I saw on twitter that Paris is a touch slower than last year
I agree with your list.
People really discount Isner and Raonic as if they cannot win matches, and their games are more hit or miss than ultra solid, and eventually they will just lose to someone like Nole, Murray, etc... I think they can catch some fire, they both just need to improve their returns, backhand, and movement.
Although I voted for Tsonga, I actually think it's just going to be the Novak and Murray show for a while, with Murray occasionally suffering losses every now and then, in which that case Fed might grab a few more wins - unless of course the topic of this thread happens, and someone breaks through.
Rafa on clay still unless he really is somehow hurt, which I personally haven't seen any real visual disabilities in him during these matches, except maybe a few of those WTF where it seemed he didn't run for balls/try and Fed wiped him up