When Fed's Slam record will be TRULY safe?

How many?


  • Total voters
    118

D.Nalby12

Legend
I mean truly safe from Nadal? Djokovic is out of race now. So if Nadal fails, his record going to stand for a decade at least (might stand for many decades to come). But Toni just declared their intention to fight for record till the end. As far as Nadal remains lock for FO, I don't see it being unrealistic goal.

How many Slams in your opinion Federer needs to get so there will be no threat of Nadal equalling/surpassing it? Vote.

I say 23.
 
For as long as Nadal is still active and within 3-4 slams of Roger, I don't think you can ever call the record safe.

Nadal, being 5 years younger, is capable of winning the next 3 or 4 FOs. We saw last year that even a physically diminished Nadal wrecks the field on clay. There's no one on the horizon who seems capable of preventing Nadal from winning the FO provided his form is decent. But things can change quickly. I think it's Nadal's health that will determine if he can catch up to Fed or not.
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
I think Wimbledon is very important for Federer. Get it while the getting is good. UO is always so unpredictable, so can't rely on that especially since he hasnt won it in so long. Who knows what kind of shape he will be in by the AO next year. Realistically I see two more majors for him. This Wimbledon and next year at Wimbledon. That's where I see him adding. Basically stating that he has two more opportunities. 21 is the magic number IMO. He just needs to win one of them. See two more RG for Nadal and a random slam or two on HC. If Federer doesn't win his 9th Wimbledon, the GS count gets complicated all over again. All this said assuming Rafa wins RG.
 

Federev

Hall of Fame
23

Fed needs to take advantage of fast AO and continue SW19 dominance.

But I don't think he cares too much about keeping Rafa at bay to be honest. I think he just likes winning.
 
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D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
How come you think that?

Not arguing, just curious.
Because he’s already achieved everything to achieve in tennis (besides the Olympic single gold) so what else could be his motivation? There’s no doubt that he wants to be viewed as the GOAT and what better way to do that by winning more slams than your main rival?
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Define "safe"

There are no certainties in tennis.

Fed might make it 25 and have his record broken within 20 years or he might never win one at all and be record holder until the day that he dies.

I think it's unlikely Nadal can overtake him by just winning RG 5 more times.

Djokovic' window passed.

I think he's pretty safe right now.
 

Defcon

Hall of Fame
Who cares? Nadal only wins FO, he's a clay specialist. He will never come close to Fed in #1, YE #1, WTF etc, and therefore is not in the same conversation. If tomorrow some player comes along who wins 20FO that suddently wont make him GOAT either.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
This AO, Federer has taken a massive step to finally shut the door on his chasers. Djokovic is out of contention, needing an incredible 9 slams minimum to get the record. Nadal took a huge hit just a few days ago. He still has a chance, but it is dropping fast, with the accumilation of injuries, more mileage, wear and tear, and that Federer is winning slams at a faster rate than him.

IF Nadal fails to win RG this year, the race is over imo. Nadal historically struggles at all slams when he fails at RG. If he wins RG and Federer still wins Wimbledon, the race imo is still over. I simply don't see Nadal winning 22 slams. He has won three slams past his prime in four and half years, he will not win another six from this point...at best, and even this is a stretch, he will tie.

With Federer being a moving target, and good for a couple more, Federer winning one more, is more likely than Nadal winning another five from this point.
 

fedtennisphan

Hall of Fame
For as long as Nadal is still active and within 3-4 slams of Roger, I don't think you can ever call the record safe.

Nadal, being 5 years younger, is capable of winning the next 3 or 4 FOs. We saw last year that even a physically diminished Nadal wrecks the field on clay. There's no one on the horizon who seems capable of preventing Nadal from winning the FO provided his form is decent. But things can change quickly. I think it's Nadal's health that will determine if he can catch up to Fed or not.
Sigh, that 5 yrs younger narrative is so played out along that Nadal will just keep winning FOs. It just proves that he needs clay to even keep close.
 
D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
This AO, Federer has taken a massive step to finally shut the door on his chasers. Djokovic is out of contention, needing an incredible 9 slams minimum to get the record. Nadal took a huge hit just a few days ago. He still has a chance, but it is dropping fast, with the accumilation of injuries, more mileage, wear and tear, and that Federer is winning slams at a faster rate thsn him.

IF Nadal fails to win RG this year, the race is over imo. Nadal historically struggles at all slams when he fails at RG. If he wins RG and Federer still wins Wimbledon, the race imo is still over. I simply don't see Nadal winning 22 slams. He has won three slams past his prime in four and half years, he will not win another six from this point...at best, and even this is a stretch, he will tie.

With Federer being a moving target, and good for a couple more, Federer winning one more, is more likely than Nadal winning another five from this point.
I really hope you’re right but how many years have we heard that Nadal's injuries have caught up with him and he’s done?

I’m never counting Rafa out until he’s retired.
 

fedtennisphan

Hall of Fame
This AO, Federer has taken a massive step to finally shut the door on his chasers. Djokovic is out of contention, needing an incredible 9 slams minimum to get the record. Nadal took a huge hit just a few days ago. He still has a chance, but it is dropping fast, with the accumilation of injuries, more mileage, wear and tear, and that Federer is winning slams at a faster rate than him.

IF Nadal fails to win RG this year, the race is over imo. Nadal historically struggles at all slams when he fails at RG. If he wins RG and Federer still wins Wimbledon, the race imo is still over. I simply don't see Nadal winning 22 slams. He has won three slams past his prime in four and half years, he will not win another six from this point...at best, and even this is a stretch, he will tie.

With Federer being a moving target, and good for a couple more, Federer winning one more, is more likely than Nadal winning another five from this point.
Also with the weight of 20 coming off, will that make Federer more of a threat?
 

fedtennisphan

Hall of Fame
Define "safe"

There are no certainties in tennis.

Fed might make it 25 and have his record broken within 20 years or he might never win one at all and be record holder until the day that he dies.

I think it's unlikely Nadal can overtake him by just winning RG 5 more times.

Djokovic' window passed.

I think he's pretty safe right now.
The record is safe because haters want it broke too bad due to not wanting Federer to hold the record.
 
C

Chadillac

Guest
I dont see anyone favored over fed atm. He no longer plays clay, much like lendls mistake with wimbledon, he doesnt have to change his style, because its clay after all.

Looks like the surfaces are playing into his favor, no longer broken down on clay, why they made hard slow. So bad knees could still play

They will make the atp 2/3 sets like the ladies soon, new gen is whiney and records (like masters) will no longer matter
 

fedtennisphan

Hall of Fame
Forget Nadal.
Problem is next gen.
Just imagine a talent similar to fed (not even as good) emerging with no 2x top 5 atg to stop him like novak and rafa.

Without Novak and Rafa, Fed would prolly have 30-40slams now.
That’s a fallacy because a Next Gen player doesn’t even make far enough in a GS draw to face a big 4 player so Nadal and Djokovic not being there won’t make a difference.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
I really hope you’re right but how many years have we heard that Nadal's injuries have caught up with him and he’s done?

I’m never counting Rafa out until he’s retired.
Since AO 2014, when Nadal's prime ended, he has suffered back injuries, wrist injuries, knees injuries, partial muscle tears. He skipped USO 2014, W 2016 due to injuries, pulled put of RG 2016, pulled out injured of WTF 2017, retired injured at AO 2018. His injuries are catching up to him, along with Federer turning the tables on him on their match up. Nadal is a great player, but from USO 2013 to today, he had made zero gains, he is still four behind, Federer showing no signs of stepping down or retiring and still being head and shoulders above all at non clay surfaces. Nadal can win more, but if Federer wins W, this race is over for good. Time is running out more for Nadal, not Federer.
 
D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
Well, I am sure Federed is thinking 21 at SW19. For me, that will end it. Nadal is not getting 22 at this stage. AO loss massively hurt him.
I think if Fed wins Wimbledon it’s over but if he doesn’t then I fancy Rafa to win RG for the next 3 years and close the gap.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
I mean truly safe from Nadal? Djokovic is out of race now. So if Nadal fails, his record going to stand for a decade at least (might stand for many decades to come). But Toni just declared their intention to fight for record till the end. As far as Nadal remains lock for FO, I don't see it being unrealistic goal.

How many Slams in your opinion Federer needs to get so there will be no threat of Nadal equalling/surpassing it? Vote.

I say 23.
Toni gave his nephew a pep talk. Nadal didn't declare that he's going to follow through with it though. After all, Nadal's the one doing all the work on the court. Toni is just a cheerleader at this point. Nadal's body is breaking down.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Toni gave his nephew a pep talk. Nadal didn't declare that he's going to follow through with it though. After all, Nadal's the one doing all the work on the court. Toni is just a cheerleader at this point. Nadal's body is breaking down.
Yeah, has been doing that for some 13 years now.

DIdn't stop him from playing a packed schedule at 31 and being the oldest YE#1 in Open Era.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
I think I can see Federer winning more Slams than Nadal at this point, despite being 5 years older. Federer's the one to beat at Wimbledon. And he may bag USO. Nadal is the favourite for RG.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
I agree. Nadal is unlikely to be the problem. Djokovic was a problem 18 months ago, though I have a hard time seeing Fed get past 21.

The problem is the development of young tennis players. One ATG in an era of **** can take it.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
Yeah, has been doing that for some 13 years now.

DIdn't stop him from playing a packed schedule at 31 and being the oldest YE#1 in Open Era.
I agree but he also had to play sparingly and taken long sabbaticals during many seasons and skipping a lot of Slams. I think he played more matches than he was planning to in 2017 in order to secure the #1 ranking. Otherwise he may have skipped Madrid, WTF, and Beijing. He's not been as physically tough or as fast at AO this year as compared to last year. There's an accumulation effect. He's probably still feeling the effects of that grueling 2017. Much like Andy Murray did when he played his butt off to get the #1 ranking in 2016.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Yeah, has been doing that for some 13 years now.

DIdn't stop him from playing a packed schedule at 31 and being the oldest YE#1 in Open Era.
It happened after an injury ridden 2016, where he pulled out of RG, missed W, and then just did not bother after USO. He only had come back because he missed the Olympics in 2012 and did not want to miss it again.

And his packed 2017 ended with him injured again, he was in visible pain at WTF. Only reason why he really was number one was because Federer's mistake of playing Montreal instead of sticking to Cincy imo.

Nadal has a chance, but it is not a great one imo.
 

Mike Sams

Legend
This is why I said, if Nadal fails this RG it is over. Or if he wins and Federer wins W, it is over. If Nadal wins RG, and Federer does not win W, then, the chance still is there.
They've been seperated by 3 Slams since 2014 where it was 14-17. It's 4 years later and the gap is still relatively the same at 16-20. Nadal apparently is unable to close the gap. RG is probably going to be his most important tournament this year and that's just to get the gap back to within 3. Then they go to grass where Federer is the considerable favourite. And the way it's looking, Federer might be a very difficult hurdle for anyone to beat at USO this year and AO next year. He'll for sure be in better physical shape for USO as his back gave him issues last year.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
It happened after an injury ridden 2016, where he pulled out of RG, missed W, and then just did not bother after USO. He only had come back because he missed the Olympics in 2012 and did not want to miss it again.

And his packed 2017 ended with him injured again, he was in visible pain at WTF. Only reason why he really was number one was because Federer's mistake of playing Montreal instead of sticking to Cincy imo.

Nadal has a chance, but it is not a great one imo.
Yeah, Nadal definitely follows that one great year, one bad year routine quite often but the guy has come back so many times now after being written off that I have to respect that.

Nadal's body breaking down and Fed's age stopping him from contending for slams was supposed to happen for quite a while now. This is a different era compared to the 90s/early 2000s where it was rare to see a player past 30, surgeries were usually ending careers and young guns were chasing down aging stars/legends like a pack of wild dogs.

Fedal are like Jason and Freddy Kruger at this point, they always come back no matter how many times they get dropped. Of course it will end eventually but I don't think it's easy to predict when.
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
He enjoys the lifestyle? He's addicted to the adulation? His wife doesn't want him hanging round the house all day? I'm sure he would like to keep the record. But I don't think he slogged through the five slamless years just because of it. The chances of it not happening were far too high for that.
Lol
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
They've been seperated by 3 Slams since 2014 where it was 14-17. It's 4 years later and the gap is still relatively the same at 16-20. Nadal apparently is unable to close the gap. RG is probably going to be his most important tournament this year and that's just to get the gap back to within 3. Then they go to grass where Federer is the considerable favourite. And the way it's looking, Federer might be a very difficult hurdle for anyone to beat at USO this year and AO next year. He'll for sure be in better physical shape for USO as his back gave him issues last year.
Pretty much this.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Yeah, Nadal definitely follows that one great year, one bad year routine quite often but the guy has come back so many times now after being written off that I have to respect that.

Nadal's body breaking down and Fed's age stopping him from contending for slams was supposed to happen for quite a while now. This is a different era compared to the 90s/early 2000s where it was rare to see a player past 30, surgeries were usually ending careers and young guns were chasing down aging stars/legends like a pack of wild dogs.

Fedal are like Jason and Freddy Kruger at this point, they always come back no matter how many times they get dropped. Of course it will end eventually but I don't think it's easy to predict when.
Yes, you have to respect it, but by the same account, so has Federer. Federer is not like Sampras, a fixed target, he is a moving target, which is moving in the wrong direction for Nadal. For me, Federer has a much bigger chance to win one more, than Nadal winning another five.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Yes, you have to respect it, but by the same account, so has Federer. Federer is not like Sampras, a fixed target, he is a moving target, which is moving in the wrong direction for Nadal. For me, Federer has a much bigger chance to win one more, than Nadal winning another five.
Sure, putting it like that it's hard to disagree.

Just saying that this past decade has seen enough twists and turns to make one's head spin. Just when you think everything points into one direction something completely unexpected happens (well aside from the young guns, they have consistently underperformed so far).
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
Seeing Nadal scrambling for that YE #1 gives a good idea of how this matter will be resolved.

Either when Nadal retires or if Federer wins a couple more and Nadal doesn't this year ( if Federer wins a couple more at any given time and Nadal wins more, but starting from next year, I don't consider it probable that Nadal will surpass Federer).

Of course, none of this matters as Federer will play until he and his family decides to stop, regardless of what Nadal does.

:cool:
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Sure, putting it like that it's hard to disagree.

Just saying that this past decade has seen enough twists and turns to make one's head spin. Just when you think everything points into one direction something completely unexpected happens (well aside from the young guns, they have consistently underperformed so far).
Well, everything is technically possible if we follow that route. A career ending injury to Fedal, a player like Shaps coming into his own and shutting Fedal out completely. Numerous things are possible, however, we are discussing what is has the highest possiblity of happening, and in that scenario, Fed winning one more is more likely.

Also any injury time that Nadal has only benefits Federer, it means more time lost for an increasingly growing older Nadal. Nadal cannot go full throttle anymore for long periods of time. In fact after 2012, he has been missing large chunks of the season, including a couple of slams. I don't see him being a super consistent beast for the two or three years without more setbacks. And it is not all in his hands, as long as Fed still lives on the tour.
 

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
Can anyone just imagine how crazy the scene would be if it got tight in the race and it somehow came down to Federer and Nadal in a final to settle it all? Probably won't happen that way. More than likely it won't get close enough, won't be playing each other, or Federer is retired so Nadal faces a young gun.
 

ChrisRF

Hall of Fame
That’s a fallacy because a Next Gen player doesn’t even make far enough in a GS draw to face a big 4 player so Nadal and Djokovic not being there won’t make a difference.
I strongly believe he didn’t meant it happening directly from now on, but he rather talked about a situation emerging in a few years. If we look at the current new generation which really doesn't have a promising player in it, there could very well emerge one talented guy (probably around 15 years old today) who is way better than everyone everywhere.

And he doesn’t even have to be another Federer, but just someone who wipes the floor with the Zverevs of this world.
 
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