Which of the following scenarios is MOST likely in 2019?

Which of the following scenarios is MOST likely in 2019?

  • CYGS for Nole (and the equivalent of 6 slams in a row dating back to Wimbledon 2018)

    Votes: 21 28.0%
  • Nadal wins Wimbledon

    Votes: 23 30.7%
  • Fed wins USO

    Votes: 12 16.0%
  • Zverev wins a slam

    Votes: 11 14.7%
  • Thiem wins the FO

    Votes: 8 10.7%

  • Total voters
    75
#1
I think talk of the CYGS will start up with Nole's unbelievable performance at the AO. I think it would be exciting to see but a lot stands in the way.

Then again, who would have foreseen Nole's decline after the FO 2016 and the resurgence of Fedal since then?

None of the scenarios below is likely. The question is which is MOST likely given all of the circumstances before us in January 2019?
 
#5
You spelt "unbelievable" incorrectly.

Nadal winning Wimbledon ----------- I suppose. Not an easy choice for me. They all seem rather unlikely.
"Unbelievable" is spelled the way I spelled it! Which dictionary are you using?

I voted for Zverev. I think he's a dark horse at the FO and a major contender at Wimbledon and the USO.
 
#10
Basically TTW can be summarized as follows: 1) Hype about the recent accomplishment that results in irrational predictions (like these ;)
2) Underrating players based on bad form in one match.

Recent example: Zverev gets hyped to high heavens for straight-setting Novak in December. Now the very idea of him winning a major this year seems preposterous.

I'm guilty of all this too, by the way.
 
#11
Surprised folks are still betting so heavy on Zverev who has yet to break the slam QF barrier.

If he cannot show up in Australia, after the long tennis season's only extended break, how do you think his performance will be later in the year when his legs won't have as much spring left in them?

I'd rather bet on Raonic who showed great form returning from injury than Zverev to win Wimbledon or the USO. We know these guys can forget about the French - that's either Nadal or Novak.
 
#12
Surprised folks are still betting so heavy on Zverev who has yet to break the slam QF barrier.

If he cannot show up in Australia, after the long tennis season's only extended break, how do you think his performance will be later in the year when his legs won't have as much spring left in them?

I'd rather bet on Raonic who showed great form returning from injury than Zverev to win Wimbledon or the USO. We know these guys can forget about the French - that's either Nadal or Novak.
Beating Fed and Djoker (the two greatest indoor players and WTF champs ever) back to back and in straight sets is a major accomplishment.

The guy WILL get his head on straight and when that happens, he WILL bully most of the tour. I'm just not sure if 2019 is the year.
 
#13
Beating Fed and Djoker (the two greatest indoor players and WTF champs ever) back to back and in straight sets is a major accomplishment.

The guy WILL get his head on straight and when that happens, he WILL bully most of the tour. I'm just not sure if 2019 is the year.
We're still talking about the slams right?

There is a big jump to be made from winning Masters to winning slams. Look at Djokovic's early career. Very few players have won their first slam finals.

I agree he has a great future, but the context of the this thread is what is most likely to happen in 2019.

In that regard, I stand by my analysis.
 
#14
We're still talking about the slams right?

There is a big jump to be made from winning Masters to winning slams. Look at Djokovic's early career. Very few players have won their first slam finals.

I agree he has a great future, but the context of the this thread is what is most likely to happen in 2019.

In that regard, I stand by my analysis.
I don't fundamentally disagree with you. I mean I am a Zverev fan but don't yet have great faith in his prospects to win a slam in 2019. Like a lot of people here, I was shocked to see him go past Fed and Novak at the WTF last year.

He's still a raw talent that has underachieved at slams. No doubt about that. But he is a threat to win any tournament he enters nevertheless.
 
#15
I don't fundamentally disagree with you. I mean I am a Zverev fan but don't yet have great faith in his prospects to win a slam in 2019. Like a lot of people here, I was shocked to see him go past Fed and Novak at the WTF last year.

He's still a raw talent that has underachieved at slams. No doubt about that. But he is a threat to win any tournament he enters nevertheless.
Not every tournament is the same and that's really the crux of the matter. I would like to see him break the QF curse first before giving any more credence to his slam chances. Let him beat at least one or two top guys on the way to a semi or better then we can give him more benefit of doubt.

Even the matches he wins up to the Quarters in slams are unnecessarily extended; he loses more sets than he should given the quality of player he is. Until he discovers a form that is efficient (which speaks really of mental steadiness and maturity) to get past lower ranked players with confidence, I don't see him winning 7 BO5 in a row in the near future.
 
#17
Surprised folks are still betting so heavy on Zverev who has yet to break the slam QF barrier.

If he cannot show up in Australia, after the long tennis season's only extended break, how do you think his performance will be later in the year when his legs won't have as much spring left in them?

I'd rather bet on Raonic who showed great form returning from injury than Zverev to win Wimbledon or the USO. We know these guys can forget about the French - that's either Nadal or Novak.
Otherwise agree, but my bet would be that rather than Raonic winning Wimbledon or USO he has some nagging injury at that point of the season.
 
#27
they all seem almost equally unlikely to me. it will be interesting to see if any actually happen. i know
the one i'd most like to see is the CYGS for Nole.
 
#29
Wouldn't ever imagine writing, but CYGS is most realistic among all four options.
Yeah I know, he really picked some doozies for choices! :)
Let's think about this one though for a moment.
No one has won a CYGS since Laver more than 50 years ago.
So now a 32 year old (who is reaching the end of his career), will win one. LOL!
 
#30
Beating Fed and Djoker (the two greatest indoor players and WTF champs ever) back to back and in straight sets is a major accomplishment.

The guy WILL get his head on straight and when that happens, he WILL bully most of the tour. I'm just not sure if 2019 is the year.
Just look at the way Djokovic crushed him in RR and the way Federer and Djokovic played in the knockout phase. The match is 100% on the old men's racket. And there's none of that WTFF Djoko peformances in the 2nd week of Slams, he's gonna show up and be ready to slaughter.

Zverev is 0/7 vs top 20 players in Grand Slams. He made the QF in RG 2018, but has only regressed since then. He has the tennis to make semi's but for now he's not miles, but maybe kilometers away from winning Grand Slams
 
#31
Probably Nadal winning Wimbledon IF he can play as well as last year. Zed winning a slam I think maybe possible at USO which seems to be the slam that throws up surprise winners in recent years. Fed winning the USO at this point I cannot see. Djokovic winning all 4 is possible but feel like he is bound to slip up at one
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#32
Out of all these scenarios?

Nadal winning Wimbledon is the most likely possibility.

I highly doubt Djokovic is winning six in a row, chances are very low.

Thiem and Zverev are about even.

Federer probably a little lower than those two.
 
#33
The problem with some people here (being kind) is that you believe that time stands still from slam to slam.
Players don't age, their game doesn't change, they sustain no injuries, their confidence is always on a never-ending upward
trajectory, they never have a bad night's sleep or a bad day at the office, etc. etc.
 
#34
IMO each of them are unlikely. Most likely though for me is a toss up between CYGS for Djokovic or a first slam for Zverev. I voted for CYGS for Djokovic, but now thinking maybe I should have a 1st slam for Zverev. A RG title for Theim and a Wimbledon for Nadal are both slightly behind those. Least likely of all is Federer winning the U.S Open, Federer winning Wimbledon would probably be last of those had it been on the poll instead, and yet Federer winning Wimbledon is far more likely than him winning the U.S Open (or any non Wimbledon) at this point.
 
#35
IMO each of them are unlikely. Most likely though for me is a toss up between CYGS for Djokovic or a first slam for Zverev. I voted for CYGS for Djokovic, but now thinking maybe I should have a 1st slam for Zverev.
If Djoker couldn't win a CYGS when he was in beast 'Djoker II' mode a few years ago, he ain't gonna do it now.
 
#37
No one has won a CYGS since Laver more than 50 years ago.
So now a 32 year old (who is reaching the end of his career), will win one. LOL!
Well, Laver was 31 when he achieved his CYGS... :p

All these are unlikely. Considering the current state of the field, with the heavy dominance of Djodal and the unsolved mental weakness of Zverev at Slams, Nadal's WIM (if Djoker fails) or Djokovic's CYGS seem the less unlikely to happen.
 
#38
Rafa would have won Wimbledon last year if it hadn't met Djokovic, so I'm going with that one. My guess:

1. Nadal wins Wimbledon
2. Zverev wins a Slam
3. Fed wins USO
...
...
...
4. Djokovic CYGS
5. Thiem wins FO
Fed has a bigger chance of winning CYGS than Zverev to win a slam.
 
#40
The field isn't weaker, just 2 of the BIG 3 are.
And as the 2 continue to get weaker, Djoker will continue to get stronger and stronger?
The poll was asking which was most likely, not if any of them are likely. I already specified I dont think any of these are likely, I wouldnt give any of them more than 25% chance frankly. However the others are so unlikely that I would pick Djokovic CYGS or Zverev 1st slam (which has almost no votes unlike Djokovic CYGS) as most likely of all the unlikelies. Meanwhile Nadal winning Wimbledon getting the most votes after Djokovic just humiliated him in the Australian Open final, and when apart from last year he has been crap there ever since 2011, is pretty funny.

It could be argued Djokovic winning the CYGS in 2015 was likely but didnt happen inspite of that. No Djokovic wont likely get stronger level wise than what he showed at the AO, but Federer and Nadal are slowing down a lot faster than he is, Wawrinka (a personal nemisis, and the reason he didnt do the 2015 slam and lost some other slams) and Murray are totally dunzo, and the up and comers still sort of suck.
 
#41
I think a lot of people are now making predictions based on the fact that Roger lost to Stefanos but in reality it's all speculation. Until a clear trend is established this year. Like after Novak injured his elbow and other things going on in his life that it was over for him and then he comes back and reels off 3 GS in a row, who could have predicted that?
I think it's all going to come down to 3 factors, which of the three guys ( RF, RN, NJ) are going to age quicker, get more career threatening injuries and out of the younger guys, who is going to show the level of consistency to take over.
I thought while watching Milos Raonic in the early rounds the AO that he looked quite devasting and then to see him lose was quite disappointing for him.
 
#42
I think a lot of people are now making predictions based on the fact that Roger lost to Stefanos but in reality it's all speculation. Until a clear trend is established this year. Like after Novak injured his elbow and other things going on in his life that it was over for him and then he comes back and reels off 3 GS in a row, who could have predicted that?
I think it's all going to come down to 3 factors, which of the three guys ( RF, RN, NJ) are going to age quicker, get more career threatening injuries and out of the younger guys, who is going to show the level of consistency to take over.
I thought while watching Milos Raonic in the early rounds the AO that he looked quite devasting and then to see him lose was quite disappointing for him.
RF is 6 years older than NJ. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion who is aging quicker and will continue to between those two. Federer will probably be retired before Djokovic is done winning slams.

Meanwnile RN is only 1 year older than NJ but his body might as well be 10 years older, he is probably even further past his physical prime than RF in many ways. And their joke of an AO final already makes it clear who is aging faster between those two.

It is funny you still hold out hope for Raonic winning slams though. Never going to happen.

Lastly even for those who still have high hopes for Federer going forward his winning the U.S Open getting few votes in this thread makes sense of a very simple mode of logic. Last U.S Open final was way back in 2009. His last RG final is more recent than that. Obviously based on anything remotedly recent his best chance of future slams is Wimbledon, with the Australian Open a strong 2nd.
 
#43
"Unbelievable" is spelled the way I spelled it! Which dictionary are you using?

I voted for Zverev. I think he's a dark horse at the FO and a major contender at Wimbledon and the USO.
I think Zverev is a dark horse in a dark room with blinders on and he can't see his way out to get past those mental demons that prevent him from being great.
 
#44
RF is 6 years older than NJ. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion who is aging quicker and will continue to between those two. Federer will probably be retired before Djokovic is done winning slams.

Meanwnile RN is only 1 year older than NJ but his body might as well be 10 years older, he is probably even further past his physical prime than RF in many ways. And their joke of an AO final already makes it clear who is aging faster between those two.

It is funny you still hold out hope for Raonic winning slams though. Never going to happen.
Well based on conventional wisdom what you say is correct, the problem is that life is unpredictable. Andy Murray at age 31 and Delpo at age 30 is a case.
As far as Raonic, he is not the only guy people have been holding off that have not broken through. We have seen off two waves of players and now we are looking at guys who are 19 and 20 to do something.
 
#46
I wonder if Novak - though brimming with confidence right now - thinks it's possible to run the table. As great as he is, that's a huge ask! Now if he does it, I think he'd go to the top of most people's GOAT rankings, for what that's worth. (including mine)

Nadal played well enough to win W last year, so I went with that. Fed winning W, if a choice, may have been my pick. I simply don't think he's in a major decline yet, and with his game and experience is always a threat. I also think Sascha is way too talented not to start winning slams, and Thiem will probably bag a FO or two, but I don't envision it for this year.
 

BGod

Hall of Fame
#47
I've been saying Calendar Slam for Novak is better than 50% if he wins French.

Nadal has made WMB quarter once in 7 years so that's out.

Zverev isn't ready.

Thiem isn't ready.

Fed has made 1 USO Final in 9 years so no.
 
#48
I wonder if Novak - though brimming with confidence right now - thinks it's possible to run the table. As great as he is, that's a huge ask! Now if he does it, I think he'd go to the top of most people's GOAT rankings, for what that's worth. (including mine)
Anyway, someone asked him a question during the press conference... he answered this was the "impossible" ultimate challenge, then explained how he'd prepare for clay / RG and who he'd have to face and win against. Looks like he's taking it step by step, focusing on the next big target (and that main target is obviously RG - not stacking more M1000s...). So, I do think he has this goal somewhere in his head - after all, he already got a NCYGS in the past, so it's not surprising he'd be looking for the real thing.
 
#50
I've been saying Calendar Slam for Novak is better than 50% if he wins French.

Nadal has made WMB quarter once in 7 years so that's out.

Zverev isn't ready.

Thiem isn't ready.

Fed has made 1 USO Final in 9 years so no.
The CYGS is the Holy Grail basically.

I would NOT say that it is better than 50% if he wins the first two slams, as there are several guys that can take him out at both Wimbledon and the USO.
Moreover, if injuries didn't get to him (let's not forget his age and inherent susceptibility), then he'd have to be an absolute rock mentally heading into the USO (where he has a poor record in finals).
 
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