When Fed's Slam record will be TRULY safe?

How many?


  • Total voters
    118

Shaolin

G.O.A.T.
20 is safe.

Even if Rafa wins 4 more he will have to do it by stacking more RG titles to the pile which just makes his career look more desperately clay dependent.
 

maratha_warrior

Hall of Fame
If Novak doesn't return to Top form, then Nadal has no competition for next 2-3 years.
People are underestimating Nadal .Guy has lost 1 Slam Match to federer in 11 years and ppl think Fed is his boss at Slams now..
 

Phoenix1983

G.O.A.T.
Nadal will probably win the next 3 RG and he might sneak in another slam or two in the next few years.

So I’d say 23-24 should keep Fed safe.
Yes, I kind of went with this logic as well - just assumed Nadal would win RG until he is 35 (which gives him another 4 slams there), then would sneak out another slam somewhere else - one more AO or USO.

Thus I think 22 slams should seal it for Fed.
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
If Novak doesn't return to Top form, then Nadal has no competition for next 2-3 years.
And yet, look what happened at AO when he faced his first top 25 at a slam since RG. He lost. Depending on the surface, "no competition" doesn't always have the same meaning as far as Nadal is concerned. He sure doesn't need to face world-beaters at AO, USO or Wimbledon to be in danger of going out.

As to the OP, Nadal never really was in a position to threaten the record, he still isn't, and barring a major miracle (for him), he never will be. Neither is Djokovic. His curse was winning RG, that cut his legs from under him, a la Wilander in '88.
 

maratha_warrior

Hall of Fame
And yet, look what happened at AO when he faced his first top 25 at a slam since RG. He lost. Depending on the surface, "no competition" doesn't always have the same meaning as far as Nadal is concerned. He sure doesn't need to face world-beaters at AO, USO or Wimbledon to be in danger of going out.

As to the OP, Nadal never really was in a position to threaten the record, he still isn't, and barring a major miracle (for him), he never will be. Neither is Djokovic. His curse was winning RG, that cut his legs from under him, a la Wilander in '88.
Both Djokovic and Rafa were very much contenders for Slam record till RG2016. Nole had 12 and Rafa had 14 n fed 17 .
But Nole lost focus n got injured in 2017 till now.
Fed n rafa took the opportunity and won slams in 2017.
And Fed was always frontrunner. Like Fed already had 12 slam before Novak won his 1st (12- entire djokovic career ) and bfor Rafa won his 1st oder than RG ..
To win 12 and 16slams after dat is epic.
And both r yet not done. Let's see what the future beholds.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
If Novak doesn't return to Top form, then Nadal has no competition for next 2-3 years.
People are underestimating Nadal .Guy has lost 1 Slam Match to federer in 11 years and ppl think Fed is his boss at Slams now..
He kinda is. He has won 3 of the last 5 slams. He has won more slams than Nadal since last year.

And he has only lost 1 because he hasn't met Fed at the AO this year.
 

maratha_warrior

Hall of Fame
Faster AO it is Federer. Assuming he keeps playing at this level.

But we're not talking only about Federer here. Nadal's losses in slams after the AO last year haven't been to Federer.
Well i dont know abt faster or slower court but Rafa is big match player . He took Fed to 5 sets last yr .. N was break up.. Took peak joker to 5sets in 2012 too.. Infact dis year fed played average in final . Rafa or Nole wud have taken advantage of him. Cilic failed .
 

fedtennisphan

Hall of Fame
Well i dont know abt faster or slower court but Rafa is big match player . He took Fed to 5 sets last yr .. N was break up.. Took peak joker to 5sets in 2012 too.. Infact dis year fed played average in final . Rafa or Nole wud have taken advantage of him. Cilic failed .
You can get off the Nadal and Djokovic bandwagon as well because they failed along with Cilic.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
But would it surprise you that from now on Federer end up winning more slam than Nadal ?

Rosewall who was 36 won 3 majors between 1970-72, but Laver last major win was in 1969 and he's 4 years younger than Rosewall.

Perhaps Federer could further extend his 4 slam lead over Nadal by the the time they both retire.
 

Marfrilau

Rookie
Why do people assume that Nadal is a lock for RG until he retires? He "only" has about 75% winning percentage since winning there the first time until this year. While that's VERY impressive it's not 100%. Why would he have a better strike rate in his twilight years?

Also remember that historically it hasn't been Federer and Djokovic that have stopped him from winning slams but instead the field. So no one specific has to step up to stop him.
 

Appels

New User
Yeah, Nadal definitely follows that one great year, one bad year routine quite often but the guy has come back so many times now after being written off that I have to respect that.

Nadal's body breaking down and Fed's age stopping him from contending for slams was supposed to happen for quite a while now. This is a different era compared to the 90s/early 2000s where it was rare to see a player past 30, surgeries were usually ending careers and young guns were chasing down aging stars/legends like a pack of wild dogs.

Fedal are like Jason and Freddy Kruger at this point, they always come back no matter how many times they get dropped. Of course it will end eventually but I don't think it's easy to predict when.
That last part made me LOL!
 

fedfan39

Rookie
The safe number depends upon Fed himself.

For the worst case scenario on the clay (from Fed's perspective), let's give Nadal the next 4 FOs. That gives Nadal 20 slams.

To safeguard his record, Fed requires Nadal *not to win any additional slams* outside of the FOs. Or if he wins them anyway, minimize that number.

The easiest way to go about it is to win the slam himself. Every non-FO slam Fed wins prevents Nadal from winning that slam, so it has a *double effect*.

We could see it illustrated at the USO last year. Had Fed won the USO, he would be sitting on the 21-15 edge right now (+6 instead of +4).

The tough part is that it is hard to predict how many slams Nadal will win outside of the FO. Considering the worst case scenario on the clay courts, I personally feel 24 is a safe number for Fed. And it doesn't just stop there; he should win those slams now (2018/19) as the clock is ticking for Nadal too, and each slam Fed snatches away from Nadal means lost opportunity for an aging Nadal.

Assuming Fed will remain competitive till 2019, there are 5 non clay slams remaining, and to really safeguard the slam record, Fed would have to win 4 of them. In the worst case scenario if Nadal takes the remaining non clay slam, Fed would have a 24-19 edge on Nadal at the end of 2019. Nadal would be approaching 34 years of age at that time, and I do not believe he would win 5 slams anymore.

Of course, I personally do not believe Fed will need 24 slams really. However we need to remember that at one point, Fed himself had stated his goal was to retire with 20 slams. Well, here we are...and Fed's slam lead is *still not safe*!
 

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
Have you seen the current crop of young guns? Or the empty desert that is CC field?

You'll know the final slam tally once Fedal retire, considering the race over before that is just wishful thinking.
It's that empty desert that is the CC field which is so stark right now. Hard to make much sense of it other than it's bad.
 

tenisdecente

Hall of Fame
I think the record is safe but with 22 I would say it is almost impossible to tie. Nadal wont win Wimbledon again, and with a lot of luck win 1 additional GS besides RG in the next two years. So that would be still 22-20. I dont see Nadal winning RG in 2020. That would be crazy
 

Rafa the King

Hall of Fame
This is why I said, if Nadal fails this RG it is over. Or if he wins and Federer wins W, it is over. If Nadal wins RG, and Federer does not win W, then, the chance still is there.
If we have a repeat of last year in terms of slam winners it ain't over
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
2018 will answer a lot of questions regarding the GOAT race. Fed might shut it down for good this year.

We'll see.
 

Stratsworth

Rookie
I think extending his slam record is his prime motivation to continue playing.
This grossly simplified & inaccurate statement is repeated way too often & contradicts what we know about champions like Fed & Nads.

The most consistent player of all time (74 out of 77 slams over a 20 yr period) does not continue playing for 'more slams' - especially when he's still at the top of his game, stacking titles left & right, & having fun to boot.

Extending a 4-slam lead over an injury-plagued 31 yr old is not a primary motivator. Nadal (being Nadal) could certainly close that gap; nevertheless, the odds are not in his favor. Winning slams is far from easy, no matter how easy they make it look.

Fed plays for the same reason he's always played - he loves (and is obsessed with) the game & with competing. You could also say winning, but amassing titles are merely a byproduct of these motivators. I've spoken with too many aging rock stars who don't need the money but continue to tour b/c that's what they do and who they are.

Fed will step down when retirement becomes more attractive than playing.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Well i dont know abt faster or slower court but Rafa is big match player . He took Fed to 5 sets last yr .. N was break up.. Took peak joker to 5sets in 2012 too.. Infact dis year fed played average in final . Rafa or Nole wud have taken advantage of him. Cilic failed .
this year's nole would've been beaten in 4 sets, tops. couldn't even get a set off Chung, FFS.

Nadal would've been beaten in 4 sets, tops, under the indoor conditions.

nadal was playing average in the schwartzmann and cilic matches too. Even outdoor , in that form, fed would've beaten him.
 
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The problem for Nadal is that he can realistically only win two slams a year - French and US Open. History tells us he ain't winning the Aust Open or Wimbledon ever again. Nadal won't string together another 2-3 seasons of high quality tennis. He hasn't in the past - he won't in his twilight years. I think they will finish up Federer - 22 slams, Nadal - 18 slams.
 

Sudacafan

G.O.A.T.
I mean truly safe from Nadal? Djokovic is out of race now. So if Nadal fails, his record going to stand for a decade at least (might stand for many decades to come). But Toni just declared their intention to fight for record till the end. As far as Nadal remains lock for FO, I don't see it being unrealistic goal.

How many Slams in your opinion Federer needs to get so there will be no threat of Nadal equalling/surpassing it? Vote.

I say 23.
Both GS and H2H records are safe, and the latter is safer.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Nope not really, not in terms of sustaining energy and vigour for the full duration of RG. Inefficient.
He usually dominates the lower ranked players though. So doesn't waste much time (which in turn reduces effort).
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Well i dont know abt faster or slower court but Rafa is big match player . He took Fed to 5 sets last yr .. N was break up.. Took peak joker to 5sets in 2012 too.. Infact dis year fed played average in final . Rafa or Nole wud have taken advantage of him. Cilic failed .
The Djokovic we saw at the AO 2018? Federer would have straight-setted that Djokovic. As for Nadal, anything is possible but on this quicker, lower bouncing surface, I doubt Nadal would have defeated Federer.
 

EdSWright

Professional
The last 12 months may prove to be a dead cat bounce for those two. Time for a younger, fitter person to endure.
 

Julian Houston

Semi-Pro
Well i dont know abt faster or slower court but Rafa is big match player . He took Fed to 5 sets last yr .. N was break up.. Took peak joker to 5sets in 2012 too.. Infact dis year fed played average in final . Rafa or Nole wud have taken advantage of him. Cilic failed .
Nope haha, Cilic is more dangerous opponent than Nadal and Nole.

Even if peak Nadal and Nole against Fed's on this fast AO surface and new racquet, Fed will win it more often.
 

ghostofMecir

Hall of Fame
Well i dont know abt faster or slower court but Rafa is big match player . He took Fed to 5 sets last yr .. N was break up.. Took peak joker to 5sets in 2012 too.. Infact dis year fed played average in final . Rafa or Nole wud have taken advantage of him. Cilic failed .
Good lord. This is akin to being asked what yesterday’s beautiful sunset looked like and someone winds up describing lamp being turned on. Just completely wrong.
 
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