Whistling past the graveyard

T

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
Anyone who watched Djokovic obliterate Rublev and still thinks he is on his last legs, to use an American expression, is 'whistling past the graveyard' which means putting on an optimistic read in dire circumstances.

I am a physician and have watched Djokovic for years. His game has deteriorated in only one area that I can see which I will mention at the end. His game has changed in that his serve is better, and he probably shortens points more which is just wise.

He will be the favorite for all slams (except RG 2023) for the next three years. Not saying he will win all of them, but he will be a factor in all of them. It is why the whole 22>21 is sort of laughable to Djokovic fans because we believe he will win several more slams.

The one area that he is vulnerable is when he has a hard five-set match before a finals as has happened a couple of times in recent years especially in USO 2021.

He will be slightly more likely to be injured due to age. Motivation, if there was ever any doubt, will be high for the rest of his career due to 2022 issues.
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
He will be the favorite for all slams (except RG 2023) for the next three years. .
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Hitman said:
I have said it before and I will say it again, Djokovic will be competing as a legitimate contender for big titles for at least five more seasons after this one.
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3 years, 5 years, why not make it 7?

why not 15?

the guy is human man.. my god.. the young guns will put a hurting on him soon. You can’t expect him to be sliding and running like John Wick at 39 years old. The young guns are too explosive and powerful.

Why does it always have to turn into “Djokovic will win everything for ever and ever and ever” when he plays well… it’s just cringeworthy.

He is the favorite for the current tournament and the next AO and Wimbledon. He is the best player NOW at this present moment but things change very quickly in sport. Beyond that is a sea of uncertainty…
 
In the advanced NextGen we trust. Djokovic with his non-deteriorated game has had to get himself out of jail regularly in Slams in the past several years. He was able to capitalize on the mental weakness of his opponents really well. Let's see how long he can keep doing that.
 
Kralingen said:
3 years, 5 years, why not make it 7?

why not 15?

the guy is human man.. my god.. the young guns will put a hurting on him soon. You can’t expect him to be sliding and running like John Wick at 39 years old. The young guns are too explosive and powerful.

Why does it always have to turn into “Djokovic will win everything for ever and ever and ever” when he plays well… it’s just cringeworthy.

He is the favorite for the current tournament and the next AO and Wimbledon. He is the best player NOW at this present moment but things change very quickly in sport. Beyond that is a sea of uncertainty…
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Cringeworthy? OK. Sure the young guns will get better, but Djokovic will also learn how to attack them better. They are also more likely to get injured with the way that they play, plus get distracted by fame and wealth which I think sidelines a lot of players.

The best predictor of the future is what has happened in the recent past. At this age, body deterioration is slow if one takes care of oneself especially to the degree that Djokovic has. Maybe it will be 5 or 7 years. I think after a few years he will have captured the slam race, raised his weeks at No. 1, and taken at least one more YE No. 1. At that point, his motivation will probably decrease. The Big 3 have driven each other to greater heights, but at some point, when several slams ahead, he will retire.
 
Kralingen said:
3 years, 5 years, why not make it 7?

why not 15?

the guy is human man.. my god.. the young guns will put a hurting on him soon. You can’t expect him to be sliding and running like John Wick at 39 years old. The young guns are too explosive and powerful.

Why does it always have to turn into “Djokovic will win everything for ever and ever and ever” when he plays well… it’s just cringeworthy.

He is the favorite for the current tournament and the next AO and Wimbledon. He is the best player NOW at this present moment but things change very quickly in sport. Beyond that is a sea of uncertainty…
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Extremely cringeworthy lol its why I started calling him Imhotep :p they truly believe he is immortal and can never be stopped. Ultronians are so thirsty for humble pie it’s unreal.
 
Hitman said:
I have said it before and I will say it again, Djokovic will be competing as a legitimate contender for big titles for at least five more seasons after this one.
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5 is high, 3 or 4 seems more legit. But nothing would surprise me with him and this current tour tbh
 
MichaelNadal said:
Extremely cringeworthy lol its why I started calling him Imhotep :p they truly believe he is immortal and can never be stopped. Ultronians are so thirsty for humble pie it’s unreal.
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Nope. Just a physician making objective observations about what his body is capable of. His career is 3/4s or more over, but he is capable of playing as well as he ever could on all surfaces. Maybe he has an injury that speeds up his decline or maybe he loses motivation at some point, or one of the Young Guns is really destined to be an ATG and displaces him. But I think all of those are unlikely in the next 3 years.
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Nope. Just a physician making objective observations about what his body is capable of. His career is 3/4s or more over, but he is capable of playing as well as he ever could on all surfaces. Maybe he has an injury that speeds up his decline or maybe he loses motivation at some point, or one of the Young Guns is really destined to be an ATG and displaces him. But I think all of those are unlikely in the next 3 years.
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AS a physician, why do you think Djo is only at 21 now?
there are 4 slams for the taking every year and he's been around as this supreme specimen!!

ok, just a small q.... what happened at the recent olympics where he did not bag even a bronze?

only after a detailed examination can any physician predict the condition of any individual.... and no one can give guarantees for physical prowess of that individual. any number of variables can and will come into play.
it's really laughable to make such claims]
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Anyone who watched Djokovic obliterate Rublev and still thinks he is on his last legs, to use an American expression, is 'whistling past the graveyard' which means putting on an optimistic read in dire circumstances.

I am a physician and have watched Djokovic for years. His game has deteriorated in only one area that I can see which I will mention at the end. His game has changed in that his serve is better, and he probably shortens points more which is just wise.

He will be the favorite for all slams (except RG 2023) for the next three years. Not saying he will win all of them, but he will be a factor in all of them. It is why the whole 22>21 is sort of laughable to Djokovic fans because we believe he will win several more slams.

The one area that he is vulnerable is when he has a hard five-set match before a finals as has happened a couple of times in recent years especially in USO 2021.

He will be slightly more likely to be injured due to age. Motivation, if there was ever any doubt, will be high for the rest of his career due to 2022 issues.
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His shot tolerance, firepower, stamina, movement etc all have declined from his prime years but unfortunately there's no one around to expose that on grass & most HCs.
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Nope. Just a physician making objective observations about what his body is capable of. His career is 3/4s or more over, but he is capable of playing as well as he ever could on all surfaces. Maybe he has an injury that speeds up his decline or maybe he loses motivation at some point, or one of the Young Guns is really destined to be an ATG and displaces him. But I think all of those are unlikely in the next 3 years.
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A physician, but youre not Djokovic's physician.

You cant tell everything by looking at someone .
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Anyone who watched Djokovic obliterate Rublev and still thinks he is on his last legs, to use an American expression, is 'whistling past the graveyard' which means putting on an optimistic read in dire circumstances.

I am a physician and have watched Djokovic for years. His game has deteriorated in only one area that I can see which I will mention at the end. His game has changed in that his serve is better, and he probably shortens points more which is just wise.

He will be the favorite for all slams (except RG 2023) for the next three years. Not saying he will win all of them, but he will be a factor in all of them. It is why the whole 22>21 is sort of laughable to Djokovic fans because we believe he will win several more slams.

The one area that he is vulnerable is when he has a hard five-set match before a finals as has happened a couple of times in recent years especially in USO 2021.

He will be slightly more likely to be injured due to age. Motivation, if there was ever any doubt, will be high for the rest of his career due to 2022 issues.
Click to expand...

I think your last point should give more cause for concern than you seem to credit. In particular, his form is as good as it is right now in large part because of him being fairly fresh after not playing all that much this year. If he plays a fuller schedule, it will be tough for him to keep playing well all the time. This isn't to say that he won't, as @Hitman suggests, contend for majors, but that he won't play at as high a level all the time.

Hitman - my view is that it's unwise to predict five years out at any age, because a lot can change in five years. A lot can even change in one year - who thought Alcaraz would be number 1 now this time last year? But I agree that Djokovic probably will compete well for the next two to three years. Not saying more is impossible, but I think it's too early to tell. During Indian Wells 2018 - when Federer was about a year older than Djokovic is now - I thought Federer would still be contending for majors when he was 40. It turned out that he stopped contending 18 months to two years before that (depending on whether you consider his performance at AO 2020 as seriously contending or not).
 
I wish I had the confidence of some of my fellow Djokovic fans. I think he's more or less a guaranteed top contender for another couple of years, but five? I'm not saying it's impossible but that just doesn't seem to be based on any solid reasoning or evidence whatsoever to me.

There have been many top athletes (even in team sports where coaches can specifically strategise to hide certain individual weaknesses, let alone a one on one sport as physically demanding as tennis where there's no place to hide and every little chink is liable to being ruthlessly exposed by the opposition) especially with the age shift in recent times who have been able to maintain a very high standard of play even into their mid-thirties and have been praised for taking care of their bodies immaculately, only for their performance to fall off a cliff in a very short period of time thereafter.

It's impossible to know how Novak's game will look or what the quality of the field will be in 5 years' time as of today. It's extremely difficult to make accurate and well informed predictions about an athlete's longevity beyond the short to medium term, especially in a sport where the margins are so fine as they are in tennis. As other posters have mentioned even with the widely lamented lack of quality present at the top level in today's game, Djokovic has still had to pull multiple slams out of the fire in recent times. In certain pretty feasible alternative timelines we could be looking at Novak trailing the slam record by a significantly larger margin than he actually is. There's no solid reason to believe that he can continue to edge out these youngsters who are improving all the time (even if his game only continues to drop off at a very slow rate) beyond the medium term.
 
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Texas Tennis Fan said:
Cringeworthy? OK. Sure the young guns will get better, but Djokovic will also learn how to attack them better. They are also more likely to get injured with the way that they play, plus get distracted by fame and wealth which I think sidelines a lot of players.

The best predictor of the future is what has happened in the recent past. At this age, body deterioration is slow if one takes care of oneself especially to the degree that Djokovic has. Maybe it will be 5 or 7 years. I think after a few years he will have captured the slam race, raised his weeks at No. 1, and taken at least one more YE No. 1. At that point, his motivation will probably decrease. The Big 3 have driven each other to greater heights, but at some point, when several slams ahead, he will retire.
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He just lost to a 19 year old rune and lost against alcaraz earlier in the season, these guys are only gonna get better and i dont think djokovic is gonna be able to handle them when he is already losing to them from time to time, i give him a couple of years at most of being a top gun, but everything can change very quickly, a little injury, a loss of motivation... so if anything, he could be gone sooner than later
 
Kralingen said:
3 years, 5 years, why not make it 7?

why not 15?

the guy is human man.. my god.. the young guns will put a hurting on him soon. You can’t expect him to be sliding and running like John Wick at 39 years old. The young guns are too explosive and powerful.

Why does it always have to turn into “Djokovic will win everything for ever and ever and ever” when he plays well… it’s just cringeworthy.

He is the favorite for the current tournament and the next AO and Wimbledon. He is the best player NOW at this present moment but things change very quickly in sport. Beyond that is a sea of uncertainty…
Click to expand...

I hear you have a thing about wagering.

Let me know the last tournament that Djokovic entered without being a favourite?
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Cringeworthy? OK. Sure the young guns will get better, but Djokovic will also learn how to attack them better. They are also more likely to get injured with the way that they play, plus get distracted by fame and wealth which I think sidelines a lot of players.

The best predictor of the future is what has happened in the recent past. At this age, body deterioration is slow if one takes care of oneself especially to the degree that Djokovic has. Maybe it will be 5 or 7 years. I think after a few years he will have captured the slam race, raised his weeks at No. 1, and taken at least one more YE No. 1. At that point, his motivation will probably decrease. The Big 3 have driven each other to greater heights, but at some point, when several slams ahead, he will retire.
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It is cringeworthy to say that you can predict 3-5 years in advance. Yes I’m saying that. Especially in a sport where the margins are as fine as they are in tennis, and where we’re talking about a 35 year old with 19/20 year old challengers. Even the smallest 5% decline or improvement could mean Sinner and Tsitsipas win from 2-0 up the next time they play. It’s not like Djoker is demolishing the field in Slams, he’s gone down 2-0 3 times in his last Slam wins. Plus, he’s already vulnerable to long matches as shown in USO 21 where he wasn’t able to bring a high level final performance after the grueling SF with Zverev.

An example - 3 years ago in 2019 almost this exact day, a certain Roger Federer (who had MP in the Wimbledon final) smacked Djokovic at the WTF to cap a great season and deny Nole YE #1. Did anyone know he would have the knee injury and have to retire by now?

Could you have predicted that Djokovic would miss 4 Slams due to COVID in 2019? You’d think I was totally insane and making it up, but it happened.

did anyone even know who Carlos Alcaraz or Holger Rune was in 2019, let alone predict that they’d be Masters and Slam winners? Did we know what would happen with Shapo and Zverev’s development, or that Thiem would basically suck for the past 2 years due to his wrist?

the point is that long term predictions on such a scale are nearly impossible. There are so many variables, many of which ones that you cannot even conceptualize now.
 
The only things that slow down or stop the top players are age, injury or motivation or a combination of all 3. Age and injury finally caught up with Federer and the same is beginning to happen to Nadal. Injury has already more or less finished the careers of guys like De Potro, Murray, Nishikori, Raonic who are still officially active.

Djokovic is the glaring exception. Yes, he is getting older but he remains in almost perfect physical condition, almost completely injury free and that enables him to carry on playing at a high level and continue to compete for the big stuff for some time to come. Alone of all the players, he won the genetic lottery!
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Anyone who watched Djokovic obliterate Rublev and still thinks he is on his last legs, to use an American expression, is 'whistling past the graveyard' which means putting on an optimistic read in dire circumstances.

I am a physician and have watched Djokovic for years. His game has deteriorated in only one area that I can see which I will mention at the end. His game has changed in that his serve is better, and he probably shortens points more which is just wise.

He will be the favorite for all slams (except RG 2023) for the next three years. Not saying he will win all of them, but he will be a factor in all of them. It is why the whole 22>21 is sort of laughable to Djokovic fans because we believe he will win several more slams.

The one area that he is vulnerable is when he has a hard five-set match before a finals as has happened a couple of times in recent years especially in USO 2021.

He will be slightly more likely to be injured due to age. Motivation, if there was ever any doubt, will be high for the rest of his career due to 2022 issues.
Click to expand...
is this like similar to the movie "i spit on your grave" ??
 
mahatma said:
I hear you have a thing about wagering.

Let me know the last tournament that Djokovic entered without being a favourite?
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RG 2021.

Of course if being favorite was all that mattered to win, Djoko would have won Paris, RG, Madrid, Monte Carlo, Belgrade, Dubai, YEC 21, USO 21, Olympics 21 titles as well.. doesn’t always work that way.
 
Dennis Peterson said:
5 Stages of Grief for you and some people, the last stage is acceptance and you too will be forced to have it.

You will eventually bow down and accept that Djokovic is much superior to Federer/Nadal physically, he is the next step in evolution, baring any serious injury he is capable of reaching a grand slam final even at 40 years of age, it might happen.
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I like Novak man. This isn’t coming from a place of personal hatred. I bet on him heavily for AO 23.

But.

5 years is a VERY VERY VERY long time.
 
Kralingen said:
RG 2021.

Of course if being favorite was all that mattered to win, Djoko would have won Paris, RG, Madrid, Monte Carlo, Belgrade, Dubai, YEC 21, USO 21, Olympics 21 titles as well.. doesn’t always work that way.
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Ya exactly 1.5 years back ! Him winning or not doesn’t matter. He is the fav in every tournament that he enters except for RG. So the statement isn’t wrong by Novak fans.
 
Kralingen said:
I like Novak man. This isn’t coming from a place of personal hatred. I bet on him heavily for AO 23.

But.

5 years is a VERY VERY VERY long time.
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Yeah I really don't get the 5 years thing. That's an unbelievable lengthy time frame within the context of a top athlete's career, particularly one that's already 35.
 
mahatma said:
Ya exactly 1.5 years back ! Him winning or not doesn’t matter. He is the fav in every tournament that he enters except for RG. So the statement isn’t wrong by Novak fans.
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It is when they stretch it 3-5 years though.

Disease of more. Greed is one of the deadly sins. A great man once said that there is no best ever, just the best in the world right now. And you fight like hell to maintain it. Novak is a sterling professional and I’m sure he will still be a great player if he remains healthy. I’d even accept the statement that he could still peak for a Slam (particularly Wimbledon) and win one out of the blue. But to expect him to challenge for everything and to be favorite for EVERYTHING in 3 years is just asinine.

Father Time is undefeated.
Dennis Peterson said:
It is a long time but as per the trends he will last 4 or 5 years because Roger himself would have lasted till 40 without a serious injury.
I've always felt that at a similar age, Novak has been fitter than Roger who has been fitter than Nadal, so 40 is not weird at all.

Even on a conservative note he has 3-4ish years ahead, it is not like his reflexes will suddenly wane next year. Takes time.
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Mivic said:
Yeah I really don't get the 5 years thing. That's an unbelievable lengthy time frame within the context of a top athlete's career, particularly one that's already 35.
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Tbh it would be one thing if his only competition was Med Tsitsipas Rublev and Zverev. He might actually still be able to beat those guys in 4-5 years. But FAA, Sinner, Rune, and Alcaraz have beaten him 3 out of their last 4 matches against him. Musetti and Sinner were up 2-0 in sets.

So again, it’s not like we’re waiting for those 2000s kids to beat him. They already have. They’ll only improve and he’ll only decline. I have too much respect for their games to say 39 yr old Djo will still be dominating a 24 year old Alcaraz or a 25 year old FAA.
 
Kralingen said:
3 years, 5 years, why not make it 7?

why not 15?

the guy is human man.. my god.. the young guns will put a hurting on him soon. You can’t expect him to be sliding and running like John Wick at 39 years old. The young guns are too explosive and powerful.

Why does it always have to turn into “Djokovic will win everything for ever and ever and ever” when he plays well… it’s just cringeworthy.

He is the favorite for the current tournament and the next AO and Wimbledon. He is the best player NOW at this present moment but things change very quickly in sport. Beyond that is a sea of uncertainty…
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You've been saying this since Khachanov beat him in Paris 2018. We're 4 years past that point and he's still the favorite pretty much everywhere. Federer was 38 when he was holding 2 MP's at the Wimbledon 2019 final. Djokovic's physical state exceeds that of Roger's, so there's no reason why he won't still be a factor for the next 2-3 years minimum.

And don't bring up the "young guys". I remember when Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Zverev, Berr, Rublev, etc were all exciting young guns who are gonna do big things from 2017-. In those 5+ years of "young superstars", they have 1 slam combined between the entire lot of them.

He's not going anywhere. He's not scared of Alcaraz, he'll relish the challenge of an actual competent young player, not shy away and get slapped. He was atrocious vs. Rune and was points away from winning. He's fine.
 
Kralingen said:
3 years, 5 years, why not make it 7?

why not 15?

the guy is human man.. my god.. the young guns will put a hurting on him soon. You can’t expect him to be sliding and running like John Wick at 39 years old. The young guns are too explosive and powerful.

Why does it always have to turn into “Djokovic will win everything for ever and ever and ever” when he plays well… it’s just cringeworthy.

He is the favorite for the current tournament and the next AO and Wimbledon. He is the best player NOW at this present moment but things change very quickly in sport. Beyond that is a sea of uncertainty…
Click to expand...
He who bet a 36 year old Nadal would win a Calendar Slam has spoken. :D
 
TheAssassin said:
He who bet a 36 year old Nadal would win a Calendar Slam has spoken. :D
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Well he did win 2.

And if that’s ridiculous, then how about betting a 38 year old will be doing a calendar Slam? That exact prediction is the one the people in this thread seem to be making.
 
Dennis Peterson said:
35 today is like 30 of Agassi's time. It is not that old for exceptional athletes.

Andre, Nole and Roger are similar players in terms of longevity. So if Andre was in slam final at 35 then Nole being in one at 39-40 is not something weird, @Hitman is not wrong in his estimate.
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It's possible but even against the weaker top players of today he's won multiple slams by extremely fine margins in recent times. The consensus seems to be that the newer crop of youngsters have the ability to surpass the guys that Djokovic has been battling for slam victories over the past several years in terms of level and quality, so if Djokovic drops off even by a very small amount each year for the next 3 or 4 seasons and the youngsters reach their potential there's no telling whether Novak can hold them off beyond the medium term, especially if he takes the slam record (which seems fairly likely) and his motivation begins to wane. Even if Djokovic's top level continues to exceed that of the youngsters it's going to become more difficult for him to take on fresher and more explosive guys back to back in the best of 5 format over the course of a slam going forward. We've already seen him struggle to maintain his level in successive physical matches (even sets) in the best of 3 format at times and you'd have to think it's only a matter of time before we start seeing the same thing occur in slams with the depth at the top of the game potentially improving as well, even with the extra day's rest in play.
 
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Dennis Peterson said:
35 today is like 30 of Agassi's time. It is not that old for exceptional athletes.

Andre, Nole and Roger are similar players in terms of longevity. So if Andre was in slam final at 35 then Nole being in one at 39-40 is not something weird, @Hitman is not wrong in his estimate.
Click to expand...

You'll see barring injury, Novak will be right up there competing.

Keep in mind, I am not saying he is going to be racking up slam after slam. Those days are gone now, but he will pick up a slam here and there and most importantly, he will be in the mix in the business end more often than not. That is what I mean.
 
Hitman said:
You'll see barring injury, Novak will be right up there competing.

Keep in mind, I am not saying he is going to be racking up slam after slam. Those days are gone now, but he will pick up a slam here and there and most importantly, he will be in the mix in the business end more often than not. That is what I mean.
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Do you see him winning one at or close to 40 years of age?
 
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