Which is more likely to happen in 2008, Nadal wins Wimbledon or Federer wins French?

[Maestro Nalbandian]

Both guys have reached the finals of both events two years in a roll. I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal wins Wimbledon, or Federer wins FO, or even both, next year. On papar Nadal has slightly a better chance since he pushed Federer to five sets in the Wimbledon final and Federer has never gotten more than one set from Nadal in the French. But thats on papar only. You would have to consider other factors that will affect their respective performances next year. But its not the point of discussion for this thread. I'm simply asking which scenario do you see most likely to happen?

And please don't post hating comments like:'Nadal will have his ass handed to him by Federer next year in the French' or 'Federer will not be so lucky again in the Wimbledon final winning the 5th set'.

P.S. For those 'forum police' wannabies who might think this thread is pointless, please do not participate if you don't like this poll.

 

[zagor]

Considering how close Wimbledon final was I would probably have to go with Nadal,however Nadal played a couple of five setters on his way unlike Federer who only lost one set getting to the FO final so Nadal is more prone to upsets at Wimbledon than Federer is at the French.

 

[Maestro Nalbandian]

Nadal is more prone to upsets at Wimbledon than Federer is at the French.

Yes thats what I thought as well. But you also have to consider that Federer, each year, gets to compete or "practice" on clay with Nadal 3 or 4 tournaments in preparation for the French. Nadal however only has one shot (or two including queens) against Federer in Wimbledon. Don't know if that puts Nadal in a disadvantage since Nadal has to adjust his game for grass in a shorter time frame than Federer on clay.

 

[jukka1970]

Yes thats what I thought as well. But you also have to consider that Federer, each year, gets to compete or "practice" on clay with Nadal 3 or 4 tournaments in preparation for the French. Nadal however only has one shot (or two including queens) against Federer in Wimbledon. Don't know if that puts Nadal in a disadvantage since Nadal has to adjust his game for grass in a shorter time frame than Federer on clay.

Actually, that's a good point about the preperation as far as how many tournaments are on each surface. It's also one of the reasons that I think Federer will win the French Open before Nadal wins Wimbledon. I also think that Federer's game makes the transition faster, though even that is quite debatable with Nadal making the finals twice in a row. So I guess to me it really does come down to how many times they've faced each other on that surface before the slam.

Jukka

 

[Rhino]

Federer to win the French, mainly because there are too many guys that could eliminate Nadal before he gets to the final of Wimbledon, but I can only imagine Djokovic would have an outside chance to take out Federer before the final.

 

[welcome2petrkordaland]

nadal is definitely more likely to win wimby than fed is to win roland garros IMO. federer's serve is neutralized by the clay as well as his ability to hit winners (with any regularity) from the back, esp. against nadal. in a 3 of 5 on clay, you gotta go w/ the spaniard-too strong, too fast, too determined, and most importantly too patient (& this does not even take into acct. his dramatic improvements in the last year).

on the grass, which is another "natural" surface, nadal has improved dramatically-return of serve, volleys, slice, and serve. also, with the more compacted dirt under the grass, the bounce is truer and higher. fed came through in the 5th at wimby this year like a true champ, but only just. the serve prove to be the diff. (like in shanghai).

can fed win roland garros? absolutely. he'll need to make some tactical changes and show more guts, though-more patience, incorporation of some sort of heavily topped moonballesque crosscourt forehand to either set up the next attacking shot or simply to stay in the point, low accurate slices (which we know we can do) at the right time to set up the next shot, random surprise serve-and-volleys off a kick serve to keep nadal off balance, etc.

the main reason i went w/ nadal being more likely to win wimby than fed winning roland garros is that fed seems stubborn on clay and not willing to execute the right game plan against nadal on clay. as the most talented tennis player ever IMO, fed is so used to relying on pure talent. against nadal on clay, though, pure talent won't quite cut it.

 

[ninman]

I think that Federer has a much better chance at the French than Nadal at Wimbledon. Leading up to the final Federer played far better than Nadal, he went to sleep against Robredo or Ferrer I can't remember who and lost a set 6-1 but that was his only glitch. Nadal on the other hand had to come back from 2-0 down against Youzhny, and wouldn't have if he hadn't gotten injured, he was also one point from being 5-3 down and Soderling serving for the match in the fifth there.

I don't think Federer played particularly well in either the French or Wimbledon finals to be honest. Despite what the score might suggest Federer could easily have won the French open this year. There were two games in that match that I thought were critical when Federer had about 6 break points in each, one in the first and one in the third. Nadal won those games, I felt that if they had gone Federer's way he would have won both of those sets, and then probably the championships.

I think Federer is a much better clay courter than Nadal is a grass courter and while Federer will be 26, nearly 27 next year I think that these next three years will be the peak of his abilities and his best chances to take 1 or 2 possibly even 3 French Open's. Although obviously just one would be really good.

 

[Turning Pro]

Nadal has been closer to Winning Wimbledon than Fed has with the French. End for now.

 

[Chang]

From what the results show, Nadal is closer to winning Wimby than Fed winning French.

However as a previous poster has said, Nadal is more prone to upsets and Fed has beaten Nadal on clay.

I still think Nadal has a better chance. Fed (unless he plays his best) is no match for Nadal on clay.

 

[Tennis-Chris]

Federer Will Win At Roland Garros

Considering how close Wimbledon final was I would probably have to go with Nadal,however Nadal played a couple of five setters on his way unlike Federer who only lost one set getting to the FO final so Nadal is more prone to upsets at Wimbledon than Federer is at the French.

Federer has proven his ability to win on clay against Nadal (Hamburg 2007) but Nadal has not yet cracked the nut against Federer on grass. Career head to head stats are 8-6 for Nadal. On Clay Nadal is 6-1 against Federer. On Grass Federer leads 2-0. Hard courts Federer leads 3-2. Non-Clay surfaces Federer leads 5-2. In three meetings at Roland Garros Federer has taken three sets off Nadal while in two meetings at Wimbledon Nadal has taken three sets off Federer.

ATP and Grand Slam Main Draw Results

2007 Tennis Masters Cup, Hard, Federer, 6-4 6-1
2007 Wimbledon, Grass. Federer, 7-6(7) 4-6 7-6(3) 2-6 6-2
2007 Roland Garros, Clay, Nadal, 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4
2007 Masters Series Hamburg, Clay, Federer, 2-6 6-2 6-0
2007 Masters Series Monte Carlo, Clay, Nadal, 6-4 6-4
2006 Tennis Masters Cup, Hard, Federer, 6-4 7-5
2006 Wimbledon, Grass, Federer, 6-0 7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-3
2006 Roland Garros, Clay, Nadal, 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6(4)
2006 Masters Series Rome, Clay, Nadal, 6-7(0) 7-6(5) 6-4 2-6 7-6(5)
2006 Masters Series Monte Carlo, Clay, Nadal, 6-2 6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(5)
2006 Dubai, U.A.E., Hard, Nadal, 2-6 6-4 6-4
2005 Roland Garros, Clay, Nadal, 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-3
2005 Masters Series Miami, Hard, Federer, 2-6 6-7(4) 7-6(5) 6-3 6-1
2004 Miami AMS, Hard, Nadal, 6-3 6-3

There are so many ways to slice up their head to head competition. I think a big question in 2008 will be Rafa and injuries. So far Federer has avoided any injuries that hampered his play in big tournaments while in 2007 we saw Rafa in obvious pain at the US Open as well as several other tournaments where he appeared to be less than 100 percent. Unfortunately I see injuries continuing to hamper Rafa in 2008.

It will be interesting if Rafa can remain healthy through a pretty grueling calendar next year. With all that said I believe Federer has a date with becoming the Greatest of All Time and that he will drive to a Championship at Roland Garros before Rafa can hold the winners trophy atop his head at Centre Court.:mrgreen:

 

[Sarzy]

Some good posts. I voted for Nadal after seeing how close he came to winning at Wimbledon this year. Although some of the posts have made me re-think that. I would love nothing more than to see Federer win the French Open. That would be brilliant, I really do hope he makes it. I'm sure Nadal will win Wimbledon at some point.

 

[J-man]

In my opinion I think Federer has a mental block in his way of getting the French title, as well as Nadal of course.

Nadal on the other hand is afraid of Federer on grass. He's hungry gor more and believes that he can take Federer on his "territory". I think there is a better chance Of Nadal taking Wimbledon than Federer taking FO.

 

[babolat15]

i say nadal wins wimbledon

 

[Steve132]

Nadal is Federer's only obstacle at Roland Garros. If Nadal were injured or simply had a bad day at the office Federer would be the overwhelming favorite to win the French. He is 45-2 on clay over the past three years against players not named Nadal.

Nadal was closer to beating Federer at Wimbledon this year than Federer was to beating Nadal at Roland Garros. However, we can't assume that Nadal would win Wimbledon if Federer could not play or was upset in an early round. Nadal has far more potential rivals on grass than Federer has on clay - Djokovic, Roddick, Gasquet, Nalbandian, etc.

Another way of looking at this is: Federer is clearly the world's No. 2 player on clay. Nadal is not obviously the No. 2 on grass.

 

[plain jane]

how come no one has pointed out that Fed can also lose before the final of Roland Garros. Yes the prep for RG is more than for Wimbledon, but still Fed has failed to beat Nadal everytime at RG. I personally dont think that Rafa is going to win Wimbledon next year (Fed is still hard to beat on that green stuff), but I dont think Fed is going to win RG next year either. Answering the question, however, i say Fed probably has a better shot but I highly doubt it will happen (Rafa is still hard to beat on the red stuff)

 

[Stu1961]

I think a big question in 2008 will be Rafa and injuries. So far Federer has avoided any injuries that hampered his play in big tournaments while in 2007 we saw Rafa in obvious pain at the US Open as well as several other tournaments where he appeared to be less than 100 percent. Unfortunately I see injuries continuing to hamper Rafa in 2008.

Agreed. That's the factor which I think might give Federer the slight edge.

 

[matchmaker]

Everyone has mentioned the fact that Nadal has more oponents than Federer in the way of clinching the Wimbledon title, so before playing Federer in the final he is prone to be upset by some other player, which is true. But I do think that we have come to a point where I also see more people than only Nadal upset Federer before he gets to the final of the FO. Cañas, Nalbandian, Gonzalez, maybe Hewitt and not to forget Djokovic are IMO, certainly after this year where Fed has proven to be less perfect than last year, all capable of beating Federer on clay. So basically I think that next year might be different and that neither Nadal might get to the Wimby final, neither Federer to the Frenchy. Things being as they are Nadal got much closer to the Wimbledon title than Fed to the French Open title. My first prediction about the future would be that Federer is not going to make it to the FO final next year, from there on we will have to see what happens.

 

[Maestro Nalbandian]

I don't think Federer played particularly well in either the French or Wimbledon finals to be honest. Despite what the score might suggest Federer could easily have won the French open this year. There were two games in that match that I thought were critical when Federer had about 6 break points in each, one in the first and one in the third. Nadal won those games, I felt that if they had gone Federer's way he would have won both of those sets, and then probably the championships.

I think Federer is a much better clay courter than Nadal is a grass courter and while Federer will be 26, nearly 27 next year I think that these next three years will be the peak of his abilities and his best chances to take 1 or 2 possibly even 3 French Open's. Although obviously just one would be really good.

Some good points there. Federer didn't play as well in both French and Wimbledon as he did in AO and USO this year. Particularly his preparation for FO this year wasn't as ideal as last year where he reached two clay masters finals and came close to beat Nadal in Rome. Despite winning this year's Hamburg final against Nadal, the surface was however different to Roland Garros. Had he won Rome instead of Hamburg it would be a much better preparation for the FO. Yeah and those unconverted early break points definitely would have made the difference.

To say Federer might take 2 or 3 FOs is a little too optimistic. Unless Nadal seriously injure himself he is still going to win more FOs than Federer. Honestly I think Federer would be content with just 1.

 

[latinking]

As much as I like Nadal at Wimbeldon, I got to go with Fed at French. This is a big year for him, and maybe his best chance.

Both have a shot though. I don't see anyone but Nadal beating Fed at French, but Nadal can go down to a number of guys at Wimbeldon.

Can't wait for the new year!!!

 

[FedForGOAT]

Some people said that while Federer is #2 on clay, Nadal isn't clearly so on grass. I find that kind of funny because I remember Cahill and Pat Mcenroe arguing about who has the better chance Nadal at wimby, or Fed at the FO, and McEnroe used that same argument. Yet after the final, the overwhelming majority of people contended that Nadal was now far closer to winning wimby than fed was to winning the FO. now most people think that Fed has a better chance. I find it surprising how quickly people changed their minds.

That said, if Fed got/gets over his mental block when playing Nadal, I think Nadal has little chance of winning wimby, while Fed has a decent chance of winning RG.

 

[lucknowrocks]

For me it's much easier for Federer to get through the first two weeks at RG than it is for Nadal at Wimb. I honestly don't think that Nadal is the 2nd best grass courter in the world, even though the results portray him to be that. Nadal has been pushed by just about every power player he has played so far. If he easily beats Roddick, Djokovic, or Hewitt then he'll go up to number 2 in my book. Federer on the other hand has eased through the draw since being beaten by Kuerten. Thus, Nadal is more likely to lose in the days leading up to the final of each of the tournaments, however, the finals are a different story.

 

[Nickognito]

Federer to reach RG finals: 95%
Nadal to reach WIM finals: 45%
Federer to reach WIM Finals: 95%
Nadal to reach RG Finals: 95%
Federer to breat Nadal in RG: 15%
Nadal to beat Federer in WIM: 35%


so

Federer to win the French: 18%
Nadal to win Wimbledon: 16%

in my humble opinion

c.

 

[drakulie]

Nadal is not going to make it to the French Open Finals.

 

[futuretoptenner]

I think 2008 will be the year Roger Federer becomes the greatest tennis player of all time , winning all four grand slams in a calender year. Generally in the FO Federer has been stubborn and simply refusing to play to adapt , he will do anything this year to win the FO and even though his preparation was good, early this year on clay. Federer will train even harder , I can't see anyone stopping Federer on Clay , it'll be close, very close but I think Federer will opt to grind out the result , if Nadal is injury hampered then both the FO and Wimbledon will be Federer's next year.

 

[Nadal_Freak]

You also got to consider Nadal had a much tougher draw at Wimbledon than Fed had at the French Open to get to the finals. I could easily see Federer lose at the French Open if he gets a tough draw.

 

[anointedone]

You also got to consider Nadal had a much tougher draw at Wimbledon than Fed had at the French Open to get to the finals. I could easily see Federer lose at the French Open if he gets a tough draw.

Roger's draw at the French Open was tough considering todays field of clay courters. Robredo in the quarters, Davydenko in the semis. What on earth constitutes a harder draw among todays players. Davydenko was the 3rd best player in the world on clay this year, he is definitely better on clay then Djokovic. Robredo is probably a top 5 or 6 clay courter today.

 

[Cyan]

I see Fed has tons of fans in this forum. Let me remind you that Nadal was closer of winning Wimby this year than Fed was of winning RG. Nadal took 2 sets off Feddy at Wimby while Fed could only take one set off Rafa at RG. So looks like Nadal has better chances of winning Wimby than Fed of winning RG.

 

[Steve132]

I see Fed has tons of fans in this forum. Let me remind you that Nadal was closer of winning Wimby this year than Fed was of winning RG. Nadal took 2 sets off Feddy at Wimby while Fed could only take one set off Rafa at RG. So looks like Nadal has better chances of winning Wimby than Fed of winning RG.

As has been pointed out before, Soderling and Youzhny were far closer to beating Nadal at Wimbledon than anyone was to beating Federer in his run up to the French Open final.

 

[Maestro Nalbandian]

As has been pointed out before, Soderling and Youzhny were far closer to beating Nadal at Wimbledon than anyone was to beating Federer in his run up to the French Open final.

Don't forget also Djokovic won the first set against Nadal in the semis before he got injured. If anyone he would be the biggest threat to Nadal to reach the final.

 

[Heavy Metal Tennis Star]

the poll doesnt really matter since those 2 are very disliked around here, cuz we have lots of americans here, and those 2 always own roddick.

 

[Cyan]

the poll doesnt really matter since those 2 are very disliked around here, cuz we have lots of americans here, and those 2 always own roddick.

Yeah the wonderful days of Sampras and Agassi are long gone....

 

[Young=Ego]

Djokovic? Nah, he's still got a long way to come.

Don't forget also Djokovic won the first set against Nadal in the semis before he got injured. If anyone he would be the biggest threat to Nadal to reach the final.

But that doesn't necessarly mean a lot. It's a five set match, and winning the first set is not that significant in the grand scheme of the match. Besides, some players need time to warm up and kick in before they actually start playing their best. For example, in 5 set matches, Lleyton Hewitt generally has to lose the first two sets before he actually starts playing his best, and then wins the next three and takes the match.

 

[Zaragoza]

Nadal is not obviously the No. 2 on grass.

Really? How did you come to that conclusion? And don´t tell me that Queen´s is relevant because first, it´s a small tournament and second, Nadal is exhausted after RG and takes it as a practice on grass whereas others like Roddick who lose early in RG are fresh and have been practicing on grass for more than one week. Wimbledon is the only big tournament on grass and the only one that Nadal takes and can take seriously. Nobody after Federer is even close to Nadal in Wimbledon in the last 2 years.

 

[Steve132]

Really? How did you come to that conclusion? And don´t tell me that Queen´s is relevant because first, it´s a small tournament and second, Nadal is exhausted after RG and takes it as a practice on grass whereas others like Roddick who lose early in RG are fresh and have been practicing on grass for more than one week. Wimbledon is the only big tournament on grass and the only one that Nadal takes and can take seriously. Nobody after Federer is even close to Nadal in Wimbledon in the last 2 years.

Obviously if you rule out all evidence that is inconsistent with your basic thesis (Queen's, the results of tournaments more than two years old) you will achieve your desired result. This is called wishful thinking, not rational analysis.

 

[MEAC_ALLAMERICAN]

How about Federer wins the French and Wimbledon in 2008? Well, that's what I think, but who knows?

2008 holds a lot of questions for Federer, and Nadal and if they can sustain their dominance.

 

[Katlion]

Nadal will NOT win Wimbledon before Roger Federer wins the French. Federer owns Wimbledon. I think that Roger Federer is the second best clay court player. Even many commentators say so. But Rafael Nadal is definitley NOT the second best grass court player in the world. There are many players that have better grass court games than he does. Also, Roger Federer knows how to beat Rafael Nadal on caly. It's just something mental. If he didn't know how to do it, he wouldn't have beaten Rafael in the finals of Madrid...

Therefore, Roger Federer will win Roland Garros before Rafael Nadal wins Wimbledon.........

 

[BlahDow]

the poll doesnt really matter since those 2 are very disliked around here, cuz we have lots of americans here, and those 2 always own roddick.

i didn't know americans supported american players so much =/...after agassi and sampras i thought there really wasn't much left...i myself am a nadal fan -_-.....as for my choice...i'd hate to say it but federer is more likely to win the french.

 

[MichaelNadal]

The funny thing is I think if somehow Nadal doesnt win the french or doesn't make it to the finals than Federer wont win Wimby.... I see that happening.

 

[Maestro Nalbandian]

But that doesn't necessarly mean a lot. It's a five set match, and winning the first set is not that significant in the grand scheme of the match. Besides, some players need time to warm up and kick in before they actually start playing their best. For example, in 5 set matches, Lleyton Hewitt generally has to lose the first two sets before he actually starts playing his best, and then wins the next three and takes the match.

Yes winning the first set doesn't necessarily mean he will win the match like I think it was Sorderling or Younzhny who had an 2 sets to 1 lead to Nadal and still lost in the end. but in the case of that semi final match, Djokovic actually had the upper hand controlling most points and was winning until he got injured. He wasn't afraid of Nadal on grass it seemed unlike rest of players.

 

[caulcano]

The funny thing is I think if somehow Nadal doesnt win the french or doesn't make it to the finals than Federer wont win Wimby.... I see that happening.

You mean Federer will win the FO & Nadal Wimbledon? I can't see that happening.

 

[Maestro Nalbandian]

How about Federer wins the French and Wimbledon in 2008? Well, that's what I think, but who knows?

2008 holds a lot of questions for Federer, and Nadal and if they can sustain their dominance.

I get the feeling 2008 may turns out to be a very different season. Federer might win everything including Olympic Gold or might lose a lot to the likes of Nadal, Djoker and Nalby.

I hope it would be the former.

 

[seestern]

Roger's draw at the French Open was tough considering todays field of clay courters. Robredo in the quarters, Davydenko in the semis. What on earth constitutes a harder draw among todays players. Davydenko was the 3rd best player in the world on clay this year, he is definitely better on clay then Djokovic. Robredo is probably a top 5 or 6 clay courter today.

bads points. Write off Davy, he did lose before stepping on court. Robredo is neutralised as cake walk for Fed anywhere

 

[Nadal_Freak]

Federer to reach RG finals: 95%
Nadal to reach WIM finals: 45%
Federer to reach WIM Finals: 95%
Nadal to reach RG Finals: 95%
Federer to breat Nadal in RG: 15%
Nadal to beat Federer in WIM: 35%


so

Federer to win the French: 18%
Nadal to win Wimbledon: 16%

in my humble opinion

c.

Fed 95% chance to get to French Open Final? :lol:

 

[Zaragoza]

Obviously if you rule out all evidence that is inconsistent with your basic thesis (Queen's, the results of tournaments more than two years old) you will achieve your desired result. This is called wishful thinking, not rational analysis.

I already made my point about Queen´s before and anyone who doesn´t see how Roland Garros and Queen´s results are related each other is not making a rational analysis indeed.
And of course I´m not counting results older than 2 years because that´s a lot of time in tennis and we are talking about current results. By those standards Safin and Hewitt could be considered top players on hardcourts right now.

 

[Zaragoza]

But Rafael Nadal is definitley NOT the second best grass court player in the world. There are many players that have better grass court games than he does.

Really? And why did they have worse results than him in the last 2 years?

 

[anointedone]

Really? And why did they have worse results than him in the last 2 years?

I guess they are going by results of Queens Club. Which makes no sense since Queens Club isnt even close to as big as a Masters event. It really is nothing more then to prepare the player how they want for Wimbledon. Sampras even had a low success rate of winning Queens and had some bizarre losses there.

Hewitt and Roddick have won the last 2 Queens events, but I doubt that soothed them much after their premature exits at Wimbledon. I wonder what either would have said after their upset quarterfinal defeats (Hewitt to Baghdatis last year, Roddick to Gasquet this year) "well dont feel too bad, you won the so prestigious Queens club event." :twisted:

 

[NadalandFedererfan]

Wouldnt it be cool if Nadal lets Federer win both next year, then Federer lets Nadal win both next year. That way Federer can win the Calender Slam, and Nadal can win the French-Wimbledon double.
Just dreaming though, both guys are too competitive and would never let that happen. They are the nicest guys off the court and the most cutthroat on it.

 

[Maestro Nalbandian]

Wouldnt it be cool if Nadal lets Federer win both next year, then Federer lets Nadal win both next year. That way Federer can win the Calender Slam, and Nadal can win the French-Wimbledon double.
Just dreaming though, both guys are too competitive and would never let that happen. They are the nicest guys off the court and the most cutthroat on it.

Sound like a good deal to both guys I don't think Federer would mind Nadal getting a Wimbledon title as long as he gets the French first.

On a serious note, this might just happen. Federer are more likely to win the calender slam in the next two years than later. Remember he is already 26. Nadal however has got plenty of time to win the French Wimbledon double.

 

[Katlion]

Yeah, when Roger retires, the crown of all crowns will be Rafa's, unless someone else sneaks up, and snatches it to become the reining Wimbledon champ the way Roger is now.

 

[Katlion]

The funny thing is I think if somehow Nadal doesnt win the french or doesn't make it to the finals than Federer wont win Wimby.... I see that happening.

Please don't call Wimbledon "Wimby". It is an insult to the most prestigious tennis tournament of all times.... :evil: