I would not bring 2015 USO because:
- federer got killed there considering circumstances (cool NY fans) and all the hype before that match
- NOVAK was up double break in the 4th set
- federer never had a chance in spite of all those break points.
- it was a very clean win for Novak especially toying with his SABR crap he was trying to do
You write like the SABR was some laughable delusion of grandeur, but it had been effective in the recent past, including against Novak at times. He just did a decent job of handling it this time. Also, your third bullet reads quite bizarrely. Unless you're suggesting Novak was unplayable in 85% of break points?
It's a too common misconception that Nole "toyed" with Federer's SABR at the 2015 USO. Federer won 4 of 6 SABR points.
Nole had a successful lob and drew a volley error from Roger. Also, the SABR doesn't even have to work 50% of the time to be effective.
It's there to put doubt and pressure on the opponent's second serve, and the terror caused by it can even cause double faults.
Having the full match at my disposal, I reviewed the match for SABR usage.
1st set - No SABR attempts
2nd set - Djokovic won 1st set 6-4
1. Djokovic serving at 0-1 0-0. Federer with a SABR return winner off the back line. SABR[Federer 1 - 0 Djokovic]
2. Djokovic serving at 1-2 15-0. Federer with a SABR to Novak backhand and Novak with a brilliant cross court lob winner. SABR[Federer 1 - 1 Djokovic]
3rd set - Federer won 2nd set 7-5
3. Djokovic serving at 0-1 15-15. Federer with a SABR down the line, Djokovic overcooks the pass long. SABR[Federer 2 - 1 Djokovic]
4. Djokovic serving at 0-1 15-30. Federer with a SABR cross court, Djokovic hits back cross for a Federer backhand volley that goes just past the service line to Novak's forehand, then Novak tries to pass Federer cross court and Federer nets the volley. SABR[Federer 2 - 2 Djokovic]
Djokovic serving at 2-1 serves 2 double faults, the second especially nervy probably thinking of or fearing the SABR, and gets broken.
5. Djokovic serving at 2-3, 0-15. Federer comes in on the SABR, Novak taking a peek, double faults. SABR[Federer 3 - 2 Djokovic]
3rd set - No SABR attempts
4th set -
6. Djokovic serving at 5-2, 15-15. Federer with a SABR return to Novak's backhand. Novak goes cross court to Federer volley to Novak's forehand, and Djokovic returns up weakly and Federer puts away overhead. Federer has his 4th and last break. SABR[Federer 4 - 2 Djokovic]
I wouldn't call a 2-4 outcome from Novak toying with Roger's SABR.
However, it didn't matter a whole lot. Roger wasted so many break point chances and made too many errors on the forehand side to be able to win this match, though it was still highly in doubt till the 3rd set when Federer lost a big opportunity to break leading 4-3, then lost the next 5 games.