UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
WTA has been notoriously unpredictable in the recent decade, especially the last few seasons, but there are certain indicators that may help in at least predicting which of the slam holders have a chance.
"Instagrammity factor" basically means how high the "social media corruption/distraction levels" are. The higher the instagrammity the lower the odds of maximizing one's potential.
Raducanu ----------- 0% chance of winning ----------- very high instagrammity
Personification of fluke-slam wonder, she will improve compared to this year but will never come close to another such title. In fact I am not even convinced she will win a WTA 250 any time soon; she has no major weapons and her only real skill is running down other people's winners - but considering that she doesn't train as much she used to she has slowed down so... but who knows, she may become a top 30 fixture one day. She is on the right track with Tursunov, who has already improved her somewhat. Besides, she has no choice: after USO22 she will fall way down, out of the top 70, so she will have to fight hard again just to make it to the main draws. Either that or she can retire at 20, 21, or semi-retire like the legendary failure Bouchard. I hope she can stabilize herself - and spend less time on her mobile phone...
Andreeeeeeescu ------ 5% -------- high instagrammity
Very difficult to predict because I get the impression she doesn't work off-court as hard as she should. If she gives it her all then one day she can achieve a lot again, but the way she is now she's not even top 30 material. Pity, because she has a big game, and is charismatic. She'd be great for tennis.
RybaChina --------- 1% -------- low instagrammity
Huge game; if she had been properly coached from an early age - like the privileged kids were/are - she'd have been a Wunderkind by now, hyped just like Gauff, and would have broken through years earlier while a teen. What most tennis fans don't know is that she wasn't even close to being coached seriously: as a child, she basically played tennis just once or twice a week in a large group for an hour, which is certainly NOT how you become a slam champion. Yet, despite this, she did it. (She's like a mini-McEnroe almost, in that sense.) However, aside from starting late, her most real hindrance is that her confidence is not high, she has self-doubts and generally shows weakness on big points. If she ever repeats her slam success it'd be most likely again on grass, much smaller chances on HC, zero on clay, but I am very doubtful she will win another slam. Her finals score is pitiful, she fails to excel in key moments and she lacks championship mentality. She is just a slightly better version of a one-slam-wonder like Raducanu.
Sweetek ----------- 95% -------- low instagrammity
Just a question of when, not if.
Kenina --------- 5% ---------- instagrammity unknown, presumed medium
Quite talented, but her long injury break reveals great insecurity and self-doubts. Very difficult to say whether she can climb back up, she certainly has the skill-set. If she makes her way back to the top 50 by December then her odds go up to 30%. If she reaches that target in more than a year then it's 15%.
Stephens --------- 0% -------- very high instagrammity
Very good skills, but no. Very obviously one of those "it's just a job" pros who only do the minimum work required to stay competitive. She plays only for the money, she lacks the work ethic and high ambition to do it again. Besides, statistically-speaking 5 years is the limit for a WTA pro to win a second slam, and that 5-year limit expires at this year's USO. So definitely not.
Serena -------- 0% ---------- instagrammity irrelevant
She is surrounded by yes-men, just like Djokovic, and just like him exists within her own Fantasy World Bubble, but unlike him she is no longer a slam contender nor even properly active as a player. Hobby pro, basically, hoping to sneak in one more slam before retirement - which is so phenomenally optimistic. But then again, who knows: USO organizers might fix the draw to make it easier for her, as usual she will get no time violation warnings for serving after 40 seconds, and will not get DQed even if she punches an umpire in the face. The entire western Establishment and media are pulling for her, just so she can overtake Court, so who knows, with that kind of HELP she may even reach R4...?
Muguruza --------- 3% ------------ high instagrammity
Very arrogant, and convinced she knows it all, which I am certain is a great disadvantage and annoys the hell out of her coaches. I believe that Martinez is basically wasting her time trying to coach this uncoachable diva to more slam glory. Martinez is basically there just to bring her towels and pick up the balls, at least that's my impression. Garbina appears to be obstinate and not very hard-working. Her confidence took a nosedive since winning her slams, and especially after losing the AO final. Age is catching up slowly and before you know it she will be past her prime and no longer even potentially dangerous at the slams. Good thing she doesn't know this yet...
Krejcikova --------- 0% ---------------- instagrammity unknown, presumed low
She is the textbook fluke slam winner. As soon as she converted that MP vs Pavlyuchenkova I knew it was her 1st and last slam title. Got lucky at FO21 when it was a total free-for-all. Any of those 4 SFists could have won it. Well, it had to be somebody, and she got it. Kudos for that achievement, for vulturing it properly, but no way in hell she wins more. In doubles however she can win tons more.
Kvitova -------- 5% -------------- low instagrammity
Kvitova never kvits, and for that I admire her, but realistically she needs a very good draw and all the other stars to align just right. Age is against her.
Azarenka ------- 3% ----------- low instagrammity
A big fighter, very professional, but she's way past her prime. Age is Against her.
Ostapinko -------- 3% --------- instagrammity unknown, presumed high
A mindless ball-basher who hits EVERY ball as hard as she can, just like her loony eccentric compatriot Gulbis. But unlike him, she won a slam. She won one because Halep was in one of her mental-midgety slam finals/semis, many of such matches that she'd botched. Ostapinko should buy Halep a limo or a flat every time for her birthday, for the next 25 years... No, I don't believe Ostapinko is a serious contender, because she overrates herself, because she plays D-U-M-B and because slams aren't won by bashing every ball as if it's the last. Also, her 5-year period is up: statistically, if you don't win a 2nd slam within the next 5 years, you never do. Thank God for that...
Kerber ---------- 5% ----------- low instagrammity
I hope she doesn't. But with her fighting spirit, you never can be quite sure...
Halep --------- 10% ----------- very low instagrammity
A consummate pro, Halep is doing EVERYTHING to win a 3rd slam, she even hired Muratoglu which means she is desperate and willing to try even Bosnian Pyramids next if Muratoglu fails. Unfortunately, Simona piles up so much needless pressure on herself that she's even had panic attacks on the court. Hence I can't imagine her mental state should she ever serve again for a set or a match in a slam final. She'll probably fall apart. 3rd slam is not impossible but somehow I doubt it... She's her own worst enemy, just too fanatically ambitious, unable to relax and enjoy her matches more.
Osaka ----------- 50% ----------- very high instagrammity
Predicting the career trajectory of this over-sensitive diva is practically impossible. She might retire next week, or she might win 10 more slams. Anyone's guess. She has the kind of game that can crush everybody into smithereens, but because she acts like a whiny kid, she is tough to figure out. She seems to become more immature with age, which is very unusual. (Then again, Djokovic...)
Conclusions:
There won't be many repeat winners, at least not from this bunch above. So we can expect even more chaos with a bunch new Instagram stars being created after the next new dozen or so slam winners. I expect that from the next 15 slams probably 10 will be newbies.
According to me, there are as many as 50-70 potential new slam winners on the WTA. The top 100 is brimming with capable women desperate to snatch a slam - and because SO MANY now believe it's possible, they will make it possible. Unlike the ATP - where none of the slam-less wonders believe in themselves (except Sinner and Alcatraz) - the WTA has a very healthy competitive atmosphere within which almost anyone can beat anyone hence anyone can take the glory titles...
"Instagrammity factor" basically means how high the "social media corruption/distraction levels" are. The higher the instagrammity the lower the odds of maximizing one's potential.
Raducanu ----------- 0% chance of winning ----------- very high instagrammity
Personification of fluke-slam wonder, she will improve compared to this year but will never come close to another such title. In fact I am not even convinced she will win a WTA 250 any time soon; she has no major weapons and her only real skill is running down other people's winners - but considering that she doesn't train as much she used to she has slowed down so... but who knows, she may become a top 30 fixture one day. She is on the right track with Tursunov, who has already improved her somewhat. Besides, she has no choice: after USO22 she will fall way down, out of the top 70, so she will have to fight hard again just to make it to the main draws. Either that or she can retire at 20, 21, or semi-retire like the legendary failure Bouchard. I hope she can stabilize herself - and spend less time on her mobile phone...
Andreeeeeeescu ------ 5% -------- high instagrammity
Very difficult to predict because I get the impression she doesn't work off-court as hard as she should. If she gives it her all then one day she can achieve a lot again, but the way she is now she's not even top 30 material. Pity, because she has a big game, and is charismatic. She'd be great for tennis.
RybaChina --------- 1% -------- low instagrammity
Huge game; if she had been properly coached from an early age - like the privileged kids were/are - she'd have been a Wunderkind by now, hyped just like Gauff, and would have broken through years earlier while a teen. What most tennis fans don't know is that she wasn't even close to being coached seriously: as a child, she basically played tennis just once or twice a week in a large group for an hour, which is certainly NOT how you become a slam champion. Yet, despite this, she did it. (She's like a mini-McEnroe almost, in that sense.) However, aside from starting late, her most real hindrance is that her confidence is not high, she has self-doubts and generally shows weakness on big points. If she ever repeats her slam success it'd be most likely again on grass, much smaller chances on HC, zero on clay, but I am very doubtful she will win another slam. Her finals score is pitiful, she fails to excel in key moments and she lacks championship mentality. She is just a slightly better version of a one-slam-wonder like Raducanu.
Sweetek ----------- 95% -------- low instagrammity
Just a question of when, not if.
Kenina --------- 5% ---------- instagrammity unknown, presumed medium
Quite talented, but her long injury break reveals great insecurity and self-doubts. Very difficult to say whether she can climb back up, she certainly has the skill-set. If she makes her way back to the top 50 by December then her odds go up to 30%. If she reaches that target in more than a year then it's 15%.
Stephens --------- 0% -------- very high instagrammity
Very good skills, but no. Very obviously one of those "it's just a job" pros who only do the minimum work required to stay competitive. She plays only for the money, she lacks the work ethic and high ambition to do it again. Besides, statistically-speaking 5 years is the limit for a WTA pro to win a second slam, and that 5-year limit expires at this year's USO. So definitely not.
Serena -------- 0% ---------- instagrammity irrelevant
She is surrounded by yes-men, just like Djokovic, and just like him exists within her own Fantasy World Bubble, but unlike him she is no longer a slam contender nor even properly active as a player. Hobby pro, basically, hoping to sneak in one more slam before retirement - which is so phenomenally optimistic. But then again, who knows: USO organizers might fix the draw to make it easier for her, as usual she will get no time violation warnings for serving after 40 seconds, and will not get DQed even if she punches an umpire in the face. The entire western Establishment and media are pulling for her, just so she can overtake Court, so who knows, with that kind of HELP she may even reach R4...?
Muguruza --------- 3% ------------ high instagrammity
Very arrogant, and convinced she knows it all, which I am certain is a great disadvantage and annoys the hell out of her coaches. I believe that Martinez is basically wasting her time trying to coach this uncoachable diva to more slam glory. Martinez is basically there just to bring her towels and pick up the balls, at least that's my impression. Garbina appears to be obstinate and not very hard-working. Her confidence took a nosedive since winning her slams, and especially after losing the AO final. Age is catching up slowly and before you know it she will be past her prime and no longer even potentially dangerous at the slams. Good thing she doesn't know this yet...
Krejcikova --------- 0% ---------------- instagrammity unknown, presumed low
She is the textbook fluke slam winner. As soon as she converted that MP vs Pavlyuchenkova I knew it was her 1st and last slam title. Got lucky at FO21 when it was a total free-for-all. Any of those 4 SFists could have won it. Well, it had to be somebody, and she got it. Kudos for that achievement, for vulturing it properly, but no way in hell she wins more. In doubles however she can win tons more.
Kvitova -------- 5% -------------- low instagrammity
Kvitova never kvits, and for that I admire her, but realistically she needs a very good draw and all the other stars to align just right. Age is against her.
Azarenka ------- 3% ----------- low instagrammity
A big fighter, very professional, but she's way past her prime. Age is Against her.
Ostapinko -------- 3% --------- instagrammity unknown, presumed high
A mindless ball-basher who hits EVERY ball as hard as she can, just like her loony eccentric compatriot Gulbis. But unlike him, she won a slam. She won one because Halep was in one of her mental-midgety slam finals/semis, many of such matches that she'd botched. Ostapinko should buy Halep a limo or a flat every time for her birthday, for the next 25 years... No, I don't believe Ostapinko is a serious contender, because she overrates herself, because she plays D-U-M-B and because slams aren't won by bashing every ball as if it's the last. Also, her 5-year period is up: statistically, if you don't win a 2nd slam within the next 5 years, you never do. Thank God for that...
Kerber ---------- 5% ----------- low instagrammity
I hope she doesn't. But with her fighting spirit, you never can be quite sure...
Halep --------- 10% ----------- very low instagrammity
A consummate pro, Halep is doing EVERYTHING to win a 3rd slam, she even hired Muratoglu which means she is desperate and willing to try even Bosnian Pyramids next if Muratoglu fails. Unfortunately, Simona piles up so much needless pressure on herself that she's even had panic attacks on the court. Hence I can't imagine her mental state should she ever serve again for a set or a match in a slam final. She'll probably fall apart. 3rd slam is not impossible but somehow I doubt it... She's her own worst enemy, just too fanatically ambitious, unable to relax and enjoy her matches more.
Osaka ----------- 50% ----------- very high instagrammity
Predicting the career trajectory of this over-sensitive diva is practically impossible. She might retire next week, or she might win 10 more slams. Anyone's guess. She has the kind of game that can crush everybody into smithereens, but because she acts like a whiny kid, she is tough to figure out. She seems to become more immature with age, which is very unusual. (Then again, Djokovic...)
Conclusions:
There won't be many repeat winners, at least not from this bunch above. So we can expect even more chaos with a bunch new Instagram stars being created after the next new dozen or so slam winners. I expect that from the next 15 slams probably 10 will be newbies.
According to me, there are as many as 50-70 potential new slam winners on the WTA. The top 100 is brimming with capable women desperate to snatch a slam - and because SO MANY now believe it's possible, they will make it possible. Unlike the ATP - where none of the slam-less wonders believe in themselves (except Sinner and Alcatraz) - the WTA has a very healthy competitive atmosphere within which almost anyone can beat anyone hence anyone can take the glory titles...
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