When Fanfic meets Reality: If Federer has gotten worse, why are his stats better?

SaintPetros

Professional
We often hear that Federer's form has declined, that he's half the player he was during his "peak"playing against Roddick, Hewitt, Baghdatis etc. so I decided to compare the stats measuring Fed's performance at his best slam, Wimbledon, in the last year of his "peak" (2007) to this year's final. Against a superior grass court player, just about every single one of Fed's statistics improved: higher percentage of first serve points won, more winners, aces, better break point conversion, more total points won, better Winners to UFE differential, you name it. So my question is: If Federer has gotten noticeably worse as his Fans claim, why is he doing so many things better than ever before?


2007 Stats:

Category Federer Nadal
1st Serve %71%70%
Aces241
Double Faults32
Winners6550
Unforced Errors3424
Winner-UFE+31+26
Winning % on 1st Serve71%68%
Winning % on 2nd Serve62%57%
Receiving Points Won35%31%
Break Point Conversions3/8 (37%)4/11 (36%)
Net Approaches Won30/51 (59%)18/26 (69%)
Total Points Won165158


2019 Final Stats:

CategoryDjokovicFederer
1st serve %136 of 219 = 62%127 of 203 = 63%
1st serve points won101 of 136 = 74%100 of 127 = 79%
2nd serve points won39 of 83 = 47%39 of 76 = 51%
Aces1025
Double faults96
Winners5494
Unforced errors5262
Winners-UFE+2+32
Break point conversions3 of 8 = 38%7 of 13 = 54%
Receiving points won64 of 203 = 32%79 of 219 = 36%
Total points won204218
 

Eren

Professional
He was better in the big points back then compared to now. Plus twice the amount of DFs, much more UFEs now compared to 2007. Don't forget, it's not about hitting a winner when you're up 40-0 lol, it's about hitting them when you're up 40-15 and have two CPs ;) or when you're playing a breaker.

Second, Nadal played WAY better than Djokovic in that final lol. Federer won the one in 2007 against a better playing Nadal and lost against a worse Djokovic. That says it all.

At least, we can conclude that mentally he has gotten even worse not only on clay which was his main issue against Nadal, but on all surfaces now lol (Wimbledon and USO chokes prove it, f.e. choking against Anderson and Djokovic at Wimby).

higher percentage of first serve points won, more winners, aces, better break point conversion, more total points won, better Winners to UFE differential,
The bolded are dependent on the performance of the opponent. Doesn't say anything about the relative level of play between 2007 and 2019 Federer. Only aces improved, but the first serve % declined a lot lol, 71% vs. 63%.

You should look at the things Federer has in control only, first serve % in, aces, average speed of his FH, acceleration speed (much more relevant in tennis than velocity) etc. Then you'll know if 2007 or 2019 Federer is better.

What did you prove?

Nadal was a lot harder to handle for Federer than Djokovic (at least until the age of 33). We already know this. His spinny FH ***** Federer's BH like no other.

If Federer has gotten worse, why are his stats better?
Because his opponent of 2019 sucked more than his opponent of 2007. However, Federer '19 sucked more than his '07 counterpart resulting in a loss in '19 and a win in '07.
 
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SaintPetros

Professional
He was better in the big points back then compared to now. Plus twice the amount of DFs, much more UFEs now compared to 2007. Don't forget, it's not about hitting a winner when you're up 40-0 lol, it's about hitting them when you're up 40-15 and have two CPs ;) or when you're playing a breaker.

Second, Nadal played WAY better than Djokovic in that final lol. Federer won the one in 2007 against a better playing Nadal and lost against a worse Djokovic. That says it all.

At least, we can conclude that mentally he has gotten even worse not only on clay which was his main issue against Nadal, but on all surfaces now lol (Wimbledon and USO chokes prove it, f.e. choking against Anderson and Djokovic at Wimby).



The bolded are dependent on the performance of the opponent. Doesn't say anything about the relative level of play between 2007 and 2019 Federer. Only aces improved, but the first serve % declined a lot lol, 71% vs. 63%.

You should look at the things Federer has in control only, first serve % in, aces, average speed of his FH, acceleration speed (much more relevant in tennis than velocity) etc. Then you'll know if 2007 or 2019 Federer is better.

What did you prove?

Nadal was a lot harder to handle for Federer than Djokovic (at least until the age of 33). We already know this. His spinny FH ***** Federer's BH like no other.



Because his opponent of 2019 sucked more than his opponent of 2007. However, Federer '19 sucked more than his '07 counterpart resulting in a loss in '19 and a win in '07.
Huh, break point conversion is dependent on the opponent. I'm sure Fed is relieved to hear that. Must make all those Finals losses to Nadal easier to bear.
 

er4claw

Rookie
2007 wasnt federers peak that would be sad if it was , a clay court specialist took him to 5 on his best surface. Peak fed was serving up bagels.
 

er4claw

Rookie
The elusive, mythical Peak Fed.
2003 tmc -2007 aus open, nothing elusive about it clear cut boundaries. Highlights from him from this period are awsome, tennis perfection. Makes you feel sick watching modern tennis.

2007 gets overrated because he beat a tired nadal on fast clay.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
2003 tmc -2007 aus open, nothing elusive about it clear cut boundaries. Highlights from him from this period are awsome, tennis perfection. Makes you feel sick watching modern tennis.

2007 gets overrated because he beat a tired nadal on fast clay.
So presumably the loss to 2004 Baby Nadal in Miami is considered as within this awesome period of invincibility? Just wanted to be sure.
Stop being so harsh. Beating ANY version of Nadal is an amazing accomplishment for Federer.
 

er4claw

Rookie
So presumably the loss to 2004 Baby Nadal in Miami is considered as within this awesome period of invincibility? Just wanted to be sure.
Stop being so harsh, beating ANY version of Nadal is an amazing accomplishment for Federer.
He was sick in that match.
 

ReeceSachs

Hall of Fame
Nadal extracts more UFs of you in his peak with his insane movement on grass. Nadal was at his peak in the 2007 final. Djokovic wasn’t at his 2014/15 level he was not as his best this year but he tightened up and played close to it on breakers only.
 

AceSalvo

Legend
He was better in the big points back then compared to now. Plus twice the amount of DFs, much more UFEs now compared to 2007. Don't forget, it's not about hitting a winner when you're up 40-0 lol, it's about hitting them when you're up 40-15 and have two CPs ;) or when you're playing a breaker.

Second, Nadal played WAY better than Djokovic in that final lol. Federer won the one in 2007 against a better playing Nadal and lost against a worse Djokovic. That says it all.

At least, we can conclude that mentally he has gotten even worse not only on clay which was his main issue against Nadal, but on all surfaces now lol (Wimbledon and USO chokes prove it, f.e. choking against Anderson and Djokovic at Wimby).



The bolded are dependent on the performance of the opponent. Doesn't say anything about the relative level of play between 2007 and 2019 Federer. Only aces improved, but the first serve % declined a lot lol, 71% vs. 63%.

You should look at the things Federer has in control only, first serve % in, aces, average speed of his FH, acceleration speed (much more relevant in tennis than velocity) etc. Then you'll know if 2007 or 2019 Federer is better.

What did you prove?

Nadal was a lot harder to handle for Federer than Djokovic (at least until the age of 33). We already know this. His spinny FH ***** Federer's BH like no other.



Because his opponent of 2019 sucked more than his opponent of 2007. However, Federer '19 sucked more than his '07 counterpart resulting in a loss in '19 and a win in '07.
+100

OP forgot to post 2008 Wimb final because the differential is +37. Burns up 2019 performance.
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
Gee, I wonder how he hit more winners and aces :unsure:

Nothing at all to do with it being THE LONGEST match in Wimbledon finals history.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
Gee, I wonder how he hit more winners and aces :unsure:

Nothing at all to do with it being THE LONGEST match in Wimbledon finals history.
Roddick v Federer was longer in terms of games, and once aces are removed, Fed hit only 57 winners compared to 69 in 2019.
So much for that theory.
 

AceSalvo

Legend
According to Rod Laver it is.
Laver: “I might venture into Fed is playing the best tennis”

I agree with Laver. And you agree with Laver

Laver: “Fed is GOAT”

I agree there too. And you don’t agree with Laver.

Consistency folks. 4 weeks in and still not learning.
 

Towny

Professional
He was better in the big points back then compared to now. Plus twice the amount of DFs, much more UFEs now compared to 2007. Don't forget, it's not about hitting a winner when you're up 40-0 lol, it's about hitting them when you're up 40-15 and have two CPs ;) or when you're playing a breaker.

Second, Nadal played WAY better than Djokovic in that final lol. Federer won the one in 2007 against a better playing Nadal and lost against a worse Djokovic. That says it all.

At least, we can conclude that mentally he has gotten even worse not only on clay which was his main issue against Nadal, but on all surfaces now lol (Wimbledon and USO chokes prove it, f.e. choking against Anderson and Djokovic at Wimby).



The bolded are dependent on the performance of the opponent. Doesn't say anything about the relative level of play between 2007 and 2019 Federer. Only aces improved, but the first serve % declined a lot lol, 71% vs. 63%.

You should look at the things Federer has in control only, first serve % in, aces, average speed of his FH, acceleration speed (much more relevant in tennis than velocity) etc. Then you'll know if 2007 or 2019 Federer is better.

What did you prove?

Nadal was a lot harder to handle for Federer than Djokovic (at least until the age of 33). We already know this. His spinny FH ***** Federer's BH like no other.



Because his opponent of 2019 sucked more than his opponent of 2007. However, Federer '19 sucked more than his '07 counterpart resulting in a loss in '19 and a win in '07.
(y)(y)(y) (so cumbersome not being able to 'like' great posts anymore)
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
2009 is not relevant of course, I brought it up for your sake. Sorry if I confused you.
It is relevant because you compared it to 2019 since it was similar in length, but wrote it off as servebotting. You want to talk about more winners and aces in the 2019 match where 99 more points were played than in 2007. C'mon man.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
It is relevant because you compared it to 2019 since it was similar in length, but wrote it off as servebotting. You want to talk about more winners and aces in the 2019 match where 99 more points were played than in 2007. C'mon man.
The differential is better too though. Heck, it even being comparable should send Fedfans a huge red flag that their fanfic ain't a reality.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
2007 wasnt federers peak that would be sad if it was , a clay court specialist took him to 5 on his best surface. Peak fed was serving up bagels.
It was the end of his peak but still peak fed. His peak is usually regarded as from 2004-2007 with his prime ending 2009 or I guess beginning of 2010.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
I'll simply refer to post #2 @AnOctorokForDinner.

Federer the only athlete in sports history to peak at 38 years old LMAO!
So you think he's an outlier in every respect, most talented, GOAT, highest peak, etc. but struggle with the idea that he's continually improved? Not to mention that the entire field is gravitating towards 30 somethings.
Weird.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Keep guessing. Anytime Fed loses, he's no longer in his prime, and definitely not in his peak.
Lol same could be said when he wins and that he at his peak/prime. I know its hard to comprehend for some people but all time greats are still capable of great performances but the issue is consistency. Fed, as have all the big 3 imo, benefited from a weak ass lost/next gen.
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
I rely on quotes from Laver. You rely on quotes from AnOctorokForDinner . Now your posts make sense.
I rely on what I already know and simply gave credit to a poster that posted it already. Since you rely on Laver and he says Fed is GOAT, then I guess we're done here.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
I rely on what I already know and simply gave credit to a poster that posted it already. Since you rely on Laver and he says Fed is GOAT, then I guess we're done here.
Federer being GOAT, and peaking right now are not mutually exclusive. In fact, him peaking would just reinforce his current GOAT status. There I go again, making your argument for you. You're welcome.
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
Federer being GOAT, and peaking right now are not mutually exclusive. In fact, him peaking would just reinforce his current GOAT status. There I go again, making your argument for you. You're welcome.
Federer did peak for Wimbledon as much as a 38 year old can. I said it myself that during the Nishikori match he was showing signs of it. Some laughed it off, but it was correct.
 

AceSalvo

Legend
Who said 2019 stats are better?




Key stats all down in 2019.

2019 Winners just up by 5 points even though 5th set 12-12 and TB was played??

The fact that Fed hit so many winners, and had a differential comparable, actually better than, his prime,
Winners/UE differential bigger in 2008. Hence better than 2019. Your logic.

Consistency folks.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
Who said 2019 stats are better?




Key stats all down in 2019.

2019 Winners just up by 5 points even though 5th set 12-12 and TB was played??



Winners/UE differential bigger in 2008. Hence better than 2019. Your logic.

Consistency folks.
More total points won, more net approaches won, more receiving points won, better winning percentage on first serve, more winners, all against a 5 time Wimbledon champion and current gunner for GOAT candidate.
Yep, does not get clearer than this.
 

AceSalvo

Legend
More total points won, more net approaches won, more receiving points won, better winning percentage on first serve, more winners, all against a 5 time Wimbledon champion and current gunner for GOAT candidate.
Yep, does not get clearer than this.
9/15 categories in Red. Do the math, hero.
 

SaintPetros

Professional
LOL, they seem to??

BP% increase means Best Ever said no one ever.
Have you ever stopped to think how many more slams Fed would have if he could produce the kind of break point conversion stats as he did in the Wimbledon final? Dumb question, but I am an idealist after all.
 

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
We often hear that Federer's form has declined, that he's half the player he was during his "peak"playing against Roddick, Hewitt, Baghdatis etc. so I decided to compare the stats measuring Fed's performance at his best slam, Wimbledon, in the last year of his "peak" (2007) to this year's final. Against a superior grass court player, just about every single one of Fed's statistics improved: higher percentage of first serve points won, more winners, aces, better break point conversion, more total points won, better Winners to UFE differential, you name it. So my question is: If Federer has gotten noticeably worse as his Fans claim, why is he doing so many things better than ever before?


2007 Stats:

CategoryFedererNadal
1st Serve %71%70%
Aces241
Double Faults32
Winners6550
Unforced Errors3424
Winner-UFE+31+26
Winning % on 1st Serve71%68%
Winning % on 2nd Serve62%57%
Receiving Points Won35%31%
Break Point Conversions3/8 (37%)4/11 (36%)
Net Approaches Won30/51 (59%)18/26 (69%)
Total Points Won165158


2019 Final Stats:

CategoryDjokovicFederer
1st serve %136 of 219 = 62%127 of 203 = 63%
1st serve points won101 of 136 = 74%100 of 127 = 79%
2nd serve points won39 of 83 = 47%39 of 76 = 51%
Aces1025
Double faults96
Winners5494
Unforced errors5262
Winners-UFE+2+32
Break point conversions3 of 8 = 38%7 of 13 = 54%
Receiving points won64 of 203 = 32%79 of 219 = 36%
Total points won204218
Very very very simple.

RF fans (just the fanatical ones) force themselves to denigrate RF's 30s career to prove that this is the weak era. That's all it is.

They are so hung up on everyone declaring 2002-2006 Weak Era that they desperately try to fight fire with fire. Trying hard to boomerang these facts right back. Or at the two players who have de-GOATed the GOAT in the last decade.

Instead of ENJOYING RF's great improvements and applauding them, they keep putting him down.

Yes, it's ironic and plain silly. They put down their own hero - for his own benefit!

Comedy gold.
 
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