Who is the next man who will enter the top 4?

Mike Sams

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
It's been a Federer/Djokovic/Nadal/Murray dominated top 4 since 2008 (with a glimpse of Del Potro). In order for somebody to enter the top 4, one of the current top 4 guys will have to be knocked off. Who will be the one who gets knocked out of the top 4 and who will replace him? Will it happen in 2013?
 
Mike Sams said:
It's been a Federer/Djokovic/Nadal/Murray dominated top 4 since 2008 (with a glimpse of Del Potro). In order for somebody to enter the top 4, one of the current top 4 guys will have to be knocked off. Who will be the one who gets knocked out of the top 4 and who will replace him? Will it happen in 2013?
Click to expand...

Order of probability:

1.Nadal replaced by Ferrer
2.Federer slight chance of loosing a few positions
3.Andy/Nole not likely to be pushed out
 
Nadal is the obvious possability early in the year, but it will be due to half a year of complete inactivity, certainly not due to anyone surpassing him in reality as one of the big 4, especialy not old man Ferrer, the one who might replace him in the mathematical rankings early in the year. So that aside the greater likelihood is either Federer sometime in the next 2 years due to age decline, replaced by someone like an improved Del Potro, a more determined and consistent Berdych, or a much improved Raonic. The second most likely is a Nadal who is unable to come back his old self from his injuries.
 
Nadal is defending a lot and will probably fall out for a few weeks if not more to Ferrer, but he'll be back there once he starts getting back points from the later part of the season.
 
if things go well, ferrer should knock out the nadal after the AO. :)

1 Novak Djokovic 12,920
2 Roger Federer 10,265
3 Andy Murray 8,000
4 Rafael Nadal 6,690
5 David Ferrer 6,505
6 Tomas Berdych 4,680
7 Juan Martin Del Potro 4,480
8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3,490
9 Janko Tipsarevic 2,990
10 Richard Gasquet 2,515
 
vive le beau jeu ! said:
if things go well, ferrer should knock out the nadal after the AO. :)

1 Novak Djokovic 12,920
2 Roger Federer 10,265
3 Andy Murray 8,000
4 Rafael Nadal 6,690
5 David Ferrer 6,505
6 Tomas Berdych 4,680
7 Juan Martin Del Potro 4,480
8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3,490
9 Janko Tipsarevic 2,990
10 Richard Gasquet 2,515
Click to expand...

Gasquet is number 10?!
 
Ferrer is like 80% going into the top 4 by February next month. The gap between him and Nadal is 185 points, Ferrer needs to defend a QF while Rafa has a final. Surely you can't expect Nadal to reach the AO Final? Any loss before that for Rafa means bye bye to the #4 ranking.
 
Nadal if he doesnt draw Djokovic in his half, might well make the Australian Open final. It wouldnt surprise me. In the event he makes the semis he is the clear favorite vs Federer should they play, or anyone else besides Djokovic. The biggest problem will be not getting bumped out in one of the first 4 rounds given the rustiness.
 
I highly predict that Donald Young will be in the top 5 by the end of the year. Though after the AO, probably Ferrer and Del Pony will #5.
 
Ferrer most likely.

If Nadal fails to make the final then Ferrer only has to reach the 3rd round to overtake him.
 
In the short term I think Ferrer's almost certain to do it, unless Rafa pulls something amazing out the bag and reaches at least the AO SF. However, in the long term I think there might not be a "top four"; the current era just happens to be an unusual circumstance. Look at how things were prior to Federer/Nadal in 2005...

2004:
  1. Federer
  2. Roddick
  3. Hewitt
  4. Safin

2003:
  1. Roddick
  2. Federer
  3. Ferrero
  4. Agassi

2002:
  1. Hewitt
  2. Agassi
  3. Safin
  4. Ferrero

2001:
  1. Hewitt
  2. Kuerten
  3. Agassi
  4. Kafelnikov

2000:
  1. Kuerten
  2. Safin
  3. Sampras
  4. Norman

1999:
  1. Agassi
  2. Kafelnikov
  3. Sampras
  4. Enqvist

1998:
  1. Sampras
  2. Rios
  3. Corretja
  4. Rafter

1997:
  1. Sampras
  2. Rafter
  3. Chang
  4. Bjorkman

That's eight times in a row where there were at least two new faces in the top four every year. The stability at the top that we've had for so long is pretty unprecedented in my experience; I have a feeling that when the current guys' time is over, it'll go back to the [less predictable] way it used to be, at least for a while.


Regards,
MDL
 
It seems that Ferrer will enter first in the top 4, but on the other hand Del Potro has a much better chance to be in top 4 at the end of the 2013 season.
 
Monsieur_DeLarge said:
In the short term I think Ferrer's almost certain to do it, unless Rafa pulls something amazing out the bag and reaches at least the AO SF. However, in the long term I think there might not be a "top four"; the current era just happens to be an unusual circumstance. Look at how things were prior to Federer/Nadal in 2005...

2004:
  1. Federer
  2. Roddick
  3. Hewitt
  4. Safin

2003:
  1. Roddick
  2. Federer
  3. Ferrero
  4. Agassi

2002:
  1. Hewitt
  2. Agassi
  3. Safin
  4. Ferrero

2001:
  1. Hewitt
  2. Kuerten
  3. Agassi
  4. Kafelnikov

2000:
  1. Kuerten
  2. Safin
  3. Sampras
  4. Norman

1999:
  1. Agassi
  2. Kafelnikov
  3. Sampras
  4. Enqvist

1998:
  1. Sampras
  2. Rios
  3. Corretja
  4. Rafter

1997:
  1. Sampras
  2. Rafter
  3. Chang
  4. Bjorkman

That's eight times in a row where there were at least two new faces in the top four every year. The stability at the top that we've had for so long is pretty unprecedented in my experience; I have a feeling that when the current guys' time is over, it'll go back to the [less predictable] way it used to be, at least for a while.


Regards,
MDL
Click to expand...

hmm i still remember the top 10 in 2004. I remember it being really stacked at the time.
 
dlk said:
This is the only player who has demonstrated the potential. I agree.
Click to expand...
Both Raonic and Janiwicz have beaten Top 4 players, you don't call that potential?

They'll both be top 8 least by the end of next year.
 
Last edited:
Razoredge said:
Difference is Raonic and Janowicz have massive weapons.
Click to expand...

Said the actress to the bishop
sexface.gif
 
Ferrer isn't top 4 material. It should be preferrably DelPotro or Berdych(if he gets his head straight).
 
Heh. Gasquet awkwardly sitting in at 10. :D I'd like to see him do well. Haven't had a winning French player for a while.
 
DF, but it may be a brief stay as he has many points to defend after the AO. Nadal could claim some of those if he does go the SA CC route to recovery. Meanwhile, JMDP could jam it up even tighter with some early results.
 
Ferrer after Nadal fails to get past the 4th round of the Aussie Open. Losing Finalist points has to push Ferrer to the 4th position.
 
jaggy said:
Ferrer seems likely I suppose though I would hope it would be someone totally unexpected.
Click to expand...

only if nadals injury is so bad that he has to take a longer break.

if the top4 are all fit there is no Player who can challenge them. fed is slightly past his prime but even with another 5% drop of Performance he would still be better then the other guys outside the top4. there is just a huge gap between the top4 and the rest.
 
jrs said:
Ferrer and Del Potro in - Nadal & Federer out
Click to expand...

Ferru should get back into the top 4. He deserves it,
nobody works harder with so little weapons. Delpo could break back in if Ferrer flattens out towards the end of the year...the big guy has nearly recovered to top form.Berdych is overdue again to make a big final.
Nadal will take a while to recover from his injuries...Federer is not going anywhere, already taking steps to keep himself in shape for the big matches.

One thing is certain: there will be some surprises at the Oz Open.:)
 
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