Who is going to be world no.1 at the end of 2012: Federer or Djokovic?

It is harder to call now. I expect Federer to do better indoors but if Djokovic wins the U.S Open it will still be very hard for Federer since it should be easy for Djokovic to improve on last years horrendous post U.S Open performance, and not even easy for Federer to match his virtual sweep of last year. It probably depends alot on if Djokovic wins the U.S Open or not.
 
It depends on how Djokovic does at the U.S. Open. He won't in a million years lose in the semis, but he could go out to Murray in the final or possibly Del Potro in the quarters. If he wins, though, that's a lot of points. And I wouldn't bank on a one-year-older Federer to have as fantastic an indoor season as he did last year.
 
Nole wins the USO he will likely to end #1. I don't expect Roger to go undefeated again after the USO.
 
Nole is not going past the semis. Ferrer wins this,:) admittedly I just flip-flop from a probable Berd, Delpo and Murray win.:oops:
 
Djokovic will end the year at number 1 the only way this doesn't happen is federer playing the Asian swing and winning those tourneys and then defending all he has from last year
 
Good question! I don't see Federer defending Paris, as I think his success this year will take its toll on him during the indoor season, but I think Basel and the WTF should be his best bets.

It would be a whole lot easier if Novak doesn't win the US Open though.
 
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Depends on if Djokovic wins the US Open or not, though either way I feel he is the big favourite. If he does then I feel Federer will believe that Djokovic is the true no1 anyway and won't be that motivated to finish the year end no 1. No point being no 1 if everybody considers Djokovic the real no 1. If Djokovic does not win the Open, then not only does Federer have a much greater chance, but he will be recognised by most as the rightful no 1 if he does better indoors.
 
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With indoors coming up probably Roger. Djoker just isn't as good at this time of the year.. He really needed the USO and he didn't get it
 
Federer all the way. Djokovic's looking a little shaky these days. It will clearly be very close though.
 
Probably Federer. I do, however, think Djokovic will perform better during the fall indoor season than he did last year. Dunno why, just a feeling.
 
I'd bet on Novak right now, he has next to nothing to defend for the rest of the year while fed has loads. Fed can however pick up points in shanghai and the asian swing, so it will be neck and neck but I say djokovic
 
Djokovic I think. He has a nice margin (not big, but there are only a few tournamentes left). Even if Fed wins Paris, Basel and WTF, he'll have to hope Djokovic loses early in one of them. And I don't think Fed can have such a strong finish like last year.
 
It's a long shot, but I am going with Roger; I think indoors is still his forte and he will do well; plus he might play in China and get some points there as well, :)
 
DolgoSantoro said:
I'd bet on Novak right now, he has next to nothing to defend for the rest of the year while fed has loads. Fed can however pick up points in shanghai and the asian swing, so it will be neck and neck but I say djokovic
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YE rankings have nothing to do with how much you have to defend (from what i understand, correct me). Novak is 1005 points ahead of Fred, Fred has to cover those 1005 points and whatever else Nole might add.

Since the point gap is quite large, I think Nole has an edge. I think both would like to finish as #1, Fred since he may never have another chance to make it 6, and Nole since he did not win USO. So I think Nole will not let it go away easily.
 
roundiesee said:
It's a long shot, but I am going with Roger; I think indoors is still his forte and he will do well; plus he might play in China and get some points there as well, :)
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Imho, he *has* to add Beijing to his schedule, or it's going to be almost impossible to catch up with Djokovic.

If Federer asks for a wildcard for Beijing or Tokyo (preferably Beijing), then I'd say advantage Federer. Otherwise, advantage Djokovic, who could be 1,400 points ahead after Beijing--and that's a lot of ground to cover in four tournaments, especially if Federer has had no "warm-up" when he enters Shanghai (more chances of an early exit). Anyway, it's going to be close.
 
Year end number 1 with the fewest number of Tournament wins

Djokovic has 3 tournament wins this year. It is conceivable that if Federer does badly in the indoor season or even doesn't produce his normal standard, and Novak makes semi's and finals (since he doesn't have much to defend from last year) - then Djokovic could be year end number 1.

Has there ever been a year end number 1 with so few tournament victories?
 
timnz said:
Djokovic has 3 tournament wins this year. It is conceivable that if Federer does badly in the indoor season or even doesn't produce his normal standard, and Novak makes semi's and finals (since he doesn't have much to defend from last year) - then Djokovic could be year end number 1.

Has there ever been a year end number 1 with so few tournament victories?
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Sampras was #1 with only four tournament wins in 1998, including three "small" ones (Wimbledon, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Vienna). But you needed much less points to be #1 in his era, the competition wasn't in the all-time-great category and 3,000-4,000 points were generally enough to top the rankings (which would be about 6,000-8,000 points today, as ranking points were more or less doubled). Sounds crazy, I know, but there you go--ever since Djokovic broke the top 3 in 2007, he basically ended each year with more points than Sampras did when he was #1 (heck, even Del Potro did, in 2009). :-?
 
I love how people use the "Federer has too many points to defend" line of argument when saying he wont be the end of year #1 and that Djokovic will.

Yet it's Djokovic who hasn't been defending points all that well, not Federer. Relative to Djokovic Federer is something like 1000 points up on last year in the last two tournaments alone!

If it's harder for Federer to win majors these days as people say then that, in relative terms, must mean non-majors are the tournaments which are easier for him to well in. Federer has plenty to defend between now and the end of the year but it's not implausible. He's done well the last two years post-US Open and they were otherwise two of his worst in at least the past 6 or 7 years.

Federer seems to have a knack for playing well till the end of the year for some reason. I hope he is well rested in the next few weeks and comes back roaring as he often has after atypically early losses at the majors.

Djokovic?.. He looks somewhat spent to me. I hope he cam make hay in his recovery and prep for the last part of the year also.
 
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Bobby Jr said:
I love how people use the "Federer has too many points to defend" line of argument when saying he wont be the end of year #1 and that Djokovic will.

Yet it's Djokovic who hasn't been defending points all that well, not Federer. Relative to Djokovic Federer is something like 1000 points up on last year in the last two tournaments alone!

If it's harder for Federer to win majors these days as people say then that, in relative terms, must mean non-majors are the tournaments which are easier for him to well in. Federer has plenty to defend between now and the end of the year but it's not implausible. He's done well the last two years post-US Open and they were otherwise two of his worst in at least the past 6 or 7 years.

Federer seems to have a knack for playing well till the end of the year for some reason. I hope he is well rested in the next few weeks and comes back roaring as he often has after atypically early losses at the majors.

Djokovic?.. He looks somewhat spent to me. I hope he cam make hay in his recovery and prep for the last part of the year also.
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Fed has to defend Basel,Bercy and the WTF. It's a bit unlikely he'll defend that much given how much he's already won,how much mileage does he have left this season? And it's also unlikely that Djokovic won't make up major ground considering how less he's won this season compared to 2011.

Will Fed get YE #1 if he doesn't defend those? The onus is on Federer,he may or maynot deliver, the latter is more likely given his age.

For me it depends on how Fed handles his "off days". Lately, I've noticed he wins tournies where he can survive his off days.
 
Leaning towards Djokovic at the moment (55/45), a 1000 point advantage is pretty big if you consider that there are like 3-4 tournaments to be played in 2012.
 
monfed said:
Fed has to defend Basel,Bercy and the WTF. It's a bit unlikely he'll defend that much given how much he's already won,how much mileage does he have left this season? And it's also unlikely that Djokovic won't make up major ground considering how less he's won this season compared to 2011.

Will Fed get YE #1 if he doesn't defend those? The onus is on Federer,he may or maynot deliver, the latter is more likely given his age.

For me it depends on how Fed handles his "off days". Lately, I've noticed he wins tournies where he can survive his off days.
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'Defending' points is all a bit moot. Roger needs to win 1010 points more than Novak from now until the season's end to be year end number 1.

Will Roger play 3 weeks back to back?
 
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batz said:
'Defending' points is all a bit moot. Roger needs to win 1010 points more than Novak from now until the season's end to be year end number 1.

Will Roger play 3 weeks back to back?
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Hey batz, firstly, congrats on the USO win!! How did you celebrate? Was it bigger than the Olympic win? :)

Ontopic -
How can you win points if you're defending tournies? Thats technically impossible isn't it? Fed basically only has Shanghai to gain points so he'll have to gain big there,maybe win the whole thing. From Basel to WTF,Djokovic has a ton to gain while Roger has nothing. Infact about 2500 points will be dropped before the start of the WTF so Roger will infact drop to #2 ,actually.

Again,where is Roger winning points exactly? Djokovic just has to improve his results from last year to clinch #1.
 
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tennis_pro said:
Leaning towards Djokovic at the moment (55/45), a 1000 point advantage is pretty big if you consider that there are like 3-4 tournaments to be played in 2012.
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Dammit tennis_pro , so glad to see you back!!! Welcome back!! Hope you didnt take the USO loss too hard(I know I did). :)
 
monfed said:
Hey batz, firstly, congrats on the USO win!! How did you celebrate? Was it bigger than the Olympic win? :)


How can you win points if you're defending tournies? Thats technically impossible isn't it? Fed basically only has Shanghai to gain points so he'll have to gain big there,maybe win the whole thing. From Basel to WTF,Djokovic has a ton to gain while Roger has nothing. Infact about 2500 points will be dropped before the start of the WTF so Roger will infact drop to #2 ,actually.

Again,where is Roger winning points exactly? Djokovic just has to improve his results from last year to clinch #1.
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Thanks and no way! :)

Again mate, it's easier just to use race points from here on in if you're looking at year end number 1. Novak leads the race by 1005 points. That gap will remain the best indicator as to who is most likely to finish year end number 1.
 
monfed said:
Dammit tennis_pro , so glad to see you back!!! Welcome back!! Hope you didnt take the USO loss too hard(I know I did). :)
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To be honest, I was sitting on the fence with this one, initially I was rooting for Djokovic as I don't like pushers winning majors but on second thought had Djokovic won the Open, it would've been impossible for Federer to catch up in the race.

All in all, I didn't miss much, the only match that was slamworthy was Ferrer-Tipsarevic, other than that it was an even bigger bore than the French Open which is hard to top:)
 
Is Fed playing the Asian swing this year? If Djoko does well there and Fed skips it, I really like Djoko's chances. Also is Murray playing Beijing or Tokyo? Fed is almost guaranteed to win Basel but Djoko is the heavy favorite in Beijing (if Murray plays Tokyo). If Fed skips Shanghai, Djoko could get a lot of extra points there. Both Fed and Djoko should do well in Paris unless they're overtired. Fed is the overwhelming favorite at WTF as usual but if Djoko gets past RR, he will almost certainly end up as the #1. Really interesting race to the finish line this year!
 
veroniquem said:
Is Fed playing the Asian swing this year? If Djoko does well there and Fed skips it, I really like Djoko's chances. Also is Murray playing Beijing or Tokyo? Fed is almost guaranteed to win Basel but Djoko is the heavy favorite in Beijing (if Murray plays Tokyo). If Fed skips Shanghai, Djoko could get a lot of extra points there. Both Fed and Djoko should do well in Paris unless they're overtired. Fed is the overwhelming favorite at WTF as usual but if Djoko gets past RR, he will almost certainly end up as the #1. Really interesting race to the finish line this year!
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It's quite interesting that since 2004 whoever won Wimbledon ended the year ranked 1st, Federer in 2004-2007, Nadal in 2008, Federer again in 2009, Nadal again in 2010, Djokovic in 2011.

I'm not gonna suggest anything but Federer won Wi...:)
 
Looking at how Roger performed today in DC, I'd say he's ready to rock the indoor season again and slam the door shut on #1. Nole has a chance IF he sweeps the indoor.
 
Djokovic has no points to defend, Federer and Murray have a lot. Djoker would almost have to shoot himself in the leg a la Plaxico Burress to lose the #1 ranking. Federer has to not only win another masters 1000 and the tour final, he has to hop Djokovic doesn't show up at all.
 
bjsnider said:
Djokovic has no points to defend, Federer and Murray have a lot. Djoker would almost have to shoot himself in the leg a la Plaxico Burress to lose the #1 ranking. Federer has to not only win another masters 1000 and the tour final, he has to hop Djokovic doesn't show up at all.
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It's not about defending points any longer. It's just how many you add on.

However, Joker is ahead by 1005 so that's going to be hard to cover, in addition to whatever Joker adds on.
 
Sentinel said:
It's not about defending points any longer. It's just how many you add on.

However, Joker is ahead by 1005 so that's going to be hard to cover, in addition to whatever Joker adds on.
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Pretty much this. Joker will be YE world no. 1. Does anyone else expect Fed to go off the boil indoors this year ? He had a great run culminating with the Wimby and Wno. 1, but the USOpen was anti-climatic to say the least. He built the platform for reclaiming the WNo. 1 with his indoor run last year. Now that he's got the No.1 record, and the Wimby, I find it hard that he'll be able to summon the motivation to go all out and win everything to stay No. 1.
 
In hope that Roger keeps his number one. He derserves it and he is the real number one anyway. The other guys are number one for two weeks! Roger knows how to keep the number one rank and he is the Daddy of the pack!
 
sunny_cali said:
Pretty much this. Joker will be YE world no. 1. Does anyone else expect Fed to go off the boil indoors this year ? He had a great run culminating with the Wimby and Wno. 1, but the USOpen was anti-climatic to say the least. He built the platform for reclaiming the WNo. 1 with his indoor run last year. Now that he's got the No.1 record, and the Wimby, I find it hard that he'll be able to summon the motivation to go all out and win everything to stay No. 1.
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True, but that doesn't mean he can't get a couple more wins in before this year closes. He was in good shape at the USO and that's what matters. Berdych played great, but it's not everyday guys like Berdych come out like that. Fed has got taken out in the last couple years by someone on fire like TB or JWT and then those guys lost the next round.

He can still add on points at WTF, Basel, Paris?/Shanghai?. I think he can continue his run till November, it depends on how well Joker plays from here. If it's close Roger will make a push, if not he could take it easy and let go.

YE #1 is not so important to Roger as keeping fit for the slams next season (and possibly a good WTF to finish this season).

I'd say it depends not on his summoning motivation, but how important he views being YE #1.
 
Feds indoor record speaks for itself so he is the favorite despite his age.

I agree on him and his team scheduling intelligently in order not get burnt out for the start of next season.
 
Sentinel said:
True, but that doesn't mean he can't get a couple more wins in before this year closes. He was in good shape at the USO and that's what matters. Berdych played great, but it's not everyday guys like Berdych come out like that. Fed has got taken out in the last couple years by someone on fire like TB or JWT and then those guys lost the next round.

He can still add on points at WTF, Basel, Paris?/Shanghai?. I think he can continue his run till November, it depends on how well Joker plays from here. If it's close Roger will make a push, if not he could take it easy and let go.

YE #1 is not so important to Roger as keeping fit for the slams next season (and possibly a good WTF to finish this season).

I'd say it depends not on his summoning motivation, but how important he views being YE #1.
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Fed needs 1 more year-end #1 to tie Sampras. I think it should be his priority now. He is not going to have this chance again as he gets even older next year.
 
Everyone (barring Fed) pretty much SUCKS indoors to put it bluntly these days.. So Fed even at 31 would have to seriously screw the pooch to lose that #1 ranking, regardless of how many points he has to defend. I would have to assume, Fed will win a Masters tournament as well at least..

Also Players in general just don't go hard for the YEC anymore like they used to


Djoker really isn't known for his domination at the end of the year.. Last year, his season pretty much ended at the USO which took away from GOAT season status last year.. I would expect the same thing to happen this year.. Especially considering he was suffering from craps at the USO this year and his level is worse this year then it was last year. I bet he shuts the season down (at least mentally) and starts preparing for the Australian (since its his best surface)
 
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Fed will remain but Djokovich will be right behind him... Novak isn't playing the same as last year so I don't see him on the number one spot at least not till the end of this year.
 
90's Clay said:
Everyone (barring Fed) pretty much SUCKS indoors to put it bluntly these days.. So Fed even at 31 would have to seriously screw the pooch to lose that #1 ranking, regardless of how many points he has to defend. I would have to assume, Fed will win a Masters tournament as well at least..

Also Players in general just don't go hard for the YEC anymore like they used to


Djoker really isn't known for his domination at the end of the year.. Last year, his season pretty much ended at the USO which took away from GOAT season status last year.. I would expect the same thing to happen this year.. Especially considering he was suffering from craps at the USO this year and his level is worse this year then it was last year. I bet he shuts the season down (at least mentally) and starts preparing for the Australian (since its his best surface)
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Yep, it seems like Federer is the only one who actually takes the Year-End Championship seriously these days. The other top guys are just their, but really don't try nearly as hard as they can. The year-end title used to be a lot more competitive in the 80s-90s where many attacking players were at the top of the game. 1996 Year End Final between Becker vs Sampras was among the most competitive indoors matches I've ever seen.
 
helloworld said:
Yep, it seems like Federer is the only one who actually takes the Year-End Championship seriously these days. The other top guys are just their, but really don't try nearly as hard as they can. The year-end title used to be a lot more competitive in the 80s-90s where many attacking players were at the top of the game. 1996 Year End Final between Becker vs Sampras was among the most competitive indoors matches I've ever seen.
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I agree.. Most guys today just completely shut it down after the USO. Eras past the end of the year was every bit as important as any other time of the year. Considering how much the important of everything has pretty much lost its luster anymore, hell they may as well just end the season after the USO.. No one really seems to care about anything after the USO is over anyways
 
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