Who is a bigger threat for Djokovic in the Wimbledon final: Kyrgios or Nadal?

[Deleted member 629564]

Of course assuming Djokovic win over Norrie.

Grass H2H Djokovic vs Kyrgios
0-0

Grass H2H Djokovic vs Nadal
2-2

2018 Wimbledon     SF  Djokovic  6-4 3-6 7-6(9) 3-6 10-8
2011 Wimbledon     F   Djokovic  6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
2008 Queen's Club  F   Nadal     7-6(6) 7-5
2007 Wimbledon     SF  Nadal     3-6 6-1 4-1 Ret.

 

[aman92]

Duhh.. Obviously Nadal assuming he is reasonably fit

 

[Rogibear]

Nick never been beaten by djoko and its gona remain the way on Sunday. Gona be the most unbelievable scenes when Saint nick wins the whole thing

 

[Lleytonstation]

I'd say equal.

A fit rafa and a zoning NK both have about 40% chance.

 

[travlerajm]

I'd say equal.

A fit rafa and a zoning NK both have about 40% chance.

Yes. Uninjured Rafa and Motivated Nick about same odds.

 

[ibbi]

Kyrgios is a complete unknown at this stage, so how can this be answered? Just listening to (most) of his talk in his press conferences this week, the guy is in a completely different headspace to any place he's ever been. He literally appears to have grown up some. If it is as legit as it appears he can absolutely be dangerous given the way he's serving. Also, the darkness inside of me would sort of love to see a dude grow up, win Wimbledon, and then go to jail for 2 years.

 

[Deleted member 629564]

Also, the darkness inside of me would sort of love to see a dude grow up, win Wimbledon, and then go to jail for 2 years.

So Beckeresque.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Nadal obviously

 

[prosperned]

Kyrgios can serve and win one TB but he’s honestly got no chance of breaking Djokovic.

 

[Marco Rotim]

Kyrgios is a complete unknown at this stage, so how can this be answered? Just listening to (most) of his talk in his press conferences this week, the guy is in a completely different headspace to any place he's ever been. He literally appears to have grown up some. If it is as legit as it appears he can absolutely be dangerous given the way he's serving. Also, the darkness inside of me would sort of love to see a dude grow up, win Wimbledon, and then go to jail for 2 years.

I think at this point Kyrgios and Novak both are pretty angry in their lives for various events that have happened, Novak must be wanting the first slam win of the year very badly and Kyrgios must be angry after the allegations against him from his ex, they both don't look like the type of guys that a guy with bandages on his abdomen needing a tie breaker in the 5th set vs Fritz to win can beat back to back.

 

[mike danny]

Nadal probably as Kyrgios isn't gonna hold his behavior steady in a slam final.

 

[TheNachoMan]

Anyone who votes for Kyrgios must be trolling. lol
2 wins against a mediocre Novak in his worst year on tour don’t mean much.

 

[NeutralFan]

Kyrgios has made everyone believe he's some super talented player and would have won slam had he tried enough. Ffs, he doesn't have baseline gam nor movement to win slams .he keeps score compettetive thanks to his elite serve and you guys think wow what if he tried.

 

[Deleted member 765728]

Nadal and it's not really close.

 

[Sport]

Nadal has the abdominal physical issue. So probably Nicholas.

 

[Hitman]

Nadal by a very clear margin.

Still think Djokodal is 55-45 in favor of Djokovic.

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

Kyrgios has made everyone believe he's some super talented player and would have won slam had he tried enough. Ffs, he doesn't have baseline gam nor movement to win slams .he keeps score compettetive thanks to his elite serve and you guys think wow what if he tried.

While I do believe his talent is overrated and his stupid “not trying” is also to some extent an excuse as he could not live with the idea of trying his very best and nevertheless coming short, one also has to admit that his H2H against both the big three as well as the best of the NextGen mugs is way better than his ranking would suggest. So one can say he is not living up to his full potential even though it is of course ridiculous to even suggest he had the talent of a 10 slam winner or something.

 

[Sport]

Nadal probably as Kyrgios isn't gonna hold his behavior steady in a slam final.

Also because Nadal is a better player. I mean, when he is physically fine. The abdominal issue did bother him in the service motion

 

[PaddyDutch]

This is all moot since Cam Norrie will win the SF in 5 sets

 

[zvelf]

This is all moot since Cam Norrie will win the SF in 5 sets

I will wager turning the loser's avatar into a sad-faced clown for a year that Norrie will not beat Djokovic in the semis.

 

[_phantom]

I watched Kyrgios' match today. Djokovic will win in straight sets should they meet in the final. I don't expect any TBs either. Even an injured Nadal will pose a bigger threat.

 

[zvelf]

Betting odds for Djokovic to win Wimbledon is -400 at the moment and this is even before he plays Norrie. If that's correct (and millions of dollars are on the line for the betting houses if it's not), neither Kyrgios or Nadal have much of a chance.

 

[weakera]

Healthy Rafa by far. Kyrgios has not played well in this tournament.

 

[Nostradamus]

Of course assuming Djokovic win over Norrie.

Grass H2H Djokovic vs Kyrgios
0-0

Grass H2H Djokovic vs Nadal
2-2

2018 Wimbledon     SF  Djokovic  6-4 3-6 7-6(9) 3-6 10-8
2011 Wimbledon     F   Djokovic  6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
2008 Queen's Club  F   Nadal     7-6(6) 7-5
2007 Wimbledon     SF  Nadal     3-6 6-1 4-1 Ret.

Are you talking about right now or Healthy Nadal or Healthy Kyrios ?? because those are 2 completely different situations. because if Rafa played Novak right now, it will be 6-1 6-1 6-1

 

[darthrafa]

k has tools not worse than sinner but he has more determination

 

[I Am Finnish]

Fedr

 

[Deleted member 629564]

Fedr

Yes, in 2023.

 

[jl809]

Uncompromised, it would be Nadal by a million miles. This current Djokovic has an amazing return of serve and a pretty good serve, but has no rally tolerance or offensive grounstrokes. Basically anyone who can knuckle down and get grinding against him can really trouble him, but simple rallying was completely beyond his first 4 opponents (especially TvR) and Sinner only managed it for 2 sets.

Nadal isn’t like them, in that he can maintain 5 sets of tennis without constantly hitting UEs after a rally goes past 10 strokes. Nick, however, IS like them. He does not have great rally tolerance or patience and like TvR he prefers to win points having done major damage within the first 5 shots. Djokovic will neutralise his serve and drive him nuts with his consistency, and Nick will implode once the easy results don’t come. It’s why he hates playing Murray too.

Having said that, Nadal is not going to be serving normally if he gets to the final, and Djokovic will absolutely feast on the kind of serving he did yesterday and will target the backhand unlike the incredibly stupid Fritz. So even with all that, Nick is still a bigger threat rn.

Basically Djokovic has this Wimbledon on lock now. After the TvR and Sinner match I was actually increasingly confident that Nadal could beat him because of Djokovic’s terrible rallying, but all that is obviously moot after yesterday.

 

[Hitman]

Uncompromised, it would be Nadal by a million miles. This current Djokovic has an amazing return of serve and a pretty good serve, but has no rally tolerance or offensive grounstrokes. Basically anyone who can knuckle down and get grinding against him can really trouble him, but simple rallying was completely beyond his first 4 opponents (especially TvR) and Sinner only managed it for 2 sets.

Nadal isn’t like them, in that he can maintain 5 sets of tennis without constantly hitting UEs after a rally goes past 10 strokes. Nick, however, IS like them. He does not have great rally tolerance or patience and like TvR prefers to win points having done major damage within the first 5 shots. Djokovic will neutralise his serve and drive him nuts with his consistency, and Nick will implode once the easy results don’t come. It’s why he hates playing Murray too.

Having said that, Nadal is not going to be serving normally if he gets to the final, and Djokovic will absolutely feast on the kind of serving he did yesterday and will target the backhand unlike the incredibly stupid Fritz. So even with all that, Nick is still a bigger threat rn.

Basically Djokovic has this Wimbledon on lock now. After the TvR and Sinner match I was actually increasingly confident that Nadal could beat him because of Djokovic’s terrible rallying, but all that is obviously moot after yesterday.

You actually think Nadal will walk into the final like a sacrificial lamb and let Djokovic simply execute him? If he is going into that final, it is because he will have the tools needed to win, otherwise seriously, what is the point?

 

[NatF]

The injured one.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

We've yet to have seen Djokovic win a set against KyrGOAT...or even have a BP...

 

[jl809]

You actually think Nadal will walk into the final like a sacrificial lamb and let Djokovic simply execute him? If he is going into that final, it is because he will have the tools needed to win, otherwise seriously, what is the point?

Unless another “miracle” occurs, I can’t see how a doctor can patch him up enough to hit flat serves and drive BHs consistently. He won’t go in with no plan, he will adapt like he did against Fritz, slice serving and mixing in flat only occasionally for variety. He will try to win with his FH, slice, drop shots and point construction, all of which are elite. But Djokovic is way too intelligent to let him get by on those. It will be like 2018 where serve + return won it for Djokovic

 

[Bumbaliceps]

You actually think Nadal will walk into the final like a sacrificial lamb and let Djokovic simply execute him? If he is going into that final, it is because he will have the tools needed to win, otherwise seriously, what is the point?

He will go if he can go

 

[InsideOut900]

Uncompromised, it would be Nadal by a million miles. This current Djokovic has an amazing return of serve and a pretty good serve, but has no rally tolerance or offensive grounstrokes. Basically anyone who can knuckle down and get grinding against him can really trouble him, but simple rallying was completely beyond his first 4 opponents (especially TvR) and Sinner only managed it for 2 sets.

If you think Nadal outgrinds Djokovic on grass, you may be in for a surprise.

He is older and slower than Djokovic, while also having the inferior serve + return.
Nadal is the one who has to take risks in rallies.

 

[Hitman]

Unless another “miracle” occurs, I can’t see how a doctor can patch him up enough to hit flat serves and drive BHs consistently. He won’t go in with no plan, he will adapt like he did against Fritz, slice serving and mixing in flat only occasionally for variety. He will try to win with his FH, slice, drop shots and point construction, all of which are elite. But Djokovic is way too intelligent to let him get by on those. It will be like 2018 where serve + return won it for Djokovic

If Nadal goes in without his serve working, he is a dead man, we all know this. Djokovic gives serious problems to a well serving Nadal, returning the ball into his feet, if Djokovic has easy serves to return, each game that Nadal serves in will be a struggle, and he will be on the back foot a lot. His other shots will not be enough if he cannot serve.

 

[Hitman]

He will go if he can go

And in your opinion, what would that look like at a bare minimum?

He certainly won't be going in, if he cannot serve against the greatest returner of all time. He will need that shot working big time outside of clay.

 

[InsideOut900]

If Nadal goes in without his serve working, he is a dead man, we all know this. Djokovic gives serious problems to a well serving Nadal, returning the ball into his feet, if Djokovic has easy serves to return, each game that Nadal serves in will be a struggle, and he will be on the back foot a lot. His other shots will not be enough if he cannot serve.

Tbh, Novak is better as a reactive returner against flat serves than generating pace on weak ones.

 

[jl809]

If you think Nadal outgrinds Djokovic on grass, you may be in for a surprise.

He is older and slower than Djokovic, while also having the inferior serve + return.
He is the one who has to take risks in rallies.

“Grinding” refers to baseline stuff and not serve + return, surely? Am absolutely not disputing that Djokovic is vastly superior for serve and return. But Nadal outgrinded Djokovic from the baseline in 2018 (it’s why the match was so close despite Djokovic serving far more aces and service winners) and purely from what I have seen so far, Djokovic’s rally game has been really poor by his standards in this Wimbledon. I’m not saying Nadal’s is miles ahead, just definitely not inferior to Djokovic’s based on the past 5 matches.

 

[Bumbaliceps]

And in your opinion, what would that look like at a bare minimum?

He certainly won't be going in, if he cannot serve against the greatest returner of all time. He will need that shot working big time outside of clay.

Let's say his abdominal condition stay the same as they were against Fritz. He will still be competitive against Kyrgios, and he will try to win. If he wins, he is gonna play in the final

 

[Hitman]

Let's say his abdominal condition stay the same as they were against Fritz. He will still be competitive against Kyrgios, and he will try to win. If he wins, he is gonna play in the final

OK

 

[tex123]

Of course assuming Djokovic win over Norrie.

Grass H2H Djokovic vs Kyrgios
0-0

Grass H2H Djokovic vs Nadal
2-2

2018 Wimbledon     SF  Djokovic  6-4 3-6 7-6(9) 3-6 10-8
2011 Wimbledon     F   Djokovic  6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
2008 Queen's Club  F   Nadal     7-6(6) 7-5
2007 Wimbledon     SF  Nadal     3-6 6-1 4-1 Ret.

Where is the option - Djokovic?

 

[InsideOut900]

“Grinding” refers to baseline stuff and not serve + return, surely? Am absolutely not disputing that Djokovic is vastly superior for serve and return. But Nadal outgrinded Djokovic from the baseline in 2018 (it’s why the match was so close despite Djokovic serving far more aces and service winners) and purely from what I have seen so far, Djokovic’s rally game has been really poor by his standards in this Wimbledon. I’m not saying Nadal’s is miles ahead, just definitely not inferior to Djokovic’s based on the past 5 matches.

He outhit Novak. Had an exceptional shotmaking day. It's not the same.

Novak's rallying is more reliable due to his better movement and depth of shot, hence why I said Nadal needs to take risks like he did in 2018.

I am also not saying Nadal can't win, he totally can.

 

[Hitman]

Tbh, Novak is better as a reactive returner against flat serves than generating pace on weak ones.

He will still take those powder puff serves from Rafa and eat them up. Because lets face it, if that was the key to hurt Novak's ROS, it would be something everyone would be implementing all the time on him. Djokovic will quickly find his timing, return deep into the corners and make Nadal move around constantly by having him on the backfoot. I don't think Nadal serving soft helps at all in this match up unless Novak will truly suck on the match day.

 

[InsideOut900]

He will still take those powder puff serves from Rafa and eat them up. Because lets face it, if that was the key to hurt Novak's ROS, it would be something everyone would be implementing all the time on him. Djokovic will quickly find his time, return deep into the corners and make Nadal move around constantly by having him on the backfoot. I don't think Nadal serving soft helps at all in this match up unless Novak will truly suck on the match day.

He was munching Nadal's flat serves harder in Wimb 11 than his soft serves in USO 11.

It's obviously worse to serve slow because you don't get free points, just saying Novak won't punish it as hard as most expect

 

[Hitman]

He was munching Nadal's flat serves harder in Wimb 11 than his soft serves in USO 11.

It's obviously worse to serve slow because you don't get free points, just saying Novak won't punish it as hard as most expect

It's not about winning points as quickly as possible though, it's about being able to get onto the front foot and make each game an absolute struggle for Nadal to hold, wearing him down, not giving him easy service games. Do you think Nadal will be able to keep grinding out long service games time and time again for best of five against Djokovic, especially if he is injured? The serve needs to work on grass more than any other surface.

 

[Nadal15thslam]

It's not about winning points as quickly as possible though, it's about being able to get onto the front foot and make each game an absolute struggle for Nadal to hold, wearing him down, not giving him easy service games. Do you think Nadal will be able to keep grinding out long service games time and time again for best of five against Djokovic, especially if he is injured? The serve needs to work on grass more than any other surface.

If Nadal is less than 95% or 90% he doesn't have a chance against Djokovic, it's common knowledge.

 

[InsideOut900]

It's not about winning points as quickly as possible though, it's about being able to get onto the front foot and make each game an absolute struggle for Nadal to hold, wearing him down, not giving him easy service games. Do you think Nadal will be able to keep grinding out long service games time and time again for best of five against Djokovic, especially if he is injured? The serve needs to work on grass more than any other surface.

Well, ok, this I agree with this.

Against Sinner, Novak's serving % made a huge difference in the last 3 sets. He will look to create a big gap from Nadal here.

 

[Hitman]

Well, ok, this I agree with this.

Against Sinner, Novak's serving % made a huge difference in the last 3 sets. He will look to create a big gap from Nadal here.

Yes. Don't want to look past Norrie have the match of his life, but yeah, should Djokovic actually played INJURED Nadal, then Nadal is in serious trouble. But I think if Nadal plays that final, it is because he believes he can win, and that must mean he can hit his serve well again.

 

[rhoder]

Lol the moment Kygrios meets someone with some consistency in his return games is when that apparent “cool” head will blow off.

 

[Tennisdoctors]

Our team was split but overall if Nadal not serving well expect Djokovic to prefer injured Nadal over Kyrgios