What winning percentage is expected at level before playing up?

T

ThinkPad

Rookie
I'm a 3.5S, and I've won 8 out of 9 matches at the 3.5 level. I'm rather bored at my current level and would like to play up immediately. But, year-end ratings aren't released until December.

What winning percentage is generally expected at level for a player to reasonably request to join a team at the next higher level?
 
ThinkPad said:
I'm a 3.5S, and I've won 8 out of 9 matches at the 3.5 level. I'm rather bored at my current level and would like to play up immediately. But, year-end ratings aren't released until December.

What winning percentage is generally expected at level for a player to reasonably request to join a team at the next higher level?
Click to expand...


I am always conflicted and hypocritical on this.

First, when I am playing at level I don't want to play "lower" level players and get those bagel and breadstick wins.
Then again, I would rather be a lower level player who is heavily challenged and have played up often, being that bagel/breadstick guy that annoys me.

But really, if I am winning a majority of matches easily then I play up. If I am losing most the time and getting blown off the court playing up, I go back to playing at level.

A lot of guys want to be the big fish in whatever pond they can sandbag in to go to nationals, but that ain't on my radar.
 
leech said:
80% of regular season matches; 60% of postseason matches.
Click to expand...
This is a very big generalization and definitely not a hard and fast rule. Someone that plays weaker players (lower rated at level or playing up) regularly can win every match and may not be bumped up. Similarly, if someone happens to play tough opponents all the time, they could be bumped up with less than 80% win rate, especially if the losses are close and wins are easy. And in doubles, throw in the varying strength of one's partner and you'll definitely see exceptions to this 80%/60%.
 
ThinkPad said:
I'm a 3.5S, and I've won 8 out of 9 matches at the 3.5 level. I'm rather bored at my current level and would like to play up immediately. But, year-end ratings aren't released until December.

What winning percentage is generally expected at level for a player to reasonably request to join a team at the next higher level?
Click to expand...

There isn't a set number because most players don't play enough matches for "win percentage" to tell you much. Like, if you've played four matches - 100% win percent might still not mean you should play up (if all four of your opponents were low-level, or if this was in doubles with a partner that's underrated), or maybe you could have a 50% win percentage but still be ready to play at a higher level (if you were always given low-level partners, or if your two losses were to people who are about to be bumped up).

If you're playing a representative sample of all people at your level, then I'd guess an 80-90% win percentage means you should really try the higher level, but nobody actually plays a random sample of opponents.

So I'd suggest just go for it. See if you can find a team at the next level up to play on, or play some practice matches with folks at the next level up, and see how it goes.
 
Play up if you feel like trying it out, doesn't hurt to do so. You can also check your UTR profile and see what the UTR's of the people you played against are, if they're on the higher end then you should probably move up.
 
janelgreo said:
Play up if you feel like trying it out, doesn't hurt to do so. You can also check your UTR profile and see what the UTR's of the people you played against are, if they're on the higher end then you should probably move up.
Click to expand...

Probably doesn't need to check the opponents UTR - After 9 matches - if they are all USTA matches that count he/she would likely have a verified UTR. If the UTR > 5.75 then playing at 4.0 would not be out of place.
 
Thanks for the feedback, everyone. I just asked a Director of League Tennis at one of the clubs I play at the same question. He said he wants to see about a dozen matches with a minimum of 75% win rate before recommending that a player move up a level. He'll adjust that figure based on lopsided results, quality of opponent/court, etc.

He encouraged me to begin practicing with the 4.0 team and my current team. Fingers crossed.
 
Doan said:
Probably doesn't need to check the opponents UTR - After 9 matches - if they are all USTA matches that count he/she would likely have a verified UTR. If the UTR > 5.75 then playing at 4.0 would not be out of place.
Click to expand...
In recent weeks, my UTR has ranged from 5.2 - 5.95. It's mostly been 5.25 - 5.50.
 
ThinkPad said:
In recent weeks, my UTR has ranged from 5.2 - 5.95. It's mostly been 5.25 - 5.50.
Click to expand...

In my area that's about right for the high 3.5 / low 4.0 range. No reason not to play some 4.0 this year if you want to - just need to find a captain who will play you. When I was in a similar situation, I found a 4.0 team that had been forfeiting lines in their first few matches, and they were happy to take me as a sub. Also, if your 3.5 team is going to make the post-season you might as well keep playing there - you'll get good matches against other high-end 3.5s in the playoffs.
 
ChaelAZ said:
A lot of guys want to be the big fish in whatever pond they can sandbag in to go to nationals, but that ain't on my radar.
Click to expand...

Then, at the other extreme, are those who think they can only improve by playing up so they spend all of their time getting pummeled so they can brag about playing against the big boys and not learning how to beat peers and crush lowers. Then they complain when losing at-level or down because "they don't play right".
 
ThinkPad said:
I'm a 3.5S, and I've won 8 out of 9 matches at the 3.5 level. I'm rather bored at my current level and would like to play up immediately. But, year-end ratings aren't released until December.

What winning percentage is generally expected at level for a player to reasonably request to join a team at the next higher level?
Click to expand...
The answer is very simple: just play the guys on the team you want to join and see if you have the game to be an asset to them. If you can hang/help the team you’ll get playing time very naturally. If you can’t, you won’t and shouldn’t beg. Practice instead.
 
S&V-not_dead_yet said:
Then, at the other extreme, are those who think they can only improve by playing up so they spend all of their time getting pummeled so they can brag about playing against the big boys and not learning how to beat peers and crush lowers. Then they complain when losing at-level or down because "they don't play right".
Click to expand...
SOOOOO MUCH THIS ^^^

4.0S friend complained when he lost to a push lobber. Told him, “Well, you never learned how to handle that game. People aren’t required to try to out-rally you when you have an exploitable hole…”
 
I tend to agree with many of the posters above.
As a woman, one thing that absolutely infuriates me is people (women) who get bumped up a level and then instantly start playing up as well. So the newly minted 3.0 is playing 3.5 .... the newly minted 3.5 is on a 4.0 team. It's a scourge. (there is a 3.0 on my 3.5 team .... she is 0-8 at 3.0 and 0-3 at 3.5 I have no idea why she is on the team and why she is getting any playing time)

A few years ago I would have said that if you are winning around 60-75% of your at level matches then play up.

I have amended that: If you re winning 75% of your at level matches at Singles (against at level opponents) or at doubles with the weakest players on your team as partners against at level players. Then you can play up.

From OP's description I would think playing up would make sense ... but also like what your club's director of tennis had to say.

I do wish that USTA had an algorithm that produced a dynamic NTRP. They could insert that into the sign up process (in the background of course) and if your dNTRP isn't high enough then it wouldn't let you register for the next level. (kind of like if you are 38 it won't let you register for 40+) It would make the leagues much more competitive!
 
schmke said:
This is a very big generalization and definitely not a hard and fast rule. Someone that plays weaker players (lower rated at level or playing up) regularly can win every match and may not be bumped up. Similarly, if someone happens to play tough opponents all the time, they could be bumped up with less than 80% win rate, especially if the losses are close and wins are easy. And in doubles, throw in the varying strength of one's partner and you'll definitely see exceptions to this 80%/60%.
Click to expand...
Oh, I wasn't using those percentages as a predictor of being bumped up. Those were my personal thresholds of when it would be appropriate for a player to play up a level. If they didn't meet those parameters, I think they should refrain from wasting partners'/opponents' time by playing up a level.
 
ThinkPad said:
I'm a 3.5S, and I've won 8 out of 9 matches at the 3.5 level. I'm rather bored at my current level and would like to play up immediately. But, year-end ratings aren't released until December.

What winning percentage is generally expected at level for a player to reasonably request to join a team at the next higher level?
Click to expand...
You can play a full level up at any time. No need to wait for ratings.
 
schmke said:
This is a very big generalization and definitely not a hard and fast rule. Someone that plays weaker players (lower rated at level or playing up) regularly can win every match and may not be bumped up. Similarly, if someone happens to play tough opponents all the time, they could be bumped up with less than 80% win rate, especially if the losses are close and wins are easy. And in doubles, throw in the varying strength of one's partner and you'll definitely see exceptions to this 80%/60%.
Click to expand...
This is 100% accurate. I won 90% of my matches and did not level up because I played a lot of folks playing up and or very low end players.
 
Percentages of matches won may not be a good indicator. Percentages of games won would be better but as others have mentioned it still depends on other factors. Look at TR ratings and UTR ratings of your opponents and partners combined with how close you feel the matches are. If you are playing with a weak partner against teams with ratings at the high end for 3.5 and are not challenged then I think you should be OK but it depends on the team.

You can reasonably expect to be on a 4.0 team if the 4.0 captain wants you. It is that simple. Nothing in the rules prevents you playing up on .5 level and some teams need more players. Other 4.0 teams are already full of players that are at or close to 4.5. If a team has 14 6.3 utr players you probably will not make the cut-or get played much if you do.
 
leech said:
Oh, I wasn't using those percentages as a predictor of being bumped up. Those were my personal thresholds of when it would be appropriate for a player to play up a level. If they didn't meet those parameters, I think they should refrain from wasting partners'/opponents' time by playing up a level.
Click to expand...
You got me. My bad on misinterpreting.
 
leech said:
Oh, I wasn't using those percentages as a predictor of being bumped up. Those were my personal thresholds of when it would be appropriate for a player to play up a level. If they didn't meet those parameters, I think they should refrain from wasting partners'/opponents' time by playing up a level.
Click to expand...
Generally, I won't disagree with you on these matters as you have so much more experience than me. However, I think I will disagree with you on this one, just slightly :p
The year I got bumped up from 3.5 to 4.0, my win rate wasn't that high at all, as it never is actually. I played up at the 4.0 level too with a very low win rate at that level, 11%. Maybe some of my partners were not happy playing with me, but it was invaluable for me in increasing my confidence level, learning to play better, and getting to know the 4.0 players in our area. Also, although our team won the 3.5 nationals (40+ I think it was, no?), I did not actually go to the Nationals tourney with you, so that wasn't a factor in my bump up either. And my post-season record wasn't anything to brag about, 66% win rate there. My overall win rate at 3.5 rated matches was 70%, both 40+ and 18+.

And just for kicks, my overall 3.5 level games won rate was 59%.

My standards are a bit lower than yours certainly. I do believe it is important to play up, in moderation, at any level. At the end, if the goal is to advance one's game and become a more rounded tennis player; not necessarily winning championships or tourneys. If the objective is to focus on post-season wins, then I have to agree with your approach, which is where you and I differ :-D
 
OnTheLine said:
I do wish that USTA had an algorithm that produced a dynamic NTRP. They could insert that into the sign up process (in the background of course) and if your dNTRP isn't high enough then it wouldn't let you register for the next level. (kind of like if you are 38 it won't let you register for 40+) It would make the leagues much more competitive!
Click to expand...

I kinda like this idea. Some areas already have a system in place where they publish lower-half or upper-half lists of players at particular levels, for the purpose of having half-level leagues. But they could also use a list like that to designate who is eligible to play up to the next level (i.e. only the upper-half players). This could maybe be an easier way to accomplish the goal, compared to programming a new background-algorithm.
 
TennisOTM said:
I kinda like this idea. Some areas already have a system in place where they publish lower-half or upper-half lists of players at particular levels, for the purpose of having half-level leagues. But they could also use a list like that to designate who is eligible to play up to the next level (i.e. only the upper-half players). This could maybe be an easier way to accomplish the goal, compared to programming a new background-algorithm.
Click to expand...

It should be an easy programing issue .... in fact it is already in place ... a 3.5 cannot register for a 3.0 team nor a 4.5 team so it would be just a really minor tweak ...
 
Ft.S said:
my post-season record wasn't anything to brag about, 66% win rate there. My overall win rate at 3.5 rated matches was 70%, both 40+ and 18+.

At the end, if the goal is to advance one's game and become a more rounded tennis player; not necessarily winning championships or tourneys. If the objective is to focus on post-season wins, then I have to agree with your approach, which is where you and I differ :-D
Click to expand...

Hey, a 70% win rate with 66% postseason win rate is pretty dang good, and I'm sure no one thought playing with or against you was a waste of time.

But yes, we have very different objectives -- yours is on improving as a tennis players, and mine is maximizing my utility at my assigned NTRP. I feel that if I play up a level, I could prematurely get bumped up (compared to waiting to get bumped up by dominating at my assigned level).
 
This type of logic really takes a lot of the fun out of leagues. Expecting to win 80 to 90% of your matches at a level means you're probably already out of level.

I barely won more than 50% of my matches at 3.5 last year and I was pretty out of level. Of course only one person I lost to remained a 3.5 and he was a 3.5A last year. I also won the same percentage of 4.0 matches.
 
I think this varies from area to area. I am captaining a 3.5 men's over 40 team that is mostly 3.0 players. In fact I had a hard time finding the 40% of 3.5 players we need to have a team. It is the first time in years we had this league. But my 3.0 players that have a computer ratings are pretty close to being bumped to 3.5 (according to TR) and a few players on the other team are low 3.5 players according to TR. The UTRs look comparable as well. So we will see.

leech said:
.... I feel that if I play up a level, I could prematurely get bumped up (compared to waiting to get bumped up by dominating at my assigned level).
Click to expand...


Because the levels are so wide I also think it is easier to get a 4.0c rating by playing up than it is by waiting to get bumped from 3.5. But it might depend on the player.
 
OnTheLine said:
It should be an easy programing issue .... in fact it is already in place ... a 3.5 cannot register for a 3.0 team nor a 4.5 team so it would be just a really minor tweak ...
Click to expand...

But you were talking about the system automatically accessing and checking your current dynamic NTRP at the moment you sign up for league, which could be harder to set up depending on how and where they store those dynamic calculation results.

Maybe it would be easy, given that they already have the automatic appeal button, but I think the auto-appeal decision is based on your last year-end exact NTRP and not on your current dNTRP at the moment you click.
 
TennisOTM said:
But you were talking about the system automatically accessing and checking your current dynamic NTRP at the moment you sign up for league, which could be harder to set up depending on how and where they store those dynamic calculation results.

Maybe it would be easy, given that they already have the automatic appeal button, but I think the auto-appeal decision is based on your last year-end exact NTRP and not on your current dNTRP at the moment you click.
Click to expand...

True .. but it still shouldn't be a massive programing problem ... the data is there, wherever they store/update it ... I know my old LLC had new dNTRPs every Tuesday and ran a check against S and A rated players
 
Forget the w/l record, what are the score lines to your matches and what’s your opponents records? If you’re beating your opponents with 2 games or less, I would say you don’t belong. But if you’re going the distance everytime, then you are where you belong.
 
Generally if you want to play up, you need to find a captain who wants you to join their team and then will put you into the lineup. In almost all teams I have been on, new players with low ratings a level below are asked to play social/practice matches with members of the team and if they do well, they get invited to join the team. If they look like they belong only in the lower level league, they either won’t be asked to join the team or will get playing time only if there are not enough other players to fill out a lineup for a match.
 
Creighton said:
This type of logic really takes a lot of the fun out of leagues. Expecting to win 80 to 90% of your matches at a level means you're probably already out of level.

I barely won more than 50% of my matches at 3.5 last year and I was pretty out of level. Of course only one person I lost to remained a 3.5 and he was a 3.5A last year. I also won the same percentage of 4.0 matches.
Click to expand...
I don't think monitoring player statistics takes the fun out of the game. I'd say it's quite the opposite. As a boy, I began to follow my stats as a Little League Baseball player and the stats of my favorite major league players. Such analysis provided objectivity to player performance and made playing baseball and watching it far more enjoyable.

USTA League play is also deeply rooted in statistics via their NTRP rating algorithm. Moreover, TennisLink calculates games won percentages, and tie breaks are determined by individual wins, fewest sets lost, fewest games lost, and games won percentage.

USTA Captains use statistics such as UTR ratings, matches won %, and games won % to field competitive lineups. So for many, including myself, statistics and sports are intertwined. Ignoring the stats would make the game rather dull!
 
badmice2 said:
Forget the w/l record, what are the score lines to your matches and what’s your opponents records? If you’re beating your opponents with 2 games or less, I would say you don’t belong. But if you’re going the distance everytime, then you are where you belong.
Click to expand...
I've only played on the # 1 or #2 Doubles and #2 Singles lines. My games won percentage is 66%. I don't know what my opponent's records are. If they're playing on the upper lines I assume they're better than the # 3 lines. My scores have varied from narrowly winning or losing to winning by 2 and 3 service breaks per set.
 
ThinkPad said:
I don't think monitoring player statistics takes the fun out of the game. I'd say it's quite the opposite. As a boy, I began to follow my stats as a Little League Baseball player and the stats of my favorite major league players. Such analysis provided objectivity to player performance and made playing baseball and watching it far more enjoyable.

USTA League play is also deeply rooted in statistics via their NTRP rating algorithm. Moreover, TennisLink calculates games won percentages, and tie breaks are determined by individual wins, fewest sets lost, fewest games lost, and games won percentage.

USTA Captains use statistics such as UTR ratings, matches won %, and games won % to field competitive lineups. So for many, including myself, statistics and sports are intertwined. Ignoring the stats would make the game rather dull!
Click to expand...

It's not the statistics I was talking about. It's the idea that, "I'm only "ready" for next level if I'm winning 90% of my matches."
 
ThinkPad said:
I'm a 3.5S, and I've won 8 out of 9 matches at the 3.5 level. I'm rather bored at my current level and would like to play up immediately. But, year-end ratings aren't released until December.

What winning percentage is generally expected at level for a player to reasonably request to join a team at the next higher level?
Click to expand...

8-1 isn't quite enough info to say you're getting bored at the level unless you've had 5+ blowouts. It's quite different than being 9-0 and never dropping more than 2 games per match.
 
Yeah, I had a season where I was 8-2 or something like that. ...I went 7 for 7 on supertiebreak wins that season. It was pretty great. I did not get bumped up, and since that season I've had an under 50% win rate at that same level...
 
mikelikesgatorad said:
8-1 isn't quite enough info to say you're getting bored at the level unless you've had 5+ blowouts. It's quite different than being 9-0 and never dropping more than 2 games per match.
Click to expand...
Well, as an "S" player, 9-0 and never losing more than 2 games per match would certainly generate strikes and disqualification.
 
when i was a 3.5, i never got bumped up from winning at S1 at 3.5 (most of the time folks in the league already knew me, and often sacrificed their worst player to me)
IMO i was bumped up to 4.0, because i was already good enough (by virtue of convincing/beating the capt of the 4.0 team), to play on a 4.0 team (so played on both a 3.5 and 4.0 team for a season or two, with a 50/50 record in 4.0, before getting bumped up to 4.0).
 
S&V-not_dead_yet said:
Then, at the other extreme, are those who think they can only improve by playing up so they spend all of their time getting pummeled so they can brag about playing against the big boys and not learning how to beat peers and crush lowers. Then they complain when losing at-level or down because "they don't play right".
Click to expand...
True those folks exist, but for every one of them there are 10 sandbaggers playing down and winning 7 out of 8 matches.
 
It's all up to the team you'd be playing up on. Surely you know some 4.0s at your club, but if not, introduce yourself, explain your situation and ask if you can practice with them (if they even have team practices) or get some people's emails/numbers so you can hit with them. Heck, just by expressing your interest you might get asked to play up immediately as teams often need more available players (admittedly this is less likely at 4.0 since that seems to be the most populated level, in my area at least).
 
Max G. said:
Yeah, I had a season where I was 8-2 or something like that. ...I went 7 for 7 on supertiebreak wins that season. It was pretty great. I did not get bumped up, and since that season I've had an under 50% win rate at that same level...
Click to expand...

What a lot of people don't understand is that the NTRP computer algorithm is designed to create competitive individual matches so that people keep playing (and paying). It's all about the scoreline and whether your matches are competitive. You could go 30-0 at 3.5, but if all your wins are like 6-4 6-4, you won't get moved up by the algorithm. Win 3 matches in a row 6-1 6-1 at the end of the year against fellow 3.5Cs though and you'll get moved up to 4.0 guaranteed.
 
ThinkPad said:
Update: completed the 3.5 seasons 12-1. Recently, started practicing with a 4.0 team and playing as a substitute. Got my first 4.0 win several days ago. Don't really want to return to the 3.5 courts now.
Click to expand...


Yeah, 3.5 is an albatross, always dragging people down and holding them hostage. Don't look back and enjoy the better competition! Congrats.
 
No self ratings should ever be allowed!!!! Play at your level not below!!!! Self ratings =sandbagging which USTA must get rid of!
 
time_fly said:
Ok, so how do new players get into leagues then?
Click to expand...

Good point.

It took me a few months to find a USTA team and captain that would allow me to join his team. I sent multiple emails to the local league coordinator, filled out the website for new players, and asked hitting partners if they knew of any captains looking for new players.

If wish USTA made it "easier" to join USTA league for new players.
 
cks said:
Good point.

It took me a few months to find a USTA team and captain that would allow me to join his team. I sent multiple emails to the local league coordinator, filled out the website for new players, and asked hitting partners if they knew of any captains looking for new players.

If wish USTA made it "easier" to join USTA league for new players.
Click to expand...
As a long time captain, I see the other side. I have a full roster, and every year when a few people drop off due to bumps or life changes, I recruit a few players to take their places. I don’t have a need for a lot of new players, or players dropping into my team in the middle of the season (unless they happen to be fantastic, of course). USTA needs to develop more captains and more teams to get more participation; otherwise people will have experiences like yours.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

omegaman66
What is need to move up my NTRP rating?
Replies
10
Views
659
ichaseballs
ichaseballs
M
Playing Up a Level
2
Replies
58
Views
3K
TennisOTM
T
M
My Expected Rating?
Replies
12
Views
1K
kevhen
K
penpal
A defense for the (presumed) sandbagger
Replies
41
Views
4K
Raiden.Kaminari
R
K
MS Tennis Association on Ratings
Replies
2
Views
2K
fe6250
fe6250
Back
Top