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Hall of Fame
Interesting take by by Carl Bialik http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2011/05/16/the-dominant-djokovic-streak/
"If Novak Djokovic wins seven matches in Paris at the French Open, which starts next week, he’ll have tied Guillermo Vilas’s Open-era record for most consecutive wins, with 46 — and he’ll have his first French Open crown. But by some measures, he already has the most impressive men’s tennis winning streak in modern history.
Djokovic extended his streak, which began six months ago with his two wins in Serbia’s triumph in the Davis Cup, by beating Rafael Nadal in the Rome final on Sunday. He has now won all 37 matches he’s played this year, and 39 straight overall. That ranks sixth best all time, and second best in the past 15 years, behind Roger Federer‘s 41 consecutive match wins between fall 2006 and spring 2007. Comparing Djokovic’s run to Federer’s 41 straight — and to his 35 straight in 2005, the next best streak in the past 15 years — makes more sense than comparing Djokovic’s run to Vilas’s, which came when top pros played many more small tournaments. Twice in finals during his run, Vilas beat players ranked outside the Top 25 — and one of them was outside the Top 100. (The most recent streak of 35 or more wins besides Djokovic’s and Federer’s was Thomas Muster‘s in 1995, with all 35 wins coming on clay.)
Federer’s streaks were certainly impressive, and dominant: In each he won two Grand Slam tournaments and one Masters event, the next tier down; the later streak also included a tour final, a once-a-year event somewhere in between a Masters event and a major. Djokovic, though, has won a major and four Masters events during his streak. Winning those may be even harder than winning a major, judging from top players’ records in those events: Though there are nine each season, Federer has just 17 titles compared to 16 at the four-times-a-year majors, while Nadal has the most Masters titles ever — 19, just three more than Federer’s record for most majors. With four Masters events left in the calendar, Djokovic has four chances to break the record for Masters titles in a single season (four), which Federer and Nadal each have accomplished.
Moreover, Djokovic has been more dominant in his streak than Federer was in his, and against tougher competition. He’s won 90% of his sets and 65% of games, while serving up a bagel set every 10 sets. In Federer’s first streak he won 89% of sets and 61% of games, with a bagel every 19 sets. His second, longer streak, was closer to Djokovic’s level, with 93% of sets won and 63% of games, and a bagel every 12 sets. Even more impressively, Djokovic has faced and beaten top competition repeatedly. Just three of his opponents ranked outside the Top 100 (and one of those, James Blake, is a former Top Five player.) Federer faced four players outside the Top 100 in each streak. Djokovic’s opponents’ median ranking has been 21, compared to 25 in Federer’s more recent streak and 35 in his earlier one. And Djokovic particularly has stared down his top competition, beating Top Five players 10 times and fellow Top Three players seven times — Nadal four times and Federer three times. That’s more than Federer’s number of matches against competition that good in his two streaks combined: Just nine matches against Top Five players and just two against players in the top three, including, crucially, just one against Nadal, who has won two-thirds of their career meetings. Djokovic had a losing record against both Federer and Nadal before the streak, and still does, but he’s significantly narrowed the gap against both of them."
"If Novak Djokovic wins seven matches in Paris at the French Open, which starts next week, he’ll have tied Guillermo Vilas’s Open-era record for most consecutive wins, with 46 — and he’ll have his first French Open crown. But by some measures, he already has the most impressive men’s tennis winning streak in modern history.
Djokovic extended his streak, which began six months ago with his two wins in Serbia’s triumph in the Davis Cup, by beating Rafael Nadal in the Rome final on Sunday. He has now won all 37 matches he’s played this year, and 39 straight overall. That ranks sixth best all time, and second best in the past 15 years, behind Roger Federer‘s 41 consecutive match wins between fall 2006 and spring 2007. Comparing Djokovic’s run to Federer’s 41 straight — and to his 35 straight in 2005, the next best streak in the past 15 years — makes more sense than comparing Djokovic’s run to Vilas’s, which came when top pros played many more small tournaments. Twice in finals during his run, Vilas beat players ranked outside the Top 25 — and one of them was outside the Top 100. (The most recent streak of 35 or more wins besides Djokovic’s and Federer’s was Thomas Muster‘s in 1995, with all 35 wins coming on clay.)
Federer’s streaks were certainly impressive, and dominant: In each he won two Grand Slam tournaments and one Masters event, the next tier down; the later streak also included a tour final, a once-a-year event somewhere in between a Masters event and a major. Djokovic, though, has won a major and four Masters events during his streak. Winning those may be even harder than winning a major, judging from top players’ records in those events: Though there are nine each season, Federer has just 17 titles compared to 16 at the four-times-a-year majors, while Nadal has the most Masters titles ever — 19, just three more than Federer’s record for most majors. With four Masters events left in the calendar, Djokovic has four chances to break the record for Masters titles in a single season (four), which Federer and Nadal each have accomplished.
Moreover, Djokovic has been more dominant in his streak than Federer was in his, and against tougher competition. He’s won 90% of his sets and 65% of games, while serving up a bagel set every 10 sets. In Federer’s first streak he won 89% of sets and 61% of games, with a bagel every 19 sets. His second, longer streak, was closer to Djokovic’s level, with 93% of sets won and 63% of games, and a bagel every 12 sets. Even more impressively, Djokovic has faced and beaten top competition repeatedly. Just three of his opponents ranked outside the Top 100 (and one of those, James Blake, is a former Top Five player.) Federer faced four players outside the Top 100 in each streak. Djokovic’s opponents’ median ranking has been 21, compared to 25 in Federer’s more recent streak and 35 in his earlier one. And Djokovic particularly has stared down his top competition, beating Top Five players 10 times and fellow Top Three players seven times — Nadal four times and Federer three times. That’s more than Federer’s number of matches against competition that good in his two streaks combined: Just nine matches against Top Five players and just two against players in the top three, including, crucially, just one against Nadal, who has won two-thirds of their career meetings. Djokovic had a losing record against both Federer and Nadal before the streak, and still does, but he’s significantly narrowed the gap against both of them."
