Where will Nadal be in match wins....

edmondsm

Legend
...when he retires. Right now it's:

1.Connors-1253
2.Lendl-1071
3.Federer-1000
4.Vilas-929
5.McEnroe-875
Andre Agassi-870
7.Stefan Edberg-801
8.Ilie Năstase-779
9.Pete Sampras-762
10.Boris Becker-713

Nadal is sitting at 706. I have a feeling he will pass McEnroe and get inside the top 5 but probably not Vilas. What do you think?
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
...when he retires. Right now it's:

1.Connors-1253
2.Lendl-1071
3.Federer-1000
4.Vilas-929
5.McEnroe-875
Andre Agassi-870
7.Stefan Edberg-801
8.Ilie Năstase-779
9.Pete Sampras-762
10.Boris Becker-713

Nadal is sitting at 706. I have a feeling he will pass McEnroe and get inside the top 5 but probably not Vilas. What do you think?
Rafa has won 706 matches. Fed won 688 matches by the same age.
Conclusion: Rafa will pass Fed.
 

smoledman

G.O.A.T.
Rafa has won 706 matches. Fed won 688 matches by the same age.
Conclusion: Rafa will pass Fed.
Rafa has a lot more mileage at the same age due to playing way many more points and more grueling points. I don't think there is any chance in hell of Rafa even getting 950 match wins.
 
Rafa has won 706 matches. Fed won 688 matches by the same age.
Conclusion: Rafa will pass Fed.
On average Nadal has played about 68 matches per season from 2011 onwards - going at this rate and even by winning every single one of the next 294 matches to come, it would thereby still take him more than four years to catch up to Federer's 1000 milestone.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
On average Nadal has played about 68 matches per season from 2011 onwards - going at this rate and even by winning every single one of the next 294 matches to come, it would thereby still take him more than four years to catch up to Federer's 1000 milestone.
More than four years? So what?! Rafa is five years younger than Fed.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
More than four years? So what?! Rafa is five years younger than Fed.
Even if we give him a winning percentage of 85 % over the next five years, assuming he stays at 68 matches per year, would leave him at 996 matches won in five years time (winning 58 matches per year).
And oh, Fed's still playing.
 

jg153040

G.O.A.T.
Even if we give him a winning percentage of 85 % over the next five years, assuming he stays at 68 matches per year, would leave him at 996 matches won in five years time (winning 58 matches per year).
And oh, Fed's still playing.
Not that Fed is still playing, he still wins more matches in a year than current young Rafa.

Sure, in theory it's possible, but very unlikely. But some fans really have unrealistic expectations. They assume that based on the h2h, that Rafa will have the same consistency. It doesn't work that way.

On the other hand, it's crazy Fed is doing so well. I'm his fan, but this is way above my expectations.

Maybe age is not the reason people quit early. I mean Agassi was doing great. Great shotmakers seem to do great.

So, maybe age itself is not the biggest reason for decline. It's motivation, mental fatigue, injuries.

It's crazy Federer still has motivation. After all he has, he still grinds it out every day. It's love. I don't think we will find anyone who loves the game so much.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
Not that Fed is still playing, he still wins more matches in a year than current young Rafa.

Sure, in theory it's possible, but very unlikely. But some fans really have unrealistic expectations. They assume that based on the h2h, that Rafa will have the same consistency. It doesn't work that way.

On the other hand, it's crazy Fed is doing so well. I'm his fan, but this is way above my expectations.

Maybe age is not the reason people quit early. I mean Agassi was doing great. Great shotmakers seem to do great.

So, maybe age itself is not the biggest reason for decline. It's motivation, mental fatigue, injuries.

It's crazy Federer still has motivation. After all he has, he still grinds it out every day. It's love. I don't think we will find anyone who loves the game so much.
I have realistic expectations that Rafa will surpass Fed.
 

Noleberic123

G.O.A.T.
...when he retires. Right now it's:

1.Connors-1253
2.Lendl-1071
3.Federer-1000
4.Vilas-929
5.McEnroe-875
Andre Agassi-870
7.Stefan Edberg-801
8.Ilie Năstase-779
9.Pete Sampras-762
10.Boris Becker-713

Nadal is sitting at 706. I have a feeling he will pass McEnroe and get inside the top 5 but probably not Vilas. What do you think?
I think you about right ;)
 

Russeljones

G.O.A.T.
...when he retires. Right now it's:

1.Connors-1253
2.Lendl-1071
3.Federer-1000
4.Vilas-929
5.McEnroe-875
Andre Agassi-870
7.Stefan Edberg-801
8.Ilie Năstase-779
9.Pete Sampras-762
10.Boris Becker-713

Nadal is sitting at 706. I have a feeling he will pass McEnroe and get inside the top 5 but probably not Vilas. What do you think?
Your guess looks plausible. He would have been higher if he wasn't afraid of losing.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
If they shrinks clay season to 1GS, 1 Masters 1, ATP 500 and 1 ATP 250 organising more grass court tournaments, I even doubt guy will reach at 800 let alone McEnroe, Vilas.
 

Backspin1183

G.O.A.T.
If they shrinks clay season to 1GS, 1 Masters 1, ATP 500 and 1 ATP 250 organising more grass court tournaments, I even doubt guy will reach at 800 let alone McEnroe, Vilas.
This. Nadal has zero chance of winning hard court and grass matches. D.Nalby12 knows his tennis. :lol:
 

Backspin1183

G.O.A.T.
I can see him winning 200 more matches, not more. He won't keep playing when he's no longer capable of winning the biggest titles. Tennis isn't and shouldn't be everything in life.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
If they shrinks clay season to 1GS, 1 Masters 1, ATP 500 and 1 ATP 250 organising more grass court tournaments, I even doubt guy will reach at 800 let alone McEnroe, Vilas.
Firstservingman: "We don't know what will happen, so your conclusions are false."
 

Backspin1183

G.O.A.T.
USO is still his best chance outside of RG IMO. Don't count out rafa yet. Mark my words....
I'm not a fool. I know how good he is and can be outside of clay too. I was mocking that other poster who spoke of Nadal like a 200th ranked player on tour. Agree with you, he seems to play good with confidence at USO.
 

Noleberic123

G.O.A.T.
I'm not a fool. I know how good he is and can be outside of clay too. I was mocking that other poster who spoke of Nadal like a 200th ranked player on tour. Agree with you, he seems to play good with confidence at USO.
I expect him to win atleast another RG and a USO by the end of his career. that's the minimum!
 
D

Deleted member 21996

Guest
i like how all you guys are trying to reason with a brick!
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Minimum 900. He has said many times recently that he wants to play for a long time. I see him playing for 4-5 years more unless there is some serious injury.
 
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cknobman

Legend
Octo why don't you just rephrase your comment to say "Rafa could pass Fed"?

It is certainly possible yet with that one tiny little word change you go from sounding like a hard headed fanboy to someone that is capable of sound judgement and reasoning.
 
Minimum 900. He has said many times recently that he wants to play for a long time. I see him playing for 4-5 years more unless some serious injury.
Even I doubt that. 200 more wins is a decent amount for someone who already is 28. If no more major injuries occur I could see 900 happen but based off of past years I say around 850 which is roughly a whole season less than 900
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Even I doubt that. 200 more wins is a decent amount for someone who already is 28. If no more major injuries occur I could see 900 happen but based off of past years I say around 850 which is roughly a whole season less than 900
Yes your range of 850-950 seems reasonable.
 

Kalin

Legend
Conclusion: Rafa will pass Fed.
The only way for Rafa to pass Fed in anything is if Fed is leisurely walking down the stairs while Rafa jumps out of the window. And even then it's doubtful since Rafa might get injured during the egress...
 
D

Deleted member 21996

Guest
It's the infinite brick theorem. One day, one of them will write Shakespeare.
Shakespeare was hardly a genius himself!!!

edit: also you cant polish one, but rolling it in glitter will eventually fool a couple of distracted peeps!
 
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The_Order

G.O.A.T.
Rafa has a lot more mileage at the same age due to playing way many more points and more grueling points. I don't think there is any chance in hell of Rafa even getting 950 match wins.
At the same time, he's also missed many months of competition as well, whereas Federer has been going almost non stop.

Nadal won't get 950 wins though, he's too injury prone for that.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
The only way for Rafa to pass Fed in anything is if Fed is leisurely walking down the stairs while Rafa jumps out of the window. And even then it's doubtful since Rafa might get injured during the egress...
Yeah, Nadal will never pass Fed with RG titles.
 

The_Mental_Giant

Hall of Fame
depends of 2015 and 2016.. if he manages to sit at 840 matches by the end of 2016 then he has reasonable of chances to surpass federer... but It also depends how long fed keeps playing. The problem for Rafa is that fed keeps playing.. and If he retires at 35 in 2016 I highly doubt rafa will reach 35 in 2021.. at least not playing as many matches as fed would..

Anyways I dont care If he wins more matches than federer, I would be happy with him already passing Becker and Sampras this year, then nastase and Edberg would be at quite close distance too.
 
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coloskier

Legend
Rafa has won 706 matches. Fed won 688 matches by the same age.
Conclusion: Rafa will pass Fed.
If Rafa is still playing tennis in 2 years I'll be amazed. He's too busy playing golf and poker and losing in the first round of tournaments. Even if he wins every clay tournament in the next two years, it won't even put him close to Fed.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
Octo why don't you just rephrase your comment to say "Rafa could pass Fed"?

It is certainly possible yet with that one tiny little word change you go from sounding like a hard headed fanboy to someone that is capable of sound judgement and reasoning.
Why should I change my opinion ?! :roll:

Why do you think that Fedfans (&supporters) are more entitled to express their opinion than I am ?!
 
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