Who has the better chance of winning USO-RG double?

Who has a better chance of winning USO-RG double?

  • The Nadal

    Votes: 32 76.2%
  • Nole

    Votes: 10 23.8%

  • Total voters
    42

K-H

Hall of Fame
On paper:
Nadal has more combined slams of 16 to 4 at the 2 events.
Nadal has more individual RGs
Nadal has more individual USOs
Nadal has a winning H2H against nole at RG
Nadal has a winning H2H against nole at USO
Nadals favourite clay tournament is at RG whereas Noles probably had the least succes at RG compared to other clay events hes played
Nadal has won RG-USO combo 4 times in the same year
Nole has never won both events in the same year.
Nole has lost 5 finals at the open compared to only 1 for nadal
Nole has lost 3 RG finals compared to 0 for Nadal.

Its weird if you show all these stats to a player who doesn't know much about tennis, they'll think Nadal is the obvious answer lol.
But obviously its far more complicated and I think Nole can probably recover quicker between the 2 slams so it should be interesting
 

socallefty

New User
Nadal has a much better chance of winning the French Open based on his unbelievable track record of 12 titles and just two losses. He has also won 2 out of the last three US Opens where his chance of winning has to be considered this year only slightly less than a healthy Novak. The question is how healthy is Novak as a recent study in Germany published this week has shown that 78% of those who were positive for the vir#s in the study showed heart inflammation and structural damage - this included many who had minor symptoms and were never hospitalized. No one knows how good Novak is playing currently, how many symptoms he had and what the after-effects are to his lungs and heart. As a tennis fan, I hope he is 100% healthy and will play as well as he was at the start of the year. But, I have to cast my vote for Nadal in this poll.
 

weakera

Legend
Nadal has a much better chance of winning the French Open based on his unbelievable track record of 12 titles and just two losses. He has also won 2 out of the last three US Opens where his chance of winning has to be considered this year only slightly less than a healthy Novak. The question is how healthy is Novak as a recent study in Germany published this week has shown that 78% of those who were positive for the vir#s in the study showed heart inflammation and structural damage - this included many who had minor symptoms and were never hospitalized. No one knows how good Novak is playing currently, how many symptoms he had and what the after-effects are to his lungs and heart. As a tennis fan, I hope he is 100% healthy and will play as well as he was at the start of the year. But, I have to cast my vote for Nadal in this poll.
It's extremely unlikely that Novak will feel any ill effects from his bout of coronavirus. Possible, but a very small chance.
 

Atennisone

Hall of Fame
Nadal is an underdog
It would equal suprising if he wins UO, as it would be if Fritz won it
It would be equal surprising if he wins RG, as it would be if Carreño Busta won it
 
I'm not arguing this is actually the case, but the implied combined betting odds have them at similar odds. I think this is a very typical difficult probability question actually that can lead people to give the intuitively wrong answer.

With that said, I would be tempted to say Nadal too :-D

Odds have him at around 25 percent (and Novak between 20 and 25 percent) , which is quite high to have 21 slams in 2.5 months :eek:
 
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ADuck

Hall of Fame
I'm not arguing this is actually the case, but the implied combined betting odds have them at similar odds. I think this is a very typical difficult probability question actually that can lead people to give the intuitively wrong answer.

With that said, I would be tempted to say Nadal too :-D

Odds have him at around 25 percent (and Novak between 20 and 25 percent) , which is quite high to have 21 slams in 2.5 months :eek:
Oh, I was looking for odds online but I couldn't find any, most likely because of THAT. What website are you using?
 

Eren

Professional
On paper:
Nadal has more combined slams of 16 to 4 at the 2 events.
Nadal has more individual RGs
Nadal has more individual USOs
Nadal has a winning H2H against nole at RG
Nadal has a winning H2H against nole at USO
Nadals favourite clay tournament is at RG whereas Noles probably had the least succes at RG compared to other clay events hes played
Nadal has won RG-USO combo 4 times in the same year
Nole has never won both events in the same year.
Nole has lost 5 finals at the open compared to only 1 for nadal
Nole has lost 3 RG finals compared to 0 for Nadal.

Its weird if you show all these stats to a player who doesn't know much about tennis, they'll think Nadal is the obvious answer lol.
But obviously its far more complicated and I think Nole can probably recover quicker between the 2 slams so it should be interesting
It's like comparing a legend to a mere mortal lol. Or some Spanish bull vs a counterfeit product lmao.

You're right though, stats don't show the whole story.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
If both come out of the gate playing like we're used to, then obviously the answer is Bull.

Because Nadal has a better chance of beating Djokovic in NY than Djokovic has of beating Nadal in Paris. I don't think either one will win both, but strictly in terms of odds making I have to go with Rafa strictly because of his French Open dominance.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
The answer is Nadal, but I don't think it would really surprise anyone if Djokovic did it. Maybe a slight surprise if he wins RG, but he's still 3rd (maybe even 2nd) favourite there.
 

Atennisone

Hall of Fame
Djokovic has a better chance to beat Nadal on clay than Nadal has against Djokovic on harrd

Djokovic has a worse chance to beat Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas than Nadal on both surfaces
 

Swingmaster

Rookie
Option C: Thiem. Thiem is presently sprinting up some Austrian Alps. His epic training montage will end with at least one trophy, possibly two in his hands.
 
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