Who is least likely to win a(nother) Slam?

Who is least likely to win a(nother) Slam?

  • Medvedev

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Zverev

    Votes: 3 3.1%
  • Tsitsipas

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Rublev

    Votes: 65 66.3%
  • Berrettini

    Votes: 29 29.6%

  • Total voters
    98

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Everyone is touting these players as future Slam winners, but which player do you think is least likely to win a Slam (or, in Medvedev's case a second Slam)?
 

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
In this order, from least likely to most likely:

1) Rublev
2) Berrettini
3) Tsitsipas
4) Zverev
5) Medvedev

Rublev will never win a slam, I'm almost certain of that. Berrettini probably won't either. Tsitsipas can only win on clay once Nadal and Djokovic get too old. Zverev and Medvedev have decent chances on hard courts, less so on clay and grass.
 

ibbi

Legend
Rublev least likely by miles. Berrettini has made major strides forward this year, so I wouldn't discount him. He's clearly the best of them on grass at this point, so he has that going for him.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Yes, I was a bit torn between Berrettini and Rublev honestly.

It's very promising that Berrettini made a Slam final, but I'm not yet convinced he can make the final anywhere else except Wimbledon (watch him reach the final of the AO next year, to prove me wrong). And I can't picture Rublev breaking through between Medvedvev, Tsitsipas, and Zverev
 

Bubcay

Professional
In this order, from least likely to most likely:

1) Rublev
2) Berrettini
3) Tsitsipas
4) Zverev
5) Medvedev

Rublev will never win a slam, I'm almost certain of that. Berrettini probably won't either. Tsitsipas can only win on clay once Nadal and Djokovic get too old. Zverev and Medvedev have decent chances on hard courts, less so on clay and grass.
100% agree.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
In this order, from least likely to most likely:

1) Rublev
2) Berrettini
3) Tsitsipas
4) Zverev
5) Medvedev
That would be my order too.

I do think Berrettini could luck a major, especially at Wimby or RG, but his chances are also slim. I agree Rublev probably will never do it. At least not unless something drastic changes. The other three, to me, are locks to win majors if they strike within the next three years. Hard to say after that when the younger guys get fully physically formed.
 
The ATP will resemble the WTA once the big 3 retire, actually Djokovic and Nadal as for Federer I’m sorry to say but he’s done winning slams.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
The ATP will resemble the WTA once the big 3 retire, actually Djokovic and Nadal as for Federer I’m sorry to say but he’s done winning slams.
For the first part of this....I'm not certain the ATP can resemble the WTA, because I think confidence plays a much bigger role. Don't you think Medvedev has a slight advantage over the no. 3 and no. 4 right now in terms of confidence?
 
For the first part of this....I'm not certain the ATP can resemble the WTA, because I think confidence plays a much bigger role. Don't you think Medvedev has a slight advantage over the no. 3 and no. 4 right now in terms of confidence?
Confidence is only one aspect of domination. You have to be at least a level above the field AND have the mental fortitude to dominate week in and week out.

none of the mentioned names have demonstrated these two key characteristics.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Confidence is only one aspect of domination. You have to be at least a level above the field AND have the mental fortitude to dominate week in and week out.

none of the mentioned names have demonstrated these two key characteristics.
I said 'slight' advantage for a reason. No one is talking about utter domination.
 
For the first part of this....I'm not certain the ATP can resemble the WTA, because I think confidence plays a much bigger role. Don't you think Medvedev has a slight advantage over the no. 3 and no. 4 right now in terms of confidence?
Why do you think confidence plays a larger role?
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Why do you think confidence plays a larger role?
Probably should have specified, but I think it is important particularly in Bo5 because you are less likely to lose faith in your serve (Zverev) as often and to need fewer mental vacations mid-match (Tsitsipas). Medvedev has been slowly closing the gap on Zverev in terms of h2h and has dominated the h2h with Tsitsipas. And with the confidence of bagging his first Slam, I think that could spur him to push a bit harder in a close Bo3 or secure a crucial break if he were down in a 5th set.

Having, is better than not having, imo, when it comes to Slam titles or confidence.
 

socallefty

Legend
I think Rublev seems to be the only one in this group who might not be good enough to win a Slam. If you take Djokovic and Nadal out of the equation along with a out-of-confidence Thiem, the favorites for the Slams would be Zverev/Medvedev - hard courts, Berrettini - Wimbledon, Tsitsipas - FO. So, one would think that they will all win a few Slams once Nadal and Djokovic lose their dominance.
 

El_Yotamo

Hall of Fame
This might be recency bias but I think Med winning further slams is more or less a foregone conclusion. Zverev and Tsits will always be favored over Berrettini and Rublev, except possibly at WImbledon where Matteo could edge out a choking Zed. Rublev however seems to be unfavorable against all the above on at least two surfaces so to me he's clearly the least likely. In conclusion:
P(Rublev)<P(Berrettini)<P(Tsits)~P(Zverev)<P(Medvedev)
 

tex123

Professional
Everyone is touting these players as future Slam winners, but which player do you think is least likely to win a Slam (or, in Medvedev's case a second Slam)?
I think you inadvertently listed them in the order already - most likely to least likely. :D

Least likely is big 3 in my opinion.
 

onyxrose81

Hall of Fame
Rublev is less likely by far. Berrettini is the only one who can currently play on grass. The other three...enough said.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
Rublev, he's aggressively mediocre as a top player. Berrittini at least has his serve and a field full of people that can't return worth a damn to help him grab Wimbledon.
 

Devtennis01

G.O.A.T.
Berrettini. The backhand is too big a weakness. One of the seven guys he needs to beat to win a slam will be well rounded enough, or have enough of a weapon on either groundstroke side to exploit it.
 

topher

Hall of Fame
Berrettini. The backhand is too big a weakness. One of the seven guys he needs to beat to win a slam will be well rounded enough, or have enough of a weapon on either groundstroke side to exploit it.
The thing about that is without Novak, Berretini would very likely already have a slam (Wimbledon this year over a Shapovalov who likely would have collapsed and lost). You can’t say that about Rublev.

The sad thing is there aren’t a lot of players out there with the variety or acumen to attack and break down Berr’s backhand.
 

Jonesy

Hall of Fame
Rublev took Rafa's spirit of play and implemented in a ball bashing style. It would be better if he went defensive like young Rafa. Take away Djokodal and Berrettini is the favorite to win Wimbledon in the next years.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
The thing about that is without Novak, Berretini would very likely already have a slam (Wimbledon this year over a Shapovalov who likely would have collapsed and lost). You can’t say that about Rublev.

The sad thing is there aren’t a lot of players out there with the variety or acumen to attack and break down Berr’s backhand.
True, but I think as some of the other players get better on grass, I'm not convinced he'll have quite as much success. Sure, his serve is great but what about his movement? If Medvedev and Zverev continue serving like they did at the USO, I'm not convinced they can't contain Berrettini.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Slight advantage from one player isn’t enough to separate the ATP to WTA in terms of inconsistent champions.
Today there is still more consistency on the ATP than on the WTA. Everyone is tapping Med or Zed or Tsitsipas to win a Slam, and they are reaching Fs, SFs, and QFs. We don't see that on the WTA really. Except for Barty (and previously Osaka), we don't really have favorites.
 
Today there is still more consistency on the ATP than on the WTA. Everyone is tapping Med or Zed or Tsitsipas to win a Slam, and they are reaching Fs, SFs, and QFs. We don't see that on the WTA really. Except for Barty (and previously Osaka), we don't really have favorites.
Reaching semis =/= winning slams.

You keep moving the goal post, bud.

I’ll make it clear for you, if there isn’t 1-3 guys constantly winning slams back to back then it might as well be the WTA.
 

Amen786

Semi-Pro
I didn't put him because we don't know how well he'll play when he returns, but you can pick him if you want.
I can't pick if you don't put, lol.
But yeah I'd like to go with Thiem from this bunch, followed by sascha because of his absymal record against top10 in slams, with every loss seemingly keeps on mounting more and more mental baggage, he can crumble under the pressure and be a taller version of Ferrer, aka gatekeeper.
 

Amen786

Semi-Pro
Reaching semis =/= winning slams.

You keep moving the goal post, bud.

I’ll make it clear for you, if there isn’t 1-3 guys constantly winning slams back to back then it might as well be the WTA.
There's an entire unique mathematical sign for that.


Why people are so noob at maths these days??:-D
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Reaching semis =/= winning slams.

You keep moving the goal post, bud.

I’ll make it clear for you, if there isn’t 1-3 guys constantly winning slams back to back then it might as well be the WTA.
I'm not trying to...

I'm simply saying that on the women's side, at least for the past 2 years, if Barty or Osaka isn't the winner, I think only a wild guess would help you pick the Slam winners. Barty is clearly no. 1, but after that it gets tricky. The no. 2 - no. 4 have 2 Slam Fs and no Slam titles for their whole careers.

Krejčíková? Best result before this year was a QF, and at 25, she's played in 7 main draws at a Slam. The bottom of the top 10

We've seen a lot of young faces win Slams in the past 3 years (2019, 2020, 2021), but most of them came more less out of nowhere. And with Andreescu's injuries, Oskaka and Kenin's off-court woes, that leaves only Świątek and Raducanu. Świątek couldn't defend, so maybe Raducanu can bring some order to the tour. I'll root for her, but it's hardly a guarantee.

----------
Meanwhile, on the ATP, we have had a very strong no. 1 in Novak this year. And a no. 2 pulling his weight in Medvedev, given that he took a Slam and made another F. The no. 3 player pushed the no. 1 player to 5 sets, the no. 4 player reached a F this year and also took the no 1 player to 5. And although Rublev is leading the poll and Roger, Rafa, Domi are injured, the no. 7 player reached a F, too.

And to top it off, Barty is younger than Novak, and the ATP Top 10 is younger than the WTA Top 10. So it is more likely that Medvedev will win 1 more than Mugu.
 

Wander

Hall of Fame
Rublev took Rafa's spirit of play and implemented in a ball bashing style. It would be better if he went defensive like young Rafa.
Rublev doesn't have nearly the footspeed to play like young Rafa. He's stuck with playing the way he plays.
 

Amen786

Semi-Pro
I know the symbol, but I don't know how to write it on my keyboard without looking it up.
If you're using aosp keyboard on android then just press the equals to symbol for a while from the numbers &symbols section and then There'll be a popup with 3 another symbol which you can tap and use.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
Most LIKELY : Titspas

LEAST LIKELY: Berretinni

Med maybe could win another slam. Zed might be a 0 slam or 1 slam wonder.
Titspas will likely get 5+ slams.
 

DIMI_D

Semi-Pro
I’m so surprised Rublev is number 1 in the poll, I was thinking Bert for sure but I think neither will win one anyway or at least the least likeliest to do so for sure..
 
I’m so surprised Rublev is number 1 in the poll, I was thinking Bert for sure but I think neither will win one anyway or at least the least likeliest to do so for sure..
Berrettini reaching the Wimbledon final is probably the main reason why people think he has more of a chance than Rublev.
 
Probably should have specified, but I think it is important particularly in Bo5 because you are less likely to lose faith in your serve (Zverev) as often and to need fewer mental vacations mid-match (Tsitsipas). Medvedev has been slowly closing the gap on Zverev in terms of h2h and has dominated the h2h with Tsitsipas. And with the confidence of bagging his first Slam, I think that could spur him to push a bit harder in a close Bo3 or secure a crucial break if he were down in a 5th set.

Having, is better than not having, imo, when it comes to Slam titles or confidence.
I agree with that, best of 5 and best of 3 are two entirely different sports. Guys like Thiem and Zverev are a perfect example: they look like superstars in best of 3, yet both cramp up in a best of 5 slam final.

Medvedev will definitely have the confidence and belief to tip the scales in his favor, but I wonder if the other players will benefit as well? The big 3 seal has been broken in a sense, and if it is a next gen vs Medvedev, then will they have the same level of doubt they had going up against a member of the big 3?
 
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