I watched the Stepanek match today in Cincy
I was there on the grandstand court today in Cincy to witness what has become an all too frequent and predictable scenario -- a Safin choke and meltdown.
Safin came on court looking relaxed and confident. He started strongly and secured an early break. Stepanek was way off with his serve and forehand. Marat really attacked Step's forehand and drew a number of feeble errors. Safin's forehand, through the first set, was fine, as was his serve.
Serving for the set at 5-4, however, Safin clearly began to think about the moment. All year, he has choked and suffered major collapses while ahead in matches. In the 5-4 game he double faulted twice to fall behind 15-40 before rallying to hold and win the set with some clutch aces. I watched him closely as he returned to his bench and he was shaking his head and muttering the entire way. Sure, he had nearly blown it, but he actually showed a glimmer of the Safin of old in coming up with some big serves under pressure.
Still, Marat clearly took no confidence or momentum with him into the second set. I said early in the year that Safin had developed a severe mental block when it comes to closing out matches. He seems to have no belief that he can or should be beating higher ranked players or really almost anyone for that matter.
As soon as Safin fell behind a break in the second set the match was over. You could see him thinking, "Here we go again. I'm going to lose it." I'm sure Stepanek sensed it too. All of the other players know that all they have to do is stay somewhat competitive and Safin will fall apart.
Safin held easily to start the third, but was broken in the third game of the final set after making several terrible errors. From then on it was a classic Safin tank fest. He double faulted four times and all but intentionally made unforced errors from the baseline as Stepanek cruised through the final four games in about fifteen minutes.
I watched Marat's collapses earlier this year in Miami against Monfils, in Monte Carlo vs. Lapentti and in Rome vs. Robredo, but seeing this one in person was really tough. Technically, Safin doesn't move nearly as well as he did years ago and there could be something to the theory about a glitch with his forehand technique, but in my opinion, his demise is virtually all mental. Safin has somehow lost nearly total confidence in himself to close out sets and matches. He's way too hard on himself, and he just doesn't have any belief. It's sad. In hindsight, the worst thing Safin could've done was announce that he was retiring at the end of the year. If anything, he put more pressure on himself by doing so.