When will Federer realistically retire?

Qubax

Professional
#1
And how do we define retirment?

I have said this many times and very few humor me as it sounds outlandish - BUT, I think for all intents and purposes Federer will never truly retire.

Here's how I see it.

Fed plays through to 2020 for Basel and the Olympics. He still gets himself to the Semis or so of Wimbledon even in 2019 or 2020.

Those sorts of results help Fed to stay motivated and help to support the pillars of him continuing - Family Allows it, Body Allows it, Results are there, Competitive Fire is still there.

All of a sudden Federer is 1 year from being 40 and is pulled by that next goal of being Top 10-15ish at 40.

Once Fed is 40, his daughters will be 12 years old. By the time the better daughter is 15 she and Grandpa Fed can start to compete in Doubles at the Majors.

Fast forward another 4 or so years and he's doing the same thing with Leo or Lenny.

Fed will continue to do things like play relatively competitive singles Exo's with current stars, his peers Nadal, and maybe past Stars, while playing competitive mixed doubles and mens doubles on the main pro circuit especially at majors.

So in my opinion Federer playing meaningful, professional tennis is miles from being in the rearview mirror.

I could see Fed in his mid 50's playing with his mid 20's kids in main slam draws. Doing that math we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 years left of Fed at a professional level (36 years of age to 55ish)

Feel free to laugh. But this is what I believe will happen.

Federer is almost too in love of tennis for his own good (although I don't see what bad it does).
 
#4
Fed will be able to play the way he is now for a very long time. Look at older people like Ivo, whom, like Federer, has lots of natural talent/feel and can go about his business relatively easily -- nothing seems too physical. Federer is smart, has a very natural feel for the sport (obviously more-so than Ivo), and can easily apply his game to improve longevity (well placed serve, and very dangerous at the net).

Federer's a lot different from the rest of the big 4 in that sense. Everything comes so easy and fluid, and he has way more versatility. He will play as long as he doesn't decline, and that'll be for a while yet.
 
#8
Fed will be able to play the way he is now for a very long time. Look at older people like Ivo, whom, like Federer, has lots of natural talent/feel and can go about his business relatively easily.
But you fail to mention Fed has way more mileage on him than Ivo. Roger's played almost 1200 professional matches, Ivo has played 350. That is a MASSIVE difference of wear and tear to the body.
 

Qubax

Professional
#9
But you fail to mention Fed has way more mileage on him than Ivo. Roger's played almost 1200 professional matches, Ivo has played 350. That is a MASSIVE difference of wear and tear to the body.
Yes, but Fed is also way better than Ivo.

So while he likely won't win multiple slams in a year again (this year being an exception) he should be able to remain top 5 relevant and dangerous enough to remain near the top
 

Qubax

Professional
#11
The answer is very simple: when he realizes that he is not a contender for the big tournaments anymore.
and if that happens when his daughters are 12/13 and he may be a couple of years from playing serious mixed doubles with them?

What then?

I reckon we'll see Fed hang around as an ambassador of the sport, raising money for Tsunami, Hurricane victims etc.,

The could always make a legends portion of the Laver Cup which could allow him to play in that in perpetuity.
 
#17
The answer is very simple: when he realizes that he is not a contender for the big tournaments anymore.
Thanks, you put it better than I could have. The slam final losses to Djoker in 2014-15 were enough to drive a lesser mortal entirely from the game. Fed arguably should have won 2/3 of those matches (some would say 3/3).

When he starts losing before the QF's routinely at every slam, when the commentators starts speaking about him as if it's Jimbo in 1991, when there's no hope, then it's time to hang it up. As long as he has even a 25% chance of bagging another slam, Fed'll be down for it.
 
#22
It depends if he suffers another injury and is forced to sit out for another 6-7 months. Applying the logic of some Fedr fans, injury breaks prolong your career.
 
#24
It depends if he suffers another injury and is forced to sit out for another 6-7 months. Applying the logic of some Fedr fans, injury breaks prolong your career.
What about when he wasn’t injured? Even though he wasn’t winning slams in 2015-2016 he was still playing at a high rate. Or is the injury excuse only for nadal?
 
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#25
But you fail to mention Fed has way more mileage on him than Ivo. Roger's played almost 1200 professional matches, Ivo has played 350. That is a MASSIVE difference of wear and tear to the body.
The human body doesn't suffer from "wear and tear" the way you are putting it. It's not like a car after 200,000 km's the engine breaks or whatever...yes the body does "wear" after activity but it repairs/strengthens itself with adequate rest. The issue with pros getting is the recovery takes longer and it's harder to play the enormous amounts demanded by being a professional player over and over with very little rest in-between some matches.

Fed's smart he will probably just pick and choose what he plays and manage his body. But it's not like "Oh Fed's played X number of matches in his career, after playing X more his body will break down due to wear and tear". That's just not how it works despite what people will tell you.
 

Jackuar

Hall of Fame
#26
The OP points sound fair and do-able, although the numbers - I don't agree - I mean, not 55-ish but probably in the mid-40s. And I don't see him playing competitive tennis with Leo/Lenny. The daughters, possible? May be mixed doubles in about 7-8 years. Btw, did you say they'd be 12 in 3-4 years..? Wow, time flies and I feel old!!

Edit: I still think more realistically, he's retire by 2019 end. But if he chooses to play for the love of the game and like pacing it slow and easy as in OP, then probably 45-ish is doable.
 
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#27
And how do we define retirment?

I have said this many times and very few humor me as it sounds outlandish - BUT, I think for all intents and purposes Federer will never truly retire.

Here's how I see it.

Fed plays through to 2020 for Basel and the Olympics. He still gets himself to the Semis or so of Wimbledon even in 2019 or 2020.

Those sorts of results help Fed to stay motivated and help to support the pillars of him continuing - Family Allows it, Body Allows it, Results are there, Competitive Fire is still there.

All of a sudden Federer is 1 year from being 40 and is pulled by that next goal of being Top 10-15ish at 40.

Once Fed is 40, his daughters will be 12 years old. By the time the better daughter is 15 she and Grandpa Fed can start to compete in Doubles at the Majors.

Fast forward another 4 or so years and he's doing the same thing with Leo or Lenny.

Fed will continue to do things like play relatively competitive singles Exo's with current stars, his peers Nadal, and maybe past Stars, while playing competitive mixed doubles and mens doubles on the main pro circuit especially at majors.

So in my opinion Federer playing meaningful, professional tennis is miles from being in the rearview mirror.

I could see Fed in his mid 50's playing with his mid 20's kids in main slam draws. Doing that math we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 years left of Fed at a professional level (36 years of age to 55ish)

Feel free to laugh. But this is what I believe will happen.

Federer is almost too in love of tennis for his own good (although I don't see what bad it does).
I guess after 2019 USO !!!
 

Jackuar

Hall of Fame
#32
On further thoughts, second post.
Fed plays through to 2020 for Basel and the Olympics. He still gets himself to the Semis or so of Wimbledon even in 2019 or 2020.
Possible, and even probable. I wouldn't be surprised if he stretches that last mile to reach another Olympics.

..... Family Allows it, Body Allows it, Results are there, Competitive Fire is still there.
Family -- let's see. Once the daughters start "talking", he'll know what's priority. Body and Results - never a guarantee. Competitive fire - useless without the other two.

All of a sudden Federer is 1 year from being 40 and is pulled by that next goal of being Top 10-15ish at 40.
Being top 10-15 is never a Federer goal. Heck, even No.1 is not his goal right now.

Once Fed is 40, his daughters will be 12 years old. By the time the better daughter is 15 she and Grandpa Fed can start to compete in Doubles at the Majors. Fast forward another 4 or so years and he's doing the same thing with Leo or Lenny. Fed will continue to do things like play relatively competitive singles Exo's with current stars, his peers Nadal, and maybe past Stars, while playing competitive mixed doubles and mens doubles on the main pro circuit especially at majors..
Sounds nice, but practically, its a long shot. But in current generation of competitive top play, no one else will have better chance to live life like this than Fed.

I could see Fed in his mid 50's playing with his mid 20's kids in main slam draws. Doing that math we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 years left of Fed at a professional level (36 years of age to 55ish).
50-s, nope. 45, at max. He ain't playing with the boys. The daughters have some hope. They better start practicing right now if they haven't already.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
#35

Yoneyama

Professional
#40
Whenever it is, he will definitely retire on a high note. I doubt he will retire after letting himself sink 100s of ranks like some of the other greats who are on their way out of late (Haas, Robredo to name a few).
 
#44
As much as people try to tie-in Federer's retirement with age, I think age in his case isn't really a factor. Federer still loves the game after all these years which is amazing. As long as he'll believe he's got a legit shot at the big tournaments, he will play I think. The more he ages, the more prone he'll be to injuries, so in that regard his body could "give up" before he feels like it, but he's usually smart about his scheduling and taking care of himself, so I don't see why he wouldn't be able to squeeze out a few more years on tour and stay relevant. Let's face it, he doesn't really have any incentives to retire or even think about it right now. At 36, he still won 2 majors and a few MS-1000, #2 in the world and close to being #1, he's still very much a factor. He and Nadal are still the "main eventers" that can sellout tournaments, so the ATP needs them He's practically worshiped everywhere he goes, always has "home" court advantage against whoever he plays, while also making outrageous amount of money. If I'm Roger Federer, I'd probably hang on to all of this as much as I can because when it's all said and done, I will probably miss it.
 
#47
1-2 years max..

Fed's body will not hold up for any longer than 2 years .. I expect an injury (most probably a back injury) to call it off for him.

I'm a fan .. I absolutely LOVE for him to be healthy and to continue to play till the end of time, but it's just not gonna happen.

He himself realizes that and even said recently something like "I don't get up in the morning with the same feeling I used to have when I was younger"

and "you should see how I feel/look now in the 1st 5 minutes after waking up" ..

It's sad .. but it's real :(
 
#48
He himself realizes that and even said recently something like "I don't get up in the morning with the same feeling I used to have when I was younger"

and "you should see how I feel/look now in the 1st 5 minutes after waking up" ..

It's sad .. but it's real :(
Happens to many after a night of changing diapers and taking someone to the potty at 2 AM and 4 AM.
:confused:
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
#50
It can happen any year.
The thing that declines most profoundly is recovery and constistency.

If the recovery becomes in Slams even if he doesn't play long matches then it's over.
 
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