When Fed's Slam record will be TRULY safe?

How many?


  • Total voters
    118

Subway Tennis

Hall of Fame
I think it will be hard for Federer to catch Serena's major record.

In terms of Federer's major count, his total isn't safe even from players in his own generation, so it's a pretty precarious major record in men's tennis terms. As strange as that seems......

If Nadal doesn't catch it we will most likely see someone 2-3 generations from now (15-20 years) start to get close.
 

Julian Houston

Semi-Pro
The problem for Nadal is that he can realistically only win two slams a year - French and US Open. History tells us he ain't winning the Aust Open or Wimbledon ever again. Nadal won't string together another 2-3 seasons of high quality tennis. He hasn't in the past - he won't in his twilight years. I think they will finish up Federer - 22 slams, Nadal - 18 slams.
Nadal was lucky last year in USO with easiest draw in history. I'm pretty sure it will not happen again and Federer fixed his mistake last year to be fully fit.
 

fedtennisphan

Hall of Fame
I think it will be hard for Federer to catch Serena's major record.

In terms of Federer's major count, his total isn't safe even from players in his own generation, so it's a pretty precarious major record in men's tennis terms. As strange as that seems......

If Nadal doesn't catch it we will most likely see someone 2-3 generations from now (15-20 years) start to get close.
Not buying that at all. Until that player starts to get close it’s a dead issue. These types of proclamations sound more like wishful thinking than anything.
 
Never. The greatest player may yet be to debut-they might win their first slam at 17 or 18 & end up winning 40 or 50. Records are there to be broken & most of them eventually are.
 

D.Nalby12

Legend
Nadal keeps Slam race alive winning RG again and again. Since 2011 he has won it 6/8 years. While he gets a non RG occasionally (once in every four years) to close the gap.
 

D.Nalby12

Legend
Fortunately for Fedr, speeding up AO surface really worked in his favor. Now he has two great opportunities to pick Slam every year as opposed to just one during 2011-16 period.
 

Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
I don't think Rafa will reach 20. 18 or 19 is the maximum.
Hmm, what are you basing that on? How long can Federer keep winning? If he doesn't win Wimbledon, then all bets are off.

The biggest problem as I see it is the lack of younger ATG players to stop Nadal. Federer has been unlucky in this regard. The guys who chased him are now getting a free pass. It unfair.
 
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Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
Fortunately for Fedr, speeding up AO surface really worked in his favor. Now he has two great opportunities to pick Slam every year as opposed to just one during 2011-16 period.
But, he's almost 37. I feel like he has to win Wimbledon to get some breathing room @Hitman?
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Just like we thought he would "never" reach 17 when he had 14 Slams. Adding 3 Slams post 31 considered unthinkable for grinder.

In actual it took him just 12 brilliant months and little more to jump from 14 to 17.

And again we think he can't get 20 when he has 17.
Four years ago, Nadal was three slams behind Federer when he won RG 2014...he hurt his chances massively by not winning anything for nearly three years, and then allowing Federer to win AO 2017, and not even making the AO 2018 final. So far, with all the amazing work Nadal has done, he has only managed to keep pace with Federer, not actually win slams faster than him. The only good thing is, he has kept himself in the race, the bad news is, he is 32, not 28 and he is carrying a lot of wear and tear...Nadal almost skipped seven to eight months of tennis to get ready for clay, he is starting to show some age now. Every slam Federer wins, Nadal must counter with a win, do not assume he will keep winning into his late 30s...he needs to stop Federer now.
 

Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
Four years ago, Nadal was three slams behind Federer when he won RG 2014...he hurt his chances massively by not winning anything for nearly three years, and then allowing Federer to win AO 2017, and not even making the AO 2018 final. So far, with all the amazing work Nadal has done, he has only managed to keep pace with Federer, not actually win slams faster than him. The only good thing is, he has kept himself in the race, the bad news is, he is 32, not 28 and he is carrying a lot of wear and tear...Nadal almost skipped seven to eight months of tennis to get ready for clay, he is starting to show some age now. Every slam Federer wins, Nadal must counter with a win, do not assume he will keep winning into his late 30s...he needs to stop Federer now.
I agree with almost everything. But Nadal is been very strategic. Taking breaks to rejuvenate. Of course he knows the younger players suck. I think that's the biggest thing he has going for him at the moment.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
We shall see. Hope Federer stays calm and not play "angrily and desperately" like someone suggested he would.;)
Angry? LOL

I doubt it. I think Federer mentally accepts that Nadal is winning RG every year, which just allows him to focus on winning on grass. Federer knows his best on grass is better than anyone else's and if he wins there, then Nadal has to win again just to keep up. I do not think anyone is stopping Federer at W this year, I am sure he is picking his 9th title there next month.
 

D.Nalby12

Legend
Four years ago, Nadal was three slams behind Federer when he won RG 2014...he hurt his chances massively by not winning anything for nearly three years, and then allowing Federer to win AO 2017, and not even making the AO 2018 final. So far, with all the amazing work Nadal has done, he has only managed to keep pace with Federer, not actually win slams faster than him. The only good thing is, he has kept himself in the race, the bad news is, he is 32, not 28 and he is carrying a lot of wear and tear...Nadal almost skipped seven to eight months of tennis to get ready for clay, he is starting to show some age now. Every slam Federer wins, Nadal must counter with a win, do not assume he will keep winning into his late 30s...he needs to stop Federer now.
Nadal has time on his side though. His longevity second best to Fedr. He is likely to stay at the top for 2-3 years to come.

I had doubts about this but he convinced me winning three more Slams.
 

Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
Angry? LOL

I doubt it. I think Federer mentally accepts that Nadal is winning RG every year, which just allows him to focus on winning on grass. Federer knows his best on grass is better than anyone else's and if he wins there, then Nadal has to win again just to keep up. I do not think anyone is stopping Federer at W this year, I am sure he is picking his 9th title there next month.
You know, some psychic Nadal fan said that's how Federer will play at Wimbledon after the RG win.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
I agree with almost everything. But Nadal is been very strategic. Taking breaks to rejuvenate. Of course he knows the younger players suck. I think that's the biggest thing he has going for him at the moment.
The only strategy Nadal took was not playing IW and Miami, hardly very strategic. Nadal needs to play matches to build up his form, he is not like Federer who can stop and start much quicker. The clay season allows Nadal to build his game up, but remember, he will be playing a full season because he does not want his ranking to fall down too much either.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Nadal has time on his side though. His longevity second best to Fedr. He is likely to stay at the top for 2-3 years to come.

I had doubts about this but he convinced me winning three more Slams.
Look what happened to Djokovic. Heck, look what happened to Nadal himself after RG 2014, after US 2013 everyone, including myself thought he was getting the record, he was 27 years old, and still in his prime. He loses in dramatic fashion to Wawrinka at AO, which hurt his chance, wins RG barely and then out of the game for three years. Things change very quickly. He was meant to have already had the record by now, not still be chasing it and having the slam gap the same as it was four years ago. He needs to strike now, not in the next few years, nothing is a given in this sport.
 

Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
The only strategy Nadal took was not playing IW and Miami, hardly very strategic. Nadal needs to play matches to build up his form, he is not like Federer who can stop and start much quicker. The clay season allows Nadal to build his game up, but remember, he will be playing a full season because he does not want his ranking to fall down too much either.
The rest of the season should be intriguing, no?
 

Lebsta

Rookie
Last year I thought the AO17 loss ultimately cost Rafa the chance to overtake Roger. 16 months on I cautiously stand by that statement. Had we won we'd be at a scarily intense 19-18, which indicates that it's still possible for Rafa to do it.

A lot of it depends more on Rafa that it does Roger. Rafa has the 5 year age gap but of course his style is far more physically taxing. Rafa will 100% have to start being smarter with his schedule prioritising solely on the slams. He also has to finish points earlier with more aggression.

Realistically a 100% fit an healthy Rafa wins 2-3 French Opens minimum. Seriously who is beating him there? He's still capable at both AO and US Open so the most optimistic forecast says Nadal can win 5 more slams maximum.

On this basis I would say Roger getting to 23 makes the record safe. As many have stated a lot of other variables can change the way of things (Novak resurgence ,Thiem / Zverev finally breaking through) but if the tour stays as it is and neither player gets injured, then 23 would secure the record. There is also the argument that does Rafa just need to tie Roger with a few more non clay slams which of course will be backed up with the still lopsided H2H.

God help tennis when they both leave the game.
 

D.Nalby12

Legend
The only strategy Nadal took was not playing IW and Miami, hardly very strategic. Nadal needs to play matches to build up his form, he is not like Federer who can stop and start much quicker. The clay season allows Nadal to build his game up, but remember, he will be playing a full season because he does not want his ranking to fall down too much either.
Nadal' pattern is just too obvious -

1. Multiple Slam year (with failing/skipping post USO season)
2. Fails everywhere next season except on clay. Wins French and skips most events in second half. Recharges his batteries.
3. Comes back strong next season from very first tournament. Wins multiple Slams.
4. Repeat 2 and 4.

Going by this pattern, he is having quite successful season post multi Slam season (2017). He might well skjp everything post Wimbledon but be sure he will come back very strong in 2019.

With this process he spends 6 months sitting outside in span of 24 months. Wins 3 Slams (2 FO + 1 other) in that period. By this rate Nadal should hit 20 at FO 2020.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal' pattern is just too obvious -

1. Multiple Slam year (with failing/skipping post USO season)
2. Fails everywhere next season except on clay. Wins French and skips most events in second half.
3. Comes back strong next season from very first tournament. Wins multiple Slams.
4. Repeat 2 and 4.

Going by this pattern, he is having quite successful season post multi Slam season (2017). He might well skjp everything post Wimbledon but be sure he will come back very strong in 2019.

With this process he spends 6 months sitting outside in span of 24 months. Wins 3 Slams (2 FO + 1 other) in that period. By this rate Nadal should hit 20 at FO 2020.

He won the USO last year! Who's going to beat him there if Federer doesn't? Del Potro? :rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Nadal' pattern is just too obvious -

1. Multiple Slam year (with failing/skipping post USO season)
2. Fails everywhere next season except on clay. Wins French and skips most events in second half. Recharges his batteries.
3. Comes back strong next season from very first tournament. Wins multiple Slams.
4. Repeat 2 and 4.

Going by this pattern, he is having quite successful season post multi Slam season (2017). He might well skjp everything post Wimbledon but be sure he will come back very strong in 2019.

With this process he spends 6 months sitting outside in span of 24 months. Wins 3 Slams (2 FO + 1 other) in that period. By this rate Nadal should hit 20 at FO 2020.
Since 2014, he has had one multi slam year and that was last year. It is not every other year.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Just about anybody in the top 15 tbh (and many outside of it as well). Nadal would be a favourite against most of them, but against the field as a whole he most certainly isn’t.
In theory, that's true but I'll believe it when I see it. You can understand my current skepticism.

Marat Safin has this to say about the young players:

" I do not want to offend, but the level is mediocre, except for Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Old men of 37 years can still play because no one presses them. Young people used to beat you right away and now they are not good until they are 25 years old. There is a downturn."

"In our generation, if at 18 you had not won an ATP tournament, you were not worth it. Now you win at 23 and you're a little star."

"Alexander Zverev is very good, Thiem too, but German is the one that stands out the most. I also go Kyrgios. If you tune your head you can be an incredible player."

https://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=https://as.com/tenis/2018/06/09/roland_garros/1528572622_923657.html&prev=search
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
In theory, that's true but I'll believe it when I see it. You can understand my current skepticism.

Marat Safin has this to say about the young players:




https://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=https://as.com/tenis/2018/06/09/roland_garros/1528572622_923657.html&prev=search
I’m not sure I can, tbh :p Nadal loses to lots of players on HC, often unsung players. He might win the US Open indeed, but it’s a bit of a long shot. Last year he was the beneficiary of a historically weak draw, and he’s won 2 of his last 40 HC tournaments.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
I’m not sure I can, tbh :p Nadal loses to lots of players on HC, often unsung players. He might win the US Open indeed, but it’s a bit of a long shot. Last year he was the beneficiary of a historically weak draw.
That's all true but at the same time, he's won more USO titles in the past decade than any other current player. Many people seem to forget that small detail. Federer hasn't won it in 10 years, Djokovic's underachieved there given his hc pedigree.
 

papertank

Hall of Fame
We are really just in uncharted territory with Nadal and Federer. There is no telling when they are going to stop winning. They are virtual gods of the sport at this point. By now it's not even about how well they are playing, it's the fact they are hardened by 15 years of play at the very top of the sport. How in the world is Thiem, a first time GS finalist, supposed to compete with Nadal who has been in that situation 24 times and has a 10-0 record at the French? How is Hyeon Chung supposed to beat Federer in his first GS semifinal appearance when Federer has been there 43 times?! It's just a ridiculous mismatch of experience. Everything that one of these next gen players could throw at Nadal or Federer, they have already experienced countless times.

For this reason I think right now we really have no idea what the "safe" number of slams Federer will need to be safe from Nadal is. Either of them could hang it up next year or they could go on to win slams for the next 3 years. It's impossible to know because there is no precedent for this.

The most likely option to stop them I believe is a Djokovic/Murray resurgence. I'd bet on that sooner than I'd bet on the next gen.
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
That's all true but at the same time, he's won more USO titles in the past decade than any other current player. Many people seem to forget that small detail. Federer hasn't won it in 10 years, Djokovic's underachieved there given his hc pedigree.

Two of those wins are before his HC drought started in 2014, and one was last year which was anomalous in many ways.

Anyhow, I think Nadal has won his last HC slam. I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t think I am here.
 
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