Which is more likely to happen, Nadal losing Roland Garros Final, or Djokovic losing Australian Open Final?

Which is more likely to happen?

  • Nadal French Open Final Loss

  • Djokovic Australian Open Loss


Results are only viewable after voting.
I’m gonna go with the guy who’s lost way more at his pet schlem and actually been pushed to 5 multiple times is more likely to be upset in a hypothetical F.
 

ADuck

Legend
This is not a myth, no?

“The 19-year-old Spaniard and world No. 7 won his second Masters 1000 title of 2022 by destroying No. 3 and defending champion Alexander Zverev, 6-3, 6-1, in 62 minutes in Sunday’s Madrid final. Alcaraz improved to 28-3 this season and has won four titles, including his first Masters 1000 crown in Miami. He has now beaten the world’s No. 1 (Novak Djokovic), No. 3 (Zverev), No. 4 (Rafael Nadal) and No. 9 (Cam Norrie) players in the span of four days.”
And what surface has he won a slam on?
 

roysid

Hall of Fame
Historically nobody challenged Nadal in the FO final while djoker had two close saves in 2012 and 2020 finals.

But from 2021 onwards i think its more likely nadal will lose in fo final facing a strong opponent than Djokovic who is close to unbeatable by then.

Well before 2021 fo, neither of these players have lost in fo af and ao sf too. But nadal lost in fo sf. Djoker is still undefeated at ao semis or above
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Historically nobody challenged Nadal in the FO final while djoker had two close saves in 2012 and 2020 finals.

But from 2021 onwards i think its more likely nadal will lose in fo final facing a strong opponent than Djokovic who is close to unbeatable by then.

Well before 2021 fo, neither of these players have lost in fo af and ao sf too. But nadal lost in fo sf. Djoker is still undefeated at ao semis or above
Djokovic did well to lose early in years when he would have probably (in some years definitely) lost in AO semifinal or final, like 2009, 2010, 2017, 2018.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
In my opinion he definitely looked inferior in the tennis level when Djokovic played non drunk way.
Thiem should have taken care of that match, just like Medvedev should have taken care of AO '22. But they can't. They get so eager to win, that they start changing winning strategies for losing ones. Thiem sprayed and hit DFs on decisive points in that final. He played great in set 2 and 3, because there was no pressure in those sets.

More than willing to settle on "agree to disagree" :)
 
Last edited:

Djokovic_is_the_best#1

Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic did well to lose early in years when he would have probably (in some years definitely) lost in AO semifinal or final, like 2009, 2010, 2017, 2018.
I agree that Djokovic would have probably lost in the latter stages those years as he wasn’t playing as well as his rivals in them years. Had he scrapped through then probably the semi or final undefeated streak would have ended.
 
Djokovic, but because he's more likely to reach the final while way below his best.
I agree that Joker’s more likely to lose in a hypothetical F, but I gotta disagree with the bolded. When he’s not been at or close to his best he typically doesn’t make the F. In 09-10, 14, 17-18 he was out even before the SF. And honestly he should have been out in the 4R of 13 Stan had bothered to challenge that bad call in the 5th.
 
Thiem should have taken care of that match, just like Medvedev should have taken care of AO '22. But they can't. They get so eager to win, that they start changing winning strategies for losing ones. Thiem sprayed and hit DFs on decisive points in that final. He played great in set 2 and 3, because there was no pressure in those sets.

More than willing to settle on "agree to disagree" :)
He played at more or less the same level throughout the match, it was Djokovic whose level was fluctuating a lot.
 
Nadal has a more intimidating aura as an opponent in a RG final plus there are fewer serious challengers on clay compared to HC. However, looking at their health and overall recent level of play, Djokovic seems likelier to make the final at the AO.
 

socallefty

Legend
Djokovic has beaten Nadal twice at the FO including in a semifinal just a year ago. If they meet in the FO final, there’s a chance that a Djokovic in top clay form can beat him again as he has beaten him in other clay finals. Some of his fans say Nadal was injured in the 2021 semi, but with the frequency with which he gets injured, who is to say that it won’t happen again when he plays a grueling match against Djokovic.

I don’t believe in any of the other players as being good enough to beat Djokovic in the AO final. To see that happen, likely Nadal has to do it himself by calling upon his hard court game from ten years ago. The chance of this happening is much lower.
 
Depends on Nadal's health. Since being reinjured at Wimbledon he looks all sorts of bad on a tennis court (US Open he looked pathetic) . Djokovic still looks very solid. As of now, I would say Djokovic is much tougher to beat than Nadal on every surface. Its possible Nadal can add another slam or two buts its also possible he never gets out of the first week of a slam again. Hes got 10x the wear and tear of Djokovic
 

Djokovic_is_the_best#1

Talk Tennis Guru
Depends on Nadal's health. Since being reinjured at Wimbledon he looks all sorts of bad on a tennis court (US Open he looked pathetic) . Djokovic still looks very solid. As of now, I would say Djokovic is much tougher to beat than Nadal on every surface. Its possible Nadal can add another slam or two buts its also possible he never gets out of the first week of a slam again. Hes got 10x the wear and tear of Djokovic
Currently though, Djokovic can only play 2 of the 4 slams. Therefore, let’s see how things look into next year.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
For me, the question comes down to a few things:

For Nadal:
1. Does he maintain his level for a while? A slow loss of level will result in a pretty high chance of seeing at least 1 more final.
2. Does someone eclipse him at RG before he retires? If his level declines slowly, for him to lose a final, he'd need a challenger to be better. That'd take ATG-level play for any Nadal given just how good he is.

For Djokovic:
1. When he declines, how rapid is it? Djokovic will no doubt soon be eclipsed on hard courts, but the question is if he'll have the level to make a final when it happens. If no, his record remains intact. If yes, he'll lose the perfect record.

I think it's likelier that Djokovic is eclipsed by multiple players at once at the AO than just being surpassed by one. On the other hand, I believe the opposite is true for Nadal (excepting an injury that ends his career). Due to this, I think Nadal's likelier to lose an RG final - simply because he's likelier to get there.
 
Top