chops. Great preparation.
But hits a very conservative loopy FH cross court and immediately retreats behind baseline.
Djoker rips a cross court FH to corner.
Fed hits FH into net !!! Broken.

IOW, Fed was now playing tight and nervous.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
It was in a groove... Until someone in the crowd yelled before his 40-15 serve. Also what was the serves per ace for the match? About 8 or something? So going by that he had a 1 in 4 chance across two attempts. Yeah, unprecedented odds.

What a terrible and misinformed story. Please don't write another one.
It didn't even have to be an ace. A first serve would still give you better chances of winning the point. His first serve % was 63% and he won 79% points on first serve.
 

zvelf

Hall of Fame
We are talking about 5th set at 12-12. Both are mentally exhausted. Fed at 40-15. Trophy is almost guaranteed. His mind starts to waver. The key thing is Djokovic probably also thought this is it. He RELAXED. He had nothing to lose. It just went his way. If Fed crumbled, that would be after deuce.

And this is not the first time he's done it to Fed. Remember USOpen? 40-15 match point. That's twice against the same player.

Actually, Djokovic has come back from 2 match points down against Federer 3 times. He did it in the U.S. Open semis in both 2010 and 2011.
 

zvelf

Hall of Fame
We should stop whining and see the bright side of this loss now.
For instance, nobody will now remember the match Federer lost to Kevin Anderson in this same tournament last year after squandering a match point, leading 2-0 in sets.
:) On the other hand, this will go down in history as one of the most memorable Wimbledon finals ever.
 

Sudacafan

Talk Tennis Guru
:) On the other hand, this will go down in history as one of the most memorable Wimbledon finals ever.
Well, but that I don’t like it much. You are not a Fedfan, are you? We should forget that all this happened.
Fed in the losing side of the two most memorable Wimbledon finals of the century against each of his two GOAT competitors, at his “home”.
That sucks.
 

a10best

Hall of Fame
Sorry, no. That has to be Nadal (his draws and the way they fall apart consistently, how his opponents schedules get screwed before facing him like at the FO etc).

Djoko , if anything has been on the wrong side of luck along with Federer when it comes to draws and schedules. He has made his own luck to win so much despite all that.
Are you really going to say you don't remember any walkover or retirements in Djokovic's draws? Remember you are under oath. ;)
 

a10best

Hall of Fame
Well, but that I don’t like it much. You are not a Fedfan, are you? We should forget that all this happened.
Fed in the losing side of the two most memorable Wimbledon finals of the century against each of his two GOAT competitors, at his “home”.
That sucks.
well, this made me feel far more depressed than an election. so close. he outplayed his opponent in match stats and was in position to win.
 
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