It is hilarious people are dissing anyone who dares picking Serena, yet some of the same ones are picking Azarenka. While given the current womens field I would not discount Azarenka as having an outside shot to win this years French, and wouldnt be shocked if she did, but based on what other than Serena hateorade are her chances objectively better than Serena. Yeah Serena hasnt made it past the French quarters in a long time, often losing to people like Henin and Kuznetsova, the best clay courters of the last decade who are completely done now (either officialy or practically speaking); but Azarenka has NEVER made it past the RG quarters, and only made it there 2 out of 7 appearances, or if you want more recent stats only 1 of the last 3 as well.
Atleast Serena often reaches that stage and keeps losing a tough match to the eventual winner often. Azarenka is almost always going out in the early rounds; and Serena is the one winning Premier titles on clay the last few years, not Azarenka.
When you analyze Serena's French Open losses since 2002 most arent bad at all and easily explainable:
2003- lost super tough 3 setter to eventual winner and best clay couter by far of last 15 years, Justine Henin, and we all know what happened in that match when Serena was up 4-2, 30-0 although on this Serena hating forum I know that will be downplayed.
2004- lost tough 3 setter to Capriati, a former RG and Olympic Clay Champion and better clay courter than anyone still playing decent tennis today (other than maybe Serena herself), and one of Serena's toughest career matchups.
2005-2006- DNP
2007- lost in quarters to Henin. Henin not only dominated clay in the 2000s, but this was her best year ever which she totally dominated in general.
2008- OK a bad and inexplicable loss. The first one really.
2009- lost tough 3 setter to eventual winner Kuznetsova in quarters, squandering 3-1 3rd set lead.
2010- lost extremely tough 3 setter to Sam Stosur in quarters after having match point. Stosur, despite the shock finals loss, was by far the player of this years French, and beat Henin more easily than she had beaten Serena in the previous round, and went on to club Jankovic who was having a great clay season.
2011- DNP
2012- ok the 2nd inexplicable bad loss. This is the one she really dropped the ball I admit. It was totally her French to win, especialy with her pigeon Sharapova winning it in the end.
So of the last 10 years you have 3 DNPs, 3 losses to retired clay greats (Henin, Capriati), 2 losses to players who are on decline and no longer factors (Kuznetsova, Stosur), and only 2 truly bad losses. I could go through Azarenka's French Open history by comparision except it is a total joke for the most part and not even worth the effort. Lets just be kind and note her all time shining efforts at RG are a 3 set loss to Safina, and a 2 set smackdown at the quarterfinal stage by Na in her title year.