Who has the best post 30 career?

Best overall career results after turning 30

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GabeT

GabeT

Talk Tennis Guru
All the Big 3 have had incredible results after 30, at an age most prior ATGs would have been long retired. But how do they compare?

Looking at the results starting on the year after they turned 30 (2012 for Fed, 2017 for Nadal, 2018 for Novak) gives us the following results:

FedererNadalDjokovic
Slams played311816
Finals reached81010
Slams won488
Masters won1088
YE1023
Number of diff slams won234

Yes, they faced different competition. Yes, they are different ages so some had more slam opportunities after the cut off point. Yes, for at least two of them there is more to come.


What do you think? Who would you place on top on the after-30 results?
 
Novak on pure results. I feel like Rafa has struggled more off the court in his 30s, but he still comes very close in terms of achievement.

Fed is too behind on slams to even consider here imo
 
GabeT said:
All the Big 3 have had incredible results after 30, at an age most prior ATGs would have been long retired. But how do they compare?

Looking at the results starting on the year after they turned 30 (2012 for Fed, 2017 for Nadal, 2018 for Novak) gives us the following results:

FedererNadalDjokovic
Slams played311816
Finals reached81010
Slams won488
Masters won1088
YE1023
Number of diff slams won234

Yes, they faced different competition. Yes, they are different ages so some had more slam opportunities after the cut off point. Yes, for at least two of them there is more to come.


What do you think? Who would you place on top on the after-30 results?
Click to expand...
I think Nadal will finish as the best of the season for the third time, like Djokovic, being over 30 years old.
:D
 
GabeT said:
Ok, but I’m talking of results as of today
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Even, Djokovic obviously has more weeks as world number 1 than Nadal but the Spaniard has more titles than the Serbian.
They have both won over 250 matches since they turned 30 but, having won all 4 Majors at that age, I think the balance is still in the Serb's favour.
For now.
:)
 
DSH said:
Even, Djokovic obviously has more weeks as world number 1 than Nadal but the Spaniard has more titles than the Serbian.
They have both won over 250 matches since they turned 30 but, having won all 4 Majors at that age, I think the balance is still in the Serb's favour.
For now.
:)
Click to expand...
Nadal has more titles? Looking just at masters and above I think they are the same but haven’t looked at the smaller tourneys
 
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GabeT said:
Why? Do you mean in one specific tournament or across the board?
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I mean in general, taking into account the tournaments he was better at and the tournaments the other two were better at, I think Fed looks the best at Slam-level. Not sure on Masters because I haven’t looked into that too much.
 
Third Serve said:
I mean in general, taking into account the tournaments he was better at and the tournaments the other two were better at, I think Fed looks the best at Slam-level. Not sure on Masters because I haven’t looked into that too much.
Click to expand...
At the slam level I have to give points to Novak for being a true threat everywhere post 30. Don’t think that’s equally true for Federer (RG) or Nadal (WB)
 
GabeT said:
At the slam level I have to give points to Novak for being a true threat everywhere post 30. Don’t think that’s equally true for Federer (RG) or Nadal (WB)
Click to expand...
How can you say that when Nadal was very close to winning Wimbledon in 2018 and circumstances prevented him?
Also, that his level in 2019 there was superior to any performance of Federer at RG being over 30 years old.
:notworthy:
 
DSH said:
How can you say that when Nadal was very close to winning Wimbledon in 2018 and circumstances prevented him?
Also, that his level in 2019 there was superior to any performance of Federer at RG being over 30 years old.
:notworthy:
Click to expand...
I’m not saying nadal isn’t good. But it‘s his weak spot. Just like RG is Fed’s. Novak won all the slams after 30
 
Agassi whose degenerative condition actually made him basically immobile and severely declined.

Oh also Agassi bc he was faced with actual ATG competition from the younger generations... rather than mental headcases and also-ran mediocre players who granted him paper titles.
 
GabeT said:
At the slam level I have to give points to Novak for being a true threat everywhere post 30. Don’t think that’s equally true for Federer (RG) or Nadal (WB)
Click to expand...
sure but I think Fed was generally better than Djokovic at Wimbledon and the US Open. AO is actually somewhat debatable, even, although Djokovic’s 2019 win is a level beyond what Fed did. so I think Fed actually has the advantage at 2-3 Slams (let’s go with 2).

RG, of course, he lags significantly far behind unless you wanna cheat a little and include 2011
 
Djokovic. Apart from being younger and already having the slight edge in the achievements listed in the OP, Djokovic in his 30s has been the favorite for god knows how many Slams because he was ahead of the field. It's not quite the same story with Rafa.
 
Why include Federer for strictly the results comparison? As if it's not clear that his results are not on the same level. :cautious: If we compare the level of play after turning 30, that's a different matter.
 
The Fedfather said:
Why include Federer for strictly the results comparison? As if it's not clear that his results are not on the same level. :cautious: If we compare the level of play after turning 30, that's a different matter.
Click to expand...
I knew some people would want to look at aspects beyond purely the results obtained
 
The Fedfather said:
Well, as it is, you're basically asking "What's better: 4 or 8 Slams?". Is this supposed to lead to an interesting discussion?
Click to expand...
I had to set some parameters. In my experience posters will mostly ignore them and then debate what they want. But even if you looked beyond slam wins how would Fed be ahead of Novak?
 
Kralingen said:
Oh also Agassi bc he was faced with actual ATG competition from the younger generations...
Click to expand...
Yeah, and Federer did not. :-D He consistently played two of the greatest players ever in Djoker and Nadal in countless slams after turning 30. One was 6 years his junior, one was 5 years younger. Hilariously skewed and bogus statement.
 
So it's 14 years between multi-slam seasons for Nadal, right? Unless Djoker wins 2 slams in 2025, that may never be matched.

As for the thread topic, I guess Djoker currently wins by a slight margin, but it's still not enough.
 
GabeT said:
Really? Fed had first week losses at all the slams
Click to expand...
Didn't Djokovic have that too, apart from FO?

And my point was more about the deep runs. Novak often played at his C (if that) level and his opponents refused to take advantage. Federer's level didn't dip this much when he was making it to the last stages of tournaments.
 
The Fedfather said:
Didn't Djokovic have that too, apart from FO?

And my point was more about the deep runs. Novak often played at his C (if that) level and his opponents refused to take advantage. Federer's level didn't dip this much when he was making it to the last stages of tournaments.
Click to expand...

we’d have to define the comparable periods. After Novak “came back’ at W18 he played a total of 14 slams. Of those he lost Before SF only twice, both at the USO. Fed never had a period like that after 2011
 
Third Serve said:
On results it’s probably Novak.

Think Fed produced the highest level in general, though.
Click to expand...
That's ridiculous. Now you are looking like NADALALOT, but in Federer fan version, blindly seeing your idol as the best at everything. You see Federer as the best at peak level based on nothing.

Federer has less Slam finals, less Slam titles, worse results at his worst Slam, was less dominant in his Slam victories, and is the worst at the USO.

-Federer only won half the Slam titles Nadovic won in his 30s: 8 > 4. But yeah, Federer "had a higher peak level", right?

-Federer was far less impressive in his most dominant Slam win: Federer won WB 2017 without losing a set, but he was forcet to 2 tie-breaks against Berdych (in fact, Berdych was even serving for the first set before Roger broke him back). Nadal faced 0 tie-breaks at RG 2017 and thus produced a higher level than Federer at WB 2017 (I dunno how is this debatable, Nadal at his best at RG simply produces a higher level than Federer anywhere). Nadal also produced a higher level at RG 2020, after beating Novak Djokovic without even facing a tie-break and losing 0 titles. Djokovic also produced a higher level at the AO 2019, after beating a Nadal who had lost 0 sets before the final in straigth sets.

-Federer is the worst at his worst Slam: Roger only made 2 SFS at RG since turning 30, and won 0 sets in both SFs. Nadal made 2 SFs at WB after turning 30 and won 3 sets in both SFs. Djokovic made 3 SFs at RG since turning 30, and won 8 sets in those SFs.

-Federer is the worst at the USO aged 31+ (i. e.: post-30): Federer in his 30s only reached 1 USO final, and convincingly lost it. Nadal and Djokovic have both been more succesful and produced a higher level in his 30s at the USO than the Swiss (excluding the USO 2011, where Federer was 30 flat, rather than post-30).
 
Last edited:
Sport said:
That's ridiculous. Now you are looking like NADALALOT, but in Federer fan version, blindly seeing your idol as the best at everything. You see Federer as the best at peak level based on nothing.

Federer has less Slam finals, less Slam titles, worse results at his worst Slam, was less dominant in his Slam victories, and is the worst at the USO.

-Federer only won half the Slam titles Nadovic won in his 30s: 8 > 4. But yeah, Federer "had a higher peak level", right?

-Federer was far less impressive in his most dominant Slam win: Federer won WB 2017 without losing a set, but he was forcet to 2 tie-breaks against Berdych (in fact, Berdych was even serving for the first set before Roger broke him back). Nadal faced 0 tie-breaks at RG 2017 and thus produced a higher level than Federer at WB 2017 (I dunno how is this debatable, Nadal at his best at RG simply produces a higher level than Federer anywhere). Nadal also produced a higher level at RG 2020, after beating Novak Djokovic without even facing a tie-break and losing 0 titles. Djokovic also produced a higher level at the AO 2019, after beating a Nadal who had lost 0 sets before the final in straigth sets.

-Federer is the worst at his worst Slam: Roger only made 2 SFS at RG since turning 30, and won 0 sets in both SFs. Nadal made 2 SFs at WB after turning 30 and won 3 sets in both SFs. Djokovic made 3 SFs at RG since turning 30, and won 8 sets in those SFs.

-Federer is the worst at the USO aged 31+: Federer in his 30s only reached 1 USO final, and convincingly lost it. Nadal and Djokovic have both been more succesful and produced a higher level in his 30s at the USO than the Swiss (excluding the USO 2011, where Federer was 30 flat, rather than post-30).
Click to expand...
At the AO, Fed has at least good runs in 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2018 where he either won or played good but simply lost to strong competition. I would rate 2017 alone higher than Djokovic’s 2020 and 2021 runs as well as Nadal’s 2017 (obviously), 2019, and 2022 runs. The others are closer but I believe the sheer quantity of Fed’s good runs at the AO outweigh Nadal there and come to about equal with Novak. Novak’s advantage is in producing the highest quality win there, 2019.

At RG, Fed is obviously the worst of the three by a fair margin.

At Wimbledon, Fed’s runs in 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017 are better than anything Djokovic produced there except for 2018 (and that’s just for 2015; 2012, 2014, and 2017 Fed are better than 2018 Djokovic at Wimbledon, two clearly and the other slightly). You can just forget about Nadal here, as his one legitimately great run is worse than all of Fed’s noteworthy runs. We could also talk about Fed’s 2019 final run as a bonus.

At the US Open, I rate Fed’s SF effort in 2011 (I’m pretty sure the OP is including age 30 in this) is better than anything from Djokovic and Nadal, and he also has a nice 2015 run to go along with it. I suppose you can throw in 2012 but I personally wouldn’t. I would put him clearly ahead of Djokovic at the US Open 30+, but probably behind Nadal.

In summation, Fed’s AO 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2018 runs would basically be Slam-winning runs in this era. The same goes for his Wimbledon 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017 runs, as well as his US Open 2011 and 2015 runs. Swap him out with Djokovic or Nadal and I think we’d see many of these finals and semifinals turn to titles.
 
Nadal:
260-43, .858 overall
20-11, .645 vs top 5
45-25, .643 vs top 10
23-7, .767 in all finals matches

Djokovic
234-42,.848 overall
24-14, .632 vs top 5
51-21, .708 vs top 10
21-8, .724 in all finals matches

Federer
463-92, .834 overall
35-32, .522 vs top 5
85-52, .620 vs top 10
36-23, .610 in all finals matches

Djoker and Nadal are extremely close. Djoker has played a lot more top-tier opponents. But Nadal has 2 more titles overall. But it's a very close call. To be fair to Djoker, he accomplished about as much as Nadal did, despite being 11 months younger. So this is incredibly close. Djoker also peaked higher. I might end up changing my answer on this one. The tiebreaker is the fact that Nadal has 2 more titles overall. I'm taking Nadal by a whisker.

Federer doesn't have the numbers to hang here. But to be very fair, he's put up a very impressive fight as an old man against two younger warriors. No old player in history has had the competition that Federer has. Federer also outlasted his era by a massive margin. But....I cannot put Federer above the other two here. A couple holds of serve at 40-15 would have me change my mind. But unfortunately, those holds didn't happen.
 
GabeT said:
we’d have to define the comparable periods. After Novak “came back’ at W18 he played a total of 14 slams. Of those he lost Before SF only twice, both at the USO. Fed never had a period like that after 2011
Click to expand...
This RG although it was "the Final"?
 
The question is pretty clear. What results are you considering if you voted for Nadal? It can’t be slams or time at number 1.
 
Pheasant said:
Nadal:
260-43, .858 overall
20-11, .645 vs top 5
45-25, .643 vs top 10
23-7, .767 in all finals matches

Djokovic
234-42,.848 overall
24-14, .632 vs top 5
51-21, .708 vs top 10
21-8, .724 in all finals matches

Federer
463-92, .834 overall
35-32, .522 vs top 5
85-52, .620 vs top 10
36-23, .610 in all finals matches

Djoker and Nadal are extremely close. Djoker has played a lot more top-tier opponents. But Nadal has 2 more titles overall. But it's a very close call. To be fair to Djoker, he accomplished about as much as Nadal did, despite being 11 months younger. So this is incredibly close. Djoker also peaked higher. I might end up changing my answer on this one. The tiebreaker is the fact that Nadal has 2 more titles overall. I'm taking Nadal by a whisker.

Federer doesn't have the numbers to hang here. But to be very fair, he's put up a very impressive fight as an old man against two younger warriors. No old player in history has had the competition that Federer has. Federer also outlasted his era by a massive margin. But....I cannot put Federer above the other two here. A couple holds of serve at 40-15 would have me change my mind. But unfortunately, those holds didn't happen.
Click to expand...
GabeT said:
The question is pretty clear. What results are you considering if you voted for Nadal? It can’t be slams or time at number 1.
Click to expand...

See above.
 
GabeT said:
we’d have to define the comparable periods. After Novak “came back’ at W18 he played a total of 14 slams. Of those he lost Before SF only twice, both at the USO. Fed never had a period like that after 2011
Click to expand...
Federer didn't have strong years consecutively in his 30s because early on he got sidetracked by back injury in 2013. However, the periods when Roger played consistently well - 2012 + AO2013, 2014, 2015 + AO2016, 2017 his form in the deep runs at Slams was overall more than comparable to Djokovic's.

Even in his Slam winning runs, Novak's level post '18 regularly takes major dips in every other match for a set or more. Do you think Djokovic wouldn't pay dearly for that if he was up against his younger self, well-playing Stan or Murray, and not Berrettini, Medvedev, or Zverev? No guarantees but I'd say his streaky performances likely would be punished more often.
 
GabeT said:
At the slam level I have to give points to Novak for being a true threat everywhere post 30. Don’t think that’s equally true for Federer (RG) or Nadal (WB)
Click to expand...
Nadal has been as much of a threat at Wimb in his 30's as Djokovic at RG.
 
Kralingen said:
Agassi whose degenerative condition actually made him basically immobile and severely declined.

Oh also Agassi bc he was faced with actual ATG competition from the younger generations... rather than mental headcases and also-ran mediocre players who granted him paper titles.
Click to expand...
I know you're joking, but it's actually true. Don't think 2004 Agassi was worse on HC than 2021 Djokovic and 2005 USO Agassi was better than 2021 USO Djokovic.
 
Third Serve said:
At the AO, Fed has at least good runs in 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2018 where he either won or played good but simply lost to strong competition. I would rate 2017 alone higher than Djokovic’s 2020 and 2021 runs as well as Nadal’s 2017 (obviously), 2019, and 2022 runs. The others are closer but I believe the sheer quantity of Fed’s good runs at the AO outweigh Nadal there and come to about equal with Novak. Novak’s advantage is in producing the highest quality win there, 2019.

At RG, Fed is obviously the worst of the three by a fair margin.

At Wimbledon, Fed’s runs in 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017 are better than anything Djokovic produced there except for 2018 (and that’s just for 2015; 2012, 2014, and 2017 Fed are better than 2018 Djokovic at Wimbledon, two clearly and the other slightly). You can just forget about Nadal here, as his one legitimately great run is worse than all of Fed’s noteworthy runs. We could also talk about Fed’s 2019 final run as a bonus.

At the US Open, I rate Fed’s SF effort in 2011 (I’m pretty sure the OP is including age 30 in this) is better than anything from Djokovic and Nadal, and he also has a nice 2015 run to go along with it. I suppose you can throw in 2012 but I personally wouldn’t. I would put him clearly ahead of Djokovic at the US Open 30+, but probably behind Nadal.

In summation, Fed’s AO 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2018 runs would basically be Slam-winning runs in this era. The same goes for his Wimbledon 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017 runs, as well as his US Open 2011 and 2015 runs. Swap him out with Djokovic or Nadal and I think we’d see many of these finals and semifinals turn to titles.
Click to expand...
Ehh, I wouldn't put Fed below Nadal at age 30+ at the USO. Nadal was able to win 2 USO's with cakewalk draws, while 2011 and 2015 Fed were stopped by Peakovic.
 
Djokovic due to winning every slam in his 30's.

In terms of level though, it's much more complicated. Fed was stripped off 12 slams in his 30's because of strong competition.
 
mike danny said:
I know you're joking, but it's actually true. Don't think 2004 Agassi was worse on HC than 2021 Djokovic and 2005 USO Agassi was better than 2021 USO Djokovic.
Click to expand...
Why stop there? 2004 USO Agassi was better than 2019 USODal and 2004 AO Agassi would PISTOL whip 2022 AODal along with 2021 AOovic.

I could probably argue for '04 HCgassi better than '20 Djokodal and '20 HC Slam Thiem as well.

2005 is more difficult bc he was literally a dead man walking and maybe Djokodal could outlast him.
 
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