Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by jokinla, Aug 15, 2012.
With Nads out of the Open, who gets his spot in the semis, Delpo, Haas, Ferrer, Tsonga???
I doubt Haas will make it to the semifinals.
Delpo is my bet.
I also believe that Del Potro is almost a lock for it.
I think Ferrer. He is a bad match-up for DelPo and if he faces one of the other three his chances are probably even worse.
Tsonga, unless he has to play one of the top three before the semis.
Assuming Ferrer gets the 4 seed, Tipsy, Berdy, Tsonga and Delpo are all praying to every god known to man that they draw his quarter.
Ferrer IS the 4th seed. It's locked already. Besides, he has 700 points more than Tsonga right now. Who else would get the 4th seed? And how would they justify that? At least Ferrer has made the semis there before. Tsonga hasn't.
Del Potro could dismantle Djokovic, Murray or Federer. It's really only Tipseravic, Tsonga and Berdych who are going to be worrying.
Am I missing something?
Surely Ferrer, being #5, will without a doubt get #4 seed? What am I missing?
Or does Tsonga stand a chance to bag a load of points and get above in the rankings before the seedings happen?
The op isn't talking about seeding. He's saying that, assuming the top 3 make semis, who will make the last spot?
I would like to see Del Potro or Tsonga.
It all depends on the draw, with the person drawing Ferrer in the quarters most likely to make it through
Delpo v Fed 2-13
Delpo v Muzza 1-5
Delpo v Djoker 2-4
Vamos Pics, you earned it.
depends on the draw. Ferrer is 4th seed (I'm assuming he still will be) so it's a question on whether other hopefuls (tsonga, Delpo, Berdych ) land in his quarter or Fed, Djoko, Murray's. Not that one of those 3 can't be upset, but the 5-8 seeds will be all hoping to be in Ferrer's quarter.
Being that Del Potro is currently ranked 9th, he should get the 8th seed. That would mean he'll either meet Federer or Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Federer has a 13-2 career matchup against him, and Djokovic is 4-2. If he somehow met Murray before the semifinal (not sure how that would happen), Murray has a 5-1 career advantage. Del Potro certainly could upset one of those guys, but he wouldn't be favored.
Unless there is another top 10 player pulling out, Ferrer will get the 4th seed, followed by Tsonga at #5, Berdych #6, and Tipsarevic #7. As others stated, the fourth semifinalist will likely come from Ferrer's quarter. If Tsonga lands there, I like his chances. He usually plays well on hard courts (finalist in Australia, QF at US Open last year, 8 career titles on hard surfaces). Otherwise, Ferrer has a 5-2 head-to-head over Berdych and a 2-1 lead over Tipsarevic, and he'll probably come through there since he's been to the US Open semifinals before.
Bottom line, if form holds up, the 4 semifinalists would be Federer, Djokovic, Murray, and Tsonga. However, I have a feeling there will be a major upset this year given the long Olympic summer, and one of those guys won't make it. We'll see...
Federer has an 87% winning record against DelPotro, Murray 83% and Djokovic 67%.
Are you trying to put a new meaning to the word "dismantle"?
If Delpo is 8th seed he can be drawn to play any of the top 4 seeds in the QFs.
If we assume the top 3 seeds make the semis, logically the 4th semifinalist can ONLY come from Ferrer's quarter. Anything else is impossible. I'd still favour Ferrer himself to prevail here. Ferrer totally destroyed DelPo at Wimbledon. But who is to say all of the top 3 seeds make it that far? It's sports, anything is possible. No matter how unlikely it may seem on paper.
I didn't believe you because I thought the #7 and #8 seeds were always placed randomly opposite of the #1 and #2 seeds. However, after looking it up, you are correct.
(Page 24, Procedure for Placing Seeds.)
I knew that the #3 and #4 seeds were randomly drawn and could be placed either in the top or bottom halves. However, I thought it continued in multiples of 2 from there... but this isn't the case. After the top 4 seeds are placed, the remaining seeds are drawn randomly to be placed in groups of 4 (5-8, 9-12, etc).
I'll still go with my original projection:
"...if form holds up, the 4 semifinalists would be Federer, Djokovic, Murray, and Tsonga. However, I have a feeling there will be a major upset this year given the long Olympic summer, and one of those guys won't make it. We'll see..."
However, I reserve the right to change this depending on how the draw turns out.
No worries mate - a lot of people think the same way as you did.
This is the way it should be done, instead of random draws for the seeds, they should be placed, because it doesn't seem right that the 1 seed could draw the 5 seed in the quarters and the 3 seed in the semis, and the 2 seed could draw the 8 seed in the quarters and the 4 seed in the semis, obviously giving the 2 seed an easier draw, BUT that's the way it's done.
Might be Isner.
Federer is seeded 1/2, Djokovic 1/2, Murray 3, Ferrer 4....though I rather hope it would Tsonga at 4th.
Ferrer not looking good after Wimbledon.
Are you sure about that last statement? Ferrer won the Bastad tournament in Sweden on clay one week after losing in 4 close sets to Murray in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. He's also got 5 titles so far this year, and a 53-10 record (which currently leads the tour in match wins, but is likely to be exceeded by Federer this week).
Ferrer did lose a tough match in the round of 16 at the Olympics to Nishikori, and he did lose his first hard court match of the summer today in Cincinnati to Wawrinka. However, he's generally a very tough competitor on hard courts and would deserve the #4 seed. Besides, he's got a nearly 600 point lead on Tsonga in the rankings, and there is no way Tsonga can overcome that before the US Open.
(All that said, I think Tsonga will make the US Open semifinals if he ends up in Ferrer's quarter.)
I'm more interested who of the top 2 is gonna draw Murray in the semis. Del Po is strong, but he can face any of top 3 in the QF (75% probability).
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