Where does Soderling's win over Rafa at RG '09 rank among the greatest upsets in sports history?

clout

clout

Hall of Fame
I think most can agree that this was the biggest shocker in tennis history, but where does it rank among all of sports?

It's surely gotta be up there with the likes of:
Miracle on Ice (1980 OLY)
Buster-Douglas def. Tyson (1990)
UMBC def. number one Virginia (2018 NCAAB)
Vinci def. Serena (2015 USO)
McNeil def. Graf (1994 WI)
Giants def. Patriots (2007 SB)
Cavs def. Warriors (2016)
USA def. England (1950 WC)
West Germany def. Golden Team Hungary (1954 WC)
YE Yang def. Tiger Woods (2009 PGA Championship)
Holm def. Rousey (2015)
 
Not sure any of those can really compare to Tyson Douglas. Watch the doc "42-1." I've never seen odds like that in a tennis match even when world #1's play future like local players in events like Dubai. Of course boxing has had strange odds in many fights over the years, but that number does speak to how historic it was.

the 2001 Super Bowl(patriots over rams) was actually a bigger upset than 2007, according to the oddsmakers.

I'm pretty sure Doohan over Becker at 1987 Wimbledon was considered the biggest upset in Wimbledon history at the time. Some bookies reported there were 20k bets on Becker to win the tournament before it started.
 
clout said:
I think most can agree that this was the biggest shocker in tennis history, but where does it rank among all of sports?

It's surely gotta be up there with the likes of:
Miracle on Ice (1980 OLY)
Buster-Douglas def. Tyson (1990)
UMBC def. number one Virginia (2018 NCAAB)
Vinci def. Serena (2015 USO)
McNeil def. Graf (1994 WI)
Giants def. Patriots (2007 SB)
Cavs def. Warriors (2016)
USA def. England (1950 WC)
West Germany def. Golden Team Hungary (1954 WC)
YE Yang def. Tiger Woods (2009 PGA Championship)
Holm def. Rousey (2015)
Click to expand...
When USA defeated England in WC 50, English newspapers wrote that England has won 10-0 because they were sure that the actual score of 1-0 for the USA couldn’t be anything but a typo. In the same WC Uruguay beating Brazil 2-1 was a huge upset. Brazilian newspapers had already announced Brazil as the new champion the day before the match. Even more interesting that this game wasn’t actually a final sich that a draw would have been enough for Brazil to win the cup
 
clout said:
I think most can agree that this was the biggest shocker in tennis history, but where does it rank among all of sports?

It's surely gotta be up there with the likes of:
Miracle on Ice (1980 OLY)
Buster-Douglas def. Tyson (1990)
UMBC def. number one Virginia (2018 NCAAB)
Vinci def. Serena (2015 USO)
McNeil def. Graf (1994 WI)
Giants def. Patriots (2007 SB)
Cavs def. Warriors (2016)
USA def. England (1950 WC)
West Germany def. Golden Team Hungary (1954 WC)
YE Yang def. Tiger Woods (2009 PGA Championship)
Holm def. Rousey (2015)
Click to expand...


This is a limited American view on ALL sports.
 
Doohan over Becker man. Way above Soderling/Nadal.

Here's the thing about upsets and miracles. Upsets happen all the time, a good player gets hot and maybe the great player is a bit down on the day or by a few inches. Miracles are when bets aren't event taken because the odds become too big where the favorite can't even pay out 1%.

Ok?

Doohan over Becker WMB 87
Stakhovsky over Federer WMB 13
Seguso over Connors WMB 86
Flach over Agassi WMB 96
Darcis over Nadal WMB 13

If you see a pattern with grass it's because that's more common of a surface to get upset on. And the above are all players who didn't amount to much. Upsets at other events proved less so over time.

Also HM mention to Svensson straight setting Lendl at 88 French.

Soderling was an exceptional player who nearly beat Nadal on grass in 07. It was only an upset because of the mythos. If not for illness Soderling does it again fron 11-14.
 
tennisfan2015 said:
This is a limited American view on ALL sports.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately this view is quite common. If I look for general sport quizzes on sporcle (a site which I love otherwise), then often they are subdivided in like 5 categories: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and "everything else" :-D

For me it’s different: I have no understanding why the Super Bowl can be that big, because it’s a sport which isn’t even played in most parts of the world. The USA is a world for itself in sports. I think if they wanted to, they could compete for the real football (soccer) World Cup, and on the other hand it would be difficult for them to stay on top in American Football and Basketball if the whole world would compete with the same intensity.

It would be more interesting if such a great sports country would compete for the same things as the rest of the world. But it is what it is and I’m rather tolerant. Shall anyone enjoy what he likes! However, big upsets in American sports can’t be so highly represented in upsets of the world of sport. They are part of it, but not much more than regional things like the Premier League with Leicester.
 
I would still rate the Soderling upset of Rafa the greatest in tennis history. Soderling had never made it past 3R of a slam prior to that tournament and done nothing of note the whole year, not making it to a single masters QF. He'd also lost to Nadal 6-1 6-0 in Rome just a few weeks prior. Yes he took him the distance at Wimbledon a full 2 years prior, but Nadal has often been taken to 5 sets in the early rounds. Robert Kendrick (who?) went up 2 sets to love against him in 2006. Philipp Petzschner took him to 5 in 2010, as did Haase. Youzhny took him to 5 in 2007 as well.

We all know that Soderling became a fairly consistent top 10 player but that just wasn't the case prior to RG 2009.

On the flipside, Rafa had just won 4 RG titles in a row, dominating Federer at each. He'd already won the AO and 3 masters in 2009 going into RG. The sole chink in his armour was the loss to Fed at Madrid. But that was following a marathon match with Novak and anyway, he'd lost at one of the clay masters in 2005,6 and 8 and it didn't stop him from dominating RG. In fact, he'd lost just one set there in the past 2 years. He also stormed through the first 3 rounds in straights without difficulty. Nobody saw him losing to Soderling in the 4th round.

I can't speak for other sports as I don't really follow any of them as closely as tennis but I'd imagine the Soderling upset is up there. Perhaps in hindsight, it's less crazy given what Soderling went on to achieve but taken for what it was at the time, it was insane. Even with the benefit of hindsight, anyone taking out Nadal in the early rounds of RG in the middle of his prime is still crazy.
 
River Plate from Buenos Aires, Argentina relegation to the Second Division in June 2011.
Wounds would only heal when we beat Boca Juniors in Copa Libertadores final in Madrid in last December.
 
I’d rate Leicester City as the biggest sports upset ever because it was over the course of an entire season (38 games). Pretty sure there were some that thought they’d be in danger of relegation when the season began. Even though I’m an American I love soccer (football), and it really was incredible how good they were compared to the rest of the best in the Premier League that season.

Some on this thread have spoken about how the OP is American sports centered and made me wonder...if we Americans are so good at football then why is our rugby team always garbage? It’s always irked me that some guys who just missed out on going pro don’t get plucked to play when we have plenty of freakish athletes that can run a sub 4.6 second 40 yard dash and have good hands as well.
 
clout said:
I think most can agree that this was the biggest shocker in tennis history, but where does it rank among all of sports?

It's surely gotta be up there with the likes of:
Miracle on Ice (1980 OLY)
Buster-Douglas def. Tyson (1990)
UMBC def. number one Virginia (2018 NCAAB)
Vinci def. Serena (2015 USO)
McNeil def. Graf (1994 WI)
Giants def. Patriots (2007 SB)
Cavs def. Warriors (2016)
USA def. England (1950 WC)
West Germany def. Golden Team Hungary (1954 WC)
YE Yang def. Tiger Woods (2009 PGA Championship)
Holm def. Rousey (2015)
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It doesn't rank anywhere. Nadal was limbless having tendinitis in both knees which didn't bend properly. Next year when he was OK he beat the very same Soderling like a stray dog. Easily.
 
Another big upset in sports history:

Penske failed to qualify for Indy 500 in 1995 after their tremendous performance a yesr before.
 
TheGhostOfAgassi said:
Federer RG is a bit weak since he didn’t beat Rafa there, while Rafa beat him in Wimbledon
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we all know that - but the delusional RF fans dont know that. :D we need to hit that nail in their heads as many times possible. maybe then they will be figure out that they have been living in a dream since Nadal showed up :) and then Djok. Federer is only the third best player of all times. Yes, he has maybe more touch and a beautiful game - but at the end - tennis is just numbers.
 
RaiderRed said:
I’d rate Leicester City as the biggest sports upset ever because it was over the course of an entire season (38 games).
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For me that is why the two are not comparable, Leicester had a dream season, very different from “greatest upset in sports history.”

kevaninho said:
Was Nadals loss to Soderling a bigger upset than his losses to Rosol or Darcis?
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Oh for sure..Nadal still has only *2* losses at RG. Soderling was a more quality opponent but the setting more than makes up for the fact.


also OP, Cavs/Warriors really does not belong on here. Pats/Giants also.
 
Söderling’s upset seems much bigger than it was because it was in an early round. But Robin once hit #5 in the world and his best surface was clay. The following year, he ended Fed’s streak of 4 consecutive FO finals by shredding him. It is one thing if Robin was like Ferrer. But he was a strong dude the bombed 145 mph serves and had a sick forehand. He is the only guy that I ever saw that could hit through a young Nadal on clay. Granted, he never played a match like this in his life again. But he was very dangerous.
 
I dont think so. While Robin may have not peaked he was also not a nobody. He was coming in to his most successful years and perhaps the fact that he followed up that win with a lot of other great matches might slightly mark his win as less impressive if he did not have that success.
 
ChrisRF said:
Unfortunately this view is quite common. If I look for general sport quizzes on sporcle (a site which I love otherwise), then often they are subdivided in like 5 categories: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and "everything else" :-D

For me it’s different: I have no understanding why the Super Bowl can be that big, because it’s a sport which isn’t even played in most parts of the world. The USA is a world for itself in sports. I think if they wanted to, they could compete for the real football (soccer) World Cup, and on the other hand it would be difficult for them to stay on top in American Football and Basketball if the whole world would compete with the same intensity.

It would be more interesting if such a great sports country would compete for the same things as the rest of the world. But it is what it is and I’m rather tolerant. Shall anyone enjoy what he likes! However, big upsets in American sports can’t be so highly represented in upsets of the world of sport. They are part of it, but not much more than regional things like the Premier League with Leicester.
Click to expand...
There are great upsets in the AFL, or cricket, or rugby etc. Millions and millions of people around the globe have been following cricket but because the Americans do not know how to toss a cricket ball just baseball it does not mean there were no HUGE upsets in cricket, which is a sport :) I do not give a %^$# as Kyrgios would say, about American centered and limited views. It is time for you people to wake up and smell the roses. The Rome has fallen, Washington DC will fall too.
 
I'm not expert enough to judge greatest upsets in other sports but I could vouch for USA beating USSR in hockey as one. As for tennis though, I'll take Istomin over Djokovic as #1 over Soderling-Nadal, since Soderling was a seeded player, #23, and gave Nadal trouble in the past. Istomin was a wild card and Djokovic had a stranglehold on the AO, 8-0 vs big 4 in those 5 years, so it was as close to a 100% certain outcome as ever. That's #1 for me.
Doohan vs Becker and Karlovic vs Hewitt probably #3 and #4 respectively. Chang vs Lendl and Rosol vs Nadal deserve honorable mentions too.
 
robthai said:
Nothing beats Leicester City winning the premier league at 5000-1 odds
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Have to say I agree, I don't even follow soccer, but those odds and that story were absolutely mind blowing even if it was just being relayed to me by a sports commentator on a highlights show that comes on in the mornings.

That said, I'd rank Soderling's upset right up there. Not necessarily above Leicester City, but it's above many of the ones mentioned in the OP IMO. As I said, I don't follow soccer so I can't comment on those.

It's above anything to do with college basketball since college basketball is built on upsets. Never really surprised to hear about an upset in the NCAA no matter how big it is.

It's above Vinci def Serena (even as big as that one was), and I can't really comment on the other tennis related upsets like Graf-McNeil and Doohan-Becker since I didn't know enough about the circumstances of the time, but in my biased opinion, Nadal-Soderling will likely remain forever in my mind as the greatest tennis upset that I ever witnessed hands down. Unless someone else comes along and wins 11 RG (and maybe counting) I will never consider another upset as big as that one. And that's the beauty of that upset. At the time it was still huge even though Nadal had only 4 RG titles, and it's gotten significantly bigger in hindsight. It's like it created a massive earthquake so huge that the aftershock is still being felt today with every RG title that Nadal wins. Not only that, Federer will remain on 1 RG title forever. In fact the only potential bigger story than Soderling def Nadal would be if Federer won RG this year, lol.

It's bigger than Giants def Patriots, and I don't say that lightly because I loved that upset. The Patriots were 18-0 and I don't think anybody really thought they would lose, but the Giants had played them to a very close 38-35 score at the end of the regular season, and they had a few other hiccups in the regular season as well even though they won those games. They were down 10 starting the 4th to the Colts, and I believe Baltimore and Philadelphia were the other teams that came close to beating them.

It's bigger than Cavs def Warriors. Not much to say here. Cavs were definitely underdogs, but any team with Lebron on it always has a shot. Cavs def Warriors could probably be taken off this list in favour of something else. I see Doohan-Becker has been suggested so I won't say that again, and forgive my North American centric view here, but what about something like the 2004 ALCS. Teams were evenly matched on paper of course, but the Sox were down 3-0 and to make a long story short, anyone who knows the full history of the Sox knows how huge that was. I did, and I'm not even a Red Sox fan.

And it's above anything golf or UFC related, no questions asked.

The others are debatable. So Soderling def Nadal is in that top tier IMO. Right there with the Miracle on Ice, Leicester City, and Douglas def Tyson.
 
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Otacon said:
Good list but too American-centered.
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Well I am born and raised in North’s america so the majority of our sports coverage is American based. I try to explore other sports outside the continent but besides European football, the channels here simply don’t cover many other leagues located outside the continent
 
mike danny said:
Nothing and I mean NOTHING will EVER beat the Nadal upset at RG. Greatest upset in tennis history and future generations will never understand how huge the shock waves of that upset were.
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ok I wouldnt EXAGERATE - after that win everything went back to normal.
 
clout said:
I think most can agree that this was the biggest shocker in tennis history, but where does it rank among all of sports?


West Germany def. Golden Team Hungary (1954 WC)
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Moreover Hungary led 2-0 in the match.
Hungarians are still crying about it. lol
 
tennisfan2015 said:
This is a limited American view on ALL sports.
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Otacon said:
Good list but too American-centered.
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It always makes me laugh when a thread like this is made and stuff like this is said.

No offense to either of you, but do you even know what "ALCS" means without using google? Do you know of the ALCS I'm referring to when I say 2004?

If you want a less "limited" view make a thread yourself, but then I suspect we'd see a "limited" European centric view with sports like darts, snooker, cricket, rugby and soccer, and nothing about the NHL, NFL, MLB, or NBA.

I'd also like to point out that many Europeans do not realize how unpopular soccer is in NA in comparison to how popular it is in Europe. And yes I know I'll be drawn and quartered for having the audacity to call it soccer. It's still shown on TV sure, and it will get its share of viewers, but it's absolutely nothing in comparison to how soccer mad it gets on the European continent sometimes.

Point is, the sports are so different across continents that even criticizing the OP is pretty useless since most Europeans don't have a clue about American sports, the same way it's true in reverse. If I was either of you, I'd just be happy he put two very old WC upsets on this list, something I would never do. Leicester City yes, but nothing besides that.
 
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Steve0904 said:
It always makes me laugh when a thread like this is made and stuff like this is said.

No offense to either of you, but do you even know what "ALCS" means without using google? Do you know of the ALCS I'm referring to when I say 2004?

If you want a less "limited" view make a thread yourself, but then I suspect we'd see a "limited" European centric view with sports like darts, snooker, cricket, rugby and soccer, and nothing about the NHL, NFL, MLB, or NBA.

I'd also like to point out that many Europeans do not realize how unpopular soccer is in NA in comparison to how popular it is in Europe. And yes I know I'll be drawn and quartered for having the audacity to call it soccer. It's still shown on TV sure, and it will get its share of viewers, but it's absolutely nothing in comparison to how soccer mad it gets on the European continent sometimes.

Point is, the sports are so different across continents that even criticizing the OP is pretty useless since most Europeans don't have a clue about American sports, the same way it's true in reverse. If I was either of you, I'd just be happy he put two very old WC upsets on this list, something I would never do. Leicester City yes, but nothing besides that.
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Why are you so upset ?

This is an international forum.
 
Otacon said:
Why are you so upset ?

This is an international forum.
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Sorry if I came across upset. It's just a pet peeve of mine here. It's an international forum yes, but if a guy makes a NA centric list chances are he's from NA. He doesn't really need anyone telling him how NA centric his list is, or how "limited" it is, like the other poster said.

And I wish in future if a thread is made about more European centric sports that nobody trashes it with stupid "2nd rate" comments.
 
Since nobody has been as dominant as Nadal on a single surface, it's arguably the greatest upset in tennis history.
Comparing it to the upsets in another sports is tricky.
 
robthai said:
Nothing beats Leicester City winning the premier league at 5000-1 odds
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This a million times....winning a match or even a tournament can have some good fortune involved. Nothing can beat a side like Leicester beating teams with far better resources and players than them over the course of a whole season.
 
Any mention of Denmark winning Euro 92? They were a replacement!!!

Towny said:
I would still rate the Soderling upset of Rafa the greatest in tennis history. Soderling had never made it past 3R of a slam prior to that tournament and done nothing of note the whole year, not making it to a single masters QF. He'd also lost to Nadal 6-1 6-0 in Rome just a few weeks prior. Yes he took him the distance at Wimbledon a full 2 years prior, but Nadal has often been taken to 5 sets in the early rounds. Robert Kendrick (who?) went up 2 sets to love against him in 2006. Philipp Petzschner took him to 5 in 2010, as did Haase. Youzhny took him to 5 in 2007 as well.

We all know that Soderling became a fairly consistent top 10 player but that just wasn't the case prior to RG 2009.

On the flipside, Rafa had just won 4 RG titles in a row, dominating Federer at each. He'd already won the AO and 3 masters in 2009 going into RG. The sole chink in his armour was the loss to Fed at Madrid. But that was following a marathon match with Novak and anyway, he'd lost at one of the clay masters in 2005,6 and 8 and it didn't stop him from dominating RG. In fact, he'd lost just one set there in the past 2 years. He also stormed through the first 3 rounds in straights without difficulty. Nobody saw him losing to Soderling in the 4th round.

I can't speak for other sports as I don't really follow any of them as closely as tennis but I'd imagine the Soderling upset is up there. Perhaps in hindsight, it's less crazy given what Soderling went on to achieve but taken for what it was at the time, it was insane. Even with the benefit of hindsight, anyone taking out Nadal in the early rounds of RG in the middle of his prime is still crazy.
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Hindsight is what conclusively evaluates upsets though. It doesn't matter what it looks like at the time. And even then at the time Soderling won his next 2 matches to make the final.

Doohan, Segusa, Flach, Darcis and Stakhovsky didn't do jack.
 
At the time same as Buster Douglas’s win v Tyson. Big difference is Rafa recovered his aura at RG afterwards and if anything it got even stronger.
 
BGod said:
Hindsight is what conclusively evaluates upsets though. It doesn't matter what it looks like at the time. And even then at the time Soderling won his next 2 matches to make the final.

Doohan, Segusa, Flach, Darcis and Stakhovsky didn't do jack.
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Hindsight works both ways. After Soderling beat Nadal, he won the next 5 RG in a row. In fact, he's only lost one other match there, to RG champion Djokovic in one of Nadal's worst years on the tour, where everyone was beating him. So the Soderling loss is crazy, given it was one defeat in a 10 year period.

On the other hand, Becker lost again the following year and only won 1 Wimbledon title after 87. And he'd won 2 before, not 4 like Nadal. Connors was way past his prime in 86 and would never win Wimbledon again. In fact, he only made 1 more SF there and hadn't won there in 4 years. He also lost early at the US open that year.

Agassi hadn't been in a Wimbledon final since 92 wouldn't be again till 99. Plus he also lost early at RG as well. The Darcis loss was a surprise but Nadal had already lost to Rosol the previous year and would proceed to lose in the early rounds of Wimbledon for the next few years. Fed was having a terrible year in 2013 and also lost early at the US to Robredo. Unexpected but in the context of 2013, the loss to Stakovsky made sense.

So even though Soderling is clearly far more accomplished than the others, Nadal losing was also far more unexpected in the context of what came after. So I stand by my view that the Soderling loss being the greatest upset in tennis history.
 
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I've never understood the Buster Douglas one as a candidate for greatest upset ever. Sure I'm not too up on my boxing, but if you watch that fight alone, it's not as if Douglas was up against the ropes for 10 rounds and then threw one lucky punch. It looked quite an even well fought bout.

In tennis terms, nothing beats Soderling 09. I saw Nadal crush him 6-0 6-1 a month before in Rome and did not give him a prayer. I actually forgot the match was on. I'd been on a walk, came home, flicked the TV on, saw it was 2 sets to 1 and my jaw literally hit the floor. Then I watched the fourth set shaking like a leaf (I really wanted a French Open for Fed).

No Fed result has ever shocked me as much. Most of his losses post-prime were to Djokovic/Nadal/Del Potro. By the time Stakhovsky came along he was long past his absolute best.
 
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Greatest of my time has to be Leicester winning the premier league. The other usual suspects listed. but they will always fight for second. I might give that to Buster Douglas beating Mike Tyson. Leicester was some different kind of Roy of the Rovers.
 
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