Who is winning when the serve comes back?

[Rovesciarete]

Great article by Jeff about Mensik, with a highly interesting graph.

On top we see players with a strong combination of rally skills. On the right we have great 'decent serve' with 'big follow-up' players.

The position of Mensik stirred the curiosity of Jeff and I also find Cerundolo's and Rublev's fascinating. Jakub at 19 is the opposite of teenage Jannik. While the latter got little help from the first serve the former relies largely on it to win sets. Tien looks likely a bit like young Sinner.

Djokovic and Alcaraz achieved roughly the same outcome in a different way, Fonseca has a logical bias towards second serve success.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Nole needs to break the serve. The mensik guy might become a feared bot in the future. But his break rate is 21% somehow for 2025.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Nole needs to break the serve. The mensik guy might become a feared bot in the future. But his break rate is 21% somehow for 2025.

Is that a good break rate?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Is that a good break rate?

You say

 

[DjokoLand]

Is that a good break rate?

Depends, against Baez on clay probably not but against Opelka on HC it is immense.

It’s hard to compare return stats as the South Americans that play all the 250’s on clay over say HC or Grass events are surely going to inflate their return just based on being on clay often

 

[Cabeza del Demonio]

Great article by Jeff about Mensik, with a highly interesting graph.

On top we see players with a strong combination of rally skills. On the right we have great 'decent serve' with 'big follow-up' players.

The position of Mensik stirred the curiosity of Jeff and I also find Cerundolo's and Rublev's fascinating. Jakub at 19 is the opposite of teenage Jannik. While the latter got little help from the first serve the former relies largely on it to win sets. Tien looks likely a bit like young Sinner.

Djokovic and Alcaraz achieved roughly the same outcome in a different way, Fonseca has a logical bias towards second serve success.

Side note, but look how far ahead of the pack Sinner is. That's dominance right there.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Side note, but look how far ahead of the pack Sinner is. That's dominance right there.

Indeed. Jannik moved more right than up over the years, while Carlos has struggled more to do so.

Jeff's Hubi-Jakub comparision seems quite apt although, the latter has necessarily more room to grow. Both rely largely on their excellent first strike tennis.

Miami was of course Hurkacz's first master title, beating a rising talent with a terrible first serve in the final.

P.S: The Present and Future of Jannik Sinner in early 2021 after that Miami run was the first Tennis Abstract podcast I listened to. Holds up better than ever.

Like I say, Sinner is playing more of a plus three game. And if you can prevent him from executing his strategy, you can force him into his backhand corner. You can force him to rely on some imperfect footwork.”

Loved that exchange between Bialik and Sackmann:

“On the other hand, we know about the very best players of all time late in their careers, fine tuning something about their serve and getting more out of it, at least temporarily. I'm talking about like Rafa and Djokovic at various Grand Slams that they won."

.....

"Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned the presidents of Rafa and Djokovic because I know you're not seriously making a projection based on that set of comparable players, but that would be the most extreme form of selection bias. Like you're saying, if he turns out to be one of the best players of all time, he will do this thing that will make him the best player of all time. Again, I know that's not your argument, but it's interesting that that's what sets them apart.”

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

The young Mensik ranks at the very bottom on second serve return in play.
Winning only 40% on his second serve.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Nole needs to break the serve. The mensik guy might become a feared bot in the future. But his break rate is 21% somehow for 2025.

In the service rating he is 48th with 80.6 games won, therefore lower than the position he occupies in the return rating (30th).

But in general what do you expect that someone who was ranked 54th in the ATP ranking before this Miami tournament had better data?
(ATP has yet to insert the data of this Miami tournament into the database)

In my opinion he has an excellent balance between service games and return games.

When he reaches his peak he will probably win over 90% of his service games, and it will be enough for him to rise to around 25% in return games to be a player consistently in the top 3/5.

 

[nolefam_2024]

The young Mensik ranks at the very bottom on second serve return in play.
Winning only 40% on his second serve.

Yes but that won't matter if he serves like yesterday.

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