Which Big 3 victory was more miraculous?

[TennisProphet2024]

I think we can all agree that Federer's most miraculous victory came at the 2017 Australian Open, where he defeated four top 10 players, including his nemesis Rafael Nadal, who had won their last 3 encounters at the AO. Moreover, Roger was already 35 years old back then, just came back from a knee injury that sidelined him for several months, and hadn't won a Slam in 5 years.

Similarly, Nadal's 2022 AO win also seemed extremely improbable. He came back from a foot injury, which sidelined him for the rest of 2021 after his FO match against Djokovic. And in the AO final, he was 2 sets to love down and faced triple break point in the 3rd set against Daniil Medvedev, who was in great form after winning the US Open a few months prior.

And last but not least, Djokovic's Olympic Gold Medal win yesterday was arguably the most improbable victory of the Serb's career imo. In his last 4 attempts to win the Olympic Gold, Djokovic was not able to even reach the final once, and his very best result was a Bronze medal. 2024 has been statistically one of the worst, if not, the worst season of Djokovic's career so far (leading up to the Olympics). Not to mention that in the final, he had to face Carlos Alcaraz, who has been the most in-form player of the season and had just demolished Djokovic a few weeks ago at Wimbledon.

With that being said, which victory do you guys find was more miraculous?
Personally, I am going with Federer's 2017 AO win.

 

[nolefam_2024]

All 3 were underdogs to say the least. I remember Nadal was not even top 3 fav in AO 2022 and Federer not even top 5 fav in AO 2017

Nole was second fav by vastly behind Alcaraz and had Rafa Tsitsipas and Zverev on his side.

I am going with Fed 2017 because it was 5 years since he last won a slam and beat Nadal who he last beat in 2007 in a slam.

 

[The Guru]

Nadal felt the most unlikely in the moment considering the tennis he was playing. That QF vs Shapo was shockingly bad and I thought he might even lose to Berrettini after that. Djokovic and Fed were at least looking pretty good even though I wouldn't have bet on either of them going into the late stages of their runs.

 

[Mustard]

The 2022 Australian Open final. Nadal was given a 4% or less chance of winning the match during parts of the third set.

 

[TennisProphet2024]

Nadal felt the most unlikely in the moment considering the tennis he was playing. That QF vs Shapo was shockingly bad and I thought he might even lose to Berrettini after that. Djokovic and Fed were at least looking pretty good even though I wouldn't have bet on either of them going into the late stages of their runs.

True, I agree with everything you said, although in the case of Djokovic, Alcaraz was playing shockingly well leading up to the Olympics final. He had won the Channel Slam, and even destroyed Djokovic at Wimbledon a few months earlier.

 

[Rebel-I.N.S]

As a neutral, I’ll say Federer’s 2017 AO.

Coming off six months out in his mid-30s and beating his arch-rival in the final - too perfect.

 

[duaneeo]

Easily Federer. Everyone said that he could no longer survive 5-setters, and he won three of them...the most miraculous being the final against nemesis Nadal, who he hadn't beaten at a slam in 10 years, and who was up a break in the 5th set. I think many Rafa fans (understandably) had DCGS/24-11 threads already created and ready to send at that moment.

Nadal's victory is close, as no way should he had been in the final. And he had lost to so many different players at the AO since winning in 2009. But once he made he final, winning was no longer miraculous...even when down 0-2. The opponent was Medvedev.

The highly glorified exhibition BO3 Olympics tennis shouldn't even be among the list.

 

[Indigo]

40:15 is Novak's the most miraculous.

 

[GabeT]

I think it depends at which point you are asking the question. I suspect Fed was the greater underdog at the start of the tournament but I think Novak was the greater underdog if you look at the odds right before the final starts

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think it depends at which point you are asking the question. I suspect Fed was the greater underdog at the start of the tournament but I think Novak was the greater underdog if you look at the odds right before the final starts

Certianly

Fed was 35% Fav if I recall correctly.

Nole dropped to under 30% before final.

But 1 match doesn't talk about odds. Fed was not even top 5 fav in AO

It was Djokovic/Andy, followed by many others and then at world number 17 and 6 months away from tennis Federer.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Certianly

Fed was 35% Fav if I recall correctly.

Nole dropped to under 30% before final.

But 1 match doesn't talk about odds. Fed was not even top 5 fav in AO

It was Djokovic/Andy, followed by many others and then at world number 17 and 6 months away from tennis Federer.

As a Fed fan that was the most miraculous moment for me. I honestly would have been fine if he retired right there.

The agony and emotions I went through in that 5th set... It was the opposite of 2019 WC tie.

I would not trade that AO 17 for WC 19.

 

[nolefam_2024]

As a Fed fan that was the most miraculous moment for me. I honestly would have been fine if he retired right there.

The agony and emotions I went through in that 5th set... It was the opposite of 2019 WC tie.

I would not trade that AO 17 for WC 19.

No one would
Nadal is his arch rival.

 

[djokovic the conqueror]

The AO 2022 is asterisked and doesn't count because Djokovic was unjustly banned from playing the AO. Everyone knows that Nadal wouldn't have won the AO that year had Djokovic been allowed to play.

Djokovic's 2024 Olympic gold medal win is the most impressive. He had a lot of pressure to win because this was his last chance to win a gold medal. Plus, he was still recovering from his knee surgery and he had a 16 year age disadvantage against Alcaraz. Djokovic overcame all the odds and played one of his best matches on clay.

 

[nolefam_2024]

The AO 2022 is asterisked and doesn't count because Djokovic was unjustly banned from playing the AO. Everyone knows that Nadal wouldn't have won the AO that year had Djokovic been allowed to play.

Djokovic's 2024 Olympic gold medal win is the most impressive. He had a lot of pressure to win because this was his last chance to win a gold medal. Plus, he was still recovering from his knee surgery and he had a 16 year age disadvantage against Alcaraz. Djokovic overcame all the odds and played one of his best matches on clay.

100%. I have mentally deleted entire 2022 from my mind tbh. I started watching tennis after USopen directly. Only watched Madrid semis and RG QF.

 

[inflation_era]

The Nadal win was anything but that, it was simply a choke by the opponent. Djokovic was because NExtGen is pathetic. The only right answer is Federer.

 

[inflation_era]

I think it depends at which point you are asking the question. I suspect Fed was the greater underdog at the start of the tournament but I think Novak was the greater underdog if you look at the odds right before the final starts

You also have to take into the calculation the possum factor.

 

[jl809]

I think it’s Nadal’s still… but it’s very very close for Djoker

People forget Fed had made deep runs in his last 2 HC slams before the 2017 AO (he’d just lost to Djoker both times) and SFs in his last 4 slams. If he could get healthy and avoid Djoker, a slam was potentially on the cards (…if he could get Nadal on a fast court, which he did)

Djoker’s win was a shock really for how he turned it around against Alcaraz - I wasn’t shocked by him beating Musetti or Loserpas at all - but we should have paid more attention to Raz’s meh showings against tough opposition at RG 24 and his issues with Djoker at RG 23. But Djoker really shocked me with how he channelled his stress and desire into playing at his maximum possible, it was incredible

No shock for me that Nadal could beat Berrettini and co, but the fact he beat Medvedev in a marathon, not a sprint, considering their ages and fitness at the time and the fact Nadal had no deep runs at HC slams since USO 19… it was totally left field. Unbelievable to win the way he did. Even after Djoker was banned, Nadal was not considered a favourite at all. And I thought the final was better than it has since been made out to be (the earlier rounds, not so much lol)

 

[Mustard]

People forget Fed had made deep runs in his last 2 HC slams before the 2017 AO (he’d just lost to Djoker both times) and SFs in his last 4 slams.

What does that matter compared to Federer being out of action since the end of 2016 Wimbledon and having had two knee surgeries (in February 2016 and July 2016)? These knee issues started the day after the 2016 Australian Open semi final against Djokovic, when Federer slipped in a bath. Prior to the 2016 French Open, Federer had played every single major slam tournament in the 21st century.

The narrative of the 2017 Australian Open final at the time was that Federer's win over Nadal proved that Federer was the greatest. It was a very surprising final matchup, and seen as a last hurrah. Instead, Nadal and Federer dominated the next 18 months and shared the majors between them.

 

[Mainad]

I think Djokovic's 2019 Wimbledon win should be up there.

 

[jl809]

What does that matter compared to Federer being out of action since the end of 2016 Wimbledon and having had two knee surgeries (in February 2016 and July 2016)? These knee issues started the day after the 2016 Australian Open semi final against Djokovic, when Federer slipped in a bath. Prior to the 2016 French Open, Federer had played every single major slam tournament in the 21st century.

Sure but the thing is they all had injuries beforehand (Djokovic’s by far the least severe in retrospect), so imo I have to look at the form before that injury itself

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think Djokovic's 2019 Wimbledon win should be up there.

Dude he was overwhelming fav in that year

There is no miracle he won, it would be miraculous if Fed won which he was 1 pt away. Had he won, it would probably top this.

 

[Mainad]

Dude he was overwhelming fav in that year

There is no miracle he won, it would be miraculous if Fed won which he was 1 pt away. Had he won, it would probably top this.

But I mean, 40-15! Who can forget that miraculous escape??

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Federer's.

 

[SonnyT]

I'm sorry, but if we had the real Djokovic for both '17 and '22 AO, he would've been the heavy favorite for both!

At '17 and '22 AO, Nadal was slight favorite. For OG, Alcaraz was heavy favorite.