When will rune make the first slam final

[nolefam_2024]

There are far too many players who didn't make slam final until they are 23/24. Even sinner made his first slam final in 2024 AO after turning 22.

Zverev made it when he turned 23. Tsitsipas when he turned 23.

Rune is portrayed to be part of the next triumvirate including Raz and Sinner. But aside from his crazy run 2 years back he has not done much. He is good at slams getting to QF multiple times but when will he get to a slam final?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Andy Murray made his first slam final at age 21 and 4 months.

Since then these are the finalists ages.
Delpo almost 21
Soderling 24
Berdych 24
Wawrinka 28
Cilic 25
Nishikori 24
Raonic 25
Thiem 24
Anderson 27
Medvedev 23
Zverev 23
Tsitsipas 23
Berrettini 25
Ruud 23
Kyrgios 27
Alcaraz 19
Sinner 22


Clearly alcaraz is huge outlier and normal age to make a final post Delpo is 23 to 25.

Anyone making the final post 25 is going to be almost a freak show. Only exception is Wawrinka who won 3 slams post age 28. And 0 finals before.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Rune has played 3 slam qf already. Andy Murray had 0 at the same age. While Federer had reached 2 qf at the same age.

 

[TheSlicer]

Cant see It this year, but Who knows, his highest level has been indoors when he was serving like crazy and being very consistent, hes also great on Clay, the thing is that when his serve is not on fire, he doesnt have a huge weapon, his backhand is amazing but not a match decider against top guys in my opinion, he is quite complete, the only thing that to me needs to be more dangerous IS the forehand, i dont like his technique there and he is quite conservative with it most of the times, to me, just as Alcaraz, he needs time because he is a complete player, so he needs to mature his game and find diferent aproaches, with complete players it seems that the gameplan is not very obvious sometimes and young guys have problems with that, i love his mentality tough, thats why i believe he will eventually put all together and find a great form

 

[Mark-Touch]

I don't know, but I think BeatlesFan would be he most reliable source for getting this information.

 

[-NN-]

I don't know, but I think BeatlesFan would be he most reliable source for getting this information.

Good track record of predictions?

 

[nolefam_2024]

@dking68 has there ever been an atg who didn't make slam final until age 22? We kept tabs on sinner but now it's for rune to prove. He will turn 21 before RG.

 

[dking68]

Rune has played 3 slam qf already. Andy Murray had 0 at the same age. While Federer had reached 2 qf at the same age.

Definitely not on hard courts any time soon. Definitely not on grass. Only clay, and it’s not happening this year or next year. So earliest 2026

 

[dking68]

@nolefam_2024 its a bad sign for Rune. Sinner is ahead of Murray at 22. Rune is not making a final before he’s 22 and he’s not winning a major at 22 or even dare I say 23. By time Rune is 22, Sinner is having goat seasons.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Definitely not on hard courts any time soon. Definitely not on grass. Only clay, and it’s not happening this year or next year. So earliest 2026

I too think this year is impossible for him. The tour is stronger than 2023 and much more stronger than 2022.

 

[nolefam_2024]

So is rune just not good enough or what? He did reach 2 qf back to back last year. But was horrible in both matches.

 

[dking68]

So is rune just not good enough or what? He did reach 2 qf back to back last year. But was horrible in both matches.

Just not good enough imo. Sinner had the firepower. If Sinner had converted break points better in AO 2023 he would’ve defeated Tsitsipas and made his first slam final there.

 

[Mark-Touch]

Good track record of predictions?

I'm not sure, but good track record for passionate responses.

 

[Razer]

Rune will probably make a slam final by 2026. He has a lot of ground to cover before he reaches a Final. I dont think it is happening even in 2025, but then who knows.... predicting next year is tough anyway. I am keeping 2026 as a safe limit.

 

[TheSlicer]

@nolefam_2024 its a bad sign for Rune. Sinner is ahead of Murray at 22. Rune is not making a final before he’s 22 and he’s not winning a major at 22 or even dare I say 23. By time Rune is 22, Sinner is having goat seasons.

Unbelievable how youre able to predict whats gonna happen in 3 years time, your powers never cease to amaze me

 

[nolefam_2024]

@nolefam_2024 its a bad sign for Rune. Sinner is ahead of Murray at 22. Rune is not making a final before he’s 22 and he’s not winning a major at 22 or even dare I say 23. By time Rune is 22, Sinner is having goat seasons.

I never thought Andy Murray is ATG in any other era, but he seem to be supremely fit in early career. 2 retirements in whole career. Now with AO win, Sinner is ahead of Andy decisively. But until this AO Andy was better. Won 4 masters and made USO final at age 21.

 

[Mark-Touch]

Anything is possible with Rune.
He could have a Lendl-like career.
Reaching his first slam final at age 21 and then not win a slam until age 25. 24.

That's why I always say patience is a virtue for TTW members.

 

[dking68]

Anything is possible with Rune.
He could have a Lendl-like career.
Reaching his first slam final at age 21 and then not win a slam until age 25.

That's why I always say patience is a virtue for TTW members.

Lendl won at 24 FYI

 

[nolefam_2024]

Anything is possible with Rune.
He could have a Lendl-like career.
Reaching his first slam final at age 21 and then not win a slam until age 25.

That's why I always say patience is a virtue for TTW members.

yes with lendl it is possible that someone not winning a slam till 24 become an atg. But lendl made his first slam final at age 21.

Have we seen any atg who didn't make slam final until age 22? Federer made first final at 21 just like Lendl. Ofcourse with age of slam winners rising, then 21 might be today's 22 or 23 who knows.

 

[dking68]

yes with lendl it is possible that someone not winning a slam till 24 become an atg. But lendl made his first slam final at age 21.

Have we seen any atg who didn't make slam final until age 22? Federer made first final at 21 just like Lendl. Ofcourse with age of slam winners rising, then 21 might be today's 22 or 23 who knows.

Sinner really choked the AO 2023 fourth round. He was the better player, but lost. But he made up for it by winning the title in 2024.

 

[dking68]

@nolefam_2024 be honest. You see Rune playing like Sinner at age 22? Sinner already had a 65% win career percentage at age 20 and Rune is massively behind at 60. That doesn’t spell for him being a future ATG

 

[nolefam_2024]

@nolefam_2024 be honest. You see Rune playing like Sinner at age 22? Sinner already had a 65% win career percentage at age 20 and Rune is massively behind at 60. That doesn’t spell for him being a future ATG

Yes I can see it. But maybe at 23. No immidiete changes expected sadly.

 

[TheSlicer]

@nolefam_2024 be honest. You see Rune playing like Sinner at age 22? Sinner already had a 65% win career percentage at age 20 and Rune is massively behind at 60. That doesn’t spell for him being a future ATG

last year he strugled a lot with injuries

 

[dking68]

last year he strugled a lot with injuries

So did sinner in his 2022 season

 

[dking68]

Yes I can see it. But maybe at 23. No immidiete changes expected sadly.

Sinner had already made an outdoor hardcourt second week at 2 slams and made Miami open final at age 19. Rune has shown nothing on outdoor hard

 

[TheSlicer]

So did sinner in his 2022 season

maybe so, but he has won a masters 1000 much earlier than sinner, and been in more finals at same age, some parts of the year he underperformed, but definetly had higher peaks than sinner at 20

 

[dking68]

maybe so, but he has won a masters 1000 much earlier than sinner, and been in more finals at same age, some parts of the year he underperformed, but definetly had higher peaks than sinner at 20

He did not. Sinner has made second week at hard court slams, was winning more matches, was 2-0 up on Nole at Wimbledon and was leading 2 sets up on him and had a lead on Rafa in his first QF. Sinner was ahead at the same age, without a doubt on grass and hard court.

 

[TheSlicer]

He did not. Sinner has made second week at hard court slams, was winning more matches, was 2-0 up on Nole at Wimbledon and was leading 2 sets up on him and had a lead on Rafa in his first QF. Sinner was ahead at the same age, without a doubt on grass and hard court.

second week is nice but you dont win crap, being 2-0 is ok, but he lost. rune actually won against djokovic in a final, and was in more finals, also his game was more complete than sinner at 20, to me he has shown higher peaks of level which have brought him titles at the same age, maybe sinner was a bit more consistent during the year tough

 

[dking68]

second week is nice but you dont win crap, being 2-0 is ok, but he lost. rune actually won against djokovic in a final, and was in more finals, also his game was more complete than sinner at 20, to me he has shown higher peaks of level which have brought him titles at the same age, maybe sinner was a bit more consistent during the year tough

Believe what you want, but I can guarantee he won’t be a slam winner at Sinners age, despite winning a masters at 19. Sinner had more room for improvement (still does) and played tennis later

 

[dking68]

second week is nice but you dont win crap, being 2-0 is ok, but he lost. rune actually won against djokovic in a final, and was in more finals, also his game was more complete than sinner at 20, to me he has shown higher peaks of level which have brought him titles at the same age, maybe sinner was a bit more consistent during the year tough

Btw in Sinners 20 year old season, he won 4 titles - 3 250s and 1 500

Rune only won 1 250 last year. Your argument is invalid. And that was thanks to a massive choke from BVDZ or else he would be titleless

 

[TheSlicer]

Believe what you want, but I can guarantee he won’t be a slam winner at Sinners age, despite winning a masters at 19. Sinner had more room for improvement (still does) and played tennis later

how could you guarantee it? lol, rune has loads of room for improvement, basically every aspect of his game has a higher cealing than what he has now, he has good phisique and good net game, god serve too, he even leads the head to head being 2 years younger

 

[dking68]

how could you guarantee it? lol, rune has loads of room for improvement, basically every aspect of his game has a higher cealing than what he has now, he has good phisique and good net game, god serve too, he even leads the head to head being 2 years younger

Zverev won 2 masters at age 20, Sinner didn’t. Who has the grand slam title? Means nothing friend. And Sinner is likely to have a vastly better career than Z

 

[dking68]

how could you guarantee it? lol, rune has loads of room for improvement, basically every aspect of his game has a higher cealing than what he has now, he has good phisique and good net game, god serve too, he even leads the head to head being 2 years younger

Oh really? Who got most improved last season?

 

[TheSlicer]

Btw in Sinners 20 year old season, he won 4 titles - 3 250s and 1 500

Rune only won 1 250 last year. Your argument is invalid. And that was thanks to a massive choke from BVDZ or else he would be titleless

you are taking sinners year when he spent half the year being 21 and at the same time taking runes year where he was 19 for half a year, lol, stop bullsh+ting

 

[dking68]

you are taking sinners year when he spent half the year being 21 and at the same time taking runes year where he was 19 for half a year, lol, stop bullsh+ting

Listen, before you speak to me, check your facts. You look idiotic. In 2021 - Sinner was 20 and won 4 titles. In 2023 - rune was 20 and won 1 title. Check your facts

 

[TheSlicer]

Zverev won 2 masters at age 20, Sinner didn’t. Who has the grand slam title? Means nothing friend. And Sinner is likely to have a vastly better career than Z

lol man, it only means something when its convenient for you, like sinner not winning a slam until 22 like federer lol, then it means he is like federer, youre such a fanatic man, you cant be objective to save your own life

 

[dking68]

lol man, it only means something when its convenient for you, like sinner not winning a slam until 22 like federer lol, then it means he is like federer, youre such a fanatic man, you cant be objective to save your own life

Does Zverev have a slam? He’s a slamless loser

 

[Pheasant]

yes with lendl it is possible that someone not winning a slam till 24 become an atg. But lendl made his first slam final at age 21.

Have we seen any atg who didn't make slam final until age 22? Federer made first final at 21 just like Lendl. Ofcourse with age of slam winners rising, then 21 might be today's 22 or 23 who knows.

I think that all of the ATG players in the Open Era played a grand slam final before their 22nd birthdays. I'd say that the closest thing we have to an ATG player during the Open Era that won a slam after his 22nd birthday would be Wawrinka.. He played his first slam final 2 months shy of his 29th birthday.

Maybe Sinner is Stan 2.0, except that he has a 6+ year head start on Stan with only 1/3 of the Big 3 in the way. His prime will likely last a lot longer than Stan's did; barring injuries. But I'm not good at predicting these things.

 

[BauerAlmeida]

I don't see it this year, next one would be my bet.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think that all of the ATG players in the Open Era played a grand slam final before their 22nd birthdays. I'd say that the closest thing we have to an ATG player during the Open Era that won a slam after his 22nd birthday would be Wawrinka.. He played his first slam final 2 months shy of his 29th birthday.

Maybe Sinner is Stan 2.0, except that he has a 6+ year head start on Stan with only 1/3 of the Big 3 in the way. His prime will likely last a lot longer than Stan's did; barring injuries. But I'm not good at predicting these things.

Yes but only 1 factor to add will be now it takes a bit more time to get physicality to win a slam. Eg. Sinner in 2023 USOpen didn't have the legs to beat Zverev (probably still won't win the open but he is improving). So Sinner will still become atg after not making a single slam final pre 22.

 

[Pheasant]

Yes but only 1 factor to add will be now it takes a bit more time to get physicality to win a slam. Eg. Sinner in 2023 USOpen didn't have the legs to beat Zverev (probably still won't win the open but he is improving). So Sinner will still become atg after not making a single slam final pre 22.

This is very true. It definitely takes longer to get that endurance piece down. And yes, I think that Sinner can become an ATG. He certainly has the mentality for it.

 

[TheSlicer]

Does Zverev have a slam? He’s a slamless loser

i dont know man, i get the impression you dont watch a lot of tennis, only follow results or something, i watched many maches from both since they came on tour, holger had a more complete game and made a biger impact in his first year, last year was horrible for many reasons, you better dont expect it to be like that forever, he has huge amounts of talent, and to me, better mental game than sinner year for year, and this i say it having watched A LOT of matches from both over the years, you keep to your stats, its ok

 

[dking68]

Yes but only 1 factor to add will be now it takes a bit more time to get physicality to win a slam. Eg. Sinner in 2023 USOpen didn't have the legs to beat Zverev (probably still won't win the open but he is improving). So Sinner will still become atg after not making a single slam final pre 22.

You also have to factor COVID. If Sinner never got slowed down by Covid prolly he would’ve made a slam final before 22, while Zverev, Tsitsipas and Medvedev have no excuse, they were already 22 and over

 

[dking68]

i dont know man, i get the impression you dont watch a lot of tennis, only follow results or something, i watched many maches from both since they came on tour, holger had a more complete game and made a biger impact in his first year, last year was horrible for many reasons, you better dont expect it to be like that forever, he has huge amounts of talent, and to me, better mentality than sinner, and this i say it having watched A LOT of matches from both over the years, you keep to your stats, its ok

Let’s see if he has a slam at 22 years and 5 months, which would be around November 2025. I highly doubt he is a slam winner by the end of 2025.

 

[helterskelter]

@dking68 has there ever been an atg who didn't make slam final until age 22? We kept tabs on sinner but now it's for rune to prove. He will turn 21 before RG.

I mean, Federer made his first slam final only one month and four days before he turned 22 (and played it one month and two days before he turned 22). Otherwise, the answer is no, but players tended to do better much younger than recently. Djokovic did make a slam final at 20, but he also won only one slam before he turned 23 years and eight months old (and at that point he had made just three slam finals). So, I don't think that Sinner and Rune should be judged too much by what happened in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

 

[TheSlicer]

Let’s see if he has a slam at 22 years and 5 months, which would be around November 2025. I highly doubt he is a slam winner by the end of 2025.

why would that matter to you? alcaraz had two before sinner even got his first and you still tought sinner was better lol

 

[dking68]

why would that matter to you? alcaraz had two before sinner even got his first and you still tought sinner was better lol

Who has improved more last season?

 

[dking68]

Let’s see if he has a slam at 22 years and 5 months, which would be around November 2025. I highly doubt he is a slam winner by the end of 2025.

@nolefam_2024 what you think?

 

[nolefam_2024]

I mean, Federer made his first slam final only one month and four days before he turned 22 (and played it one month and two days before he turned 22). Otherwise, the answer is no, but players tended to do better much younger than recently. Djokovic did make a slam final at 20, but he also won only one slam before he turned 23 years and eight months old (and at that point he had made just three slam finals). So, I don't think that Sinner and Rune should be judged too much by what happened in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

Yes

Rune has a lot of time but he is about to be 21. Need massive improvements but he has the skills.

 

[nolefam_2024]

@nolefam_2024 what you think?

It's 7 slams away. I am only thinking when he will make the slam final first. In 1/2 years a lot can happen.