Who has the best shot to beat Djokovic at Roland Garros?

Best shot to beat Djokovic at Roland Garros if they play

  • Thiem

    Votes: 41 43.6%
  • Nadal

    Votes: 43 45.7%
  • Tsitsipas

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • Zverev

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Wawrinka (only reason I include him is since he is Djokovic's slam nemisis since 2014)

    Votes: 5 5.3%

  • Total voters
    94

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Thiem is dangerous. Consider this: Entering the match against Djoker, Thiem was getting 68 of his first serves in. In the match against Djoker, he got only 51.9% of his first serves in. Thiem is not going to beat many players with that kind of serving percentage. Also, Djoker was 3/3 in break point opportunities. Thiem was 3/10.

Hopefully, they play again. And hopefully, they both bring their “A” game. Djoker played better in the final. Thiem layed an egg with his terrible serving performance and his repeated drop shots.
 

Benjamin Rio

Professional
Nadal is still the favourite in my opinion.

Novak has won 1 good close match on clay against Thiem. Tsitsipas Taylors Fritz Chardy pretty weak to make him the clean favourite.
 
Thiem is dangerous. Consider this: Entering the match against Djoker, Thiem was getting 68 of his first serves in. In the match against Djoker, he got only 51.9% of his first serves in. Thiem is not going to beat many players with that kind of serving percentage. Also, Djoker was 3/3 in break point opportunities. Thiem was 3/10.

Hopefully, they play again. And hopefully, they both bring their “A” game. Djoker played better in the final. Thiem layed an egg with his terrible serving performance and his repeated drop shots.
Good point that Thiem made it very close against Djokovic despite not playing particularly well in that match, or even that event in general. However as you also pointed out Djokovic was not exactly stellar in the Thiem match, and will probably also be playing better next time he plays Thiem, even if hopefully Thiem will be.

All that said I voted for Thiem on this poll, as I see more people have than any other poll option, with Nadal close behind.
 
Fedr flying below all radars. Good.
I actually do think Federer is a top 5 contender for RG this year. I just do not think there is anyway he will be the one to take out Djokovic. The match up on a slower court at this point is not favorable for Federer, he has not even been able to win their Wimbledon/U.S Open/YEC/faster court meetings since 2014 now, so doing it at the Australian or French, just not going to happen at this phase of his career. I imagine for instance had they played in Madrid, it probably would have been a pretty easy 2 set win for Djokovic, despite that Federer should have beaten Thiem, and Djokovic barely beat a poor playing Thiem.

If he avoids Djokovic he is in with a chance. Even Nadal might be vurnerable to Federer on clay at this point.
 
D

Deleted member 763024

Guest
Anyone that thinks Nadal is going to flop at the French is fooling themselves.

He's figured out he doesn't need to win everything on clay now. His sights are set on the rest of the season past RG... he'll show up for sure in June.

Everyone forgets so quickly. Remember Theim won over Rafa in Rome last year... what happened at the French? Got creamed, that's what happened...
 
I'm warning you guys, Nadal is a much better BO5 player than BO3. People, as always, are writing him off too early. Novak is not a clear favorite yet. Whether he or Nadal (or Thiem) is the favorite is up for debate.
He sure was not good in the BO5 of the Australian Open final this year, nor most of his matches at the Australian Open, apart from the semi final match.
 
Anyone that thinks Nadal is going to flop at the French is fooling themselves.

He's figured out he doesn't need to win everything on clay now. His sights are set on the rest of the season past RG... he'll show up for sure in June.

Everyone forgets so quickly. Remember Theim won over Rafa in Rome last year... what happened at the French? Got creamed, that's what happened...
Yes but the poll is not speculating on a Thiem-Nadal match up which I agree probably favors Nadal even now, in a grand slam.

It is speculating on who is the biggest chance to take out Djokovic. Nadal has always found Djokovic a nightmare horrible match up even in his prime, he just usually won at RG anyway since he was such a beast there many years ago, and since Djokovic is a notorious RG choker too. By contrast Thiem is a difficult match up for Djokovic, and plays him surprisingly tough often, even excluding the crap Djokovic of some of 2017 and 2018. Considering how badly Nadal has declined, it is not surprising more people have thus far voted Thiem as the worst person for Djokovic to meet at RG this year, over Nadal. The Nadal-Thiem match up is an entirely different topic than comparatively their match ups against Djokovic.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
A peak/prime Wawrinka.
You must have missed Rafa's match last week against Stan. He won a total of three games and clearly looked fat and out of shape for a professional tennis player. It was egregious. I realize that Stanimal can indeed appear out of nowhere to terrorize the field, but Stan is clearly not fit enough to make a decent run at a BO5 format.
 
F

FRV

Guest
I have to go with Nadal. But don't sleep on Federer. Federer's main problem right now is probably just not enough practice on clay. I think if he'd played the clay season last year, and assuming it wouldn't have had a negative impact on his body, he would be a favorite (not the favorite) for the tournament this year. The overall level of the tour seems to have dropped with Nadal in a slump and Djokovic just now reemerging from his own slump.
 

Sudacafan

G.O.A.T.
I actually do think Federer is a top 5 contender for RG this year. I just do not think there is anyway he will be the one to take out Djokovic. The match up on a slower court at this point is not favorable for Federer, he has not even been able to win their Wimbledon/U.S Open/YEC/faster court meetings since 2014 now, so doing it at the Australian or French, just not going to happen at this phase of his career. I imagine for instance had they played in Madrid, it probably would have been a pretty easy 2 set win for Djokovic, despite that Federer should have beaten Thiem, and Djokovic barely beat a poor playing Thiem.

If he avoids Djokovic he is in with a chance. Even Nadal might be vurnerable to Federer on clay at this point.
I am just happy he’s flying under all radars.
 

papertank

Hall of Fame
Lol talk about a reactionary post. Djokovic has a total of two good wins now in the past few months. Let’s see if he can keep it up.
 

King No1e

Legend
So Djoker wins a clay master and now he's the favorite to win RG... just last week you had him as finished.

And people wonder why I'm not a big fan of Djoker fans.
Please. As if the TTW Fed fans don't blow every win and loss out of proportion either.
After AO: Federer is Finnish, should retire
After Miami: Fedr is a top contender for RG

TTWers accusing each other of being reactionary is like the current US administration accusing each other of being dishonest.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
So Djoker wins a clay master and now he's the favorite to win RG... just last week you had him as finished.

And people wonder why I'm not a big fan of Djoker fans.
Hmm, that's TTW in general you're referring to, not just Djokovic fans[who didn't even create this thread anyway].
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
I think this question is being asked prematurely. We need to see how Rome plays out first.
 
So Djoker wins a clay master and now he's the favorite to win RG... just last week you had him as finished.

And people wonder why I'm not a big fan of Djoker fans.
I am not a Djokovic fan. I am a much bigger Nadal fan than a Djokovic fan. However maybe I am being pesstimistic but I see little reason for enthusiasm about Nadal's RG chances now. He even lost to someone he destroyed on hard courts months ago in his last clay match. Djokovic has been inconsistent in Masters this year too but he has won his last 3 slams, each one easier than the one before, won his last clay tourney, won RG the last year he wasnt in a slump (his slump ended after RG 2018), totally owns Nadal overall since atleast mid 2014, and Nadal is playing awful ATM. Nadal is playing much worse than Australia where Djokovic destroyed him, and the last time Nadal was playing extremely well period on any surface was Wimbledon and yet lost to Djokovic even there. Even with that Nadal still has a good shot of course, I did include him in the poll after all, but yeah I think Djokovic is the logical favorite for RG ATM.
 
Right now, it’s Thiem. It could change.
I voted Thiem as well. As one earlier poster said his play in the Madrid semis was kind of poopy, and he still was close to winning and had many more break points than Djokovic. His play that overall tournament wasnt even any good, nearly losing in easy lopsided straight sets to an old Federer on clay the match before, yet he still played Djokovic that closely. So yeah considering the awful match up Djokovic has been for Nadal since 2011 as well, and how bad Nadal is ATM, Thiem is the biggest threat to Djokovic if he plays him at RG IMO.

I agree with the poll, Thiem 1st, Nadal a close 2nd, and everyone else probably has less chance to beat Djokovic in the 2nd week than Djokovic having an off day and losing 1st week to some hot player.
 

StANDAA

Legend
Right now, it’s Thiem. It could change.
I voted Thiem as well. As one earlier poster said his play in the Madrid semis was kind of poopy, and he still was close to winning and had many more break points than Djokovic. His play that overall tournament wasnt even any good, nearly losing in easy lopsided straight sets to an old Federer on clay the match before, yet he still played Djokovic that closely. So yeah considering the awful match up Djokovic has been for Nadal since 2011 as well, and how bad Nadal is ATM, Thiem is the biggest threat to Djokovic if he plays him at RG IMO.

I agree with the poll, Thiem 1st, Nadal a close 2nd, and everyone else probably has less chance to beat Djokovic in the 2nd week than Djokovic having an off day and losing 1st week to some hot player.
Jesus it’s not Thiem.

He couldn’t beat Djokovic at Masters, he definitely won’t beat him at a Grand Slam, where Djokovic does even better and Thiem worse.

Thiem beat Nadal two years in a row in a clay Masters and couldn’t get 5 games against him in a set at RG. With Djokovic, he couldn’t even beat him in the Masters.
 
Jesus it’s not Thiem.

He couldn’t beat Djokovic at Masters, he definitely won’t beat him at a Grand Slam, where Djokovic does even better and Thiem worse.

Thiem beat Nadal two years in a row in a clay Masters and couldn’t get 5 games against him in a set at RG. With Djokovic, he couldn’t even beat him in the Masters.
Djokovic does not do better at RG than clay Masters. He is a perennial choker at RG, hence only 1 RG title despite now 9 Masters titles, and holding every existing Masters numerous times.

The poll seems pretty clear everyone thinks it is either Thiem or Nadal, so I am guessing you think it is Nadal. Which is certainly reasonable but i already explained my reasoning for not picking Nadal, so it is Thiem by default I guess for me. As you can see by the votes nobody but Nadal or Thiem seems an even semi plausible option for nearly everyone.
 

StANDAA

Legend
Djokovic does not do better at RG than clay Masters. He is a perennial choker at RG, hence only 1 RG title despite now 9 Masters titles, and holding every existing Masters numerous times.
Maybe it has to do with Nadal being more unbeatable at RG than Masters throughout the years. That’s why he got my vote.
 
Maybe it has to do with Nadal being more unbeatable at RG than Masters throughout the years. That’s why he got my vote.
That is part of it for sure, but there is no way to say Djokovic did not fold under pressure quite a bit in RG 2014 and 2015. 2011 and 2013 less so, since he fell to a hot Federer and determined hot Nadal, but even those could be seen as not delivering or being clutch to the extent of some of his pre RG performances both times. 2009 was a bigtime bust at RG. 2010, 2012, 2017, he was kind of rubbish in general, so wont judge him on those.

I agree on your point on Nadal but even Nadal at RG will not survive if his form is super weak as 2015 RG showed. And right now his playing level almost looks closer to 2015-2016 than anything else.
 

Imperator

Professional
Jesus it’s not Thiem.

He couldn’t beat Djokovic at Masters, he definitely won’t beat him at a Grand Slam, where Djokovic does even better and Thiem worse.

Thiem beat Nadal two years in a row in a clay Masters and couldn’t get 5 games against him in a set at RG. With Djokovic, he couldn’t even beat him in the Masters.
Who said he will beat him ? The question is who has the best shot.
 

mightyrick

Legend
The best chance is going to be someone like Thiem or Zverev or Coric or Kyrgios or someone like that. Nadal's confidence is totally shot. And unfortunately for him, it takes weeks of matches for him to play himself back into form. Nadal is going to be lucky to get past the quarters. Nadal has zero chance this year.

Federer has taken out Djokovic on clay before, but Federer just doesn't have the movement he used to have. Djokovic will grind him into dust and force him to UE to death.
 

Zoid

Professional
kyrgios first round for djok would be a dream. Currently 36 in the rankings, hopefully tanks versus ruud
 
Nadal still. It would be dishonest to say it’s not the guy who is 106-2 in Bo5 on clay in his entire career. He will be a different animal at RG.
So you think is Nadal most likely to win RG right now, not Djokovic? Interesting, would have to disagree there. Nadal is struggling too much right now for me to think he is more likely to win this years RG than Djokovic, regardless his whole history (and remember he only won 2 of the last 4, and was never winning in 2016 even had he played so it is not like he is dominant there even in the last 4-5 years, like he was the decade before then even if we look at more extended history that isnt ancient collecting dust; had it not been for zoning playing out of his skin Staminal in 2015 final, Djokovic and Nadal would have split the last 4 evenly).
 
The best chance is going to be someone like Thiem or Zverev or Coric or Kyrgios or someone like that. Nadal's confidence is totally shot. And unfortunately for him, it takes weeks of matches for him to play himself back into form. Nadal is going to be lucky to get past the quarters. Nadal has zero chance this year.

Federer has taken out Djokovic on clay before, but Federer just doesn't have the movement he used to have. Djokovic will grind him into dust and force him to UE to death.
Yeah I give Federer a legit outside shot to win RG this year, just no chance to beat Djokovic if they meet which is why I excluded him from this poll, although I arguably give him a better shot to actually win RG than some I have in the poll (eg- Tsitsipas, maybe Zverev), just those guys have a better shot to win against Djokovic. If something happens to Djokovic, he is right within the top 3 or 4 contenders left IMO.

Laugh at me if you want but I also think if somehow Federer and Nadal meet at RG, Federer will win, since Nadal has been struggling horribly with Federer ever since losing that 2017 AO final; although I give Nadal more shot against the field than Federer. One can never underestimate the mental side of the game and in all these individual match ups.

I agree with who said if Nadal and Thiem play, Nadal wil probably win though. Thiem would probably rather play Djokovic than Nadal if he had to choose. Basically how the draw plays out will be crucial for all the guys.
 
I don't understand why Djokovic is seen as an untouchable god in Grand Slams nowadays.
Well winning the last 3 probably has something to do with it, along with 37 year old Federer, 32 year old Nadal but in basically a 42 year old body, and Thiem, Zverev, and those other mugs still being slamless.
 

StANDAA

Legend
So you think is Nadal most likely to win RG right now, not Djokovic? Interesting, would have to disagree there. Nadal is struggling too much right now for me to think he is more likely to win this years RG than Djokovic, regardless his whole history (and remember he only won 2 of the last 4, and was never winning in 2016 even had he played so it is not like he is dominant there even in the last 4-5 years, like he was the decade before then even if we look at more extended history that isnt ancient collecting dust; had it not been for zoning playing out of his skin Staminal in 2015 final, Djokovic and Nadal would have split the last 4 evenly).
No, I don’t think Nadal’s the favorite, I think it’s Djokovic. I just think Nadal has a bigger shot at defeating him. Nadal won only 2 of the last 4, you’re right (like that in itself isn’t a tremendous feat), but he won the last 2 after dropping only one set. And that wasn’t even to Thiem.

You cannot think the guy who won the last two RG editions after only dropping one set has a smaller chance to beat ANY player there than the guy who got straight-setted by him there in the last two years.
 
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